realtor.com market outlook - dulles area association of realtors® · 2018-04-06 · source:...

4/5/2018

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© 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute.

REALTOR.COM®

MARKET OUTLOOKRealtor.com Economics

March 2018


• National Association of REALTORS® Macro Forecast:• Real GDP grows 2.9 in 2018 (vs. 2.3% in 2017)

• Nonfarm payroll employment grows 1.6% in 2018 (vs. 1.4% in 2017)

• Unemployment declines to 3.9% in 2018, (vs 4.4% in 2017)

• realtor.com® housing forecast:• Existing home prices appreciate 3.2%

• Existing home sales grow 2.5%

• New home sales grow 7%

• Housing starts increase 3% (SF up 7%)

• 30-year fixed conforming rate averages 4.6%

2018 FORECASTKey economic and housing metrics from NAR and realtor.com

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SS22SS25

SS22 NAR US Economic Outlook updated to March 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 9/6/2017

SS25 https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statisticsSpeianu, Sabrina, 11/8/2017

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NATIONALTRENDS

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JOB CREATION CONTINUES190,000 monthly average in past 12 months, Feb saw 313,000

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SS1

SS1 Updated to Feb 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 5/2/2017

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CONFIDENCE AT 15+ YEAR HIGHPlans to purchase a home improving markedly

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Source: The Conference Board, Moody’s Analytics

SS2


SALES STRUGGLE TO GROWEHS up 1.8% Y/Y in February After Falling 5.5% Y/Y in January

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Source: National Association of REALTORS® Existing Home Sales Report

SS3


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INVENTORY AT RECORD LOWS33 months of Y/Y decline; down 8% in March

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Source: Realtor.com®

SS4


PRICES AT RECORD HIGHSMedian List Price at $280,000, Up 7.7% year-over-year (Mar)

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SS7

SS4 Updated to March 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 5/2/2017

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SS7 Updated to Mar 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 6/8/2017

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LISTING PRICES GREW 7.7% Y/Y IN MARMedian list price increases are widespread

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March 2018

SS11


INVENTORY DIVERGENCE3.4 months for existing and 6.1 months for new

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Source: National Association of REALTORS®, Commerce Department

SS5


Slide 10

SS5 Updated to Jan 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 5/2/2017

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NEW HOME SHARE LAGS NORMALNew Homes 327,000 short of normal 15% share in February

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SS6


PREMIUM FOR NEW HOMES REMAINSAverage spread 2000-2008: 12%; 2009-2017: 33%

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SS8

SS6 Updated to Jan 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 5/2/2017

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HOUSING STARTS DOWN (BUT…)Down -4.0% Y/Y in Feb with SF up 2.9% and MF down -18.7%

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Source: Commerce Department

SS9


OWNERSHIP OFF OF LOWS64.2% ownership rate off low; 1.5 M households last 4qs

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Source: Census Bureau

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SS10 Updated to Q4 2017Speianu, Sabrina, 6/8/2017

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RENTS UP, NOT AS MUCH AS HOME PRICESAsking rents up 7.2% y/y in Mar compared to list prices up 7.7%

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Source: Realtor.com® and Altos Research

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CHEAPER TO BUY IN 42% OF COUNTIESSimple monthly cost analysis favors renting now in more places

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Source: Realtor.com® Analysis of HUD Median Rents,Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics and Realtor.com® Data

March 2018

SS21

SS12 Updated to Mar 2018Speianu, Sabrina, 6/8/2017

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HISTORIC AFFORDABILITY DECLINING30-year conforming rate avg 4.0% past 12 months; 4.4% today

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Source: Moody’s Analytics, Freddie Mac, and National Association of REALTORS®

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AFFORDABILITY IS RELATIVEHigher income households have more access to available inventory

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Source: realtor.com and National Association of REALTORS®

SS14

SS13 Rates updated to Feb, Affordability updated to JanSpeianu, Sabrina, 6/8/2017

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SS14 Updated to DecemberSpeianu, Sabrina, 6/8/2017

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DEMANDDRIVERS

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 4 8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

92

96

100+

Thousands

US Population by Age, End of 2016

DEMOGRAPHICS SET THE TABLEWhen viewed by age, importance of Millennials becomes clearer

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Source: Realtor.com® Analysis of US Census Bureau Population Estimates (2016)

BoomerXMillennialZ

78 million61 million88 million65 million 29 million

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TOTAL REAL ESTATE TRAFFICUp 10.3% Y/Y Feb 2018

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Source: Realtor.com® Analysis of comScore Media Metrix® Real Estate Category Unique Visitor Data

SS19


MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP VARIESStrong correlation with affordable markets

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Source: Realtor.com® Analysis of Nielsen Demographics PopFacts 2017

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

change of job/job location

increase in income

desire to live closer to good schools

planning an increase to family size

relocated to a new city

increase in family size

looking for a safer neighhorhood

getting married/moving in with partner

change of family circumstance/composition

favorable home prices

tired of current home

Top 10 Buying Triggers

all 25-34

LIFE DRIVES HOUSING DEMANDEveryone’s tired of waiting and Millennials are building families

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30%

25%

13%

32%

Source: realtor.com Active Home Shopper Survey, September 2016

© 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 24

LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

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LIST PRICES IN N. VIRGINIAFairfax Has Highest List Price at $625,000 (Mar 2018)

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Source: Realtor.com


LIST PRICE GROWTH IN N. VIRGINIALocal Markets Seeing 2-12% Price Decline Year-on-Year (Mar 2018)

26Source: Realtor.com

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PRICE GROWTH IN LOUDOUN COUNTY25% of Zips in Loudoun Experienced Price Growth Y/Y (Mar 2018)

27Source: Realtor.com


INVENTORY IN N. VIRGINIAActive Listings for the Past 12 Months

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Source: Realtor.com

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INVENTORY IN N. VIRGINIAActive Listings for the Past 12 Months

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Source: Realtor.com


ACTIVE INVENTORY IN N. VIRGINIASingle Family and Condo Active Listings (Mar 2018)

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Source: Realtor.com

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ACTIVE INVENTORY IN N. VIRGINIASingle Family and Condo Active Listings (Mar 2018)

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Source: Realtor.com


ACTIVE INVENTORY IN LOUDOUN COUNTYSingle Family and Condo Active Listings (Mar 2018)

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Source: Realtor.com

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ACTIVE INVENTORY IN LOUDOUN COUNTYSingle Family and Condo Active Listings (Mar 2018)

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Source: Realtor.com


AGE OF INVENTORY IN N. VIRGINIADays on Market for the Past 12 Months

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Source: Realtor.com

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AGE OF INVENTORY IN N. VIRGINIADays on Market for the Past 12 Months

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Source: Realtor.com


HOTTEST COUNTIES IN N. VIRGINIAPrince William is Top Performing County (Q4 2017)

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Source: Realtor.com

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HOTTEST ZIPS IN LOUDOUN COUNTYAshburn, Sterling are Top Performing Zip Codes (Q4 2017)

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Source: Realtor.com


GENERATIONAL PROPENSITYInterest in Zips by Age Groups in Loudon County (Q3 2017)

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Source: Realtor.com

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GENERATIONAL PROPENSITYInterest in Zips by Age Groups in Loudon County (Q3 2017)

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Source: Realtor.com


RENT PRICES IN N. VIRGINIANorthern Virginia seeing 2.6% Rent Growth Year-on-Year

40Source: Realtor.com® Analysis of HUD Fair Market Rents

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RENT VS BUYMonthly Costs Favor Renting in N. Virginia, But Not By Much

41Source: Realtor.com® Analysis of Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics, HUD Fair Market Rents and Realtor.com Data


HOME OWNERSHIPOverall Ownership Rate in Loudoun is 78% vs 64% Nationally

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Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2017

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MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP25-34 Ownership Rate in Loudoun is 63% vs 36% Nationally

43Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2017


HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2018-2022All Loudoun Zips Seeing Growth

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Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2017

realtor.com market outlook - dulles area association of realtors® · 2018-04-06 · source:...

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