Matthew Turner, PhDPam Lauer, MPH

How Ready Are We? Meeting the Health Care Needs of Texas’ Aging

Population

• Describe how Texas’ growing elderly population impacts the state’s future health care needs

• Examine the health care workforce currently devoted to treating the aged

• Identify specialties in which more practitioners will be needed

Objectives

• ↑ percent of Americans >65• ↑ lifespan• ↑ increased use of health care services

• ↑ chronic disease• ↑ comorbidity

Geriatric Care

• Special approach for diagnosing, treating and managing diseases and conditions in older adults

• Attention to common issues that are not disease specific– Falls, Incontinence, Dementia, etc

Geriatric Care

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 20380

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

Total Population Population 65+

Projected Population Growth in Texas

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 20380

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Projected 65+ Population Growth in Texas

20032005

20082010

20132015

20182020

20232025

20282030

20332035

20382040

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

USTexas

Percent of Population 65+

20032005

20082010

20132015

20182020

20232025

20282030

20332035

20382040

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

USTexas

Avg. Annual Growth Rate of 65+ Population

0.05 - 0.13

0.14 - 0.16

0.17 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.24

0.25 - 0.83

2008

0.05 - 0.13

0.14 - 0.16

0.17 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.24

0.25 - 0.83

2013

0.05 - 0.13

0.14 - 0.16

0.17 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.24

0.25 - 0.83

2018

0.05 - 0.13

0.14 - 0.16

0.17 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.24

0.25 - 0.83

2023

0.05 - 0.13

0.14 - 0.16

0.17 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.24

0.25 - 0.83

2028

0.05 - 0.13

0.14 - 0.16

0.17 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.24

0.25 - 0.83

2033

Texas Population Pyramids

2003 2008 2013

155

323

465

Increase in Texas PCPs with Geriatric Specialty

0.2% 6.7%

12.5%

18.5%

12.5%8.8%

12.9%

11.4%

16.6% 26-3031-3536-4041-4546-5051-5556-6061-65>65

Age Distribution of PCPs with Geriatric Specialty

!( 1 - 3

!( 4 - 8

!( 9 - 20

!( 21 - 60

!( 61 - 106

Primary Care Physicians with Specialty in Geriatrics

2008 2013

45

75Chart Title

Increase in Geriatric Psychiatristsin Texas

4.0%

9.3%

14.7%

9.3%

13.3%10.7%

18.7%

20.0%31-3536-4041-4546-5051-5556-6061-65>65

Age Distribution of Geriatric Psychiatrists

5.3%

10.7%

28.0%56.0%

BlackHispanicOtherWhite

Ethnicity Distribution of Geriatric Psychiatrists

!( 1

!( 2 - 3

!( 4 - 6

!( 7 - 11

!( 12 - 23

Psychiatrists with Specialty in Geriatrics

2008 2013

5,647

6,444

Increase in Texas RNs with Geriatric Specialty

5.5%7.7%

9.7%

12.2%

11.4%

12.5%

15.5%

12.6%

13.0% <30

31-35

36-40

41-45

46-50

51-55

56-60

61-65

65>

Age Distribution of RNs with Geriatric Specialty

4%5%

13%

14%64%

UnknownOtherHispanicBlackWhite

Ethnicity Distribution of RNs with Geriatric Specialty

!( 1 - 14

!( 15 - 46

!( 47 - 104

!( 105 - 235

!( 236 - 720

RNs with Specialty in Geriatrics

2008 2013

318

267

Decrease in Geriatric APRNsin Texas

1.9% 4.9%

6.4%

12.0%

12.7%

13.1%

21.0%

18.0%

9.7%

0.4%

<3031-3536-4041-4546-5051-5556-6061-6565>Unknown

Age Distribution of Geriatric APRNs

!( 1 - 2

!( 3 - 6

!( 7 - 19

!( 20 - 34

!( 35 - 71

APRNs with Specialty in Geriatrics

2008 2013

13,821

17,167

Increase in Texas LVNs with Geriatric Specialty

15.4%

13.6%

14.3%

13.3%

10.9%

10.5%

10.3%

6.5%5.1%

<3031-3536-4041-4546-5051-5556-6061-6565>

Age Distribution of LVNs with Geriatric Specialty

2.2%

11.5%

17.8%

21.9%

46.6%

OtherUnknownHispanicBlackWhite

Ethnicity Distribution of LVNs with Geriatric Specialty

!( 1 - 48

!( 49 - 144

!( 145 - 283

!( 284 - 466

!( 467 - 1444

LVNs with Specialty in Geriatrics

2003 2008 2013

481.3 481.5510

Certified Nurse Aides in Texas (Practitioner to 100k Population)

2013 Elderly Populations

No Data

<650

650 - 1095

1096 - 1795

1795+

Certified Nurse Aides in Texas (Practitioner to 100k Population)

• Physicians and Nurses– Specializing in geriatrics– Specialties related to older adults

• Oncology• Cardiovascular

• Other members of the health care team– Pharmacists– Social Workers– Assistive personnel

Other Specialties Related to Care for Older Adults

So How Ready Are We?

Health Professions Resource Centerwww.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/hprc

hprc@dshs.texas.gov512-776-6541

Texas Center for Nursing Workforce Studieswww.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/cnws

tcnws@dshs.texas.gov512-776-6723