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market trendsFor week ending January 12, 2018

market trendsjanuary 12, 2018

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Beef, Veal & Lamb Beef production last week declined 18.1% due to the holiday and was 2.4% less than the same week last year. Beef outputduring the first few months of 2018 is forecasted by the USDA to track near 2% above the previous year, but stronger pro-duction expansion is anticipated thereafter as evident by more strong cattle placements into feedlots during November. The December 1st cattle on feed inventory was 12.4% larger than the prior year with placements into feedlots during November higher by 13.9%. The three-month average year-over-year gain in cattle placements ending in November was 12.5% more than 2016. Look for beef end cut prices to remain supported in the near term.

Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year

Live Cattle (Steer) Increasing Short Higher

Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Short Higher

Ground Beef 81/19 Increasing Good Lower

Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Lower

109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Good Higher

109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Good Higher

112a Ribeye (ch) Increasing Good Lower

112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Good Higher

114a Chuck , Shlder Cld(ch) Increasing Good Lower

116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Good Higher

116 Chuck (ch) Increasing Good Higher

116b Chuck Tender (ch) Increasing Good Higher

120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Higher

120a Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Higher

121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher

121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Higher

121e Cap & Wedge Increasing Good Lower

167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Increasing Good Higher

168 Inside Round (ch) Increasing Good Lower

169 Top Round (ch) Increasing Good Lower

171b Outside Round (ch) Increasing Good Lower

174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Increasing Good Higher

174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Good Lower

180 0x1 Strip (ch) Increasing Good Lower

180 0x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Good Lower

184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Good Higher

184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Increasing Good Higher

184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Good Higher

185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Higher

185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Good Higher

189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Good Lower

189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Good Higher

189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Higher

193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Good Higher

50% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher


75% Trimmings Steady Good Higher

85% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher

90% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher

90% Imported Beef (frz) Steady Good Higher

95% Imported Beef (frz) Steady Good Higher

Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Higher

Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Higher


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Grains Cold weather has gripped a better part of the U.S. this week including winter wheat country. There is concern that damage to the winter wheat crop has occurred. But, this will not be made known until the spring. The greater longer-term risk in the wheat markets remains to the upside.

Dairy The cheese markets continue to trade at relatively engaging levels for buyers due in part to ample supplies. As of November 30th, domestic cold storage cheese holdings were 6.4% larger than the previous year and a record for the date. Further, the net drawdown in supplies was smaller than the respective five and ten-year averages for the month. Milk production is being slowed by cold temperatures which could bring some temporary support to cheese prices. The November 30th butter inven-tory was down 1.5% from 2016 but the second largest for the date since 1993.


Cheese Barrels (CME) Increasing Good Lower

Cheese Blocks (CME) Increasing Good Lower

American Cheese Decreasing Good Lower

Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Good Lower

Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Good Lower

Provolone Cheese Steady Good Same

Parmesan Cheese Increasing Good Lower

Butter (CME) Increasing Good Lower

Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Ample Lower

Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Lower

Class 1 Base Steady Good Lower

Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Lower

Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower

Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower


Soybeans, bushel Increasing Good Lower

Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Good Lower

Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Good Lower

Corn, bushel Increasing Good Lower

Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Good Lower

High Fructose Corn Syrup Increasing Good Same

Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Good Higher

Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Good Lower

HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Good Higher

DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Good Higher

Durum Wheat, bushel Increasing Short Higher

Pinto Beans, lb Steady Good Lower

Black Beans, lb Steady Good Lower

Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Higher


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Pork Pork output last week fell 14.3% due to the holiday but was 3.1% larger than the same week last year. The USDA is forecast-ing pork production expansion near 4.5% for 2018, but this could be overstated. The December 1st U.S. hog and pig herd, according to the USDA, was 2.4% larger than the prior year with the swine breeding herd up 1.1%. Further, annual pig per litter growth has been about average, near 1%. If pork output is tamer than expected during the winter, it could be supportive of prices.


Live Hogs Increasing Ample Higher

Sow Decreasing Ample Higher

Belly (bacon) Increasing Good Lower

Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Good Higher

Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Lower

Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Lower

Loin (bone in) Increasing Good Lower

Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Lower

Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Good Higher

Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Higher

Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Good Higher

SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Good Lower

42% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower



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Poultry For the week ending December 23rd, chicken production fell 2.3% from the previous week but was 7.5% larger than the same week last year due in part to the days landing on holidays. The six-week total of chicken output was 3% larger than 2016, but year-over-year production expansion is expected to slow. The November broiler type chick hatch was just 1.8% bigger than the prior year. And although the number of broiler layers as of December 1st was 4.8% bigger than 2016, the flock was older and placement data suggests year-over-year number gains for the flock will tighten considerably into the spring. This could generally be supportive of the chicken markets.

Eggs


Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Higher

Medium Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Higher

Liquid Whole Eggs Decreasing Short Higher

Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher

Liquid Egg Yolks Increasing Short Higher

Egg Breaker Stock Central Decreasing Short Higher


Whole Birds WOG-Nat Increasing Good Higher

Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Lower

Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower

Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Good Higher

Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Good Higher

Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Higher

Tenderloin Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher

Legs (whole) Increasing Good Higher

Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Good Higher

Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Good Higher

Thighs, Boneless Increasing Good Higher


Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Decreasing Good Lower

Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Steady Good Lower


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Seafood The shrimp markets are mostly tracking near year ago levels despite strong imports during the early fall. U.S. shrimp imports in October were 16.4% bigger than the previous year and the largest for any month since at least October 2010. If big U.S. shrimp imports persevere, it could keep a lid on shrimp prices this winter as most is sourced internationally.


Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Good Higher

Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Good Lower

Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Good Higher

Snow Crab, frz Steady Good Higher

Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Good Lower

Cod Filet, frz Steady Good Higher

Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Good Higher

Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Good Lower

Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Good Lower


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Paper and Plastic Products


WOOD PULP (PAPER)

NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Higher

42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Higher

PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)

PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Higher

PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Higher

PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Higher

Retail Price Change from Prior Month

Description Nov ‘17 Oct ‘17 Sept ‘17

Beef and Veal Increasing Decreasing Decreasing

Dairy Decreasing Increasing Increasing

Pork Decreasing Decreasing Increasing

Chicken Decreasing Increasing Decreasing

Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Decreasing Decreasing

Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Decreasing

Various MarketsCoffee prices found support to start this week due in part to a firming Brazilian Real. The outlook of the Brazilian currency remains soft, which if realized, should temper the upside for coffee prices for the next several months. History suggests the downside risk in the coffee markets is nominal.


Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Good Higher

Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Good Higher

Coffee lb ICE Increasing Good Lower

Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Lower

Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Lower

Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Good Lower

Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Higher


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Produce The tomato markets remain historically inflated but well off their highs made last month. Tomato shipments for the week ending December 23rd improved rather nicely from the previous week but were down a whopping 48% from the same week last year. Cold weather this week in Florida could hamper the harvest, but supplies are anticipated to improve as the winter progresses which should weigh on prices. December 1st domestic potato stocks were 3.2% less than the prior year while holdings from Idaho were lower by 6%. Lettuce, romaine and leaf items are steady, but there are quality issues. Lemons and oranges are in a very extreme market. Cilantro, broccoli, tender leaf items (baby spinach, clipped spinach, arugula and baby kale blends), green onions, and cauliflower are escalated and we are seeing shorter supplies. Spinach may hit a gap in supply, while berries are steady and squashes are readily available. Basil and thyme are also limited this week.

The East experienced a cold snap at the end of last week and is expecting another non-freezing cold spell at the end of this week. This could potentially slow down supply & affect quality. We will update you as much as possible.

Please note: Inbound & Outbound freight rates are up significantly throughout the country. This is due to a limited supply of trucks as well as new E-Log regulations.

MARKET ALERT• Arugula & Wild Arugula – ESCALATED

• Asparagus – ESCALATED

• Avocados – ESCALATED

• Baby Kale Blends – ESCALATED

• Baby Spinach – ESCALATED

• Broccoli – ESCALATED

• Cauliflower – ESCALATED

• Cilantro – ESCALATED

• Green Onions – ESCALATED

• Lemons – EXTREME

• Mushrooms – ESCALATED

• Oranges (Small sizes) – EXTREME

• Rapini – ESCALATED

• Potatoes – ESCALATED

• Snow & Sugar Snap Peas – ESCALATED

• Tomatoes (Cherry, Grape, Roma, Round)

– ESCALATED


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Apples & PearsThe market is unchanged. The majority of storage supplies are abundant, but 56- thru 88-count Granny Smith apples are scarce. Newer varieties on the market include Autumn Glory, Envy, Jazz, Kanzi, Opal, Pacific Rose, and Smitten. Quality is very good: sugar levels range from 14 to 18 Brix. The Pear market is level; storage volume is high, especially 100- to 120-count sizes. Bartlett supplies will be depleted by the first week of February. Quality is very good: sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Brix.

ArtichokesSteady market with higher prices. Quality is good.

ArugulaESCALATED - Supplies are limited and we are seeing quality issues due to cooler weather.

AsparagusPrices are elevated; supplies are expected to increase now that the holiday season has ended. Quality is very good: stalks are straight and firm, tips are tight, and flavor is pleas-antly grassy.

AvocadosThe market is high; Mexican stocks remain limited, especial-ly 60-count and smaller sizes. Quality ranges from good to very good: oil content is high, texture is creamy, and flavor is subtly nutty.

BeansEast: Very limited supply is available mostly from South FL as the lake-region was severely injured by a freeze a few weeks ago. Volume will continue to be sporadic for another few weeks. FOBs have increased a few dollars once again.

BananasDemand remains firm and quality is good, but we are seeing short supplies across the country and expect a shortage to continue through 2018 due to virus impacts.

BeansEast: Very limited supply is available mostly from South FL as the lake-region was severely injured by a freeze a few weeks ago. Volume will continue to be sporadic for another few weeks. FOBs have increase a few dollars once again.

West: Although good volume is coming from MX, some issues with quality & labor force are keeping prices high.

Berries:BlackberriesPrices are low; Mexican supplies are ample. Quality is very good; berries are plump and juicy with sweet, yet tangy flavor. Sugar levels range from 12 to 13 Brix.

BlueberriesThe Mexican market is low; Chilean prices are a bit higher. Overall stocks are sufficient. Quality is very good: berries have deep blue, firm skins and flesh that tastes mildly sweet.

RaspberriesThe market is stable. California production has slowed, but Mexican stocks are ample. Quality is very good: color is deep red and flavor is tangy, yet sweet. Sugar levels range from 13 to 14 Brix.

StrawberriesCalifornia prices are high; supplies are limited due to chal-lenging weather and harvesting transitions. Overall quality is good, but ordering for quick turns is recommended.

Bok ChoyQuality is average and we are seeing some higher quotes on WGA cartons.

BroccoliPrices continue to climb. Erratic weather conditions have reduced yields in the Arizona/ California desert region and Mexico. California quality is very good: heads are deep green and compact with earthy flavor.

Produce


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Produce (continued)

Brussels SproutsMarkets are improving as additional inventory becomes available. Quality is good.

CantaloupeWe are seeing decent volumes of offshore fruit arriving on both coasts, with fair demand fruit is on the large side mostly 9’s and very few 12’s and 15’s. The overall quality of the off shore fruit looks good with a green to cream cast and very good internal color and descent sugars. We will be in the offshore fruit through April until we start back in the desert around the first of May.

CarrotsDue to the heat and rain, we are seeing some quality issues and a shortage on jumbo supplies as well as tables and cellos. This market is improving, but prices are still higher.

CauliflowerThe market remains elevated; stocks are tight.

CeleryPrices are stable at low levels. The Florida season has begun, but cold weather is slowing growth.

CilantroESCALATED - Supplies are limited and we are seeing quality issues due to cooler weather.

CornSweet corn supplies are very good out of South Florida; however, we could see this firm up once the assessments come in from the freeze.

CucumbersEast: Mostly offshore supplies are in the picture now with very limited volume coming from FL. Quality is great on the imports. Pricing is up just a bit due to a little snug supply. However, volume should continue to increase as more growers come on board.

West: Mainland MX continues to press forward with good numbers. Some shady skies and cooler temperatures have slowed down growth which is pushing FOBs up. Quality is good.

English CucumberThere are excellent supplies crossing through Nogales and McAllen.

EggplantEast: FL supply has dwindled about after running into a few

quality problems. Many are looking to the west for better results. FOBs are a bit active with prices up.

West: MX has excellent supply & quality. Prices are cheap and steady week over week.

FennelSupplies for the week will be good and quality is good.

GarlicEXTREME - We have now fully transitioned from common storage garlic to cold storage product. Fortunately to date, our recoveries are faring relatively fine through the cracking/peeling process. Concerning the future/2018 crop, we are 85% completed with our planting season. Provided the weather (and that Mother Nature cooperates), we should finish planting within the next two weeks. In the coming months, we’ll hope for cold enough weather and decent rainfall (similar to last year) to help facilitate the growth of the bulbs.

GingerChinese ginger supplies are steady. Quality is good.

GrapesMarket steady as we are still shipping some California fruit and should be done by mid-January., There are some Peruvian arriving on the east coast and are starting to see some better volumes arriving from Chile on both coasts. The first break bulk vessels out of Chile will not be arriving until after the first of the year, so we hope have a smooth transi-tion without any gaps on grapes. The overall quality of the California fruit is good, but this fruit is all storage fruit and on the greens we are repacking some but for the most part fruit is good and eats very well and holding up good. The Chilean crop is of normal volumes and the weather has been good, so we are expecting very nice quality.


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Produce (continued)

Green CabbageSupply is good on both coasts, quality is good.

Red CabbageQuality and sizing have been great with good color. Market is stable.

Green OnionESCALATED - Iced: We are seeing a shortage in supply due to demand of the holiday pull. Expect higher prices.

HoneydewWe are seeing some off shore and Mexico fruit here on the west and good volumes on the east as well. The Mexico volumes will be very light until around April , and will be dependent on offshore through April. The first fruit is a bit green but cuts nice and sugars are descent, We will start to see better volumes in the next few weeks, but right now fruit is on the tighter side especially on the 6’s and 8’s fruit is mostly 5’ and 4’s. We will also be dependent on the offshore fruit through April, until we start back in the California desert the first of May.

JicamaPrices are firming up and inventories are lighter. We are seeing some quality and shelf life issues in storage product.

Kale (Green)Quality is average and supplies are fair.

Baby Kale BlendsESCALATED - Baby kale blends are extremely tight right now, with increased prices and major quality issues in the fields. This setback is forecasted to last for at least another week or two.

KiwiCalifornia crops are now in full swing with ample supply available and showing excellent quality. This new crop will extend all the way through to February.

LemonsMarket very strong with excellent demand and some sizes demand exceeds supply. We are harvesting in Dist 3 (desert) and also going in a light way here in dist 1 (Central Valley), we are gassing fruit in both areas and you will see some checkerboard color but for the most part quality is good, just like the oranges we will hope to see better color break here in Dist. 1 as our temperatures cool down which will promote better color break and allow for less gassing hours. We hope to be done gassing on lemons by the first of the year. The overall crop size out of dist 3 is about 20% lighter than last year and here in Dist. 1 about 15% lighter. We expect the

market to stay fairly strong with lighter volumes out of both districts and with domestic and export demand very good.

Lettuce:ButterPrices are stable. Quality is good.

Green Leaf/Variety LettuceThe market is weak. Recent cold weather is causing epidermal blistering and peeling; weights are lower than normal, as crews must trim damaged leaves

IcebergThe market is weak; volume is high. Recent low temperatures are reducing palletized iceberg lettuce weights.

RomaineSupplies will be light for the next couple of weeks due to ice in the fields. Quality is average. We are still seeing heavy rib and some twisting. Pricing is a wide range due to the quality issues.

Romaine HeartsSupplies will be normal for the next few weeks. Quality has improved, as most issues with quality can be peeled off. Pricing is a wide range due to quality.

LimesPrices are stable; supplies are sufficient. Quality is good: blanching and scarring are minor problems.

NapaSupplies are steady and quality is good.


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OnionsAll indications are showing that supplies are significantly shorter than previous seasons. It is likely that we will see pricing remain elevated as demand exceeds supplies. Sizing is peaking mostly on mediums and jumbos with fewer big onions, but size overall has become better. Transportation in this region has been the largest factor keeping pricing where it is as trucks have been extremely tight. This is forcing heavier movement from regions outside of the northwest which has forced that area to keep pricing where it is at.

OrangesMarket is very strong with excellent demand across the board. We are in full swing on our California navels and the overall quality is looking good with sugars are still around 11-13 and acid levels are minimal, so fruit is eating good. We are done gassing fruit as we have had several cold night in the high 20’s and a few nights that dipped to 25 but not for a long period of time, we are seeing some damage in the low lying areas but just minimal. The forecast is for mild weather for the next 2-weeks and not any rain at all which is needed in a big way. The overall crop is about 15-20% lighter than normal, therefore smaller fruit will become very tight by the first of the year and it will be a battle through the year on 88’s and smaller as most blocks right now are peaking on 72’s followed by 88’s. We will keep you posted going forward.

Parsley (Curly, Italian)Quality and supplies are fair.

Green Bell PepperEast: The increased supply from all parts of FL is showing signs of great quality and sizing. Look for prices to remain steady for another week until the results of the cooler temps is uncovered.

West: Great supply is still coming from MX. Great quality, thick walls, and good size availability are being reported. FOBs are steady for next week.

Jalapeño PepperEast: Florida has decent supply still coming out of the region. Quality is good with steady prices.

West: Sonora & Sinaloa are in their peak production time with great quality and heat levels. Prices remain low.

Red & Yellow Bell PepperPrices are up. Florida stocks are tight due to low tempera-tures; demand has shifted to Mexico. Quality is average: discoloration, odd shape, and occasional scarring are slight issues in Florida.

PineapplePrices are low; stocks are abundant. Quality is good: fruit is juicy and tangy, yet sweet. Sugar levels range from 13 to 16 Brix.

Idaho PotatoesDemand in the state is fair and prices are steady. This week is a short production week for all operations and next week will be similar. If tradition holds true, there should be a very good demand for the first two/three weeks of January. Prices should also remain steady. The transportation problems will continue to have adverse effects in this market.

RapiniESCALATED - Supplies are very limited and prices are very high. Quality is average.

RadishesQuality is good and supply is slowing down. Expect to see stronger markets through the summer.

Salad BlendsPrices are level; volume is average. Quality is good. Inspec-tors are vigilantly monitoring core material/seeder and internal burn problems for the best packs.

Snow and Sugar Snap PeasESCALATED - Snow and sugar snap peas are in high demand and markets are extremely tight.

Produce (continued)


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Spinach (Bunched)WATCHLIST - Supplies are limited and prices are rising, so we may see a gap in supply. The colder nights and warm days have prohibited the growth of this item.

Spinach (Baby)ESCALATED - Baby and clipped spinach supplies are low. We are seeing average to poor quality.

Spring MixPrices are steady; supplies are sufficient. Quality is average: early breakdown is an occasional issue.

Yellow Squash / ZucchiniEast: FL & Import squashes are both coming steadily into the market place. FOBs are down. Domestic quality is still seeing a bit of scarring but has improved. Offshore looks nice. Pricing could move upward as cold weather slows the growing cycle.

West: Mexico’s season has been bountiful the last few weeks with great supplies coming from the area. Prices are flat for next week. However, they have seen some cooler tempera-tures and overcast skies, which can mean a slower growth rate. Quality is great.

TomatoesEast RoundsOur South Florida crop is still ramping up, however, a previous wave of cooler temperatures just above freezing is slowing down the crop. Another wave of non-freezing temperatures is due in towards the end of the week. Ex-tra-large is a bit snugger, but no major supply concern. Large and medium sizes are more readily available. We’re looking at about 14 days before supplies reach normal levels (pending weather of course). FOBs have dropped once again and will continue to do so as volume increases. The crop is producing excellent quality.

RomasRomas are still a bit slower to adjust downward versus rounds. Limited trucks from the Nogales region has put pressure on the east to perform. In addition, cooler tem-peratures have slowed down supply. Thus, resulting in FOBs pushing upward. Quality is still great.

GrapesWeather is the hot topic in the east this week. The same story applies for grapes. Colder temps settling in have delayed volume. This is putting some pressure on FOBs to go up moving into next week. Look for bulk to increase and pints to go up. Quality is excellent.

CherriesSupply and demand are both steady, resulting in steady FOBs. Quality is great.

West/Mexico RoundsThe final volume is trickling in from Eastern MX & Baja while Culiacan continues to build momentum. All sizes are more readily available versus last week. Normal supply levels are expected to be reached around the 2nd-3rd week of January. FOBs have dropped significantly and will continue to do so until the market finally reaches normalcy. Quality is excellent.

RomasRebounding nicely, romas fall another few dollars in the west. Culiacan’s volume is shaping up nicely with good supply on all sizes. Expect markets to balance around the 3rd week of January. Quality is excellent.

GrapesSome cooler weather has slowed things down, however, supplies are still readily available. Thus, prices are down con-siderably. Quality is great.

CherriesWith a healthy supply from Nogales and firm demand, cherry prices are steady for next week. Southern CA still has a few loads trickling out, but at a higher price point. Quality is excellent.

WatermelonsPrices are slightly lower than last week; expect even weaker markets next week. Stocks are sufficient in both areas. Minor problems include under-ripeness, thick green/white rinds, and light-colored flesh.

Produce (continued)

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