market pulse-march 2016 (public)

8/18/2019 Market Pulse-March 2016 (Public)

1/45

MARKET PULSEMarch 2016

1


2/45

Survey Methodology

• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®

• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.

2


3/45

MARKET CONDITIONS

3


4/45

Number of FloorCalls Continue Rising

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

67 67 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

I n d e x

Index (>50 is positive)

4

SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS® Market Pulse Survey


5/45

Floor Calls from PotentialClients Rebound

56

45

38 38

51

67

50

41

65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2014-Q12014-Q22014-Q32014-Q42015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q1

I n d e x


5

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS® Market Pulse Survey


6/45

ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Rising

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was …

72 70 71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

I n d e x


6



7/45

Listing Appointments/Client PresentationsUp

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2014-Q12014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4

2015-Q12015-Q2

2015-Q32015-Q4

2016-Q1

60

53

45

38

50

70

53

37

68

I n d

e x


Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your marketarea this month was …

7



8/45

Open HouseTraffic Down

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …

77 77 74

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

I n d e x


8



9/45

Open HouseTraffic Rose QTQ

Q: Please indicate the movement of each of the following in your market area compared to last month & lastyear – Open house traffic

0

20

40

60

8067

55

4440

54

68

50

40

73

I n d e x


9



10/45

Auctions on the Rise

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

35

4444

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

I n d e x


10



11/45

Auctions Hit New Quarterly Peak

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

0

10

20

30

40

50

2928

23

30 32 33 32

44

I n d e x


11



12/45

All Cash Purchases Bounce Back

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

5054 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16

I n d e x


12



13/45

All Cash Purchases Increasing

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

41 38

4755

41 44

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1

I n d e x


13



14/45

Lack of Housing Inventory Remains #1Concern

14

5.2%

5.4%

7.5%

13%

18%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Lending & financing

Housing bubble

Slow down in economic growth

Home prices overinflated

Decline in housing affordability

Lack of Inventory

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?



15/45

REALTORS® Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory

15

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%30%

35%

40%

45%

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Inventory Affordability



16/45

Fewer REALTORS®Optimistic about MarketConditions

Over the NextYear

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

74

6460

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

I n d e x


16



17/45

More REALTORS® Expect Mostly Similar/Better

MarketConditionsOver the NextYear

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80 73

6256

65

75

67

59 61 63

I n

d e x

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

17



18/45

Why REALTORS® Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen

Increase in rates, instability in politics, declinein economy.

Overinflated prices.

Layoffs in oil industry.

Buyer apprehension about the economy andnew housing bubble.

Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

18



19/45

LASTTRANSACTION

19


20/45

Most Properties Selling Over/AtAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

M a r - 1 6

Below At Over

20



21/45


22/45

Premium PaidOverAsking Price Stable

6.7% 7.5% 7.9%

10% 10% 10% 10%9.0%

10%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0% Average

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

22



23/45

% Paid Below Asking Price Dropped

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

Nov

-15

Dec

-15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11%-9.6 -11%-10%-12%-13%-13%-13%-12%-9.6

23



24/45

Discount onAsking Price Dropped Slightly

-5.7%

-10% -11% -10% -10%

-13% -12%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1

Average

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

24



25/45

1/2 Properties Received MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

62%

75%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

25



26/45

Slightly Fewer Properties Received MultipleOffers

0%

10%

20%30%

40%

50%

60%

70% 69% 66%

61%58% 60%

67%63% 65% 64%

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

26



27/45

Number ofOffers Increasing

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.7

3.13.3

Average


27



28/45

Average Number ofOffers Rebounded

0.0

0.5

1.01.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5 3.1 2.8

2.5

2.4 2.6

3.1

2.62.5

2.8

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

28



29/45

MultipleOffers HigherYTY

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6+

27%

23% 21%

11%

6.0%

12%

38%

22% 20%

4.6% 5.5% 6.7%

Number of Offers

16-Mar 15-Mar


29



30/45

Number of 3+ Offers Increasing

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

M a r - 1 6

1-2 3+


30



31/45

3+Offers Higher in Every PriceCategoryYTY Except

below $200K &Over $2M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Under $200k $200-$299k $300-$399k $400-$499k $500-$749k $750-$999k $1M-$1.99M $2M+

28%

41%

58%

52% 54% 55%

52%

57%

44%

23%

28%

38%

45%

50%54%

57%

16-Mar 15-Mar


31



32/45

About 1/5 Properties Had Listing Price Reductions

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

23%

26%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

M a r - 1 6

32



33/45

Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

Reductions Dropped

25%31%

28%25%

28% 31%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%20%

25%

30%

35%

2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1

Average

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

33



34/45

Proportion of BuyersWhoWere Renters Rising

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

47%

42%

52%

34



35/45

Proportion of Previous RentersContinues Increasing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50% 46%

40%

34%40% 40%

38% 41% 43% 44%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

35



36/45

More Sellers Becoming Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

13% 13%

21%

36



37/45

Proportion of Sellers Becoming Renters Dips

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

19% 21%

18% 20%

15% 15% 16% 16%14%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter after selling the property?

37



38/45

Share of First-timeBuyers Up in FebruaryLong RunAverage: 31%

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

40%

35%35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%25%

30%

35%

40%

45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average

38



39/45

Share of First-Time BuyersShrankSlightly

32%28% 30%

35%32% 30% 31%

33% 32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2014-Q12014-Q22014-Q32014-Q42015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q1

Average

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

39



40/45

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

78% 77% 81%

16% 15% 13%

5.2% 3.9% 1.5%1.5% 3.9% 4.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

M a r - 1 6

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

40



41/45

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q:What was the intended use of the property?

75% 75% 76% 78% 75% 76% 77%

18% 16% 16% 16% 18% 16% 16%

3% 6% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2016-Q1

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

41



42/45

Proportion of International BuyersUpLong RunAverage:6.1%

Q:Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

42


5.0%3.8%

8.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

% International Buyers Long Run Average


43/45

Proportion of International Buyers RemainsConstant

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

5.0% 5.0% 5.6%

8.5%

5.8% 6.0% 6.0% 5.9% 6.1%

43

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?



44/45

Top 10Counties of Respondents

Q: In which county do you live?

44

February 2016 March 20161 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 Riverside San Diego

3 San Diego Riverside

4 Orange Orange

5 Sacramento Sacramento

6 San Bernardino Alameda

7 Santa Clara Santa Clara

8 Alameda Contra Costa

9 Contra Costa San Bernardino

10 Sonoma Fresno



45/45

What are REALTORS® Saying?

Pocket listings put onto Zillow and other sites are makingthings difficult.

Personal income has not gone up. This is why sellers can’tafford to move up.

Very low inventory.

Still seeing multiple over askign offers on properties in goodcondition.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

45


market pulse-march 2016 (public)

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