Math in the NewsIssue 89

Who Will Win Super Bowl XLVIII?

Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver is a slight favorite to win the Super Bowl against Seattle. But predictions are usually as good as the statistics that underlie the prediction. In this issue we look at the two team’s statistics. (Source: NFL.com.)

Super Bowl XLVIIIWe start by comparing the statistics of two key players: the Quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson

Rank PlayerCompletion Percentage Yds/G TD

1 Peyton Manning 68.3 342.3 552 Drew Brees 68.6 322.6 393 Matthew Stafford 58.5 290.6 294 Matt Ryan 67.4 282.2 265 Philip Rivers 69.5 279.9 326 Tom Brady 60.5 271.4 257 Andy Dalton 61.9 268.3 338 Carson Palmer 63.3 267.1 249 Ben Roethlisberger 64.2 266.3 2810 Ryan Tannehill 60.4 244.6 2411 Joe Flacco 59 244.5 1912 Tony Romo 63.9 255.2 3113 Andrew Luck 60.2 238.9 2314 Eli Manning 57.5 238.6 1815 Cam Newton 61.7 211.2 2416 Russell Wilson 63.1 209.8 26

Super Bowl XLVIIIAs you can see, Peyton Manning is not only in first place on several key statistics, he has a dominant position, especially compared to Russell Wilson. These statistics are from the Regular Season. Let’s look at them in more detail.

Rank PlayerCompletion Percentage Yds/G TD

1 Peyton Manning 68.3 342.3 552 Drew Brees 68.6 322.6 393 Matthew Stafford 58.5 290.6 294 Matt Ryan 67.4 282.2 265 Philip Rivers 69.5 279.9 326 Tom Brady 60.5 271.4 257 Andy Dalton 61.9 268.3 338 Carson Palmer 63.3 267.1 249 Ben Roethlisberger 64.2 266.3 2810 Ryan Tannehill 60.4 244.6 2411 Joe Flacco 59 244.5 1912 Tony Romo 63.9 255.2 3113 Andrew Luck 60.2 238.9 2314 Eli Manning 57.5 238.6 1815 Cam Newton 61.7 211.2 2416 Russell Wilson 63.1 209.8 26

Super Bowl XLVIIIThis is a box-and-whisker plot showing the completion percentage for all quarterbacks in the NFL who attempted at least 100 passes.

Super Bowl XLVIIIWe overlay the statistics for Manning and Wilson for comparison. As you can see, Manning was well above the median.

W M

Super Bowl XLVIIIThis is a box-and-whisker plot showing the yards/game for all quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes.

Super Bowl XLVIIIWe overlay the statistics for Manning and Wilson for comparison. As before, note Manning’s dominant position.

W M

Super Bowl XLVIIIFinally, here is a box-and-whisker plot showing the total number of touchdowns in the regular season. Note the outlier.

Super Bowl XLVIIIThe overlay of Manning’s and Wilson’s statistics shows that Manning accounts for the outlier.

W M

Super Bowl XLVIII

So why is Denver just a slight favorite over Seattle? As strong as Denver’s offense is, Seattle has an equally formidable defense. Let’s look at the statistics.

Super Bowl XLVIIIA good defense keeps the opposing team from not gaining many yards per game. These are the collective stats for the Regular Season showing the total number of yards defenses allowed. Note the outlier.

Super Bowl XLVIIIHere we overlay Seattle’s and Denver’s defenses. You can see that Seattle allowed the fewest yards per game and accounted for the outlier.

S D

Super Bowl XLVIIIRelated to the total yards allowed is the total number of points allowed. Here is a box-and-whisker plot for all the teams.

Super Bowl XLVIII

The overlay shows the statistics for Seattle and Denver.

S D

Super Bowl XLVIII

Based on the statistics you’ve seen, what is your prediction about the outcome of the Super Bowl?