Week Demand Base level Trend Predicted

1 1 1 1470 1470 0 14702 2 870 1170 -150 10203 3 986 1003 -158.5 844.54 4 1247 1045.75 -57.875 987.8755 5 1109 1048.4375 -27.59375 1020.843756 6 1197 1108.921875 16.44531 1125.367197 7 1500 1312.68359375 110.1035 1422.78711

2 1 8 1854 1638.3935546875 217.9067 1856.300292 9 1489 1672.6501464844 126.0817 1798.731813 10 1792 1795.3659057617 124.3987 1919.764624 11 1708 1813.88230896 71.45756 1885.339875 12 1787 1836.1699333191 46.87259 1883.042526 13 1314 1598.5212621689 -95.38804 1503.133227 14 1136 1319.5666110516 -187.1713 1132.39527

3 1 15 1537 1334.69763273 -86.02016 1248.677472 16 1132 1190.3387353867 -115.1895 1075.149213 17 1368 1221.5746028684 -41.97683 1179.597774 18 1488 1333.7988858921 35.12373 1368.922615 19 1392 1380.461305931 40.89307 1421.354386 20 1321 1371.1771894676 15.80448 1386.981677 21 1469 1427.9908338691 36.30906 1464.2999

4 1 22 1795 1629.6499476025 118.9841 1748.634042 23 1780 1764.3170175686 126.8256 1891.14263 24 1841 1866.0712981595 114.2899 1980.361234 25 1774 1877.1806139151 62.69962 1939.880245 26 1835 1887.4401183141 36.47956 1923.919686 27 1847 1885.4598409351 17.24964 1902.709487 28 1833 1867.8547420118 -0.177728 1867.67701

5 1 29 1847 1857.3385070472 -5.346981 1851.991532 30 1680 1765.9957628031 -48.34486 1717.65093 31 1680 1698.8254499803 -57.75759 1641.067864 32 1798 1719.5339310738 -18.52455 1701.009385 33 1843 1772.0046888521 16.9731 1788.977796 34 1322 1555.4888955282 -99.77135 1455.717557 35 1022 1238.8587749842 -208.2007 1030.65804

6 1 36 1298 1164.3290209662 -141.3652 1022.963782 37 956 989.48188871561 -158.1062 831.3757013 38 1236 1033.6878504114 -56.95011 976.7377374 39 1306 1141.3688686565 25.36545 1166.734325 40 1176 1171.3671606149 27.68187 1199.049036 41 1134 1166.5245164404 11.41961 1177.944137 42 1164 1170.972065243 7.933581 1178.90565

7 1 43 1486 1332.4528233336 84.70717 1417.159992 44 870 1143.5799965455 -52.08283 1091.49717

DOW

Indicator

Time Period

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 890

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Holt Method

Demand Predicted

3 45 1392 1241.7485840151 23.04288 1264.791464 46 1747 1505.8957317461 143.595 1649.490755 47 1861 1755.2453726751 196.4723 1951.71776 48 1797 1874.3588499708 157.7929 2032.151757 49 1719 1875.575876126 79.50496 1955.08084

8 1 50 1729 1842.0404201721 22.98475 1865.025172 51 1251 1558.0125871521 -130.5215 1427.491053 52 1682 1554.7455238541 -66.8943 1487.851224 53 1795 1641.4256112416 9.892893 1651.31855 54 1814 1732.6592521249 50.56327 1783.222526 55 1772 1777.6112595354 47.75764 1825.36897 56 1885 1855.1844483567 62.66541 1917.84986

9 1 57 1924 1920.9249306782 64.20295 1985.127882 58 1591 1788.0639391694 -34.32902 1753.734923 59 1727 1740.3674586227 -41.01275 1699.354714 60 1772 1735.6773536936 -22.85143 1712.825935 61 1748 1730.4129628057 -14.05791 1716.355056 62 1748 1732.1775266603 -6.146673 1726.030857 63 1643 1684.5154269225 -26.90439 1657.61104

10 1 64 1765 1711.305520323 -0.057146 1711.248372 65 1748 1729.6241869425 9.13076 1738.754953 66 1795 1766.8774735166 23.19202 1790.06954 67 1672 1731.0347484245 -6.325351 1724.70945 68 1345 1534.8546987723 -101.2527 1433.6026 69 1273 1353.3009992532 -141.4032 1211.89787 70 1600 1405.9488996803 -44.37765 1361.57125

11 1 71 1773 1567.2856249738 58.47954 1625.765162 72 1292 1458.8825813771 -24.96175 1433.920833 73 1753 1593.4604142345 54.80804 1648.268454 74 1805 1726.6342271045 93.99093 1820.625155 75 1601 1710.8125767634 39.08464 1749.897216 76 722 1235.948607402 -217.8897 1018.058947 77 889 953.52947087082 -250.1544 703.37507

12 1 78 1058 880.68753488751 -161.4982 719.1893662 79 887 803.09468317398 -119.5455 683.5491733 80 1676 1179.7745865237 128.5672 1308.341784 81 1775 1541.6708915677 245.2318 1786.902645 82 1759 1772.9513211977 238.2561 2011.207416 83 1093 1552.1037057133 8.704237 1560.807947 84 1217 1388.9039715428 -77.24775 1311.65622

13 1 85 1542 1426.8281115718 -19.6618 1407.166312 86 988 1197.5831536934 -124.4534 1073.129773 87 1510 1291.5648863308 -15.23582 1276.32906

alpha 0.5

beta 0.5

MSE 106744.8

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 890

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Holt Method

Demand Predicted