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Matching and Inequality in the World Economy Arnaud Costinot Jonathan Vogel MIT & Columbia March 2009 Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 1 / 33

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Page 1: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Matching and Inequality in the World Economy

Arnaud Costinot Jonathan Vogel

MIT & Columbia

March 2009

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 1 / 33

Page 2: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?

Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 3: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 4: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 5: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)

2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 6: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)

3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 7: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)

4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 8: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 9: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Question

Question: How do changes in factor supply or factor demand a¤ectfactor prices and factor allocation in high-dimensional environments?Why do we care about high-dimensional environments?

1 Large changes in inequality and in factor allocation occur at high levelsof disaggregation

1 Top income inequality, e.g. Piketty and Saez (2003)2 Income polarization, e.g. Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008)3 Job polarization, e.g. Goos and Manning (2003)4 Within and between- inequality, e.g. Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993)

2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skillpremium) re�ect average changes over a large number of factors

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 2 / 33

Page 10: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Weak assumptions, weak results

Approach #1: Start from a standard neoclassical model with lowdimensionality (e.g. Heckscher-Ohlin) and increase it

Problems with Approach #1:

1 Predictions are unintuitive: Is the number of goods greater than thenumber of factors in the economy?

2 Predictions are weak, e.g. Jones and Scheinkman�s (1977) �Friendsand Enemies� result states that a rise in the price of some good causesan even larger proportional increase in the price of some factor

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 3 / 33

Page 11: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Weak assumptions, weak results

Approach #1: Start from a standard neoclassical model with lowdimensionality (e.g. Heckscher-Ohlin) and increase it

Problems with Approach #1:

1 Predictions are unintuitive: Is the number of goods greater than thenumber of factors in the economy?

2 Predictions are weak, e.g. Jones and Scheinkman�s (1977) �Friendsand Enemies� result states that a rise in the price of some good causesan even larger proportional increase in the price of some factor

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 3 / 33

Page 12: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Weak assumptions, weak results

Approach #1: Start from a standard neoclassical model with lowdimensionality (e.g. Heckscher-Ohlin) and increase it

Problems with Approach #1:1 Predictions are unintuitive: Is the number of goods greater than thenumber of factors in the economy?

2 Predictions are weak, e.g. Jones and Scheinkman�s (1977) �Friendsand Enemies� result states that a rise in the price of some good causesan even larger proportional increase in the price of some factor

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 3 / 33

Page 13: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Weak assumptions, weak results

Approach #1: Start from a standard neoclassical model with lowdimensionality (e.g. Heckscher-Ohlin) and increase it

Problems with Approach #1:1 Predictions are unintuitive: Is the number of goods greater than thenumber of factors in the economy?

2 Predictions are weak, e.g. Jones and Scheinkman�s (1977) �Friendsand Enemies� result states that a rise in the price of some good causesan even larger proportional increase in the price of some factor

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 3 / 33

Page 14: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:

1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 15: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:

1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 16: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 17: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 18: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)

Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 19: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)

Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 20: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

How to Answer this Question?Strong assumptions, strong results

Approach #2: Directly start from an assignment model with highdimensionality (e.g. Roy)

Problems with Approach #2:1 General results focus on cross-sectional predictions: PAM (Becker1973, Shimer and Smith 2000, Legros and Newman 2002)

2 Comparative statics use strong functional form assumptions on:

Production function, e.g. Teulings (1995), Garicano andRossi-Hansberg (2006)Distribution of factors, e.g. Kremer and Maskin (2003), Antras,Garicano and Rossi Hansberg (2006), Gabaix and Landier (2008)Utility function, e.g. Teulings ( 2005), Blanchard and Willman (2008),Tervyo (2008)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 4 / 33

Page 21: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:

1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environmentsO¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoringBroaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 22: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environmentsO¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoringBroaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 23: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environmentsO¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoringBroaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 24: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environmentsO¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoringBroaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 25: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environments

O¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoringBroaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 26: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environmentsO¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoring

Broaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 27: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

This Paper

Contribution:1 Develop concepts and techniques to do robust monotonecomparative statics in a Roy-like assignment model

Deepen our understanding of an important class of models in the laborand trade literature

2 Use results to revisit consequences of globalization on factor pricesand factor allocation in high-dimensional environments

Go from weak to strong predictions even in such environmentsO¤er a unifying perspective on North-South trade, North-North trade,and o¤shoringBroaden the scope of standard trade theory to discuss phenomena suchas pervasive changes in inequality and wage and job polarization

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 5 / 33

Page 28: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Roadmap of the Talk

1 The Closed Economy2 Comparative Statics in the Closed Economy3 The World Economy4 Technological Change in the World Economy

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 6 / 33

Page 29: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

The Basic Environment

A set of intermediate goods/tasks with skill-intensity σ 2 Σ � [σ, σ]A set of workers with skill s 2 S � [s, s ]V (s) > 0 is the inelastic supply of workers with skill s

Good and labor markets are perfectly competitive

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 7 / 33

Page 30: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

The Basic Environment (Cont.)

Workers are perfect substitutes in the production of each task:

Y (σ) =Zs2S

A (s, σ) L (s, σ) ds

A (s, σ) > 0 is strictly log-supermodular:

A (s, σ)A (s, σ0)

>A (s 0, σ)A (s 0, σ0)

, for all s > s 0 and σ > σ0

Output of the �nal good is given by the following CES aggregator:

Y =�Z

σ2ΣB (σ) [Y (σ)]

ε�1ε dσ

� εε�1

B (σ) > 0 is an exogenous technological parameter

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 8 / 33

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De�nition of a Competitive Equilibrium

A competitive equilibrium is a set of functions (Y , L, p,w) such that:

1 Final good producers maximize pro�t

Y (σ) = I � [p (σ) /B (σ)]�ε

2 Intermediate good producers maximize pro�t

p (σ)A (s, σ)� w (s) � 0, for all s 2 Sp (σ)A (s, σ)� w (s) = 0, for all s 2 S such that L (s, σ) > 0

3 The intermediate market clears

Y (σ) =Zs2S

A (s, σ) L (s, σ) ds, for all σ 2 Σ

4 The labor market clears

V (s) =Z

σ2ΣL (s, σ) dσ, for all σ 2 S

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 9 / 33

Page 32: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Properties of a Competitive Equilibrium

Lemma 1 In a competitive equilibrium, there exists an increasing bijectionM : S ! Σ such that L(s, σ) > 0 if and only if M (s) = σ

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 10 / 33

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Properties of a Competitive Equilibrium (Cont.)

Lemma 2 In a competitive equilibrium, M and w satisfy

dMds

=A [s,M (s)]V (s)

I � fp [M (s)] /B [M (s)]g�ε (1)

d lnw (s)ds

=∂ lnA [s,M (s)]

∂s(2)

with M (s) = σ, M (s) = σ, and p [M (s)] = w (s) /A [s,M (s)].

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 11 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceDe�nition

De�nition V is skill-abundant relative to V 0, denoted V �a V 0, if

V (s)V (s 0)

� V 0 (s)V 0 (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

VÝsÞV vÝsÞ

ssCostinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 12 / 33

Page 35: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceMatching

Lemma 3 Suppose V �a V 0. Then M 0 (s) � M (s) for all s 2 S

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞ

MÝsÞM vÝsÞ

From a task standpoint: worker downgrading

From a worker standpoint: task upgrading

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 13 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceSketch of Proof

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞMÝsÞM vÝsÞ

s1 s2

1 M 0 (s1) = M (s1) = σ1, M 0 (s2) = M (s2) = σ2, andM 0s (s1)

M 0s (s2)

< Ms (s1)Ms (s2)

2 Equation (1) =) V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

> V (s2)V (s1)

Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

3 V 0 �a V =) V (s2)V (s1)

� V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

4 Equation (2) + zero pro�ts =) d ln pdσ = � ∂ lnA[M�1(σ),σ]

∂σ

5 M�1 (σ) < M 0�1 (σ) for σ 2 (σ1, σ2) + A log-spm ) p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

6p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

+ CES ) Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

� Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 14 / 33

Page 37: Matching and Inequality in the World Economy · 2 Large changes occurring at low levels of disaggregation (e.g. skill premium) re⁄ect average changes over a large number of factors

Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceSketch of Proof

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞMÝsÞM vÝsÞ

s1 s2

1 M 0 (s1) = M (s1) = σ1, M 0 (s2) = M (s2) = σ2, andM 0s (s1)

M 0s (s2)

< Ms (s1)Ms (s2)

2 Equation (1) =) V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

> V (s2)V (s1)

Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

3 V 0 �a V =) V (s2)V (s1)

� V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

4 Equation (2) + zero pro�ts =) d ln pdσ = � ∂ lnA[M�1(σ),σ]

∂σ

5 M�1 (σ) < M 0�1 (σ) for σ 2 (σ1, σ2) + A log-spm ) p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

6p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

+ CES ) Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

� Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 14 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceSketch of Proof

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞMÝsÞM vÝsÞ

s1 s2

1 M 0 (s1) = M (s1) = σ1, M 0 (s2) = M (s2) = σ2, andM 0s (s1)

M 0s (s2)

< Ms (s1)Ms (s2)

2 Equation (1) =) V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

> V (s2)V (s1)

Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

3 V 0 �a V =) V (s2)V (s1)

� V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

4 Equation (2) + zero pro�ts =) d ln pdσ = � ∂ lnA[M�1(σ),σ]

∂σ

5 M�1 (σ) < M 0�1 (σ) for σ 2 (σ1, σ2) + A log-spm ) p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

6p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

+ CES ) Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

� Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 14 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceSketch of Proof

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞMÝsÞM vÝsÞ

s1 s2

1 M 0 (s1) = M (s1) = σ1, M 0 (s2) = M (s2) = σ2, andM 0s (s1)

M 0s (s2)

< Ms (s1)Ms (s2)

2 Equation (1) =) V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

> V (s2)V (s1)

Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

3 V 0 �a V =) V (s2)V (s1)

� V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

4 Equation (2) + zero pro�ts =) d ln pdσ = � ∂ lnA[M�1(σ),σ]

∂σ

5 M�1 (σ) < M 0�1 (σ) for σ 2 (σ1, σ2) + A log-spm ) p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

6p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

+ CES ) Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

� Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 14 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceSketch of Proof

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞMÝsÞM vÝsÞ

s1 s2

1 M 0 (s1) = M (s1) = σ1, M 0 (s2) = M (s2) = σ2, andM 0s (s1)

M 0s (s2)

< Ms (s1)Ms (s2)

2 Equation (1) =) V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

> V (s2)V (s1)

Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

3 V 0 �a V =) V (s2)V (s1)

� V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

4 Equation (2) + zero pro�ts =) d ln pdσ = � ∂ lnA[M�1(σ),σ]

∂σ

5 M�1 (σ) < M 0�1 (σ) for σ 2 (σ1, σ2) + A log-spm ) p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

6p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

+ CES ) Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

� Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 14 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceSketch of Proof

a

a

ss

MÝsÞ

M vÝsÞMÝsÞM vÝsÞ

s1 s2

1 M 0 (s1) = M (s1) = σ1, M 0 (s2) = M (s2) = σ2, andM 0s (s1)

M 0s (s2)

< Ms (s1)Ms (s2)

2 Equation (1) =) V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

> V (s2)V (s1)

Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

3 V 0 �a V =) V (s2)V (s1)

� V 0(s2)V 0(s1)

4 Equation (2) + zero pro�ts =) d ln pdσ = � ∂ lnA[M�1(σ),σ]

∂σ

5 M�1 (σ) < M 0�1 (σ) for σ 2 (σ1, σ2) + A log-spm ) p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

6p(σ1)p(σ2)

� p 0(σ1)p 0(σ2)

+ CES ) Y (σ1)Y (σ2)

� Y 0(σ1)Y 0(σ2)

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 14 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceInequality

Moving from V to V 0 �a V implies pervasive rise in inequality:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

The mechanism is simple:

1 Pro�t-maximization implies

d lnwds

=∂ lnA [s,M (s)]

∂sand

d lnw 0

ds=

∂ lnA [s,M 0 (s)]∂s

2 Since A is log-supermodular, task upgrading implies

d lnw 0

ds� d lnw

ds

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 15 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceInequality

Moving from V to V 0 �a V implies pervasive rise in inequality:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

The mechanism is simple:

1 Pro�t-maximization implies

d lnwds

=∂ lnA [s,M (s)]

∂sand

d lnw 0

ds=

∂ lnA [s,M 0 (s)]∂s

2 Since A is log-supermodular, task upgrading implies

d lnw 0

ds� d lnw

ds

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 15 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceInequality

Moving from V to V 0 �a V implies pervasive rise in inequality:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

The mechanism is simple:1 Pro�t-maximization implies

d lnwds

=∂ lnA [s,M (s)]

∂sand

d lnw 0

ds=

∂ lnA [s,M 0 (s)]∂s

2 Since A is log-supermodular, task upgrading implies

d lnw 0

ds� d lnw

ds

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 15 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (I): Skill AbundanceInequality

Moving from V to V 0 �a V implies pervasive rise in inequality:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

The mechanism is simple:1 Pro�t-maximization implies

d lnwds

=∂ lnA [s,M (s)]

∂sand

d lnw 0

ds=

∂ lnA [s,M 0 (s)]∂s

2 Since A is log-supermodular, task upgrading implies

d lnw 0

ds� d lnw

ds

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 15 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (II): Skill DiversityDe�nition

De�nition V is more diverse than V 0, denoted V �d V 0, if there exists anbs 2 (s, s) such thatV 0 �a V , for all s < bsV �a V 0, for all s � bs

VÝsÞ

V vÝsÞ

s s

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 16 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (II): Skill DiversityMatching

Moving from V to V 0 �d V implies:1 Skill upgrading for low-σ tasks (task downgrading for low s):

M 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s < s�

2 Skill downgrading for high-σ tasks (task upgrading for high s):

M 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s� < s

a

a

ss

MÝsÞM vÝsÞ

sD

M vÝsÞ

MÝsÞ

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 17 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (II): Skill DiversityInequality

Moving from V to V 0 �d V implies:

1 Pervasive fall in inequality among low-skilled workers:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � s�

2 Pervasive rise in inequality among high-skilled workers:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s� � s 0 < s

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 18 / 33

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Change in Factor Supply (II): Skill DiversityInequality

Moving from V to V 0 �d V implies:

1 Pervasive fall in inequality among low-skilled workers:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � s�

2 Pervasive rise in inequality among high-skilled workers:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s� � s 0 < s

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 18 / 33

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Change in Factor Demand (I): SBTCDe�nition

De�nition B 0 is skill-biased relative to B, denoted B 0 �s B, if

B 0 (σ)B 0 (σ0)

� B (σ)B (σ0)

, for all σ > σ0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 19 / 33

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Change in Factor Demand (I): SBTCMatching and Inequality

Moving from B to B 0 �s B implies:1 Skill downgrading:

M 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for any s > s 0.

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 20 / 33

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Change in Factor Demand (I): SBTCMatching and Inequality

Moving from B to B 0 �s B implies:1 Skill downgrading:

M 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for any s > s 0.

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 20 / 33

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Change in Factor Demand (II): EBTCDe�nition

De�nition B 0 is extreme-biased relative to B, denoted B 0 �e B, ifthere exists an bσ 2 (σ, σ) such that

B �s B 0 for all σ < bσB 0 �s B for all σ � bσ

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 21 / 33

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Change in Factor Demand (II): EBTCMatching and Inequality

Moving from B to B 0 �e B implies:1 Job Polarization:

M 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s < s�

andM 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s� < s

2 Wage Polarization:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � s�

andw 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s� � s 0 < s

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 22 / 33

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Change in Factor Demand (II): EBTCMatching and Inequality

Moving from B to B 0 �e B implies:1 Job Polarization:

M 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s < s�

andM 0 (s) � M (s) , for all s� < s

2 Wage Polarization:

w 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � s�

andw 0 (s)w 0 (s 0)

� w (s)w (s 0)

, for all s� � s 0 < s

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 22 / 33

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The World EconomySetup

Two countries, Home (H) and Foreign (F )

Workers are internationally immobile, �nal good is not traded, and allintermediate goods are freely traded

Factor productivity di¤erences across countries are Hicks-neutral:

Ai (s, σ) � γiA (s, σ) for i = H,F

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 23 / 33

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The World EconomyFree Trade Equilibrium

A competitive equilibrium in the world economy under free trade is s.t.

dMT

ds=

A [s,MT (s)]VW (s)

IW � fpT [MT (s)] /BW [MT (s)]g�ε ,

d lnwT (s)ds

=∂ lnA [s,MT (s)]

∂s,

where:MT (s) = σ and MT (s) = σ

pT [MT (s)] = wT (s) /γHA [s,MT (s)]

BW [MT (s)] ��(IH/IW )BH [MT (s)]

ε + (IF /IW )BF [MT (s)]ε1/ε

VW � VH + VF

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 24 / 33

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Consequences of North-South TradeThe Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Factor Endowments

Assumption: VH �a VF and BH = BF

If VH �a VF , then VH �a VW �a VFContinuum-by-continuum extensions of two-by-two HO results

1 Changes in skill-intensities:

MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

a

a

ss

MW

MWMH

MHMF

MF

2 Strong Stolper-Samuelson e¤ect:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 25 / 33

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Consequences of North-South TradeThe Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Factor Endowments

Assumption: VH �a VF and BH = BFIf VH �a VF , then VH �a VW �a VF

Continuum-by-continuum extensions of two-by-two HO results

1 Changes in skill-intensities:

MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

a

a

ss

MW

MWMH

MHMF

MF

2 Strong Stolper-Samuelson e¤ect:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 25 / 33

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Consequences of North-South TradeThe Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Factor Endowments

Assumption: VH �a VF and BH = BFIf VH �a VF , then VH �a VW �a VFContinuum-by-continuum extensions of two-by-two HO results

1 Changes in skill-intensities:

MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

a

a

ss

MW

MWMH

MHMF

MF

2 Strong Stolper-Samuelson e¤ect:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 25 / 33

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Consequences of North-South TradeThe Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Factor Endowments

Assumption: VH �a VF and BH = BFIf VH �a VF , then VH �a VW �a VFContinuum-by-continuum extensions of two-by-two HO results

1 Changes in skill-intensities:

MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

a

a

ss

MW

MWMH

MHMF

MF

2 Strong Stolper-Samuelson e¤ect:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 25 / 33

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Consequences of North-South TradeThe Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Factor Endowments

Assumption: VH �a VF and BH = BFIf VH �a VF , then VH �a VW �a VFContinuum-by-continuum extensions of two-by-two HO results

1 Changes in skill-intensities:

MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

a

a

ss

MW

MWMH

MHMF

MF

2 Strong Stolper-Samuelson e¤ect:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 25 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)The Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Skill Biases

Assumption: VH = VF and BH �s BF

If BH �s BF , then BW satis�es BH �s BW �s BFExact same logic leads to the exact opposite conclusion

1 Matching:MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

2 Inequality:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 26 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)The Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Skill Biases

Assumption: VH = VF and BH �s BFIf BH �s BF , then BW satis�es BH �s BW �s BF

Exact same logic leads to the exact opposite conclusion

1 Matching:MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

2 Inequality:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 26 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)The Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Skill Biases

Assumption: VH = VF and BH �s BFIf BH �s BF , then BW satis�es BH �s BW �s BFExact same logic leads to the exact opposite conclusion

1 Matching:MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

2 Inequality:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 26 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)The Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Skill Biases

Assumption: VH = VF and BH �s BFIf BH �s BF , then BW satis�es BH �s BW �s BFExact same logic leads to the exact opposite conclusion

1 Matching:MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

2 Inequality:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 26 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)The Role of Cross-Country Di¤erences in Skill Biases

Assumption: VH = VF and BH �s BFIf BH �s BF , then BW satis�es BH �s BW �s BFExact same logic leads to the exact opposite conclusion

1 Matching:MH (s) � MT (s) � MF (s) , for all s

2 Inequality:

wH (s)wH (s 0)

� wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s > s 0

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 26 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)Summary

Observation #1:Predictions regarding the impact of trade integration crucially dependon the correlation between supply and demand considerations

Observation #2:Acemoglu (1998, 2002, 2003a, 2003b, 2007) argues thatskill-abundant countries tend to use skill-biased technologies

Conclusion #1:Similar countries may have di¤erent globalization experiencesdepending on which of these two forces, supply or demand, dominates

Conclusion #2:Overall e¤ect of trade liberalization on factor allocation and factorprices may be small in practice

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 27 / 33

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)Summary

Observation #1:Predictions regarding the impact of trade integration crucially dependon the correlation between supply and demand considerations

Observation #2:Acemoglu (1998, 2002, 2003a, 2003b, 2007) argues thatskill-abundant countries tend to use skill-biased technologies

Conclusion #1:Similar countries may have di¤erent globalization experiencesdepending on which of these two forces, supply or demand, dominates

Conclusion #2:Overall e¤ect of trade liberalization on factor allocation and factorprices may be small in practice

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)Summary

Observation #1:Predictions regarding the impact of trade integration crucially dependon the correlation between supply and demand considerations

Observation #2:Acemoglu (1998, 2002, 2003a, 2003b, 2007) argues thatskill-abundant countries tend to use skill-biased technologies

Conclusion #1:Similar countries may have di¤erent globalization experiencesdepending on which of these two forces, supply or demand, dominates

Conclusion #2:Overall e¤ect of trade liberalization on factor allocation and factorprices may be small in practice

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Consequences of North-South Trade (Cont.)Summary

Observation #1:Predictions regarding the impact of trade integration crucially dependon the correlation between supply and demand considerations

Observation #2:Acemoglu (1998, 2002, 2003a, 2003b, 2007) argues thatskill-abundant countries tend to use skill-biased technologies

Conclusion #1:Similar countries may have di¤erent globalization experiencesdepending on which of these two forces, supply or demand, dominates

Conclusion #2:Overall e¤ect of trade liberalization on factor allocation and factorprices may be small in practice

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 27 / 33

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Consequences of North-North TradeMatching

Assumption: VH �d VF and BH = BF

If VH �d VF , then VW satis�es VH �d VW �d VFChanges in matching: Job polarization at Home

MT (s) � MH (s) , for all s < sH ;MT (s) � MH (s) , for all sH < s.

and the converse in Foreign

a

a

ss

MHÝsÞMWÝsÞ

MHÝsÞ

MFÝsÞ

MFÝsÞ

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Consequences of North-North TradeMatching

Assumption: VH �d VF and BH = BFIf VH �d VF , then VW satis�es VH �d VW �d VF

Changes in matching: Job polarization at Home

MT (s) � MH (s) , for all s < sH ;MT (s) � MH (s) , for all sH < s.

and the converse in Foreign

a

a

ss

MHÝsÞMWÝsÞ

MHÝsÞ

MFÝsÞ

MFÝsÞ

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 28 / 33

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Consequences of North-North TradeMatching

Assumption: VH �d VF and BH = BFIf VH �d VF , then VW satis�es VH �d VW �d VFChanges in matching: Job polarization at Home

MT (s) � MH (s) , for all s < sH ;MT (s) � MH (s) , for all sH < s.

and the converse in Foreign

a

a

ss

MHÝsÞMWÝsÞ

MHÝsÞ

MFÝsÞ

MFÝsÞ

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 28 / 33

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Consequences of North-North Trade (Cont.)Inequality

Changes in Inequality:

1 Wage polarization in the more diverse country

wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wH (s)wH (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � sHwT (s)wT (s 0)

� wH (s)wH (s 0)

, for all sH � s 0 < s

2 Wage convergence in the less diverse country

wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � sFwT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all sF � s 0 < s

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Consequences of North-North Trade (Cont.)Inequality

Changes in Inequality:1 Wage polarization in the more diverse country

wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wH (s)wH (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � sHwT (s)wT (s 0)

� wH (s)wH (s 0)

, for all sH � s 0 < s

2 Wage convergence in the less diverse country

wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � sFwT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all sF � s 0 < s

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Consequences of North-North Trade (Cont.)Inequality

Changes in Inequality:1 Wage polarization in the more diverse country

wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wH (s)wH (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � sHwT (s)wT (s 0)

� wH (s)wH (s 0)

, for all sH � s 0 < s

2 Wage convergence in the less diverse country

wT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all s 0 < s � sFwT (s)wT (s 0)

� wF (s)wF (s 0)

, for all sF � s 0 < s

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Consequences of North-North Trade (Cont.)Summary

Conclusion #1:North-North trade has no clear implications for overall inequality:Relative wage between high- and low-skill workers� as well as relativeprice of goods they produce� may either increase or decrease

Conclusion #2:Consequences of North-North trade are to be found at a higher levelof disaggregation: changes in inequality occur within low- andhigh-skill workers, respectively

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Consequences of North-North Trade (Cont.)Summary

Conclusion #1:North-North trade has no clear implications for overall inequality:Relative wage between high- and low-skill workers� as well as relativeprice of goods they produce� may either increase or decrease

Conclusion #2:Consequences of North-North trade are to be found at a higher levelof disaggregation: changes in inequality occur within low- andhigh-skill workers, respectively

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 30 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyGlobal SBTC

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γF

Moving from BW to B 0W �s BW implies:

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

3 An increase in inequality between countries:

I 0H�I 0F � IH/ IF

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Technological Change in the World EconomyGlobal SBTC

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from BW to B 0W �s BW implies:

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

3 An increase in inequality between countries:

I 0H�I 0F � IH/ IF

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Technological Change in the World EconomyGlobal SBTC

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from BW to B 0W �s BW implies:

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

3 An increase in inequality between countries:

I 0H�I 0F � IH/ IF

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 31 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyGlobal SBTC

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from BW to B 0W �s BW implies:

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

3 An increase in inequality between countries:

I 0H�I 0F � IH/ IF

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 31 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyGlobal SBTC

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from BW to B 0W �s BW implies:

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

3 An increase in inequality between countries:

I 0H�I 0F � IH/ IF

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 31 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyO¤shoring Tasks

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γF

Moving from γF to γ0F � γF implies

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

Intuition: O¤shoring makes the world relatively less skill-abundant,which leads to sector upgrading around the world, thereby increasingthe marginal return to skill in all countries

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Technological Change in the World EconomyO¤shoring Tasks

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from γF to γ0F � γF implies

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

Intuition: O¤shoring makes the world relatively less skill-abundant,which leads to sector upgrading around the world, thereby increasingthe marginal return to skill in all countries

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 32 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyO¤shoring Tasks

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from γF to γ0F � γF implies

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

Intuition: O¤shoring makes the world relatively less skill-abundant,which leads to sector upgrading around the world, thereby increasingthe marginal return to skill in all countries

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 32 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyO¤shoring Tasks

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from γF to γ0F � γF implies

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

Intuition: O¤shoring makes the world relatively less skill-abundant,which leads to sector upgrading around the world, thereby increasingthe marginal return to skill in all countries

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 32 / 33

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Technological Change in the World EconomyO¤shoring Tasks

Assumption: VH �a VF and γH � γFMoving from γF to γ0F � γF implies

1 Skill downgrading/task upgrading in both countries:

MT (s) � M 0T (s) , for all s

2 Pervasive rise in inequality in both countries:

w 0T (s)w 0T (s

0)� wT (s)wT (s 0)

, for all s > s 0.

Intuition: O¤shoring makes the world relatively less skill-abundant,which leads to sector upgrading around the world, thereby increasingthe marginal return to skill in all countries

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 32 / 33

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Conclusions

Contribution (I): Derive su¢ cient conditions for robust monotonecomparative statics predictions� without functional form restrictionson the distribution of skills or worker productivity� in a Roy-likeassignment model where goods neither have to be perfect substitutesnor perfect complements

Contribution (II): Show how these general results can be used toderive sharp predictions about the consequences of globalization ineconomies with an arbitrarily large number of both goods and factors,thereby broadening the scope of standard trade theory

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Conclusions

Contribution (I): Derive su¢ cient conditions for robust monotonecomparative statics predictions� without functional form restrictionson the distribution of skills or worker productivity� in a Roy-likeassignment model where goods neither have to be perfect substitutesnor perfect complements

Contribution (II): Show how these general results can be used toderive sharp predictions about the consequences of globalization ineconomies with an arbitrarily large number of both goods and factors,thereby broadening the scope of standard trade theory

Costinot & Vogel (MIT & Columbia) Matching and Inequality March 2009 33 / 33