DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE YEAR MEXICO EMISSIONSMartinus E. Wolf and Gopi K. ManneEastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG)8950 Cal Center Drive, Suite 325Sacramento, CA 95829marty.wolf@erg.com

Alison Eyth and Lee ToolyU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyC339-02, 109 T.W. Alexander DriveResearch Triangle Park, NC 27709eyth.alison@epa.gov

ABSTRACT

T he U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) previously developed an air quality modeling platform for the year 2011 based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, version 1 (2011NEIv1). This modeling platform included all emissions inventories and ancillary data

files used for emissions modeling for the 48 contiguous states, as well as portions of Canada and Mexico. The Mexico emissions data used in this modeling platform were 1999 year emissions data that were projected forward to 2012.

Improved Mexico projected inventories were developed based upon the latest Mexico-specific emissions inventory – the Mexico Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources’ (SEMARNAT) 2008 Mexico National Emissions Inventory (INEM). Prior to projecting the 2008 INEM, the inventory was quality assured and improvements were made.

The 2008 base year inventory was then projected forward to the future years of 2018, 2025, and 2030. The future year projections were based upon publicly available surrogates including: population projections, fuel use projections, gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts, and historical agricultural statistics. The resulting inventory projections data were then provided in a .csv type format that can be read by SMOKE and have been incorporated into the latest version of the 2011-based Modeling Platform (2011v6.2).

SCOPEBASE YEAR INVENTORY– 2008 Mexico National Emissions Inventory

(Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de México – INEM) (see Table 1)1

FUTURE YEAR INVENTORIES– 2018, 2025, and 2030

MEXICO– 32 Federal entities – 31 states and the Federal District– 2,457 municipalities (as of 2014) – equivalent to U.S. counties

INVENTORY POLLUTANTS– NOx, SO2, VOC, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, pyrolytic elemental carbon (PEC) (i.e., black carbon)

INVENTORY SOURCE TYPESPoint sources– Federal or state jurisdiction; not based on emissions threshold– Federal jurisdiction (2,867 facilities with 20,028 stacks)– State jurisdiction (4,686 facilities with 8,961 stacks)

Area sources– Fuel combustion (industrial, commercial, residential, agricultural)– Solvent evaporation (coatings, degreasing, graphic arts, dry cleaning, asphalt paving, consumer

solvents) – Fuel distribution (gasoline and LPG)– Agricultural (fertilizer application, pesticide application, agricultural burning, tilling, cattle

feedlots)– Other (construction, bakeries, charbroiling, domestic ammonia, treated and untreated municipal

wastewater, structure fires, forest fires, hospital sterilization operations, border crossings, bus terminals)

– Excluded (paved and unpaved road dust, area source coal combustion, area source oil and gas, open burning, landfills, prescribed burning, brick kilns)

On-Road Motor Vehicles– Light- and heavy-duty vehicles– Gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and LPG

Nonroad Mobile Sources– Commercial marine vessels, locomotives, aircraft, airport ground support equipment (GSE),

diesel-powered construction and agricultural equipment

Biogenic and other natural sources not inventoried

NOx SO2 VOC CO PM10 PM2.5 NH3 PECPoint 606,442 2,393,790 290,676 694,173 233,158 160,911 31,569 19,683

Area 500,469 26,088 3,893,738 3,203,066 635,540 459,286 869,744 53,316

Onroad 2,209,776 29,265 2,864,968 32,639,825 19,152 13,754 68,537 NE

Nonroad 250,417 21,501 32,049 146,495 31,295 30,273 17 NE

TOTAL 3,567,104 2,470,644 7,081,431 36,683,559 919,145 664,224 969,867 72,999NE = not estimated

_̂

!(

#*

!(

#*

!(

!(

!(

Juárez

Tijuana Mexicali

Chihuahua

Monterrey

Hermosillo

Guadalajara

Mexico City

08

26

05

10

20

28

14

02

32

03

07

30

19

12

24

16

25

0423

31

21

11

18

27

15

1322

01

0617

2909

01 Aguascalientes02 Baja California03 Baja California Sur04 Campeche05 Coahuila06 Colima07 Chiapas08 Chihuahua09 Distrito Federal

10 Durango11 Guanajuato12 Guerrero13 Hidalgo14 Jalisco15 México16 Michoacán17 Morelos18 Nayarit19 Nuevo León20 Oaxaca

21 Puebla22 Querétaro23 Quintana Roo24 San Luis Potosí25 Sinaloa26 Sonora27 Tabasco28 Tamaulipas29 Tlaxcala30 Veracruz31 Yucatán32 Zacatecas

QUALITY ASSURANCE AND IMPROVEMENTS PRIOR TO PROJECTIONSGENERAL– Three new municipalities created since 2008 base year inventory

POINT SOURCES– Gap filled missing point source stack data using SCC defaults

– Standardized and gap filled required point source data fields– Emissions and stack parameters converted from metric to U.S. units– Emission unit IDs assigned as process IDs– FIPS codes assigned

– Excluded 151 records with blank emissions

– Excluded 101 duplicate records

– Corrected 331 records where PM2.5 > PM10; PM2.5 set equal to PM10

– Adjusted incorrect point source stack locations (coordinates compared to reported states and municipalities) (see Figures 2-3)

AREA SOURCES– Assigned area source SCCs based on source category description

ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES– Assigned on-road motor vehicle SCCs based on source category description

– Corrected 140 records where PM2.5 > PM10; PM2.5 set equal to PM10

– Adjusted on-road motor vehicle emissions for Baja California, Michoacán, and Nuevo León – per capita emissions were “suspiciously” high (see Figures 4-6)

NONROAD MOBILE SOURCES– Assigned nonroad mobile source SCCs based on source category description

– Deleted 1 record with negative emissions

!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.

!.!.!.

!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.!.

ImperialSan Diego

Ensenada

Mexicali

TecateTijuana

Playas de Rosarito

San DiegoImperial

Ensenada

TecateTijuana

Playas de Rosarito

IDENTIFICATION AND ADJUSTMENT OF POTENTIALLY HIGH ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS– 2008 Baja California NOx emissions identified as “outliers” Emissions approximately twice as much as Los Angeles Per capita emissions 1 order of magnitude larger than Los Angeles

– Gridded 2008 Baja California NOx emissions show highest values in Tijuana and Mexicali (see Figure 4)

– Satellite images show high NOx quantities in Los Angeles, but not in Baja California (see Figure 5)

– State-level on-road motor vehicle per capita emissions were examined (see Figure 6)

– Baja California, Michoacán, and Nuevo León had significantly higher per capita emissions for all pollutants. Adjustment factors calculated using 29-state (i.e., all states but Baja California, Michoacán, and Nuevo León) average pollutant-specific per capita emission rates.

– Some other states (e.g., Jalisco, Puebla, Zacatecas, etc.) had high per capita emissions for some, but not all, pollutants. Adjustment factors were not calculated for these states.

PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGYBASIC PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY (for point sources, area sources, and nonroad mobile sources)

Efy,s = E2008,s x Pfy,s

Where: Efy,s = projected emissions for future year fy for source s; E2008,s = estimated base year emissions for 2008 for source s; and Pfy,s = projection factor for future year fy for source s.

Projection factor > 1.0 – increasing emissionsProjection factor < 1.0 – decreasing emissionsProjection factor = 1.0 – no growth

MEXICO SURROGATE DATA USED FOR PROJECTION FACTORS– Fuel consumption and production projections– National fuel balance– Population censuses– Population projections– Gross domestic product (GDP) projections– Long-term agricultural acreage– Long-term sugarcane production

ON-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLE PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY– Based on information from original 1999 INEM and earlier projections for 2008, 2012, and 20305,6 – Combined projection factor

Increased demand of motor vehicle fuels Changes in vehicle technologies and emission due to anticipated turnover of the Mexican vehicle fleet – estimated using MOBILE6-Mexico model7

Linear interpolation of previous fleet turnover factors Original assumptions regarding fuel and vehicle standards, as well as implementation schedule, were maintained

State NOx SO2 VOC CO PM10 PM2.5 NH3 PECAguascalientes 13,819 3,051 29,699 42,677 5,294 2,715 11,341 119Baja California 87,854 11,329 134,461 503,315 14,320 9,189 16,533 501Baja California Sur 10,625 4,400 17,686 32,784 2,494 1,185 4,533 55Campeche 74,304 638,516 50,513 104,259 14,289 11,968 9,876 1,167Coahuila 285,941 251,351 163,806 1,080,967 36,697 27,808 27,364 701Colima 28,721 76,981 39,947 201,948 10,115 5,870 5,397 664Chiapas 36,447 78,218 362,535 440,408 59,401 51,937 41,050 7,248Chihuahua 85,187 25,142 129,501 209,696 34,652 19,547 39,732 1,398Distrito Federal 123,726 2,309 251,836 764,556 5,499 3,585 22,068 66Durango 57,478 23,267 84,036 310,625 21,340 14,134 33,882 1,128Guanajuato 102,776 46,431 233,036 1,051,853 32,758 19,629 48,568 1,601Guerrero 65,425 125,997 252,443 735,777 38,711 34,165 36,468 3,593Hidalgo 68,231 161,375 138,616 306,845 32,452 24,939 28,163 2,105Jalisco 220,631 37,716 573,013 3,549,964 44,847 28,206 96,219 3,269México 221,184 11,496 626,768 2,414,224 47,050 37,468 57,429 3,938Michoacán 92,295 20,335 241,922 811,330 38,421 27,884 42,021 3,289Morelos 35,464 14,711 82,998 401,476 10,744 7,496 9,098 1,178Nayarit 41,105 1,104 79,693 542,490 13,247 8,934 15,115 1,274Nuevo León 124,587 46,403 176,327 710,438 26,884 17,342 21,332 1,015Oaxaca 33,237 144,828 287,333 498,363 57,085 46,735 43,293 5,978Puebla 161,120 7,796 339,571 786,140 46,155 37,644 64,499 4,740Querétaro 34,730 6,814 73,747 118,322 8,916 6,982 17,501 646Quintana Roo 10,767 2,713 61,351 132,939 14,409 11,063 5,902 1,405San Luis Potosí 61,101 81,805 138,784 209,259 41,152 29,824 25,692 4,413Sinaloa 53,134 19,930 103,491 221,124 31,837 17,347 31,238 1,997Sonora 52,510 13,874 88,421 165,414 23,953 12,920 42,904 723Tabasco 47,117 20,107 128,705 177,409 22,397 18,702 16,389 2,749Tamaulipas 103,593 57,950 134,398 266,801 42,964 23,640 24,527 1,293Tlaxcala 10,420 2,386 40,132 44,362 6,954 4,487 10,245 462Veracruz 207,597 154,593 606,798 1,943,945 129,174 98,685 87,369 15,652Yucatán 23,779 16,479 137,467 169,310 18,801 16,869 16,507 2,019Zacatecas 77,330 2,254 102,964 837,529 19,495 9,384 28,962 632TOTAL 2,652,235 2,111,661 5,911,998 19,786,547 952,506 688,284 981,216 77,016

References1. Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de México, 2008 (detailed municipality-level emission files), Secretaría del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) (Secretariat of the Environment

and Natural Resources), Mexico City, Mexico, 2014.2. Catálogo Único de Claves de Áreas Geoestadísticas Estatales, Municipales y Localidades. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) (National Institute of Statistics and Geography),

Aguascalientes, Mexico, 2014.3. Eyth, A. 2014. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, personal communication.4. Wolf, M. and Manne, G., “Adjustment of Mexico On-Road Motor Vehicle Emissions”, Technical Memorandum; Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by Eastern Research Group, Inc.

(ERG), Sacramento, CA, 2014.5. Mexico National Emissions Inventory, 1999: Final. Prepared for SEMARNAT and INE by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, CA, 2006.6. Development of Mexico National Emissions Inventory Projections for 2008, 2012, and 2030. Prepared for the National Institute of Ecology of Mexico and the National Renewable Energy

Laboratory (NREL) by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, CA, 2009.7. MOBILE6-Mexico. Prepared for the Western Governors’ Association (WGA) by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Austin, TX, 2003.

= Mexico City Metropolitan Area (>20,000,000 people)

= Major Metropolitan Area (>4,000,000 people)

= Other Metropolitan Area (>750,000 people) located in border state

2018 NOx SO2 VOC CO PM10 PM2.5 NH3 PECPoint 696,080 2,048,888 364,136 810,376 266,315 184,684 39,229 23,700Area 500,469 26,088 3,893,738 3,203,066 635,540 459,286 869,744 53,316Onroad 1,179,129 10,598 1,620,208 15,615,087 18,161 12,904 72,225 NENonroad 276,556 26,088 33,916 158,018 32,489 31,410 18 NETOTAL 2,652,235 2,111,661 5,911,998 19,786,547 952,506 688,284 981,216 77,016

2025 NOx SO2 VOC CO PM10 PM2.5 NH3 PECPoint 807,379 2,128,701 453,260 975,723 320,435 221,446 47,711 29,274Area 522,210 26,445 4,198,304 3,374,341 660,491 481,787 880,101 56,197Onroad 813,521 7,166 1,454,176 16,128,939 21,775 15,368 93,347 NENonroad 313,319 32,136 36,458 172,267 34,451 33,281 18 NETOTAL 2,456,429 2,194,448 6,142,197 20,651,270 1,037,153 751,882 1,021,178 85,471

2030 NOx SO2 VOC CO PM10 PM2.5 NH3 PECPoint 909,161 2,217,323 524,752 1,024,912 367,442 253,619 54,794 34,174Area 530,627 26,648 4,408,598 3,482,983 676,561 496,271 886,619 58,079Onroad 348,834 2,801 1,104,212 14,720,733 23,369 16,452 104,906 NENonroad 339,071 36,398 38,340 183,124 35,820 34,587 19 NETOTAL 2,127,694 2,283,170 6,075,902 19,411,752 1,103,192 800,929 1,046,338 92,254NE = not estimated

Table 1. 2008 Mexico National Emissions Inventory (tons/year)

Figure 1. Mexico Federal Entities and Selected Metropolitan Areas

Figure 2. Unadjusted Baja California Point Source Locations

Figure 3. Adjusted Baja California Point Source Locations

= U.S. Counties

= Mexican Municipalities = U.S. Counties

= Mexican Municipalities

= Incorrect point source locations = Corrected point source locations (Urban locality coordinates)

Figure 4. Spatial Allocation of Unadjusted 2008 Mexico NEI On-Road NOx Emissions3

Figure 5. Satellite Measurements of NOx in the Western United States and Northern Mexico3

Figure 6. 2008 INEM State-Level Per Capita NOx Emissions4 (kg/person-year)

Table 2. Projected 2018 State-Level Emissions (tons/year)

Table 3. Projected 2018, 2025, and 2030 Mexico Emissions (tons/year)

Figure 7. Distribution of Projected 2018 NOX Emissions (% of total)

Figure 8. Distribution of Projected 2018 SO2 Emissions (% of total)

Figure 9. Distribution of Projected 2018 VOC Emissions (% of total)

Coahuila México Jalisco Veracruz Puebla Nuevo León Distrito Federal Tamaulipas Guanajuato Michoacán All Others

Campeche Coahuila Hidalgo Veracruz Oaxaca Guerrero San Luis Potosí Chiapas Colima Tamaulipas All Others

México Veracruz Jalisco Chiapas Puebla Oaxaca Guerrero Distrito Federal Michoacán Guanajuato All Others

10.8%

30.2%

10.6%

8.3%

11.9%

10.3%8.3%

7.6%

9.7%7.8%

7.3%

6.1%6.1% 6.9% 5.7%

3.9%

3.7%

4.3%3.9%

3.6%

4.1%3.5%

2.7%

3.9%

38.0%

16.1%

36.1%

4.7%

3.9%

4.3%4.7% 4.9%

6.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

AGU

BCN BCS

CAM

COA

COL

CHP

CHH

DIF

DU

R

GU

A

GR

O

HID JAL

MEX MIC

MO

R

NAY

NLE

OAX

PUE

QU

E

RO

O

SLP

SIN

SON

TAB

TAM

TLA

VER

YUC

ZAC

Work performed under EPA Contract No. EP-D-11-006, Work Assignment 4-09.

IDENTIFICATION AND ADJUSTMENT OF INCORRECT POINT SOURCE LOCATIONS– Approximately 18 percent of the point source

facility coordinates were identified as incorrect (i.e., coordinates did not lie within the boundaries of the reported municipality) (see Figure 2)

– Assumed that the reported states and municipalities were correct and the reported coordinates were incorrect

– All incorrect location coordinates were replaced by locality coordinates for each municipality’s respective municipal seat2 (see Figure 3)