materials and the environment (most recent update january 7, 2006)

Materials and the Environment

(Most recent update January 7, 2006)

• Solving Environmental Problems

• General Global Trends– Population

– Economy

• Raw Material Consumption Trends– Wood

– Other Materials

• Options to Wood Use

Solving Complex Problems Requires a Combination of:

• Rational thinking

• The use of realistic assumptions

• Global or systematic analysis

Environmental Problems

• Species loss

• Global warming

• Acid rain

• Ozone depletion

• Population growth

• Garbage/litter

• Desertification

• Tropical deforestation

• Urban sprawl

• Aquifer depletion

• Topsoil erosion

• Pollution of coastal waters

• Wetlands loss

PopulationPopulation

World Population 1850-1950

0123456789

10

Year

Billions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2002

World Population 1850-2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

81850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

Billions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2006.

World Population 1850-2050(Medium Projection of Growth Assumed After 2000)

0123456789

10

Year

Billions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2006.

Number of years to add each billion (year)

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

All of Human History

(1800)

123 (1930)

33 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

13 (2012)

16 (2028)

26 (2054)

Growth in Global Population

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium scenario), 2003.

All of recorded history

Millions

Annual Increase in World Population, 1951-2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2003. Data for 1990 through 2005 from U.S. Census Bureau, International Division.

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1936-1938

1946-1948

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

World Birth and Death Rates, 1936-2003

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Rate of Population Increase - 2006

Time Unit Population Increase

Year 74,281,173

Month 6,190,098

Week 1,428,484

Day 205,510

Hour 8,480

Minute 141

Second 2.4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2006.

Average Annual Rate of Population Growth for the World, 1950 – 2020 – Continuing Decline

Since 1970

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Per

cen

t

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2004.

Medium Projections of Population Growth(billions)

2000 2050 2100

World 6.1 9.2 11.1


The world population will increase 60 to 90 percent within the lifetime of a

child born today

Growth of U.S. Population, 1776- 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006.

Growth of U.S. Population, 1776- 2100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

History

Projection

Medium Projections of Population Growth

(world population in billions, U.S. population in millions)

2000 2050 2100

World 6.1 9.2 11.1

United States 282 420 571


Growth of Minnesota Population, 1950- 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1975 2000 2025

Growth of Minnesota Population, 1850- 2100

0100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000

10000000

History

ProjectionProjection

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006.

Medium Projections of Population Growth

(world population in billions, U.S. and Minnesota populations in millions)

2000 2050 2100

World 6.1 9.2 11.1

United States 282 420 571

Minnesota 4.9 7.1 9.4


World and U.S. populations will grow substantially within the lifetime of a

child born today

No less significant, the world will be faced in the 21st century with the challenge of providing food, fuel, shelter, and clothing for a much

larger population.

EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy

Gross Domestic Product:

The value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a

nation

Gross World Product:

The sum of all Gross Domestic Product values expressed in a

common currency.

Gross World Product, 1970-2004

05

101520253035

Trillions of 1990 U.S. dollars

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, 2005.

An increase of 174 percent. World population increased about 72

percent over the same period.

Annual Growth in Gross Domestic Product for Nations Classified by Average Incomes,

1980-1990 and 1990-1998

Income Category 1981-1990 1990-1998Low income 6.6 7.3Low income excl. China and India 4.1 3.6Middle income 2.6 1.9 Lower middle income -- -1.3 Upper middle income 2.7 3.9Low and middle income 3.5 3.3 East Asia and Pacific 8.0 8.1 Europe and Central Asia -- -4.3 Latin America and Caribbean 1.6 3.7 Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 3.0 South Asia 5.7 5.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.8 2.2High income 3.1 2.1World 3.2 2.4

Source: World Bank, 2001

China’s Gross Domestic Product(Exchange Rate Valuation)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Bil

lio

ns

of

1987

U.S

. D

oll

ars

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2002.

It is a virtual certainty that

consumption of raw materials globally

will increase substantially in the

future.

Considering the combined effect of population growth and economic

growth within developing nations, demand for new housing units globally

over the next 50 years is likely to exceed one billion.

How in the world is society going to be able to pull this off and wind up with an environment that most of us would

for our children and grand-children?agree is acceptable for our

Raw Material Raw Material Consumption Consumption

TrendsTrends

Raw Material Raw Material Consumption Consumption

TrendsTrends

U.S. Growth in Basic Raw Materials Consumption, 1970-2004

(Population growth during this period: 1.43x)

Wood Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics Products

1.00x 1.80x 1.85x 5.28x 1.38x

Source: Data for wood from USFS (2005); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006); and for plastics from the National Commission on Materials

Policy (1975) and the APC Plastics Industry Council (2006).

World Growth in Basic Raw Materials Consumption, 1970-2004

(Population growth during this period: 1.72x)

Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics Wood

1.60x 3.50x 3.00x 6.83x 1. 27x

Source: Data for wood from FAO (2006); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006); and for plastics from the

Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe (2002) and from Plastics Today magazine (2005).

Wood is a principal raw material in the world today.

Annual World Consumption of Various Raw Materials, 2004

Billion Metric tons Billion m3

Roundwood 1.679 3.4Industrial roundwood 0.794 1.6Cement 2.000 1.9Steel 0.949 0.11Plastics 0.205 0.18Aluminum 0.029 0.01

Source: Data for wood from FAO (2006); for cement, aluminum, and steel from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006);and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in

Europe (2002) and from Plastics Today magazine (2005).

Annual U.S. Consumption of Various Raw Materials, 2004

Million Metric tons Million m3

Roundwood 301 556Industrial roundwood 277 512Forest products (wd only) 180 296Cement 121 110Steel 125 158Plastics 39.1 34.5Aluminum 6.3 2.2

Source: Data for wood from USFS (2005); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006); and for plastics from the National Commission on

Materials Policy (1975) and the APC Plastics Industry Council (2006).

U.S. Demand For Wood and Wood Products, 1800 - 2002

(Million Cubic Feet, Roundwood Equivalent)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1800

1813

1826

1839

1852

1865

1878

1891

1904

1917

1930

1943

1956

1969

1982

1995

Plywd/VenPulpLumberOther Ind.Fuelwood

Source: Howard, J. 2004. U.S.D.A.- Forest Service, USFPL.

Global Wood Harvest, 1950 to 2004, with Projection to 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2004 2010

Mill

ion

m3

Source: FAO (2005)

Global Wood Harvest, 1950 to 2004

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2004

Indust. WoodFuelwood

Mill

ion

m3

Source: FAO (2005)

Global Wood Harvest and Population, 1950 to 2004

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

HarvestPopulation

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2004

Har

vest

(M

illio

n m

3 )

Source: FAO (2005); U.S. Census Bureau, Int’l Division (2005)

Pop

ula

tion

(B

illio

ns)

0

2

4

6

8

The Amount of Biosphere Per Person

Grows Smaller

As The Population Grows . . .

The Same Is True of Forests

Forests Then and Now - World

• In 1800– World population was 1 billion– There were about 11 acres of forests for

each person in the world

Forests Then and Now - World

• In 1800– World population was 1 billion– There were about 11 acres (4.5 ha.) of

forests for each person in the world

• Today– World population is over 6 billion– There are about 1.4 acres (0.6 ha.) of forest

for each person in the world

Forests Then, Now, and Future - World

By the end of the next century

– World population is expected to reach 10 to 11 billion

– Even with zero loss of forests over the next 100 years, the amount of forest land for each person in the world will shrink to 0.7 to 0.8 acres (or about 0.3 ha.)

Forests Then and Now – U.S.

Year Population Forest Area (million ac.)

Forest Area/ Capita (acres)

1785 3,000,000 1,044 348

1850 23,300,000 926 40

1910 77,000,000 730 9.5

2000 281,000,000 747 2.7

Forests Then, Now, and Future – U.S.

Year

Population Forest Area (million ac.)

Forest Area/Capita (acres)

1785 3,000,000 1,044 348

1850 23,300,000 926 40

1910 77,000,000 730 9.5

2000 281,000,000 747 2.7

2100 571,000,000 747 1.3

Forests Then, Now, and Future – Minnesota

Year

Population Forest Area (million ac.)

Forest Area/Capita (acres)

1950 2.99 million 17.4 5.7

2000 4.91 million 14.8 3.1

2100 8.90 million 14.8 1.6

Sharp reductions in forest land/ capita virtually ensure escalating conflict

over forest use, and raise the question of where needed wood supplies will

come from in the future.

U.S. Trends in RawMaterial Procurement

The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials used to support our economy and lifestyle.

The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials used to support our economy and lifestyle.

• Most metals• Portland and masonry cement• Petroleum (the basis for plastics)• Wood and wood products

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2004, and by Major

Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesColumbium 100 Brazil, Canada, Estonia, GermanyMica (natural) 100 India, Belgium, China, GermanyManganese 100 S. Africa, Gabon, Australia, FranceGraphite 100 China, Mexico, Canada, BrazilStrontium 100 Mexico, GermanyBauxite/Alumina 100 Australia, Jamaica, Guinea, SurinameFluorspar 100 China, S. Africa, MexicoYttrium 100 China, Japan, Austria, NetherlandsThallium 100 Belgium, France, Russia, UKRubidium 100 Canada


Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesAsbestos 100 CanadaQuartz (crystal) 100 Brazil, Germany, MadagascarArsenic (trioxide) 100 China, Chile, Morocco, Mexico Indium 100 China, Canada, Japan, FranceRare earth metals 100 China, France, Japan, EstoniaRubidium 100 CanadaVanadium 100 Czech Rep., S. Africa, Canada, ChinaGemstones 99 Israel, India, Belgium

Platinum Group 91 S. Africa, UK, Germany, CanadaBismuth 90 Belgium, Mexico, China, UK


Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesTin 88 Peru, China, Bolivia, BrazilStone (dimension) 85 Italy, Canada, India, SpainDiamond (indust) 85 Ireland, Switzerland, UK, RussiaTitanium (sponge) 85 Kazakhstan, Japan, RussiaPalladium 81 Russia, S. Africa, UK, BelgiumTantalum 80 Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, ChinaBarium (Barite) 79 China, IndiaRhenium 79 Chile, Kazakhstan, MexicoCobalt 76 Finland, Norway, Russia, CanadaIodine 74 Chile, Japan, Russia


Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesTungsten 73 China, CanadaChromium 72 S. Africa, Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe,

RussiaPotash 70 Canada, Belarus, Russia, GermanyMagnesium Metal 68 Canada, China, Russia, IsraelTitanium concentrates 65 S. Africa, Australia, Canada, UkrainePetroleum 58 Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico,

Venezuela, NigeriaSilicon 56 S. Africa, Norway, Brazil, RussiaZinc 56 Canada, Mexico, Peru


Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesBeryllium 55 Kazakhstan, Japan, Brazil, SpainSilver 54 Mexico, Canada, UK, PeruLithium >50 Chile, ArgentinaNickel 49 Canada, Russia, Norway, AustraliaMagnesium Cpds 48 China, Australia, Canada, AustriaCopper 43 Canada, Chile, Peru, MexicoAluminum 41 Canada, Russia, Venezuela, MexicoDiamond (dust, grit) 40 Ireland, China, UkraineNitrogen (fixed) 38 Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, RussiaLumber (softwood) 37 Canada, EU, Chile, N. Zealand, Mex.


Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesMica 35 Canada, India, China, FinlandGarnet (industrial) 34 Australia, India, ChinaPumice 26 Greece, Italy, TurkeyPerlite 23 GreeceGypsum 26 Canada, Mexico, SpainSalt 20 Canada, Chile, Mexico, The BahamasCement (Port/msry) 23 Canada, Thailand, China, VenezuelaSulfur 20 Canada, Mexico, VenezuelaIron and steel 18 EEC, Canada, Mexico, S. Korea


Foreign Sources

Material % Imported Principal Foreign SourcesWood/Wd. Prod. 12 Canada, China, Indonesia, Finland,

N. Zealand, Chile, BrazilIron ore 8 Canada, Brazil, Australia, ChilePhosphate rock 6 MoroccoIron and steel slag 5 Canada, France, Italy, JapanTalc 1 China, Canada, France, Japan

Also significant import dependency for Arsenic, Cesium, Gallium, Germanium, Leather, Natural Rubber, Selenium, Wool, Zirconium.

Source: US Geological Survey, 2004.

The United States is also a net importer of durable and non-durable

goods of all kinds.

The United States has been a net importer of wood and wood products

for over 35 years.

5757

0

2

4

6

2

0

2

4

6

2

0

2

4

6

2

0

2

4

6

2

0

2

4

6

2

0

2

4

6

2

0

2

4

6

2

Northeast

0

2

4

6

2

Alaska

Pacific Southwest

PacificNorthwest

Intermountain

North Central

South Central

Southeast

Growth

Removals

Growing Stock Consumption

Non-growing Stock Consumption

Bill

ion

Cu

bic

Fee

t

0

5

10

15

20

25All U.S.

Source: Shifley and Sullivan, U.S.F.S. - North Central Experiment Station (2002).

Timber Growth, Removals, and Consumption by Region

Environmental Impacts of Materials Production

Life Cycle Inventory (LCI)

Examination of all measurable:

•Raw material inputs

•Products and by-products

•Emissions

•Effluents

•Wastes

Life Cycle Inventory (LCI)Typically involves all stages in production, use, and disposal, including:

•Extraction

•Transportation

•Primary processing

•Conversion to semi-finished products

•Incorporation into finished products

•Maintenance

•Disposal/reuse

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)

Examines costs associated with specific environmental burdens:

•Cleanup costs

•Health impacts

•Landscape impacts

•Environmental impacts

Consider for a moment the environmental impacts of decisions

regarding the construction of a residential home.

Relative Energy Consumption to Produce a Ton of:

Material Energy

Aluminum 70

Steel 17

Brick 3.1

Concrete Blocks 3.0

Dry Lumber 1.0

Source: CORRIM I, National Research Council, 1976.

Comparative Energy Consumed in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior

Wall (GJ)

Source: Athena Sustainable Materials Institute, 1993.

Wood Stud Wall Steel Stud Wall

Extraction 0.7 1.2

Manufacturing 2.1 9.7

Construction 0.6 0.6

Total 3.4 11.5

Comparative Energy Consumed in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior

Wall (GJ)


Wood Stud Wall Steel Stud Wall

Extraction 0.7 1.2

Manufacturing 2.1 9.7

Construction 0.6 0.6

Total 3.4 11.53.4x

What about an exterior wall?

What if the steel has 50% recycled content?

Net Carbon Emissions in Producing a Ton of:Net Carbon Emissions

Material (kg C/metric ton)Framing lumber -460Concrete 45Concrete block 49Brick 148Glass 630Steel 1,090Aluminum 2,400Plastic 2,810

Source: Honey and Buchanan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 1992.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Various Components in a Typical House

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

TimberSteelConcrete Slab

House Frame Floor Wall

Net

Car

bon

Em

issi

on (

kg

C)

Source: Honey and Buchanan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 1992.

Comparative Emissions in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior Wall

Emission/Effluent Wood Wall Steel Wall

CO2 (kg) 305 965CO (g) 2,450 11,800SOX (g) 400 3,700NOX (g) 1,150 1,800Particulates (g) 100 335VOCs (g) 390 1,800Methane (g) 4 45


Comparative Effluents in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior Wall

Emission/Effluent Wood Wall Steel Wall

Suspended solids (g) 12,180 495,640Non-ferrous metals (mg) 62 2,532Cyanide (mg) 99 4,051Phenols (mg) 17,715 725,994Ammonia (mg) 1,310 53,665Halogenated organics (mg) 507 20,758Oil and grease (mg) 1,421 58,222Sulphides (mg) 13 507


It all comes down to this:

Although periodic harvesting of forests is viewed as environmentally undesirable in some circles, failure to responsibly harvest triggers a number

of undesirable environmental impacts. These impacts are often quite

substantial.

Options to Domestic Harvest of Timber

• Shift to use of raw materials other than wood.

• Use wood, but import needs.

• Reduce the rate of raw material consumption/recycle.

Shift to Non-Wood Raw Materials• A massive substitution would be

necessary to significantly impact wood use.

• Needs are already largely imported.• Gathering and processing of potential

substitute materials is relatively energy intensive, with large environmental impacts.

Use Wood, But Import Needs

Importing Raw Material Needs as a National Environmental Strategy . . .

• Is unethical

• Has adverse implications for– Global environment

– Balance of trade

– Long term economic security

Reduce the Rate of Raw Material Consumption . . .

Probably a good idea, at least in U.S., but . .

• World population is likely to double within the relatively near term

• Large segments of the world population are seeking to consume more, not less.

• Population gains in developing countries translate to relatively larger increases in demand for raw materials.

Summary

Summary

• Substantial increases in population are certain.

• Substantial increases in global raw material demand will occur.

• Competition for basic raw materials will continue to increase.

Summary

• Figuring out how to provide a billion new housing units for a growing population while also protecting the environment will a non-trivial undertaking.

Summary

• Wood will be clearly be an important part of the sustainability equation. In fact, for the sake of the environment, a strong case can be made that we should use as much wood as possible.

materials and the environment (most recent update january 7, 2006)

Documents

census bureau

population reference

world population prospects

growth of minnesota

rate of population increase

international division

international programs

medium projection of