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Hypothetical Effects of Nuclear War

Eric Biehn

Math 89S, Duke University

November 1, 2016

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Introduction

In 2009, President Obama stated that “one nuclear weapon [exploding] in one city - be it

New York, Moscow, Islamabad, Mumbai, Tokyo, Tel Aviv, Paris or Prague - could kill

hundreds of thousands of people.  And no matter where it happens, there is no end to

what the consequences might be - for our global safety, security, our society, our

economy, to our ultimate survival” [2].  It is clear that nuclear weapons pose a very real

and frightening threat to our modern society. Therefore, it is important not to ignore the

possibility of this catastrophic situation. Reactions and effects of a nuclear attack must

be analyzed in order to prepare for such a situation.  This paper deals with many

hypothetical situations that could occur in the event of a nuclear attack.  A nuclear

attack could have such a wide range of effects that it is almost impossible to pinpoint

specific and exact outcomes.  As a result, many of the ideas discussed in this paper are

hypothetical scenarios that are based on facts, studies, current knowledge, and

examples from the previous atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Direct Effects of an Attack

There have been various studies proposing the effects of a nuclear bomb on a large,

urban city.  A notable example is “Article 36”, which studied the humanitarian

consequences of a nuclear detonation of the city of Manchester in the United Kingdom.

This particular study dealt with a 100 kiloton warhead, which they felt was an accurate

representation of the current nuclear weapons available today.  The study concluded

that 81,000 people would be directly killed, while 212,000 people would be injured [2].  It

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would be difficult to get aid and resources, because emergency services would be

affected by the lack of communication, staff, and power needed to operate emergency

facilities.  In addition, many hospitals and police stations would crumble due to the blast,

thus causing further problems.  The immediate radiation released from the bomb would

directly affect everyone in a 2 kilometer radius [2].  This particular study did not

investigate the effects of the nuclear fallout, however it noted that it would definitely

contribute to a large amount of fatalities.

It is important to note that this study is a conservative estimate, because in the event of

a nuclear assault, the attackers would most likely use more than one nuclear warhead if

they are willing to resort to nuclear force.  It is clear that the physical effects regarding

the loss of life and materials would be devastating.  In addition, worldwide and regional

factors would be greatly impacted.

Economic Impacts

A nuclear attack would have a global impact on the economy.  The entire world is

connected through its economy and trade.  The global economic collapse of 2008

illustrated how dependent separate economies are on each other. The financial sector

would take a toll as a result of a nuclear attack.  An immense amount of funding would

immediately be allocated to rescue missions, evacuations, decontamination efforts, etc.

The costs will continue to increase as time goes on and will peak decades after the

actual attack. There will be many disability claims and higher health sector costs, which

will make recovery a long-term issue [1].  In the Ukraine, 5-7% of government spending

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is still dedicated to programs and benefits resulting from the Chernobyl nuclear

accident.  

A likely target for an attack would be New York City.  The results of this attack would be

catastrophic, as it is theorized to have economic consequences of about 10 trillion

dollars.  This is equivalent to the United States’ yearly gross domestic product (GDP)

[1]. Nuclear war would cause a severe loss of life and destruction of resources

worldwide, and the target would most likely be a major city or urban development.  By

the year 2030, it is expected that around two-thirds of the world’s population will live in

cities [1].  Cities are the center of economic growth, and about 80% of the world’s GDP

is generated in cities [3].

A nuclear detonation in an urban area would additionally affect the industries within that

area.  After the attack, many people will be suffering from physical injury, disease,

psychological trauma, unemployment, and a variety of other factors.  Thus, the

productivity for the country will be greatly lowered.  Many industrial elements are

dependent on each other.  If certain elements crumble, they will directly affect others.

For example, if there is a lack of fuel, it would affect transportation because transporting

goods would be expensive and difficult.  A lack of transportation would make shipping

food much more difficult, therefore it would affect the population’s ability to get food.

This is one of the many scenarios for how various aspects of the economy intertwine

with one another.

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Figure 1

This diagram shows how many industrial practices are interwoven and dependent on

each other.

In addition, much of the city’s infrastructure would be ruined.  Roads, trains, and other

methods of transportation would be demolished.  Infrastructure is an essential element

to an economy.  It directly affects transportation, trade, communication, water, and

networks for fuel.  Thus, major damage to the infrastructure would have a severe impact

on the economy.

If a city was hit by a nuclear bomb, its power would be cut off.  A single nuclear weapon

exploding at a high altitude can lead to an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) [4].  Power

grids would pick up the EMP, which would cause a spike in voltage for the equipment

drawing power at the time of the explosion [6].  This is similar to how the voltage rises

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during a lightning strike; however, it would be 100 times faster which would make the

surge protectors useless.  Also, the electronic component could pick up the pulse and

generate internally induced currents, which would result in physical damage to the

equipment [6].  

Figure 2

This image shows the possible coverage of Electromagnetic Pulse effects based on the

altitude of nuclear detonation.

In the event of an EMP, the region the blast affected would be blacked out almost

instantly because the radiation caused by the explosion would travel at the speed of

light.  The interruption of the typical flow of communication and data flow would greatly

harm the economy [4].  American society depends on the power systems, electronics,

and information systems that would be ruined as a result of the EMP.  It would affect

means of getting food, water, and medical care to the citizens; trade; and the production

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of goods and services.  Many people would die in urban settings because of the lack of

basic necessities to sustain life.  It would also have economic implications.  For

example, ATM’s would stop working, and traders would not be able to access the

NASDAQ electronic exchange, thus affecting the local and global economy.

The United States has dealt with a smaller scale blackout that can be compared to the

potential effects of a nuclear-related EMP.  The Northeast Blackout that occurred in

August of 2003 involved a loss of power for over 50 million people as a result of a loss

of a 61,800 Mw electrical load [4].  Even though the blackout only lasted a few hours, it

was estimated to cost up to 10 billion dollars as a result of the food spoilage, disrupted

supply delivery, blackout protection costs, and much more.  This blackout is only a

minor comparison to what could happen in the result of an Electromagnetic Pulse

blackout.

Environmental Impact

The radioactive fallout from a nuclear attack would affect the environment and health of

a country, especially regarding food supply.  A study done in 2012 determined that a

nuclear war between India and Pakistan would lead to a decrease in rainfall for some of

the most important grain growing regions such as North America and Eurasia. This

would lead to a 50% decline in Chinese wheat production in the first year, 21% decline

of Chinese rice production over four years, and a 20% decline of US corn production

over five years [7].  The unavoidable spike in food prices would make food unattainable

for millions of people around the world who could not afford it.  Over 215 million people

would become malnourished as a result of their inability to purchase food [7].  This

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hypothetical war between India and Pakistan is also theorized to cause 6.6 teragrams of

black carbon aerosol particles to rise into the troposphere.  A ModelE study from the

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies found that, “A global average surface cooling

of -1.25°C persists for years, and after a decade the cooling is still -0.50°C” [7].  This

cooling would be a result of the particles in the troposphere preventing sunlight from

warming the Earth to the extent it does now.  A nuclear attack would have a global

impact on the environment that would have serious consequences for years to come.

Social Impact

An overlooked result of nuclear warfare is the social impacts that would result from a

potential attack, and there are many hypothetical examples that can be analyzed. A

nuclear attack would cause a lot of distress for a population. After the initial phase of

sorrow and mourning passes, this sadness could eventually turn into anger.  Citizens

will feel the need to retaliate against the country or group that initiated the first attack,

and this could lead to displacing this anger towards innocent people of a particular race

or identity [9].  Similar to the American mistrust towards the Japanese during World War

II, individuals could become hostile towards people who were not actually associated

with the attack.  For example, if a Muslim extremist group got their hands on a nuclear

weapon and used it on the United States, many U.S. Muslims would be unfairly

persecuted and discriminated against because people would feel the need to blame

others for this atrocity.  

If a nuclear warhead were to explode in a city, many public officials could be killed or

severely injured, thus leading to slower decision making.  In addition, there would be

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much political discourse among the figures that survived the attack.  It is very likely that

some of the political figures would be sheltered and therefore manage to survive the

attacks.  This could result in outrage from the general public who lost loved ones above

the ground.  As a result, a lot of political effort may be put into crowd control and

preventing violent acts of protest, and less time would be spent on policies regarding

help and aid [9].

There is a good chance that the population would become fragmented and form into

groups that would each have their own unique ways of coping with the disaster.  This

could include people of similar religious backgrounds, cultural backgrounds, or

ideological thinking.  The cooperation that would be needed to share the limited

resources among these groups may be unrealistic [9].  Thus, this post-impact society

could lead to hostility among citizens of the affected country.   

Psychological Impact

Many psychological effects of a nuclear attack can be hypothesized by the actual

reaction of the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the United States’ attack at the

tail end of World War II.  A major psychological impact that was observed after the

attack on Japan was the shift from normal life to overwhelming exposure to death [5].  In

order to deal with this horrible event, many citizens closed themselves off from the

reality of the situation.   They used this as a defense mechanism and were not as

productive because they were grieving and dealing with this tragedy.  In Nagasaki, there

was a high amount of mental stress exhibited by those who experienced the bombing.

Patients exposed to radiation had higher levels of neurosis compared to those who did

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not [8].  Many patients stated that they had physical damage when there were actually

no traces of physical harm on their body.  This is known as Deere’s hypothesis, which is

a post-war study suggesting that trauma involving physical suffering is more likely to

lead to somatization than those without trauma [8].  In today’s modern era, the mass

media would without a doubt cover the fallout of this attack, which would leave little

privacy for the victims and their families causing them to relive the tragedy.  

A nuclear attack would leave a psychological scar that would take years for the world to

overcome.

Conclusion

When it comes to hypothesizing on an act of nuclear aggression, there are a wide range

of possibilities and scenarios that can be analyzed.  The effects of an attack would lead

to a myriad of outcomes including extreme loss of life, economic impacts, environmental

impacts, social impacts, and psychological impacts. This is an issue that is difficult to

talk about, and many people choose to avoid it.  However, there is a possibility of a

nuclear threat in our society today, and we have to acknowledge the severe

consequences that would result from it.  

Sources

“Economic Impacts of Nuclear Weapons.” Article 36. March 2015. Web.1 Nov. 2016. [1]

“Manchester Detonation.” Article 36. Feb. 2015. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [2]

"Urban Development Overview." Urban Development Overview. World Bank,10 Oct.

2016. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [3]

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Foster, John. “EMP Attack.” 2004. Web.1 Nov. 2016. [4]

Lifton, Robert. “Psychological Effects of the Atomic Bombing.” Daedalus. 1963. Print. 1

Nov. 2016. [5]

Cochrane, Hal. “The Consequences of Nuclear War.” National Academy of Sciences.

1986. Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [6]

Helfand, Ira. “Nuclear Famine.” Physicians for Social Responsibility. November 2013.

Web. 1 Nov. 2016. [7]

Yeo, Dana. “Psychological Fallout of Atomic Bomb in Nagasaki.” Winter 2013. Web. 1

Nov. 2016. [8]

Galtung, Johan. “Social and Cultural Implications of Nuclear War.” April 1986. Web. 1

Nov. 2016. [9]