martenson - shifting baselines v2
TRANSCRIPT
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A GrandExperiment
A Big Picture Look At Where
We Really Are Today
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Copyright
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My Life As A Scientist...
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Copyright
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Copyright
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Copyright
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Our Beliefs Shape Our World
Your beliefs become your thoughts
Your thoughts become your words
Your words become your actions
Your actions become your habits
Your habits become your values
Your values become your destiny
Mahatma Gan
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Two Ways People Change
Insight
Pain
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The Really
Big
Picture
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The Three Es
Economy Energy
Environment
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What is
Money?
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Money is a claim on real
goods and services (i.e.
wealth)
Debt is a claim on money.
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In Balance...
$ Money $Real
Wealth
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Out of Balance...
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All Moneyis Loaned
into
Existence
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The One Chart That Explains It All
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How Economists See the World
..
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Exponential
Growth
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-7 00 0 -6 00 0 -5 00 0 -4 00 0 -3 00 0 -2 00 0 -1 00 0 0 1 00 0 2 00 0 2 10 0
The Power of Exponential Growth
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Yankee Stadium
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At what time would it still be97% empty?
12:45
If we began at 12:00, when would
Yankee Stadium be filled?12:50
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Our Stadium
Population
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0
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-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 2100-7000 600050004000300020001000 0 1000 2000
Billions
Years
Population
3
7
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1800 1900 2000
Production
Oil
Forest Loshttp://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/mg20026786 000/mg20026786 000 1 1701 jpg
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Water Use
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Fisheries
Exploited
Forest Los
Species
Extinctio
/mg20026786.000/mg20026786.000-1_1701.jpg
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Exponential Systems Speed Up
The Three Es
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The Three E s
Economy Energy
Environment
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The Three Es = Complex Systems
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Features Of Complex Systems
They are inherently unpredictable
They owe their order and complexity to...energy
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Energy
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Specifically,
Oil
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A Full Doubling of Spending...
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...Kept The World Running In Place
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What Sorts OfExplanations Do
We Have ForThat?
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The Easy Days Are Over
A Gi ti Shift
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A Gigantic Shift....
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Environment
Copper Ore 10%
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Copper Nugget
Copper Ore 10%
Copper Mining - Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah
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pp g
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No Fresh Continents To Find...
About Those Complex Systems
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About Those Complex Systems...
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The Implications Are Huge
The past will be a poor guide of the future
Risks are now badly understood and priced
Growth as we knew it is over
Huge shifts in the economy towards the basics
The opportunities are enormous
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PeakProsperity.com