market update march 21

Current prices for homes on the marketTrends in pricing

Current levels of supply and demandValue metrics

market updateMcMillin Realty's

CHULA VISTA

Sunday March 21, 2010Report for the week of

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The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA this week is$371,000. The 727 homes have been onthe market for an average of 145 days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing

Median List PriceAverage List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 371,000$ 417,367

$ 3,599,900$ 100,000

727145Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 181

65Absorbed This Week*Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 18 %Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 6 %Percent Flip (price increased) 8 %

City Overview CHULA VISTA

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft

Altos Research Value StatisticsMarket Action Index

Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,100

4.02.510

25Cool. Buyer's MarketAltos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

Inventory and days-on-market areclimbing, while the Market Action Indexhas been flat recently. The trends pointto a weakening market.

To get a tightly targeted understandingof homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is25% of the homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes3,233 5.0 3.5 7 181 11 148,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 550,0001 139

Upper-middle 25% of homes2,407 4.0 2.5 8 182 12 244,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 405,2252 158

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,752 3.0 2.5 10 182 9 134,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 335,0003 153

Least expensive 25% of homes1,340 3.0 2.0 46 182 14 146,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 259,9004 131

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trendgraphs below.

2McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA


PRICEDespite this week's down tic, the marketseems to have paused around thisplateau. The Market Action Index is agood leading indicator for thedurability of this shift.

QUARTILE PRICES

Prices have settled at a price plateauacross the board. Prices in all fourquartiles are basically mixed. Look for apersistent shift (up or down) in theMarket Action Index before prices movefrom these current levels.

Often, we find insights by watchingpricing trends within the quartilesegments.



The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately.Note that rising inventory alone doesnot signal a weakening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days onMarket trends to gauge whether buyerinterest is keeping up with availablesupply.



The CHULA VISTA market is currentlyin the Buyer's Market zone (below 30),though not strongly so. The 90-dayMarket Action Index stands this week at25 so buyers should expect findreasonable levels of selection.

The market has shown some evidence ofslowing recently. Both prices andinventory levels are relativelyunchanged in recent weeks. Watch theMarket Action Index for changes as itcan be a leading indicator for pricechanges.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using astatistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.

Not surprisingly given the overallMarket Action Index, all quartiles are inthe Buyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentrate of demand for homes in thequartile. Watch the quartile for changesbefore the overall market shifts. Oftenone end of the market (e.g. the low end)will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES



DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)The properties have been on themarket for an average of 145 days. Halfof the listings have come newly on themarket in the past 77 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILEIt is not uncommon for the higherpriced homes in an area to take longerto sell than those in the lowerquartiles.



91915Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA




Total Inventory

$ 399,000$ 416,162

$ 919,900$ 249,000



13Absorbed This Week

The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91915 this week is$399,000.

THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,352

4.02.5

6Altos Research Value Statistics

4,501 - 6500 sq ft

Market Action Index 25Cool. Buyer's Market


PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New


Avg.DoM


sq ft$ 550,0001 86


sq ft$ 429,9002 177


sq ft$ 375,0003 138

Least expensive 25% of homes1,651 3.0 2.5 8 33 2 14,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 300,0004 143


PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with131 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.

The CHULA VISTA 91915 market iscurrently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone(below 30), though not strongly so. The90-day Market Action Index stands thisweek at 25 so buyers should expect findreasonable levels of selection.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.



DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 136 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 77 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.







Total Inventory

$ 489,500$ 589,564

$ 3,599,900$ 225,000



9Absorbed This Week


THIS WEEK



Median Age

3,008

4.23.5


8,001 - 10,000 sq ft


Demand measured by the MarketAction Index is increasing and days-on-market is holding steady. With moreproperties coming available, conditionsare mildly positive.

PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have generallysettled at a plateau, although Quartile 1has been trending a bit downward inrecent weeks. We'll need to see apersistent shift in the Market ActionIndex before we see prices across theboard move from these levels.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre4,262 5.0 4.5 4 22 2 1$ 667,5001 99

Upper-middle 25% of homes3,564 5.0 3.5 6 22 0 38,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 561,5002 154


sq ft$ 450,0003 218

Least expensive 25% of homes2,069 4.0 2.5 7 22 1 14,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 367,5004 178


PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been steady around theselevels in recent weeks with 88 propertiescurrently available.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 390,000$ 400,390

$ 875,000$ 191,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,196

4.02.5


4,501 - 6500 sq ft


With inventory trending up but days-on-market and the Market Action Indexessentially flat recently, conditionsdon't seem to have strong up or downpull.

PRICEIn this zip code this week saw relativelylittle price change from last week.However, we continue to demonstrate anice up trend in general over the lastseveral weeks.







Avg.DoM


sq ft$ 500,0001 163


sq ft$ 420,0002 109


sq ft$ 360,0003 159

Least expensive 25% of homes1,591 3.0 2.5 7 52 1 3Less than

4,500 sq ft$ 310,0004 151

In a market where prices are risingfairly consistently, price per square footis essentially flat. This often impliesthat new homes coming on the marketare pricier, and also larger than olderhomes. As a result the value one canbuy stays the same.

PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been falling in recentweeks with 205 properties available thisweek. Note that declining inventoryalone does not signal a strengtheningmarket. Look to the Market ActionIndex to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 285,000$ 299,196

$ 1,390,000$ 100,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

1,617

3.52.046

Altos Research Value Statistics

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft


The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventory isclimbing. These trends imply aweakening market.

PRICEAgain this week in this zip code we seea downward notch for prices. Pricinghas been weak in recent weeks andversus their absolute-high level. At thispoint, we will be looking for a persistentupward shift in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator for atrough in prices.







Avg.DoM


sq ft$ 385,0001 143

Upper-middle 25% of homes1,640 3.0 2.0 45 37 2 36,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 300,0002 167

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,473 3.0 2.0 45 37 4 16,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 259,0003 95


sq ft$ 211,6504 190

Despite recently falling prices, the priceper square foot has stayed reasonablyflat. This implies that there's a portionof the market being priced at apremium. You can investigate thiscondition in the quartile details.

PRICE AND VALUE





MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 354,950$ 454,903

$ 2,999,500$ 170,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

1,787

3.72.528

Altos Research Value Statistics

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft



PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode hovering around these currentlevels, even though they bumped up abit this week. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index beforewe see prices move significantly fromhere.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have generallysettled at a plateau, although Quartile 1has been trending a bit downward inrecent weeks. We'll need to see apersistent shift in the Market ActionIndex before we see prices across theboard move from these levels.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,905 5.0 3.0 14 39 4 3$ 649,0001 159


sq ft$ 399,0002 174

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,592 3.0 2.0 45 39 1 36,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 325,0003 126


sq ft$ 249,9004 98


PRICE AND VALUE





MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET


About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and availablepublicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

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market update march 21

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