market overview diesel emissions conference india 2012 wb
TRANSCRIPT
Diesel EmissionsMarket OverviewIndia
By Astrid Tsai, Conference Manager, Integer Research.
Based on industry research and Integer’s series of emissions publications.
Sponsors for the Diesel Emissions Conference India 2012:
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Media Partners
Lunch SponsorsEnvironmental Sponsor Silver Sponsors
BS IV fuel
BS IV legislation & technology
Fuel efficiency standards
OBD II enforcement
AdBlue investment
Heavy Duty
NRMM
Light-Duty
Exhibitors
Industry Partners
12 –14 September 2012, New Delhi, India
Diesel Emissions Conference India 2012
Market Overview
India is home to the fourth-largest commercial vehicle market in the world, with auto imports averaging $3 billion per year. In 2010, the rate of increase of vehicle sales in India exceeded that in China, due to sound economic growth, infrastructure development, and the introduction of stimulus packages by the Indian government. India also saw a 29.16% increase in sales for light-duty vehicles in 2010/11. This growth continued into 2011, and has not gone unnoticed.
The world’s largest commercial vehicle maker, Beiqi Foton Motor, is set to enter the Indian market, investing $387 million to build a factory and launch a full range of commercial vehicles.
Cummins Group, one of the biggest manufacturers of engines and aftertreatment systems in the world, confirmed that it will invest $500 million in India over the next five years. Its plans for expansion include increases in the output of light-duty diesel engines, power generation systems and emission solutions.
Heavy-duty vehicles
In India, 13 cities are regulated by BS IV (Euro IV equivalent) standards, with 50 additional cities to be included by 2015. The Indian government has not yet confirmed a date for implementation of BS IV nationwide.The availability of high quality diesel continues to be an important factor in determining when the next stage of emissions legislation can realistically be achieved. India consumes little BS IV fuel at present, with BS III fuel used by the majority of diesel vehicles nationwide. However, like China, there is strong interest amongst stakeholders in the possibility of achieving BS IV legislation nationwide with BS III quality fuel.
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) technology is considered by many as the best solution to meet BS IV and beyond in India. However, there has been little progress in establishing an AdBlue infrastructure, necessary for SCR-equipped trucks to operate smoothly. Alternative fuels (especially CNG) have become increasingly popular amongst commercial vehicle manufacturers for their environmental benefits. It also forms part of an ongoing strategy to reduce India’s dependence on imported fossil fuels.
The introduction of On-board diagnostics (OBD) II requirements from 2013 will mark a big step for all vehicle types. However, details on how this will be enforced are still to be discussed.
Non-Road Mobile Machinery (NRMM)
Construction equipment and agricultural tractors in India are currently regulated by separate emissions standards. Bharat (CEV) Stage III (US Tier 2/3 equivalent) for construction equipment has been in force nationwide since April 2004. For agricultural tractors, Bharat (Trem) Stage III (US tier 3 equivalent) was implemented nationwide in April 2010, while Bharat (Trem) Stage IV has been in force in the National Capital Region (NCR) & 11 cities since April 2011.
For the next stage in emissions legislation, the Indian government is planning to implement one set of emissions standards for Bharat (CEV) Stage IV and Bharat (Trem) Stage IV at the same time. It is expected that this will be introduced nationwide in 2015/16. The TMA (Tractor Manufacturers Association) is proposing a two-phase implementation, starting with the regulation of tractors and then construction equipment six months later. This new stage of legislation will be announced shortly before the Diesel Emissions Conference India, and will open up fresh discussion on cost-effective technology choices and strategies under consideration to meet BS IV.
Light-duty vehicles
The cost of diesel fuel is approximately 40% lower than petrol in India, while also 30% more efficient. This has led to a growing fleet of light-duty diesel vehicles in India – a share which is expected to rise to at least 40% of the Indian light-duty vehicle market by 2016.
The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) will soon announce the first set of fuel efficiency norms for cars. This is expected to come into force in 2015, with a second phase set for 2020. Light-duty vehicle manufacturers have already begun their preparations for these standards, and the conference will be well placed to discuss the final details on how these can be achieved.
Diesel Emissions Market Overview India BS IV fuel BS IV legislation Fuel efficiency standards OBD II enforcement AdBlue investment
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The commercial vehicle market in India has continued to grow since 2009
Source: Integer’s AdBlue & DEF Monitor
The 3rd Diesel Emissions Conference India 2012 is the complete learning and networking platform for the Indian diesel emissions industry.
Over 200 leading stakeholders from India and beyond will come together to discuss industry developments and trends, share ideas and do business with other decision makers, and review their own strategy for succeeding in this growing market.
Topics to be discussed:Heavy-duty and light-duty vehicles:
• Low-sulphur diesel fuel in India.• Emission control technologies for BS III fuel.• The potential for alternative fuels and dual fuel technology in India.• Mobility planning and low carbon transport development in India.• OBD II enforcement in 2013.• Fuel efficiency rules for light-duty diesel vehicles.
Non-Road Mobile Machinery:
• BS Stage IV – legislation details and plans for implementation.• Low cost emissions solutions and strategies.• Fuel saving technology for NRMM.
AdBlue:
• AdBlue market in India – market forecasts and opportunities for investment.• AdBlue quality sensing requirements.
Attendees from our 2011 India Conference
A Aftertreatment systems/ Automotive Parts/ Testing/ Raw materials
47%
B Vehicle and/ or Engine Manufacturer
21%
C Government/ Legislator/ Association/ Research insitute
17%
D Press/ Media 6%
E Oil, Fuels and Lubricants Producer/ Supplier/ Distributor
4%
F AdBlue Manufacturer/ Urea Producer/ Equipment Supplier/Distributor
2%
G Consultant/ Information Provider
2%
H Fleet (Public/ Private)/ Truck Stop
1%
A
B
C
DE
F G H
AdBlue
‘The calm before the storm’ is a phrase that best describes India’s AdBlue market. Although substantial demand will not begin until the full implementation of BS IV standards takes place, once it does, India is expected to be home to one of the most exciting AdBlue markets in the world. This will be followed by the implementation of BS IV standards for NRMM, which will spark new interest in SCR and AdBlue technology in India.
Integer has noted an increase in the amount of manufacturers and equipment providers investigating the opportunities presented by India’s AdBlue market. Major stakeholders, including Yara, Valvoline Cummins, Gulf Oil, NPL, and Cummins Filtration can be expected to have solid plans to make the most of the opportunities available.
12 –14 September 2012, New Delhi, India
Diesel Emissions Conference India 2012
Over 30 speakers confirmed, including:
Beiqi Foton Motor Dr. Qingyuan Song,Chief Engineer
The Ministry of Road Transport and HighwaysNitin Gokarn, Joint Secretary
Mahindra & Mahindra Kiran Vairagkar,Senior General Manager R&D
Ashok Leyland Ltd.N. Muralitharan, Head of Engine R&D
IOC (Indian Oil Corporation)Dr. R. K. Malhotra, Executive Director of R & D Centre
Maruti SuzukiP. Panda, Chief General Manager (Powertrain)
See our latest conference program and speaker list @www.integer-research.com/conferences/dec-india
By 2020, China and India will together account for over half the global NRMM parc
Source: Integer’s SCR and the Non-Road Mobile Machinery Market Study
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12 –14 September 2012, New Delhi, India