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© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.

Markets

Jonathon Poskitt, Director, Global Sales Forecasts 18 March 2021

European LV Outlook


2020-6.8%

Macroeconomic rollercoaster

2

USA

2020 GDP GROWTH

Source: Oxford Economics

2021 GDP GROWTH

2020-3.5%

Eurozone ChinaGlobal

20202.3%

2020 – Widespread global recession

2021 – Recovery generally brightening…

2020-3.7%

2021+6.0%

2021+7.0%

2021+4.2%

2021+8.9%


Global Light Vehicle sales

Source: LMC Automotive 3

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Milli

ons

Dec. 2092mn

Feb. 2181mn


All regions see major YoY growth in market activity

4

3.0 3.8

2020 2021

17.0 18.8

2020 2021

16.5 18.4

2020 2021

13.315.6

2020 2021

24.4 26.2

2020 2021

N. America

S. America

Europe China

Rest of AsiaUnits:

millions

Source: LMC Automotive

+28%

+11%

+11%+7%

17%


European backdrop

5Sources: European Commission, Our World in Data

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

EU, Consumer Confidence (Index)

Eurozone Crisis

Shock to EU consumer confidence has persisted as the threat of virus overwhelming healthcare systems ensures restrictions on activity continue

Whilst unemployment is higher than when the crisis began, government support measures ensure impact has been limited

5

11

3238

66108

RussiaFrance

ItalyGermany

EUSpain

USUK

UAEIsrael

Vaccine doses per 100 people

The development and approval of vaccines provides light at the end of the tunnel regarding threat of virus and easing of lockdowns

Vaccine circulation across the region has stuttered and remains risk to forecast in coming months


Summer recoveries ebbed away

6

LV SAAR by country, 2019 =100 Post-lockdown last summer saw

selling rates rebound across the region as pent-up demand and government support measures came through

Increasing in virus transmission and moves to limit movement once again created another headwind to selling rates beyond summer

Year-end sales pulled forward in some markets to beat tax rises or take advantage of ending of incentives schemes. Jan/Feb selling rates struggled in Big 5 — more positive results in Russia/Turkey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2019

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

France Germany Italy Spain UK


© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2019

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21


Turkey

Russia

Summer recoveries ebbed away

Post-lockdown last summer saw selling rates rebound across the region as pent-up demand and government support measures came through

Increasing in virus transmission and moves to limit movement once again created another headwind to selling rates beyond summer

Year-end sales pulled forward in some markets to beat tax rises or take advantage of ending of incentives schemes. Jan/Feb selling rates struggled in Big 5 — more positive results in Russia/Turkey

LV SAAR by country, 2019 =100


SAAR Development

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep-

18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

Sep-

21

Nov

-21

SAAR Mov.Avg.

Total Europe Light Vehicle Market (including CIS)Sa

les

Volu

me

(mn

units

/yea

r)

FY: 20.6mn0%

FY: 20.7mn+0.5%

FY: 16.6mn-20.0%

FY: 18.4mn+11.3%

8Source: LMC Automotive


Base Forecast– Demand by Major Market


Light Vehicle sales (millions)

2.7 2.1 2.3

3.93.2 3.4

2.11.5 1.8

1.51.0 1.1

2.7

1.92.3

1.8

1.61.7

-

5

10

15

20

25

2019 2020 2021

France Germany Italy Spain UK Russia Turkey RoE

20.7

16.618.4

© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 10Source: LMC Automotive

16

18

20

22

20.7

-600k

-550k-420k

-320k-270k -110k

18.4-370k +350k

Composition of decline from 2019 to 2021European Light Vehicle Sales (millions)

2020: 16.6


European demand – recovery with risks

11

Light Vehicle sales (millions)

Source: OE-LMC Global Automotive Scenarios Service

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Downside Risk

Slower vaccine rollout

Limited vaccine effectiveness

More serious macro downturn and/or policy tightening

Auto materials shortage

Upside Risk

Rapid vaccine distribution

Ongoing surge in preference for private ownership and driving

Extended fiscal/macro boost; new or extended targeted automotive support

Latest Forecast


OutlookEuropean LV Production

Automotive HighlightsJustin Cox, Director Global Production, LMC Automotive

18 March 2021


0

20

40

60

80

100

120Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20Ju

l-20

Aug-

20Se

p-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21Fe

b-21

Mar

-21

Apr-2

1M

ay-2

1Ju

n-21

Jul-2

1Au

g-21

Sep-

21O

ct-2

1N

ov-2

1D

ec-2

1

European LV production development (Dec 2020)


• 2021: already expected to have a tough opening quarter:

• Fading pent-up demand, maturing incentives, residual lockdowns were already set to undermine the near-term incoming orders.

• H2 more solid: healthy crop of new models; brighter demand outlook supporting stock-building.

2020: 16.6mn (YoY -22%)2021: 19.85mn (YoY +20%)

2019=100


European LV production development (Mar ‘interim’ 2021)


• March interim forecast:

• Semiconductor supply shortage combining with COVID lockdown extensions.

• H1 2021 forecast cut by 450k: production suspensions, work schedules reduced.

• OEMs intend to recover ‘lost’ output in H2.

• Forecast profile amplified.

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20Ju

l-20

Aug-

20Se

p-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21Fe

b-21

Mar

-21

Apr-2

1M

ay-2

1Ju

n-21

Jul-2

1Au

g-21

Sep-

21O

ct-2

1N

ov-2

1D

ec-2

1

2019=100

H1: -450k H2: +200k

2020: 16.6mn (YoY -22%)2021: 19.6mn (YoY +18%)


European LV production development (Mar ‘downside’ 2021)


• Downside risks:

• Further extensions to COVID measures.

• Chip shortage disruption extends by another quarter, undermines potential for ‘catchup’ in H2.

• Undermines 2021 but provides boost to 2022 outlook.

• Mixed messages from supply base: Reliability of order signals, Price and resource pressures

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20Ju

l-20

Aug-

20Se

p-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21Fe

b-21

Mar

-21

Apr-2

1M

ay-2

1Ju

n-21

Jul-2

1Au

g-21

Sep-

21O

ct-2

1N

ov-2

1D

ec-2

1

2019=100

H1: -645k H2: +10k

2020: 16.6mn (YoY -22%)2021: 19.2mn (YoY +16%)

© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 16

European LV Production Q1 2021 : Mar ‘21 v Dec ‘20


VW:• Production suspensions at several

facilities including Wolfsburg, Emden, Ingolstadt

• Reduced shifts: Mlada Boleslav, Kvasiny, Gyor and Martorell…

• Key impacts: Tiguan, Golf, A3, A4

Ford:• Saarlouis shutdown for several weeks• Closures and short-time working at

Craiova, Valencia and Cologne.• Key impacts: Focus, Kuga, Puma

Daimler:• Shut downs at Rastatt with other plants

including Bremen and Kecskemet disrupted

• Key impacts: A Class, C-Class


Inventory metrics: Europe


5964

60

78

114

59 60

70

60

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mill

ions

Day

s S

uppl

y

Sto

ck L

evel

s

Days Supply


Europe: Model Program Boosts

Launches:BMW iXAudi Q4 e-tronCupra el-BornMercedes EQBTesla Model YToyota Yaris CrossAlfa Romeo TonaleHyundai BayonNissan QashqaiVW BulliVolvo C40…

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4

2021: 50 Model Launches

2020: 30 Model Launches


BEV LV Production by Source: selected key European countries

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Milli

ons

Germany

France

Spain

UKItaly


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Milli

ons

Pan-Europe LV Production Outlook

3.2%

18%7.3% 4.9%

-22.8%

4.2%1.8%2.3% 0.7%

E Europe

W Europe

-4.1%CAGR*E Europe : 4.2%Russia : 6.6%Turkey : 2.2%Hungary : 6.8%Romania : 3.7%

CAGR*W Europe : 2.4%Germany : 3.8%France : 3.4%Spain : 1.5%UK : 1.4%

Pan-Europe CAGR*: 3.1%

*Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2021-2028

-0.4%

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