market outlook -...
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www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
U.S. Stocks turned in a lackluster performance during trading on Friday. The major
averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before
closing mixed. The Dow Jones dipped by 0.2% to 24,753 and the Nasdaq climbed
up by 0.1% to 7,434.
U.K. stocks rose modestly during the last trading session to rebound from two days
of losses as the pound selloff resumed amid growing Brexit uncertainty and after the
release of first-quarter GDP data. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.1% at
7,730.
On domestic front, Indian shares posted strong gains for the second straight session
as investors took trade worries in their stride and oil prices eased on expectations of
a gradual increase in output from Russia and other large producers. The rupee's
rebound from multi-month lows also offered some support. The BSE Sensex closed
up by 0.8% at 34,925.
News Analysis
Sebi serves notice on ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar in Videocon Loan Case
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company Sector Rating CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 704 867 23.2
Dewan Housing Finance Financials Buy 616 720 16.9
Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 335 410 22.4
Navkar Corporation Others Buy 149 265 77.4
KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 475 589 24.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
Key Upcoming Events
Date Region Event Description Previous
Reading
Consensus
Expectations
May 29, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 0.20 0.20
May 30, 2018 US Consumer Confidence 128.70 127.90
May 30, 2018 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) 2.30 2.30
May 30, 2018 China PMI Manufacturing 51.40 51.40
May 31, 2018 Germany Unemployment change (000's) (7.00) (10.00)
More Events on Pg7
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.8 262 34,925
Nifty 0.9 91 10,605
Mid Cap 1.6 243 15,904
Small Cap 1.2 198 17,151
Bankex 1.0 299 29,541
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones (0.2) (59) 24,753
Nasdaq 0.1 9 7,434
FTSE 0.2 14 7,730
Nikkei (0.0) (6) 22,445
Hang Seng 0.4 134 30,722
Shanghai Com (0.1) (4) 3,137
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,609 1,175
Declines 1,043 622
Unchanged 153 68
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE 3,025
NSE 30,928
Net Inflows (̀ Cr) Net Mtd Ytd
FII (262) (6,318) 1,079
*MFs 760 10,529 56,282
Top Gainers Price (` ) Chg (%)
GDL 199 20.0
TIMETECHNO 155 14.6
MCX 819 13.8
IFCI 19 11.9
HATHWAY 31 9.3
Top Losers Price (` ) Chg (%)
GRANULES 79 -4.4
SOBHA 524 -4.0
RAJESHEXPO 609 -3.5
GET&D 321 -3.1
IDBI 65 -3.1
As on May 25, 2018
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Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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News Analysis
Sebi serves notice on ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar in Videocon
Loan Case
Market regulatory Sebi has served a notice on ICICI Bank CEO and MD Chanda
Kochhar on dealings of the bank with Videocon Group and Nupower, an entity in
which her husband Deepak Kochhar has economic interests, the private sector
lender. Appropriate response would be submitted to the Sebi, the country's largest
private bank said in a stock exchange filing. The CBI has launched a preliminary
investigation into Rs 32.50 billion loan ICICI Bank had extended to Videocon in
2012 and the possible role of Kochhar's husband -- Deepak Kochhar.
Reports have alleged that Videocon chairman Venugopal Dhoot invested Rs 640
million in Nu Power Renewables, a firm owned by Deepak Kochhar after Videocon
secured a loan from a consortium of banks, including ICICI. ICICI has denied any
wrongdoing in the loan, saying it was part of a consortium of lenders that
extended the facility to Videocon. The notice, it further said has been issued based
on information furnished by the Bank/its MD & CEO to diverse queries made by
Sebi concerning dealings between the bank and Videocon Group and certain
dealings allegedly between Videocon Group and Nupower, an entity in which
Deepak Kochhar spouse of MD& CEO has economic interests.
Economic and Political News
Saudi Arabia, Russia plan to raise oil production by 1 mn barrels/day
CII lauds Modi govt, says Indian economy strong, reforms on track
Govt orders out-of-turn coal for state-run power firms, pvt ones to be hit
Railways plans to hike coal supply to power firms as inventories plunge
Corporate News
Mother Dairy plans milk unit, distribution centre in Odisha for Rs 1.75 bn
L&T, Reliance bidders for Yogi's flagship Rs 182 bn Purvanchal Expressway
ONGC to quadruple output from Bay of Bengal gas field that cost $1 bn
L&T Construction- Marubeni JV bags Rs 31.9 bn order for Dhaka Metro
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Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Larsen & Toubro Ltd – May 28, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 41,067 36,618 12.2 28,747 42.8
EBIDTA 5,011 5,394 (7.1) 4,658 7.5
% 12.2 14.7
16.2
PAT 2,994 3,180 (5.9) 1,617 85.2
NTPC Ltd – May 28, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 21,604 20,416 5.8 20,774 3.9
EBIDTA 6,128 4,679 30.9 5,217 17.4
% 28.4 22.9
25.2
PAT 2,714 2,079 30.5 2,360 15.0
Auro Pharma Ltd – May 28, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 4,187 3,641 14.9 4,336 (3.4)
EBIDTA 962 721 33.4 1,025 (6.2)
% 22.9 19.8
23.6
PAT 606 532 13.9 595 1.8
NMDC Ltd – May 28, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 3,532 2,871 23.1 2,469 43.1
EBIDTA 2,009 932 155.6 1,209 66.2
% 56.8 32.5
49.0
PAT 1,294 511 153.2 886 46.1
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Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%) Rationale
Alkem Laboratories 23,386 1,956 2,441 24.8
Strong growth in domestic business due to its
leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem
expects to launch more products in USA, which
bodes for it s international business.
Blue Star 6,759 704 867 23.2
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Dewan Housing Finance 19,323 616 720 16.9
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity i s immense.
ICICI Bank 1,90,636 297 416 40.3
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost ,
which would help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries 3,721 475 589 24.1
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Music Broadcast Limited 1,926 338 475 40.7
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Navkar Corporation 2,248 149 265 77.4
Massive capacity expansion along with rail
advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the
company
Siyaram Silk Mills 2,850 608 851 40.0
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at
an inexpensive valuation.
Maruti 2,58,183 8,547 10,619 24.2
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
GIC Housing 2,063 383 655 71.0
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
LT Foods 2,455 77 128 66.8
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over
next two years on the back of strong di stribution
network & addition of new products in portfolio.
Safari Industries 1,422 639 750 17.4
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
HSIL Ltd 2,479 343 510 48.8
We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over
FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in
operating margin due price hike in container glass
segment, turnaround in consumer business.
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
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Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%) Rationale
Aditya Birla Capital 31,464 143 218 52.5
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Parag Milk Foods 2,818 335 410 22.4
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
Matrimony.com Ltd 1,701 749 1,016 35.7
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank 5,22,421 2,012 2,315 15.1
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M 102638 857 990 15.5
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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Fundamental Call
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%) Rationale
CCL Products 4,189 315 360 14.3
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory
over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and
new geographical foray
Nilkamal 2,441 1,636 2,178 33.1
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic divi sion. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,633 2,059 2,500 21.4
Elantas Beck India i s the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries 3,396 277 395 42.6
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and di stribution network
GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,273 871 920 5.6
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market
leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is
expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the
next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from
user industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
L&T Finance Holding 33,668 169 210 24.5
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
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Market Outlook
May 28, 2018
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Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date Company
May 28, 2018 Bank of India, Rural Elec.Corp., NMDC, Finolex Cables, MM Forging, Cadila Healthcare, Aurobindo Pharma
May 29, 2018 M&M, BHEL, IOB, Coal India, BPCL, Siyaram Silk Mills, Glenmark Pharma., Ipca labs, Power Grid Corpn, MT Educare
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
May 29, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value May F 0.20 0.20
May 30, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 128.70 127.90
6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.30 2.30
6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 51.40 51.40
May 31, 2018 1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (7.00) (10.00)
6:00 PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 26 234.00
Jun 01, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May F 56.80 56.80
6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 164.00 190.00
6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % May 3.90 3.90
2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 53.90 53.60
Jun 05, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Services Value May F 52.10
Jun 06, 2018 2:30 PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 6 5.75
2:30 PM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 6 6.00
2:30 PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 6 4.00
Jun 07, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q F 0.40
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 25 May, 2018
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
7.3 7.6
8.0
7.2
9.1
8.1
7.6
6.8
6.1
5.7
6.5
7.2
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
4Q
FY15
1Q
FY16
2Q
FY16
3Q
FY16
4Q
FY16
1Q
FY17
2Q
FY17
3Q
FY17
4Q
FY17
1Q
FY18
2Q
FY18
3Q
FY18
(%)
2.9
(0.3)
1.0
4.8
4.1
1.8
8.5
7.3 7.4 7.0
4.4
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
(%)
2.2
1.5
2.4
3.3 3.3
3.6
4.9
5.2 5.1
4.4 4.3
4.6
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
(%)
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0 M
ar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
Jul-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
4
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Market Outlook
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Bra
zil
Russia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
South
Africa
Ind
onesia
Ma
laysia
Tha
ilan
d
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Ja
pa
n
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7 6.8
0.7
5.2 5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2 2.0
1.6 1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South A
frica
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(%)
12
.0
5.8
19
.1
11
.9
15
.6
15
.8
15
.4
15
.4
13
.8
16
.0
13
.2
14
.6
13
.8
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(x)
5
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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR
Brazil Bovespa 80,122 (6.4) (6.9) 30.1
Russia Micex 4,485 1.4 7.1 11.4
India Nifty 10,514 (0.1) 2.4 13.0
China Shanghai Composite 3,155 2.4 (1.4) 0.9
South Africa Top 40 50,346 (1.0) (2.6) 5.3
Mexico Mexbol 45,433 (6.2) (7.1) (8.2)
Indonesia LQ45 954 (6.7) (14.3) 1.2
Malaysia KLCI 1,776 (5.5) (4.4) (0.0)
Thailand SET 50 1,140 (3.0) (2.3) 17.0
USA Dow Jones 24,812 3.3 (0.6) 17.7
UK FTSE 7,717 4.3 6.5 2.2
Japan Nikkei 22,437 1.1 1.3 13.2
Germany DAX 12,855 3.3 4.0 2.9
France CAC 5,548 2.5 5.2 5.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As on 25 May, 2018
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status
04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990 Open
03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open
02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open
04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open
20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984
15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333
14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900 Open
06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861
07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open
21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650
16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open
07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open
04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open
03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open
01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed
Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd
160 Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131
18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400
19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open
06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96
16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open
10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open
20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434
07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open
05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open
04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485
01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open
17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603
05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open
05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open
08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open
30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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