market situation and outlook 2016-201872nd session committee on commodity problems 26 –28...
TRANSCRIPT
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 2016-2018
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 2
Significance of Tropical Products to Food Security
Sugar, 100%
Tea, 73%
Tea, 89%
Sugar, 37%
Bananas, >100%
Swaziland
Sri Lanka
Kenya
Guyana
Ecuador
Percentage of Food Import Bill covered by Export Earnings of Tropical Products in selected Countries (2016)
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Monthly Price movements of Tropical Products 2000-2018
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ap
r-0
0
Oct
-00
Ap
r-0
1
Oct
-01
Ap
r-0
2
Oct
-02
Ap
r-0
3
Oct
-03
Ap
r-0
4
Oct
-04
Ap
r-0
5
Oct
-05
Ap
r-0
6
Oct
-06
Ap
r-0
7
Oct
-07
Ap
r-0
8
Oct
-08
Ap
r-0
9
Oct
-09
Ap
r-1
0
Oct
-10
Ap
r-1
1
Oct
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Oct
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Oct
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Oct
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Oct
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Oct
-16
Ap
r-1
7
Oct
-17
Ap
r-1
8
Global Benchmark Price Indices for Sugar and Tropical Beverages (January 2000 = 100)
Sugar Coffee Tea FAO Food Price Index
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Global Benchmark Price Indices for Jute, Hard Fibres and Cotton (January 2000=100)
4
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Ap
r-0
0
Oct
-00
Ap
r-0
1
Oct
-01
Ap
r-0
2
Oct
-02
Ap
r-0
3
Oct
-03
Ap
r-0
4
Oct
-04
Ap
r-0
5
Oct
-05
Ap
r-0
6
Oct
-06
Ap
r-0
7
Oct
-07
Ap
r-0
8
Oct
-08
Ap
r-0
9
Oct
-09
Ap
r-1
0
Oct
-10
Ap
r-1
1
Oct
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Oct
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Oct
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Oct
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Oct
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Oct
-16
Ap
r-1
7
Oct
-17
Ap
r-1
8
Cotton Sisal Abaca Jute Coir
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 5
Market Development for selected commodities Tea global Market Developments 2010-2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1/5/02 1/6/02 1/7/02 1/8/02 1/9/02
Chart Title
Open High Low Close
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es Kgs per capita
Production Consumption
Exports Per capita consumption- China (Mainland)
Per capita consumption -India
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Sugar Global Market Developments 2010-2016
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US
cen
ts/l
b
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Production World domestic utilisation Exports Sugar ISA daily prices
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Jute and Hard Fibres Global Market Development2010-2016
7
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Production of coir fibre and coir yarn
Production of abaca
Production of sisal, henequen and other similar hardfibres
World production of jute, kenaf and allied Fibres
World exports of raw and processed jute, kenaf andallied fibres (in fibre equivalent)
World exports of coir fibre and coir yarn fromproducing countries (total including coir pith from SriLanka)
World exports of sisal and henequen fibres andmanufactures from producing countries
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Global Production of Bananas and Tropical Fruits
8
95
100
105
110
115
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Tropical Fruits Bananas * Preliminary estimate
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 9
Bananas Global Market Developments 2012-2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
World Export EU Imports US Imports
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 10
Tropical Fruits Global Market Developments 2012-2017
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
World Exports EU Imports US Imports
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 11
Global Benchmark Price Indices for Selected Tropical Fruits2008-2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
January 2008 = 100
Avocado Pineapple Banana
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Key factors likely to affect trade in tropical products
Supply side
• Extreme weather events under climate change
• Spread of pests and diseases (e.g. fruit fly, TR4, BBTV)
• Labor shortage in fast urbanization context (Jute, tea...)
• Export promotion in major producing countries
• Product diversification & new niches (Jute, sisal, coir...)
12
Demand side
• Rising purchasing power in emerging economies
• Health & fitness trends in major markets
• Rising awareness of sustainability issues (labels, taxes?)
• Market access: both liberalization & protectionism
trends
• Impacts of ICT (e.g. blockchain, e-commerce, …)
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy
Suggested action by the Committee
The Committee is invited to take note of the market situation and outlook for the various food and agricultural commodities
and to discuss their implications in terms of food security for the current and coming seasons. The Committee may also wish
to:
Stress the importance of FAO’s commodity market monitoring, assessment and outlook work and reports for improved
market transparency and informed policy decisions;
Request FAO to strengthen these activities and support Members in this regard in an effort to achieve target 2c of the
second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2), which calls on governments to “Adopt measures to ensure the proper
functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including
on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility”;
Urge governments and other stakeholders to keep enhancing the monitoring of supply, demand, trade and prices of food
and agricultural commodities and to make the data and information publicly accessible in a timely manner.
13
72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 14
THANK YOU
www.fao.org/economic/est/trade-and-markets-home