market outlook 3rd may 2012

8/2/2019 Market Outlook 3rd May 2012

1/13

Market OutlookMay 3, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative tracking negative cues

from Asian markets. Asian stocks fell as growth in Chinas services industries

slowed and employment reports from Europe to the U.S. and New Zealand fueled

concern the global economy is faltering.US stocks turned a mixed performance on Wednesday trading session. The early

weakness on Wall Street came following the release of a report showing much

weaker than expected private sector job growth in the month of April. The private

sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs in April against an estimate of

183,000 jobs. While April's increase was the twenty-seventh consecutive monthly

advance, it nonetheless reflected a deceleration in the recent pace of hiring.

Investors would now keenly watch out for the jobless claims data due for release

today.

Indian shares ended modestly lower on Wednesday, erasing early gains, as

investors waited for the government's clarification on GAAR before deciding on the

future course of action. Weak PMI and infrastructure output data and growingweakness in the rupee, which fell below 53 to touch a near 4-month low against

the dollar today, also weighed on investor sentiment.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 17,333 / 5,248 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 17,401 17,500 / 5,270 5,302 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

17,333 / 5,248 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

17,234 17,166 / 5,217 5,195 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 17,166 17,234 17,333 17,401 17,500

NIFTY 5,195 5,217 5,248 5,270 5,302

News Analysis Auto sales numbers April 2012 4QFY2012 Result Reviews Bharti Airtel, HMCL 4QFY2012 Result Previews Marico, Aventis Pharma, KEC InternationalRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (April 30, 2012)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,114 1,573 541 (1,865) 43,461

MFs 725 876 (152) (676) (6,249)

FII Derivatives (May 02, 2012)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,064 984 80 8,598

Stock Futures 903 1,029 (125) 20,433

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Sun TV Network 301 5.1 Ashok Leyland 31 (5.4)

Titan Inds 243 4.3 Pipavav Defence 80 (4.2)

India Cements 88 4.2 Tata Motors 305 (3.8)MMTC 805 3.6 Manappuram Fin. 29 (3.7)

United Breweries 555 3.6 Sintex Industries 71 (3.7)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (0.1) (16.9) 17,302

Nifty (0.2) (9.0) 5,239

MID CAP (0.3) (16.9) 6,299

SMALL CAP 0.2 13.3 6,778

BSE HC 0.0 2.4 6,798

BSE PSU (0.6) (40.4) 7,209

BANKEX 0.3 31.7 11,860

AUTO (1.7) (182.6) 10,463

METAL (0.4) (40.2) 11,026

OIL & GAS (0.6) (46.0) 7,919

BSE IT 0.7 41.8 5,746

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.1) (10.8) 13,269NASDAQ 0.3 9.4 3,060

FTSE (0.9) (54.1) 5,758

Nikkei 0.3 29.3 9,380

Hang Seng 1.0 214.9 21,309

Straits Times 0.7 21.0 2,999

Shanghai Com 1.8 42.1 2,438

Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY 0.5 0.2 $47.6

WIT (0.2) (0.0) $9.6IBN (1.9) (0.6) $33.4

HDB (1.2) (0.4) $33.4

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,333 660

Declines 1,465 792

Unchanged 135 91

Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,805

NSE 9,876


2/13



Auto sales numbers April 2012

Ashok Leyland (AL)Ashok Leyland reported 57% yoy increase in total volumes to 8,686 units largely

on account of base effect in the MHCV segment and also due to incremental sales

from recently launched small commercial vehicle Dost. Excluding Dost volumes

jumped 17% yoy during the month.

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT)BJAUT reported a modest 4% yoy growth in total volumes as the commercial

vehicle segment posted a 13% yoy decline during the month. Motorcycle sales too

posted a moderate 6% yoy growth to 342,324 units. The volume momentum in the

motorcycle segment continues to be impacted by general slowdown in the sector

and increasing competitive activity especially from Honda Motorcycles and

Scooters India. Exports too remained subdued and registered 7% yoy growth

during the month.

Result Reviews

Bharti Airtel (CMP: `318/TP: - /Upside: -)Bharti Airtel (Bharti) reported a mixed performance for 3QFY2012, with operating

margins coming in ahead of our expectations while profitability came lower than

ours as well as street expectations due to higher than expected forex losses and

interest expenditure. Bhartis consolidated revenue stood at`

18,477cr, up just1.4% qoq. Revenue from mobile services for India came in at `10,510cr, up 3.3%

qoq on the back of 5.1% qoq growth in overall network traffic and 2.8% qoq

increase in MOU to 431min. However, APRM declined by 1.7% qoq to `0.44/min.

Zain Africas revenue stood at `5,308cr, down 0.9% qoq due to MOU as well as

ARPU declining sequentially by 2.1% and ~4.1% to 122min and US$6.8/month.

EBITDA margin of mobile India as well as Africa business increased by 15bp and

114bp qoq to 34.0% and 27.8%, respectively. Consolidated EBITDA margin of the

company grew by 100bp qoq to 33.3%. PAT came in at 1,006cr, down0.5% qoq,

negatively impacted by higher interest cost of `1057cr (due to forex fluctuations)

vs. 788cr in 3QFY2012 and higher tax rates. Overall the results of Bharti weremodest as the company continued to maintain its leadership with an increasing

subscriber base. But regulatory uncertainty remains an overhang of the stock as

the telecom industry is currently going through various operational and policy

uncertainties. We remain Neutral on the stock.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 80,967 33.1 6,791 17.9 11.5 17.8 2.0 6.5 2.2

FY2014E 88,684 33.4 8,367 22.0 12.5 14.4 1.8 5.5 1.8

Note: Estimates are subject to change post conference call


3/13



Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `2,245/TP: - /Upside: -)Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) reported in-line net sales growth of 11.9% yoy (flat qoq)

to `6,035cr driven by volume growth of 8.1% yoy and increase in average net

realization by 3.1% yoy. HMCLs volume performance was led by 7.4% and 17%

yoy increase in motorcycle and scooter sales, respectively. On the operating front,EBITDA margins (adjusted for change in accounting for royalty payments) declined

20bp yoy to 11.9% primarily on account of increase in raw-material expenses.

Further savings in employee expenses and other expenses supported the margins.

Net profit however, jumped 20.3% yoy to `604cr as higher other income and

lower tax rate benefitted the profitability. At the CMP of `2,245, HMCL is

reasonably valued at 14.9x FY2014E earnings (historical multiple - 15x). Thus wemaintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 26,161 15.4 2,868 143.6 56.3 15.6 7.5 9.0 1.3

FY2014E 29,681 15.3 3,007 150.6 43.8 14.9 5.8 7.3 1.0

Result Previews

Marico

Marico is expected to announce its 4QFY2012results. For the quarter, we expect

Marico to report 21.7% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `910cr, driven by

improved volumes and realizations. We expect OPM to contract by 211bp yoy to

13% due to increased input costs. Maricos earnings for the quarter are expected

to decline by 2.1% yoy to `70cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on thestock.

Aventis Pharma

For the 2QCY2012, Aventis Pharma is expected to post a net sales and profits of

around `312cr and `51.5cr, registering a yoy growth of 12.9% and 1.8%. On the

operating front, the margins are expected to dip by 110bps to end the period at

14.6%. We maintain our neutral view on the stock.KEC International

For 4QFY2012, KEC International (KEC) is expected to register strong growth of

22.0% yoy to `1,902cr on the back of strong execution of its robust order book.

On the EBITDA front, the companys margin is expected to contract by ~250bp

yoy to 8.0% because of margin pressures in the domestic business (as was the case

in the previous quarter). Nonetheless, increased contribution from SAE Towers is

likely to support the companys margins. Interest cost is expected to remain atelevated levels, resulting in a yoy decline of 13.2% at the earnings level to `68.2cr.We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `72.


4/13



Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Bank of Baroda - (04/05/2012)Particulars (` cr) 4Q FY12E 4Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 3Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,306 1,294 1 1,290 1

Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (05/05/2012)Particulars (` cr) 4Q FY12E 4Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 3Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,942 6,390 9 6,260 11

EBITDA 1,541 1,650 (7) 1,413 9

EBITDA margin (%) 22.2 25.8 22.6

Net profit 757 865 (12) 669 13

Economic and Political News India Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March 2012 TRAI allows MSOs to charge a carriage fee from broadcasters Oil ministry seeks clarifications from RIL on CBM gas price Vodafone ignored CBDT advice on tax liability: Government

Corporate News

BGR Energy bags `1,855cr order from Meja Urja Nigam Petronet signs pact for `4,500cr Gangavaram LNG terminal Tata Motors ends distribution alliance with Fiat Kingfisher staff likely to move Labour Court over non-payment of salariesSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


5/13

Date Company

May 03, 2012 Marico, Aventis, KEC International, Finolex Cables

May 04, 2012 Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNL, D B Corp, ITD Cementation

May 05, 2012 Grasim Inds, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra

May 06, 2012 -

May 07, 2012 HDFC, Bosch India, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Andhra Bank, South Ind.Bank

May 08, 2012 Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Hindalco, IDFC, Shriram Trans., Central Bank, CESC, Dena Bank, CEAT

May 09, 2012 Punjab Natl.Bank, Ranbaxy, ABB, Union Bank, IRB Infra, NIIT

May 10, 2012 NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Sintex, Apollo Tyres, HEG

May 11, 2012 Dr Reddy's, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Goodyear

May 12, 2012 Madhucon Proj

May 13, 2012 -

May 14, 2012 Mundra Port, Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas

May 15, 2012 -

May 16, 2012 J K Lakshmi Cements

May 17, 2012 Bajaj Auto

May 18, 2012 St Bk of India

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 03, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands 21-Apr-12 388.00 376.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Apr-12 1.00 1.00

May 04, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Apr-12 52.60 52.60

US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Mar-12 120.00 161.00

US Unnemployment rate % Mar-12 8.20 8.20

May 10, 2012 China Exports YoY% % Change Mar-12 8.90 8.50

UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May-12 0.50 0.50

UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Feb-12 (2.30) --

May 11, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Feb-12 4.10 --

US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Mar-12 -- --

China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar-12 11.90 12.00

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Mar-12 3.60 3.40

May 14, 2012 IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

% Change Mar-12 6.89 --

May 15, 2012 US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Mar-12 0.30 --

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change Dec-11 (0.30) --

Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change Dec-11 1.50 --

May 16, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Mar-12 2.70 --

US Industrial Production % Mar-12 -- --

US Housing Starts Thousands Mar-12 654.00 --

US Building permits Thousands Mar-12 764.00 --

UK Jobless claims change % Change Mar-12 3.60 --



May 03, 2012

Market Outlook


6/13

Market StrategyMay 03, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

5.8 5.9

7.5

9.8

7.4

9.4

8.5

7.6

8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

(%)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

9.4

5.36.2

9.5

3.7 3.42.5

(5.0)

6.0

2.5

1.1

4.1

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

7.76.9 7.0 6.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)


Exhibit 6:Key policy rates8.00

7.00

4.75

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


7/13

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Buy 115 133 2,243 1,570 1,884 17.9 17.9 9.8 11.1 11.8 10.4 2.8 2.3 25.9 24.3 1.4 1.1

United Phosphorus Buy 120 210 5,522 7,797 8,150 19.7 19.7 16.0 18.6 7.5 6.4 1.1 1.0 16.1 16.4 0.7 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 289 345 2,470 2,691 3,032 15.6 15.5 29.4 32.8 9.8 8.8 2.3 1.9 26.5 23.6 0.9 0.7

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 88 100 4,428 13,580 15,007 10.1 10.2 10.5 12.5 8.3 7.0 1.4 1.2 21.8 30.7 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 31 37 8,115 15,008 16,906 9.5 9.5 2.6 3.1 11.9 9.9 2.5 2.1 15.5 17.0 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle Neutral 516 - 779 1,211 1,390 11.6 11.4 48.1 55.3 10.7 9.3 2.6 2.1 26.8 25.2 0.7 0.6Bajaj Auto Buy 1,593 1,888 46,101 22,362 25,633 19.8 19.0 115.9 125.9 13.7 12.7 5.4 4.3 44.4 37.9 1.7 1.4

Bharat Forge Accumulate 326 372 7,587 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 14.6 12.3 2.8 2.4 21.0 21.0 1.1 1.0

Bosch India Neutral 8,800 - 27,629 9,335 10,564 18.3 18.3 394.5 439.3 22.3 20.0 4.5 3.7 20.1 18.7 2.6 2.2

CEAT Buy 106 140 364 5,057 5,620 5.4 5.6 22.2 31.1 4.8 3.4 0.5 0.5 11.9 16.8 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Buy 126 155 10,672 5,812 6,710 16.2 16.5 7.6 8.9 16.6 14.1 3.1 2.6 19.4 19.8 1.5 1.2

FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,512 1,594 2,513 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.8 11.4 2.8 2.3 24.0 21.9 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,245 - 44,830 26,161 29,681 15.4 15.3 143.6 150.6 15.6 14.9 7.6 5.8 56.4 43.8 1.4 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 84 113 345 8,058 9,025 5.4 5.5 24.8 32.2 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.3 11.4 13.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 715 802 43,896 35,095 40,213 10.7 10.5 44.6 48.7 16.0 14.7 2.8 2.5 18.8 18.1 0.9 0.8

Maruti Accumulate 1,332 1,510 38,486 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 15.4 13.2 2.2 1.9 15.3 15.5 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Buy 177 216 6,864 11,167 12,516 9.5 10.0 11.3 14.4 15.6 12.3 3.4 2.8 23.3 24.7 0.7 0.6

Subros Neutral 32 - 193 1,225 1,393 8.5 8.2 4.2 5.0 7.7 6.5 0.8 0.8 10.3 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Accumulate 305 328 81,998 191,183 213,150 12.6 12.6 38.7 42.9 7.9 7.1 2.8 2.2 39.8 33.9 0.5 0.5

TVS Motor Buy 42 56 1,972 7,965 8,897 6.4 6.3 5.0 5.6 8.3 7.4 1.5 1.3 18.9 18.3 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 802 503 16,992 8,926 10,220 7.7 7.5 18.6 20.9 43.0 38.3 5.9 5.2 14.5 14.5 1.9 1.6BGR Energy Sell 334 274 2,409 4,170 5,396 11.5 10.4 27.2 30.4 12.3 11.0 2.0 1.8 17.3 17.4 1.2 1.1

BHEL Neutral 224 - 54,790 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.5 9.3 1.9 1.7 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.0

Blue Star Buy 185 221 1,665 3,250 3,551 5.9 5.9 12.4 15.8 14.9 11.7 3.0 2.6 21.2 23.8 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 131 164 8,413 12,936 14,101 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.7 12.1 11.2 2.1 1.8 18.4 17.3 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 45 67 368 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.4 12.7 13.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 57 72 1,467 6,865 7,650 8.5 8.7 9.7 12.1 5.9 4.7 1.1 0.9 27.6 27.0 0.5 0.4

LMW Buy 1,624 2,609 1,830 2,663 3,130 12.8 12.8 185.0 217.4 8.8 7.5 1.7 1.5 21.2 21.7 0.2 0.2

Thermax Neutral 442 - 5,261 5,473 5,497 10.1 9.8 30.4 28.7 14.5 15.4 2.8 2.5 20.5 16.9 0.8 0.8


May 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


8/13



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,211 - 22,742 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 17.1 14.9 3.0 2.7 18.0 19.0 1.8 1.5

Ambuja Cements Neutral 148 - 22,797 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 14.7 14.1 2.9 2.6 18.5 19.4 1.9 1.5

India Cements Neutral 88 - 2,688 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 8.9 6.9 0.8 0.7 8.6 10.5 0.9 0.8

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 64 79 784 1,880 2,201 19.0 22.6 12.2 16.4 5.3 3.9 0.6 0.5 11.9 14.3 0.6 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 149 - 3,555 3,434 3,777 25.5 26.1 14.1 18.1 10.6 8.3 1.5 1.3 15.2 16.9 1.7 1.4

Shree Cements Neutral 2,825 - 9,842 5,552 6,193 25.7 26.0 130.3 182.0 21.7 15.5 4.5 3.8 19.1 22.3 1.5 1.1

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,414 - 38,765 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 17.2 14.5 2.7 2.4 16.8 17.4 1.8 1.8Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 210 302 1,106 2,014 2,294 22.4 22.4 28.4 30.8 7.4 6.8 1.0 0.9 14.1 13.3 2.3 2.6

Consolidated Co Neutral 15 - 277 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 8.2 5.3 0.5 0.4 5.6 8.2 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 21 - 1,283 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (11.8) (27.1) 1.2 1.4 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 168 228 5,582 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 11.2 9.9 1.7 1.5 16.3 15.9 3.1 2.8

ITNL Buy 185 265 3,596 6,619 7,263 23.8 24.2 24.7 26.2 7.5 7.1 1.2 1.0 17.0 15.7 2.1 2.2

IVRCL Infra Buy 61 79 1,627 5,758 6,860 9.2 9.2 4.7 6.0 13.0 10.1 0.8 0.7 6.0 7.3 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 74 104 15,704 16,017 18,359 24.4 23.5 4.2 5.0 17.6 14.7 1.5 1.4 8.8 9.7 2.3 2.0

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,215 1,641 74,410 60,258 69,900 12.1 11.5 70.7 76.3 17.2 15.9 2.6 2.3 16.1 15.2 1.4 1.2

Madhucon Proj Buy 55 84 403 2,503 2,903 10.7 10.7 5.8 6.6 9.4 8.3 0.6 0.6 6.6 7.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 47 76 1,215 5,790 7,022 9.2 9.5 3.5 5.4 13.6 8.8 0.5 0.5 3.7 5.6 0.8 0.8

Patel Engg. Neutral 106 - 742 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 7.6 7.3 0.5 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.1 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 52 - 1,734 10,592 12,193 8.4 8.4 2.9 4.6 18.0 11.5 0.6 0.5 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 138 199 2,077 2,989 3,315 10.6 10.6 10.2 11.3 13.6 12.2 2.2 1.9 17.6 16.3 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 234 316 1,156 6,732 7,902 9.3 9.6 27.2 35.1 8.6 6.7 0.9 0.8 11.0 12.6 0.5 0.5

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 170 193 8,513 7,700 8,677 3.4 3.3 37.4 40.9 4.6 4.2 0.8 0.7 19.0 17.0 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 119 - 6,653 5,284 5,998 3.3 3.2 23.6 27.0 5.0 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.5 16.7 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,102 1,587 45,543 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 9.5 7.9 1.8 1.5 20.0 20.3 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 757 943 29,656 16,013 18,849 2.7 2.7 131.4 153.3 5.8 4.9 1.0 0.9 19.7 19.2 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 348 386 19,956 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 54.9 63.1 6.3 5.5 1.1 0.9 16.8 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Buy 54 62 3,172 3,665 4,107 3.5 3.5 10.7 13.5 5.0 4.0 0.8 0.7 17.8 17.5 - -

Canara Bank Buy 435 532 19,286 12,120 14,009 2.2 2.2 85.7 95.4 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.7 17.2 16.7 - -

Central Bank Reduce 98 92 7,218 6,860 7,934 2.4 2.4 13.1 19.9 7.5 4.9 0.9 0.9 10.5 13.8 - -


May 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


9/13



Financials

Corporation Bank Buy 408 508 6,047 5,361 5,995 2.2 2.1 108.3 111.5 3.8 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.2 - -

Dena Bank Buy 95 118 3,331 3,003 3,366 3.0 2.9 23.2 25.6 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.6 18.0 16.9 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 419 - 7,168 2,766 3,163 3.4 3.3 49.5 57.2 8.5 7.3 1.1 1.0 14.0 14.5 - -

HDFC Neutral 672 - 99,265 7,244 8,625 3.3 3.3 31.2 37.2 21.6 18.1 4.2 3.8 34.2 31.3 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 550 - 129,021 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 19.4 15.5 3.7 3.2 20.8 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 882 1,183 101,331 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 13.0 10.9 1.6 1.5 14.7 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 101 117 9,974 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 5.1 4.2 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 221 240 9,476 6,469 7,244 3.5 3.3 45.5 48.8 4.9 4.5 0.9 0.8 19.6 18.2 - -

IOB Buy 89 104 7,113 7,328 8,264 2.5 2.5 15.9 21.1 5.6 4.2 0.6 0.6 12.7 13.9 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 910 - 4,410 2,420 2,792 3.5 3.6 178.0 195.8 5.1 4.7 0.9 0.8 19.5 18.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 258 286 12,268 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 10.6 8.5 2.0 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 233 285 6,808 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.3 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 866 1,138 27,426 20,708 24,094 3.5 3.5 156.3 178.7 5.5 4.8 1.0 0.8 19.7 18.5 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,715 1,368 1,557 2.8 2.7 3.7 3.9 6.5 6.1 1.2 1.0 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Buy 2,139 2,593 143,567 69,568 81,445 3.7 3.7 220.9 269.8 9.7 7.9 1.6 1.4 18.9 19.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 106 128 6,363 7,069 7,961 3.1 3.0 23.3 27.5 4.6 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 4,913 5,727 6,443 2.5 2.5 17.8 18.8 4.4 4.2 0.9 0.8 17.8 16.2 - -

Union Bank Buy 227 266 11,889 10,352 11,988 2.9 2.9 40.7 49.5 5.6 4.6 0.9 0.8 16.8 17.4 - -

United Bank Buy 68 87 2,437 3,666 4,128 2.9 2.9 18.4 21.7 3.7 3.1 0.6 0.5 15.9 16.0 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 58 - 2,763 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.1 11.7 5.8 5.0 0.8 0.7 13.2 13.7 - -

Yes Bank Buy 348 470 12,296 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 10.3 8.4 2.2 1.8 23.1 23.3 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,533 - 33,893 10,961 12,773 16.3 16.3 120.3 142.5 29.4 24.8 9.7 7.7 36.9 34.7 3.0 2.5Britannia Buy 559 650 6,671 5,906 6,856 6.9 7.0 22.3 28.3 25.0 19.8 10.2 7.6 45.2 44.1 1.1 1.0

Colgate Neutral 1,118 - 15,198 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 37.7 42.6 29.6 26.3 35.3 28.5 129.4 120.1 4.9 4.3

Dabur India Neutral 110 - 19,154 6,010 6,929 17.4 17.6 4.4 5.2 24.9 21.2 9.4 7.6 41.4 42.1 3.2 2.8

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,778 - 11,684 3,111 2,687 16.9 15.8 100.6 86.1 27.6 32.3 8.4 10.2 33.3 33.8 3.4 4.0

Godrej Consumer Reduce 548 512 18,648 5,904 6,905 17.8 18.1 22.6 26.9 24.3 20.3 6.6 5.4 29.9 36.3 3.3 2.9

HUL Neutral 425 - 91,864 25,546 29,031 15.2 15.3 14.1 16.1 30.1 26.4 23.0 28.4 84.3 76.7 3.4 3.0

ITC Neutral 245 - 191,160 28,955 33,595 35.9 35.7 9.2 10.5 26.7 23.3 8.5 7.0 34.8 33.1 6.3 5.4


May 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


10/13



FMCG

Marico Neutral 180 - 11,060 4,669 5,467 13.0 12.9 6.8 8.2 26.6 22.0 7.2 5.7 30.5 28.8 2.4 2.0

Nestle* Neutral 4,606 - 44,407 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 38.6 31.1 23.7 16.1 73.0 61.6 5.1 4.2

Tata Global Accumulate 119 136 7,381 7,011 7,712 9.7 10.0 6.0 7.1 20.1 16.7 1.8 1.8 8.9 10.2 0.9 0.9

IT

HCL Tech Accumulate 518 560 35,875 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 13.7 12.0 3.0 2.5 22.3 21.3 1.5 1.3

Hexaware Neutral 128 - 3,794 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 13.1 12.0 3.0 2.6 23.7 22.5 1.8 1.5

Infosys Accumulate 2,471 2,792 141,907 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.6 14.2 3.5 3.0 22.5 20.8 3.1 2.6Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 168 177 1,877 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 10.0 9.1 1.4 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.7 0.5

KPIT Cummins Neutral 102 - 1,820 2,042 2,139 15.2 14.9 9.6 10.9 10.7 9.4 1.9 1.5 19.2 18.0 0.8 0.7

Mahindra Satyam Buy 76 89 8,908 7,142 8,042 15.4 15.0 7.7 8.3 9.9 9.2 1.4 1.2 13.8 13.0 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Neutral 602 - 2,439 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 11.2 10.3 2.1 1.7 18.9 17.0 0.9 0.8

Mphasis Accumulate 377 433 7,914 5,904 6,320 18.3 17.9 38.7 41.2 9.7 9.1 1.5 1.3 14.9 13.7 0.9 0.7

NIIT Buy 44 61 726 1,105 1,200 16.4 16.9 7.5 9.2 5.8 4.8 1.0 0.9 17.6 19.0 0.4 0.2

Persistent Neutral 375 - 1,501 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 10.1 9.4 1.6 1.4 15.4 14.5 1.0 0.9

TCS Neutral 1,268 - 248,117 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 20.1 17.9 6.1 5.0 30.5 27.7 4.1 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 693 750 8,835 6,030 6,511 16.3 15.7 81.1 87.0 8.6 8.0 1.7 1.4 20.1 18.0 1.4 1.2

Wipro Accumulate 405 430 99,457 41,918 46,879 19.4 19.9 25.1 28.7 16.1 14.1 3.0 2.6 18.6 18.3 2.0 1.7

Media

D B Corp Buy 209 274 3,838 1,656 1,869 26.0 26.8 14.0 16.1 15.0 13.0 3.4 2.9 24.8 24.1 2.2 1.9

HT Media Buy 125 170 2,947 2,255 2,555 17.8 18.3 10.0 12.0 12.6 10.4 1.7 1.5 14.7 15.4 1.0 0.9

Jagran Prakashan Buy 99 137 3,123 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 12.9 10.9 4.4 3.9 34.6 37.7 2.0 1.9

PVR Neutral 150 - 389 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 12.1 9.5 1.9 2.0 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

Sun TV Network Neutral 301 - 11,862 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 14.4 12.5 3.4 2.8 26.0 25.1 4.5 3.7Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 434 - 9,223 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.0 7.4 1.2 1.0 14.5 7.5 3.1 2.2

Coal India Neutral 346 - 218,451 65,654 71,756 26.8 27.3 24.0 26.3 14.4 13.1 3.9 3.2 30.4 27.0 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Buy 20 27 701 1,984 2,074 10.6 12.0 2.7 3.3 7.5 6.2 0.4 0.2 5.2 6.2 0.5 0.4

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 127 139 53,514 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 8.6 7.7 1.7 1.4 21.2 19.9 2.4 1.8

Hindalco Accumulate 120 136 22,975 84,638 88,753 9.6 10.5 15.2 17.3 7.9 6.9 0.7 0.6 8.7 9.2 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 697 - 15,541 39,161 43,958 17.8 17.9 72.2 89.5 9.7 7.8 0.9 0.8 10.1 11.4 0.7 0.6

MOIL Neutral 254 - 4,270 979 1,061 45.7 46.8 24.5 26.6 10.4 9.6 1.6 1.4 16.1 15.8 2.2 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 479 585 3,082 2,986 3,908 22.1 28.9 50.5 83.4 9.5 5.7 1.2 1.0 13.5 19.2 1.9 1.3


May 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


11/13



Metals & Mining

Nalco Sell 61 51 15,644 8,276 8,578 12.7 16.4 2.5 3.5 23.9 17.3 1.3 1.3 5.6 7.5 1.4 1.4

NMDC Accumulate 176 185 69,938 11,726 12,890 77.8 78.4 18.6 20.6 9.5 8.6 2.3 1.9 26.1 23.8 3.8 3.3

SAIL Accumulate 96 102 39,756 52,461 62,935 18.0 18.8 13.2 14.5 7.3 6.6 0.9 0.8 12.4 12.3 1.1 1.0

Sesa Goa Accumulate 188 206 16,356 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 105 123 35,303 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 6.4 5.5 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.4 0.3

Tata Steel Accumulate 462 503 44,885 141,358 142,265 11.1 13.7 45.8 58.9 10.1 7.9 1.0 0.9 10.0 11.7 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Accumulate 345 372 65,751 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.8 7.1 1.1 1.0 18.3 14.8 3.1 2.3

GAIL Buy 329 392 41,669 50,472 55,503 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.3 8.9 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.0 0.5 0.4

ONGC Buy 267 319 228,389 148,157 150,563 37.6 39.5 31.0 33.6 8.6 7.9 1.5 1.4 18.8 18.1 1.2 1.0

Reliance Industries Buy 743 872 243,414 325,734 328,669 10.9 11.7 65.8 70.1 11.3 10.6 1.2 1.1 11.9 11.5 0.7 0.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 54 95 1,011 1,576 1,813 15.9 16.9 8.2 9.5 6.5 5.7 2.3 1.9 35.0 34.3 0.9 0.7

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 129 175 3,753 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 9.3 8.8 1.1 0.5 11.4 10.9 1.1 0.9

Aventis* Neutral 2,197 - 5,059 1,401 1,569 15.3 15.0 89.7 110.3 24.5 19.9 4.0 3.2 17.1 15.4 3.1 2.6

Cadila Healthcare Buy 723 1,016 14,805 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 16.7 14.2 4.3 3.4 25.4 24.8 2.4 1.9

Cipla Buy 317 380 25,489 7,006 8,164 20.0 21.2 17.0 19.0 18.7 16.7 3.4 2.9 16.8 18.2 3.6 3.1

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,761 - 29,843 9,183 10,063 25.7 25.1 92.1 89.9 19.1 19.6 4.1 3.6 22.8 18.8 3.3 3.0

Dishman Pharma Buy 46 91 368 1,282 1,538 17.9 17.9 10.1 13.0 4.5 3.5 0.4 0.3 8.5 10.1 1.0 0.9

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,171 - 18,392 2,788 3,148 35.6 35.2 87.9 96.7 24.7 22.5 8.0 6.7 34.8 32.1 5.8 5.0

Indoco Remedies Buy 471 665 578 685 837 15.2 15.2 55.5 66.5 8.5 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.4 16.9 1.0 0.9

Ipca labs Buy 361 443 4,545 2,907 3,541 21.5 21.5 32.7 40.6 11.1 8.9 2.8 2.2 27.8 27.7 1.7 1.4

Lupin Buy 546 656 24,403 8,272 9,929 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.8 18.4 16.7 4.8 3.7 25.0 22.9 3.0 2.4Orchid Chemicals Buy 181 270 1,276 2,143 2,508 21.8 21.8 28.3 38.1 6.4 4.8 1.3 1.0 19.3 23.4 1.5 1.2

Ranbaxy* Neutral 500 - 21,091 12,023 12,264 19.9 16.9 41.1 36.9 12.2 13.5 2.6 2.3 30.0 17.6 1.5 1.4

Sun Pharma Accumulate 598 634 61,573 9,272 11,080 40.3 36.3 26.7 28.8 22.4 20.8 4.5 3.9 22.1 20.8 5.6 4.6

Power

CESC Buy 252 342 3,148 4,927 5,429 23.8 23.9 41.0 46.2 6.1 5.5 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.7 1.2 1.2

GIPCL Buy 67 98 1,010 1,557 1,573 28.7 27.5 10.4 10.2 6.4 6.6 0.7 0.6 10.5 9.6 1.1 0.9

NTPC Buy 160 201 131,721 73,558 84,843 23.4 23.6 12.6 14.1 12.7 11.3 1.6 1.5 13.3 13.6 2.5 2.3

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 56 78 1,663 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 6.7 4.4 0.4 0.4 6.3 8.9 3.8 2.9

DLF Neutral 192 - 32,609 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.0 14.3 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.8 4.8


May 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


12/13



Real Estate

HDIL Buy 80 115 3,333 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 3.7 3.1 0.3 0.3 8.4 9.1 3.2 2.4

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 318 - 120,742 80,967 88,684 33.1 33.4 17.9 22.0 17.8 14.4 2.1 1.8 11.5 12.5 2.2 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 80 - 26,620 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 25.0 17.0 1.9 1.7 7.5 10.0 1.7 1.4

Rcom Neutral 76 - 15,676 21,899 23,740 32.7 32.7 4.2 6.7 18.0 11.4 0.4 0.4 2.1 3.2 2.1 1.7

zOthers

Bajaj Electrical Buy 196 245 1,951 3,670 4,384 8.5 8.5 18.3 22.3 10.7 8.8 2.4 2.0 23.9 24.3 0.5 0.5CRISIL Neutral 1,034 - 7,242 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 30.1 25.9 13.6 10.9 50.9 46.9 7.0 5.9

Finolex Cables Buy 34 60 515 2,341 2,656 8.5 8.8 8.0 10.0 4.2 3.4 0.6 0.5 18.1 20.2 0.2 0.1

Graphite India Buy 90 116 1,764 2,053 2,437 22.6 22.4 13.5 16.3 6.7 5.5 1.0 0.9 15.4 16.5 1.0 0.8

Greenply Buy 211 298 509 1,800 2,047 11.1 11.6 34.1 49.6 6.2 4.3 1.1 0.9 20.2 23.7 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 3,134 - 3,496 935 1,168 19.6 19.6 99.7 122.2 31.4 25.6 18.2 14.6 64.2 63.1 3.8 3.0

Sintex Buy 71 129 1,944 5,219 5,912 16.5 16.9 15.8 21.4 4.5 3.3 0.7 0.6 14.7 17.1 0.6 0.5

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 261 439 245 1,045 1,173 12.3 12.4 61.5 73.2 4.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 20.2 20.4 0.5 0.5

SpiceJet Neutral 28 - 1,245 5,384 6,443 (1.0) 4.1 (3.4) 2.4 (8.3) 11.8 (11.4) 24.0 - - 0.4 0.4

Taj GVK Buy 60 116 378 322 355 36.3 35.8 8.3 9.6 7.3 6.3 1.0 0.9 14.5 14.9 1.5 1.3

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 02, 2012


May 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


13/13

May 03, 2012Market Outlook

market outlook 3rd may 2012

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