mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges

Agriculture and Climate Change:Potential Challenges

Daniel Mason-D’CrozInternational Food Policy Research Institute


Challenges• Population Growth• Income growth

and changing diets• Greater competition for

resources• Climate change

Growing threats to:• Land• Water• Environmental preservation• Biodiversity

Higher food prices


Global Population (millions) Global GDP (billion USD)


Source: IMPACT 3.2 November 2015


• Climate change is both a present and future challenge• Agriculture sector will be impacted by climate change in many

ways– Increasing temperatures– Altered weather patterns– Decreasing snow-pack will challenge water management– Changing frequency and magnitude of extreme events– Glacier melt leading to raising sea levels– Acidification of oceans will threaten many aquatic species

Agriculture and Climate Change:Challenges and Opportunities

• Agriculture sector not only effected by climate change but also contributes to it

• Increasing number of animals and demand for crop area may increase GHG emission contributions from agriculture

Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer. 2015.Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.


• Average temperature increase may be gradual, but will still require adaptation– Changing planting calendars– Some crops are already threatened by heat stress, will be

stressed even more– Adapting the cropping mix (maize moving northwards)– New heat tolerant varieties could be beneficial, but require

time to develop and implement– Warmer temperatures will have major consequences for

pest management


• Climate smart technologies have significant potential to mitigate effects of climate change

• Drought and heat tolerant varieties could help mitigate negative effects of climate change

• Integrated pest management could help manage changing impacts from pests and diseases


MAIZE RICE WHEAT

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

MIROC A1B

Drought Tolerance (DT)

Heat Tolerance (HT)

Integrated Soil Fertility Management (FM)

N Use Efficiency

No-Till (NT)

Precision Agriculture (PA)

Water Harvesting (WH)

Irrigation - Drip

Irrigation - Sprinkler

Organic Agriculture

Crop Protection (Diseases)

Crop Protection (Insects)

Crop Protection (Weeds)

32%

16%

28%

12%

5%

9%

8%

4%

1%

1%

0%

7%

9%

21%

34%

18%

2%

6%

0%

9%

7%

8%

20%

14%

11%

32%

26%

10%

6%

1%

7%

4%

0%

7%

7%

Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.


• Changing mean annual precipitation, as well as the variance in precipitation will increase concerns of water scarcity– Many places are already suffering water shortages today– Increased prevalence of droughts could exacerbate this– High rainfall events can be just as challenging from a

water management perspective leading to floods and landslides


Current areas of water scarcity

Precipitation change in 2050 (GFDL RCP 8.5)

Precipitation change in 2050 (HGEM RCP 8.5)

Source: IWMI 2006

Source: Robinson et al 2015


• Higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns may lead to diminishing snowpack

• Increased variation of rainfall complicates water management could lead to increasing water scarcity

• Irrigation for agriculture is the largest single water use,• 70% of global water withdrawal,

and 90% global water consumption

• Irrigated areas account for less than 20% of global cropland, but contribute ~40% of cereal production

Source: Mote and Sharp, 2015


• Less water + more demand = need for increased irrigation efficiency

(Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation)

28% less water applied 22% more water productivity

Improved Irrigation Technologies Increased water savings Increased water productivity

Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.


• Extreme events like droughts, floods, and hurricanes already occur• Climate change is likely to change the frequency of these events,

and potentially their magnitudes• Can have very big impacts on

infrastructure, and temporal access tomarkets, leading to price spikes– Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines,

Food prices increased by 5%, andpoverty rates increased by >1% (NEDA 2014)

Source: Bender et al 2010


• Natural environmental patterns like El Niño could be altered• Leading to significant

yield impacts for cereals key sourcesfor global calorie supply

Source: Liberto 2014


Source: Iizumi et al 2014


• World is a complicated and interconnected place• Small changes across multiple dimensions

can be force multiplying, leading to unexpected non-linear effects.

• Droughts can lead to plagues – Coffee rust after droughts

• Lloyd’s Risk Report already consideringpotential effect of multiple extremeevents happening simultaneously


• Climate change may change the distribution of human diseases (malaria, dengue, etc.)– Human pandemics can destabilize regions including

agriculture• Increasing challenges to cope may lead to more conflict

over resources, which in turn could lead to larger human migrations

• Transportation system and agricultural markets are vulnerable– Rising sea level may lead to more damage to ports– Higher temperatures lead to deterioration of roads and

rail– Greater evaporation and less precipitation can make

river and lake transportation more costly


• Food security is made up of 4 components:– Food supply– Access to food– Stability of food system– Quality of food (safety, and nutrition)

• Climate change threatens global food security across all 4 components


• Challenges posed by climate change are significant• Technologies exist today to help mitigate and adapt • Not all regions will be impacted equally by climate change.

Some will benefit while others will be harmed• Trade will be critical in smoothing out these asymmetric

effects• Disruptions to agricultural markets can threaten trade and

access of food, increasing food insecurity globally


Thank you

Daniel Mason-D’[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges

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