market outlook 31st october 2011

8/3/2019 Market Outlook 31st October 2011

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539 1

Market OutlookIndia Research

October 31, 2011

Dealers DiaryThe Indian markets are expected to open sideways on the back of mixed cuesfrom Asian, European as well as US markets. Asian stocks witnessed softened

opening, with the move paring monthly gains made ahead of Europes latestattempt to stem its sovereign-debt crisis. The US markets closed with flattish cueson Friday, with traders taking a breather following the rally seen in the previoussession. The major averages bounced back and forth across the unchanged linebefore ending the session mixed.

The coming week's (November 3rd & 4th) G-20 meeting will essentially bewatched for coordinated efforts or pledges to help stabilize world financialmarkets, which have been battered this year by the euro zone debt crisis and aslowing world economy. A more specific issue, however, will be the extent towhich China and other countries with large fiscal surpluses are willing to fund theeuro zone's rescue fund.

The Indian markets would be watching out for monthly external trade (due

on November 1) and Purchasing Managers Index data (Manufacturing PMIdue on November 1 and Services PMI expected on November 5).

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 17,795 / 5,361 levels. If NIFTY trades

above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a

further rally up to 17,918 18,031 / 5,399 5,438 levels. However, if NIFTY

trades below 17,795 / 5,361 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may

correct up to 17,681 17,558 / 5,322 5,284 levels.

Indices S2 S1 R1 R2SENSEX 17,558 17,681 17,918 18,031

NIFTY 5,284 5,322 5,399 5,438

News Analysis

2QFY2012 Result Reviews Maruti Suzuki, IOB, Electrosteel Castings, JKLakshmi Cement, Tata Sponge, CCCL

2QFY2012 Result Previews ICICI Bank, NMDC, Wipro, HUL, BoB, CanaraBank, Dabur, Colgate, OBC, Indian Bank, Corporation Bank, UCO Bank,J&K Bank, IPCA Labs, Vijaya Bank, Dena Bank, United Bank of India

Discontinuation of coverageRefer detailed news analysis on the following pageNet Inflows (October 25, 2011)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 3,689 3,234 455 (373) (2,327)

MFs 773 795 (22) (55) 5,442

FII Derivatives (October 28, 2011)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 3,368 2,149 1,218 15,540

Stock Futures 2,484 2,011 473 28,227

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Hindalco Inds 142 10.9 Indiabulls Fin 157 (4.4)

JSW Steel 664 9.9 BPCL 638 (2.9)

Reliance Infra 465 9.7 Areva T&D 218(2.4)

IVRCL LTD 41 9.2 Maruti Suzuki 1,128 (2.0)

Sterlite Inds 133 8.8 JUBL FOOD 841 (1.9)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 3.0 516.0 17,805

Nifty 3.1 158.9 5,361MID CAP 1.5 93.3 6,275

SMALL CAP 0.9 60.6 6,960

BSE HC 1.5 89.3 6,171

BSE PSU 2.4 180.9 7,616

BANKEX 3.7 408.9 11,372

AUTO 2.9 267.1 9,571

METAL 6.3 723.9 12,143

OIL & GAS 2.2 194.8 9,179

BSE IT 1.4 78.0 5,830

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.2 22.6 12,231

NASDAQ (0.1) (1.5) 2,737

FTSE (0.2) (11.6) 5,702

Nikkei 1.4 123.9 9,050

Hang Seng 1.7 330.5 20,019

Straits Times 2.0 58.2 2,906

Shanghai Com 1.6 37.8 2,473

Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Infosys (1.0) (0.6) $60.2

Wipro 2.9 0.3 $10.8

ICICI Bank 2.2 0.9 $38.9

HDFC Bank (0.1) (0.0) $32.4

Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances 1,728

Declines 1,139 489

Unchanged 92 53

Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,513

NSE 14,329


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MarketOutlook|IndiaResearch

October 31, 2011 2

Result ReviewsMaruti SuzukiFor 2QFY2012, Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported an extremely poor performance,

which was significantly lower than our as well as consensus estimates. The

companys net sales reported in-line 14.4% yoy (8.2% qoq) decline to `7,832cr.

The top-line performance was negatively affected by labor problems at the

Manesar plant during the quarter, resulting in loss of 28,539 units. Led by labor

problems at the Manesar plant and weak demand for passenger cars, total

volumes witnessed a decline of 19.6% yoy (10.4% qoq). Average net realization,

however, witnessed a 4.8% yoy (1.1% qoq) improvement, led by price increases

and better product mix (higher share of diesel cars).

MSILs EBITDA margin declined substantially by 419bp yoy (324bp qoq) to 6.3%on account of negative effect of operating leverage, higher discounts, appreciating

Yen and high promotional expenses. While Yen appreciation resulted in higher

royalty outgo, thereby affecting the margin by 50bp yoy (120bp qoq), higher

advertising expenses led to a 90bp yoy (100bp qoq) contraction in margin. Other

manufacturing expenses coupled with higher discounts accounted for the balance

decline in operating margin. As a result, operating profit dipped by 48.5% yoy

(39.3% qoq) to `494cr. Led by poor operating performance and lower-than-

expected other income, net profit witnessed a sharp 59.8% yoy (56.2% qoq)

decline to `240cr.

At the CMP of`1,128, MSIL is trading at 13.1x FY2013E earnings. Our rating iscurrently under review and we shall come up with a detailed update post the

conference call with management.

Indian Overseas BankFor 2QFY2012, Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) reported a weak set of results with net

profit growing by muted 0.6% yoy, well below ours as well as streets expectation,

due to higher provisioning charges. Profit growth was also aided by a lower

effective tax rate (of 23.3%).

During 2QFY2012, the business momentum for the bank was stronger than the

industrys, with sequential advances and deposits growth of 4.5% (up 44.2% yoy)

and 8.2% (up 38.5% yoy), respectively. Calculated NIM in 2QFY2012 was flat

compared to 1QFY2012, while CASA ratio witnessed a 10bp qoq decline to

27.5% in 2QFY2012. The banks asset quality deteriorated significantly during

2QFY2012, with provisioning charges increasing by 108.6% yoy to `636cr. For

2QFY2012, gross NPA ratio stood at 3.1% (2.8% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio

stood at 1.2% (1.1% in 1QFY2012). The bank had migrated only accounts worth

`50lakhs to system-based NPA recognition system till 1QFY2012 and, hence, a

decline in asset quality was always on cards. Provision coverage ratio (includingtechnical write-offs) weakened by ~173bp qoq to 71.8%. At the CMP, the stock is

trading at 0.6x FY2013E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on thestock.


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October 31, 2011 3

Electrosteel CastingsElectrosteel Castings reported its 2QFY2012 results. The company's net sales

increased by 8.3% yoy to`

456cr. However, its raw-material cost also increased by29.8% yoy to `273cr in 2QFY2012. Hence, EBITDA decreased by 40.8% yoy to

`45cr. Interest expense grew by 45.9% yoy to `15cr, while other income decreased

by 23.0% yoy to `3cr. Tax rate decreased to 5.0% in 2QFY2012, compared to

32.0% in 2QFY2011. Hence, net profit decreased by 49.8% yoy to `19cr in

2QFY2012. The stock is under review currently.

JK Lakshmi CementDuring 2QFY2012, JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC) reported 33.2% yoy top-line growth

to `354cr. The companys dispatches rose by healthy 29.9% yoy to 1.13mn tonnesand realization improved by 2.5% yoy to `3,142/tonne. Operating margin

improved by 121bp yoy to 11.6%, aided by better realization. JKLCs operating

profit rose by 48.6% during the quarter. However, the companys bottom line rose

by lower 12.7% yoy to `6.5cr. The lower growth in the bottom line was on account

of higher depreciation (up 37.7% yoy), interest (up 79.6% yoy) and tax expenses

(`1.4cr in 2QFY2012 vs. negative tax of 1.7cr in 2QFY2011). We maintain ourBuy rating on the stock; the target price is under review.

Tata Sponge IronTata Sponge Iron Ltd.s (TSIL) revenue remained flat yoy at `174cr in 2QFY2012

as compared to `175cr in 2QFY2011; while on a qoq basis, revenue increased by

19.2% from `146cr in 1QFY2012. Sponge iron production was hampered in the

previous quarter due to iron ore supply issues. The companys EBITDA margin

came in at 17.2% for 2QFY2012, up 802bp yoy from 9.2% in 2QFY2011, due to

lower raw-material prices. Profit for the quarter stood at `22cr as compared to

`10cr in 2QFY2011. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with atarget price of `429, based on a target PE of 6x for FY2013E.

CCCLConsolidated Construction Consortium Ltd. (CCCL) posted a dismal set of

numbers once again for 2QFY2012. The companys top line grew by 9.5% yoy to

`535.8cr (`489.5cr), above our estimate of `465.0cr. However, a major

disappointment came on the margin front, as CCCL posted abysmal EBITDA

margin of 1.4% (7.8%), reporting a drop of 640bp yoy, against our expectation of

5.2%. On a sequential basis as well, the companys margin witnessed a decline of

340bp. The decline in margin can mainly be attributed to commodity price

pressures, along with increased employee cost and labor cost. Further, on the

bottom-line front, the company posted loss of `18.7cr vs. profit of `13.7cr in2QFY2011 and against our expectation of `1.4cr profit, mainly on account of

lower margin and higher interest cost (`17.2cr, a jump of 42.1%/11.3% yoy/qoq).

CCCL reported an order inflow of `321cr during the quarter, taking its


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October 31, 2011 4

outstanding order book to `5,936cr. The company has been disappointing on the

earnings front and posting erratic margins since the last few quarters. Hence,we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Result PreviewsICICI BankICICI Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the bank to

report net interest income growth of 13.3% yoy (up 3.6% qoq) to `2,497cr. Non-

interest income is expected to grow by 10.9% yoy and 6.5% qoq to `1,750cr. Cost-

to-income ratio is expected to improve from 44.9% in 1QFY2012 to 43.8% in

2QFY2012. Pre-provision profit of the bank is expected to increase by 7.9% yoy

and 6.8% qoq to `2,387cr. However, net profit is expected to increase by healthy

10.5% qoq and 19.1% yoy to `1,473cr on account of lower provisioning expenses

(expected to decline by 40.8% yoy and 16.4% qoq). At the CMP, the stock is

trading at valuations of 1.7x FY2013E ABV (without adjusting value of

subsidiaries). We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of`1,102.

NMDCNMDC is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top

line to grow by 18.6% yoy to `2,917cr on account of increased sales volumes aswell as realizations. The companys EBITDA margin is expected to improve by

519bp yoy to 80.0%. The bottom line is expected to grow by 33.7% yoy to

`1,844cr. We recommend Neutral on the stock.

Wipro Wipro is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the companys IT

services segment to post revenue of US$1,436mn (including revenue from SAIC),

up merely 2.0% qoq. Volume growth is expected to be 2.4% qoq. At the

consolidated level, we expect the company to record revenue of `8,923cr, up 4.2%

qoq. The company is expected to record a 329bp qoq decline in its EBIT margin to

18.7% for the IT services segment as the full impact of wage hikes given from

June 1, 2011, will flow in this quarter. At a consolidated level, Wipro is expected to

record a 251bp qoq decline in its EBIT margin to 15.0%. PAT is expected to come

in at `1,225cr. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

HULHUL is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the company toreport impressive yoy growth of 14.2% in its revenue to `5,345cr, led by a mix of

volume growth, price hikes and improved product mix. We expect the company to

post a 55bp yoy expansion in its operating margin to 12.6%. The company is


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October 31, 2011 5

expected to report earnings growth of 14% yoy, led by the top line growing to

`599cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Bank of BarodaBank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the

bank to report healthy net interest income growth of 14.8% yoy to `2,341cr. Non-

interest income, however, is expected to grow at a flat rate of 0.3% yoy. The bank

has already switched over all its accounts to system-based NPA recognition and,

hence, we expect a sequential 21.7% decline in provisioning expenses to `316cr.

Net profit is expected to increase by 6.8% yoy and 5.4% qoq to `1,088cr. At the

CMP, the stock is trading at 1.0x FY2013E ABV. We recommend Buy on the stockwith a target price of `871.

Canara BankCanara Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the bank

to report a 7.8% yoy decline in its net interest income to `1,846cr. Non-interest

income, however, is expected to increase by healthy 28.1% yoy to `640cr.

Operating income growth is expected to decline marginally by 0.6% yoy; however,

a lower 0.2% yoy rise in operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement

in its cost-to-income ratio to 43.8%. The bank has switched over accounts worth

`2lakhs and above already to system-based NPA recognition. The remaining

transformation had to be completed by September 2011, the effect of which isexpected to show in 2QFY2012 results. Provisioning expenses are expected to rise

sharply by 90.8% yoy to `301cr. Consequently, net profit is expected to decline by

14.1% yoy (up by strong 19.3 qoq) to `866cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at

0.9x FY2013E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

DaburDabur is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 numbers. For the quarter, we expect

the company to post robust growth of 23.5% yoy in its consolidated top line to

`1,202cr, driven by steady growth in its core brands. The bottom line is expected

to register slow growth of 8.6% yoy to `173cr, aided by margin contraction of

189bp yoy to 18.6%. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stockwith a target price of `115.

ColgateColgate is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect

the company to post modest 13.2% yoy growth in its top line to `625cr, aided by a

mix of value and volume growth. Earnings for the quarter are expected to register

7.2% yoy growth to `108cr, aided by margin contraction of 33bp yoy to 20%.

We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.


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October 31, 2011 6

Oriental Bank of CommerceOriental Bank of Commerce is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. The

banks NII is expected to decline by 4.7% yoy (flat qoq) to`

1,026cr. Other incomeis expected to increase by healthy 19.0% yoy to `255cr. Operating expenses are

expected to increase by 10.4% yoy (decline 0.9% qoq) to `536cr and pre-provision

profit is expected to decline by 7.6% yoy and 7.1% qoq to `745cr. We expect the

banks net profit growth to decline by 18.5% yoy (sequential decline of 8.6%) to

`324cr. The bank has already switched over accounts worth `10lakhs and above

to system-based NPA recognition. The remaining transformation had to be

completed by September 2011, the effect of which is expected to show in

2QFY2012 results. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2013E P/ABV. Werecommend a Neutral rating on the stock.

Indian BankIndian Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. The bank is expected

to post net interest income growth of 6.1% yoy to `1,043cr. Non-interest income is

expected to decline by 8.5% yoy to `259cr. Operating expenses are expected to

decline by 3.3% yoy (up 2.5% sequentially) to `511cr. Pre-provision profit is

expected to increase by 7.2% yoy to `792cr. The bank has already switched over

all its accounts to system-based NPA recognition and, hence, we expect a

sequential 4.3% decline (up 27.3% yoy) in provisioning expenses to `169cr. Net

profit is expected to increase marginally by 1.2% yoy (up 3.4% qoq) to `421cr. At

the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.8x FY2013E ABV. We maintain ourAccumulate view on the stock with a target price of `220.

Corporation BankCorporation Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect

calculated NIM to remain flat sequentially and consequently expect net interest

income to register marginal 1.7% qoq growth for 2QFY2012. Other income is

expected to increase strongly by 33.1% yoy to `301cr. On a yoy basis, pre-

provision profit is expected to register only moderate growth of 3.0% yoy, asoperating expenses are expected to rise by 16.8% yoy. Provisioning expenses are

expected to increase sharply by 40.8% yoy (decline of 17.8% qoq) to `137cr,

resulting in a marginal decline of 0.8% in net profit to `349cr. At the CMP, the

stock is trading at 0.7x FY2013E ABV. We have a Buy rating on the stock with atarget price of `489.

UCO BankUCO Bank is expected to announce its 2QFY2012. We expect the bank to report a

20.6% yoy decline in its net interest income to `795cr. Non-interest income,however, is expected to post growth of 8.4% yoy to `249cr. Operating income is

expected to decline by 15.2% yoy. Operating expenses are expected to decline by

4.8% yoy (up 6.2% qoq) to `502cr. Due to a higher decline in operating income


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October 31, 2011 7

than operating expenses, the banks cost-to-income ratio is expected to deteriorate

to 48.1% compared to 42.8% in 2QFY2011. The bank has only switched over

accounts worth `50lakhs and above to system-based NPA recognition. The

remaining transformation had to be completed by September 2011, the effect ofwhich is expected to show in 2QFY2012 results. Provisioning expenses are

expected to increase by 6.9% qoq (down 42.9% yoy due to a high base) to `331cr.

Net profit is expected to increase by 59.3% yoy (down 35.1% qoq) to `190cr. At

the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV. We recommend a Reducerating on the stock with a target price of `66.

Jammu and Kashmir BankJammu and Kashmir Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We

expect the bank to report net interest income growth of 14.2% yoy to `426cr. Non-interest income is expected to be flat at `75cr. Cost-to-income ratio is expected to

be at 39.3% compared to 37.3% in 1QFY2012 and 36.4% in 2QFY2011. The

bank has already converted all its accounts to system-based NPA recognition and,

hence, we expect only a 7.2% yoy rise in provisioning expenses (decline of 6.4%

qoq) to `42cr. Net profit is expected to increase by 8.5% on a yoy basis to `177cr.

At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.9x FY2013E P/ABV. Wemaintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

IPCA LabsFor 2QFY2012, we estimate IPCA Labs top line to grow by 23.6% to `530cr.

OPM for the quarter is expected to decline by 580bp yoy to 17.7%, led by higher

other expenses. Adjusted net profit for the quarter is expected to decline by 2.2%

yoy. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 11.9x FY2012E and 8.7x FY2013Eearnings, respectively. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with atarget price of `358.

Vijaya Bank Vijaya Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. The banks net

interest income is expected to decline by 10.9% yoy (up 2.6% qoq) to `434cr.

Other income is expected to increase moderately by 2.0% yoy to `120cr.

Operating expenses are expected to increase by 4.4% yoy (up 21.3% qoq) to

`323cr, while pre-provision profit is expected to decline by 21.7% yoy and 28.9%

qoq to `232cr. The bank has already switched over all its accounts to system-

based NPA recognition and, hence, we expect a sequential 54.1% decline (up

4.6% yoy) in provisioning expenses to `106cr. Net profit is expected to decline

substantially by 34.9% yoy (up by strong 30.1% qoq) to `94cr. At the CMP, the

stock is trading at 0.8x FY2013E P/ABV. We recommend a Neutral rating on thestock.


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October 31, 2011 8

Dena BankDena Bank is slated to declare its 2QFY2012 results. The bank is expected to post

a decline of 3.7% yoy in its net interest income to `448cr. However, other income

is expected to increase by 9.2% yoy. Pre-provision profit is expected to decline by

6.8% yoy to `303cr. The bank has only switched over accounts worth `50lakhs

and above to system-based NPA recognition. The remaining transformation had to

be completed by September 2011, the effect of which is expected to show in

2QFY2012 results. Hence, we expect provisioning expenses to rise sharply by

113.0% yoy to `155cr. Consequently, we expect net profit to decline substantially

by 37.6% yoy to `100cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2013E ABV.

We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

United BankUnited Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. The bank is expected

to post net interest income growth of 8.2% yoy to `570cr. Non-interest income is

expected to decline by 19.8% yoy to `122cr. Operating expenses are expected to

rise by 10.2% yoy (up 10.8% sequentially) to `356cr. Pre-provision profit is

expected to decrease by 5.5% yoy to `335cr. The bank has already switched over

all its accounts to system-based NPA recognition and, hence, we expect a

sequential 18.3% decline (down 18.3% yoy) in provisioning expenses to `178cr.

Net profit is expected to increase marginally by 0.2% yoy (down 17.0% qoq) to

`110cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.6x FY2013E ABV. Werecommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `82.Discontinuation of coverage We have discontinued coverage on the following stocks: Bayer Cropscience,

Jain Irrigation, Denso India, Elecon Engg., TIL, McNally Bharat, Grasim Ind.,

Kesoram, Hotel Leela, Everonn, 3i Infotech, Educomp, Deccan Chronicle, Polyplex,

Balrampur Chini, Surya Roshni, Essel Propack, Bajaj Hindusthan, Philips Carbon,

Piramal Health, Gateway Distriparks, Container Corp., GE Shipping,

ABG Shipyard and Allcargo Global.


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October 31, 2011 9

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus EstimatesBank of Baroda Ltd. (31/10/2011)

Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,077 1,019 5.6 1,033 4.2

Source: Bloomberg

BPCL Ltd. (31/10/2011)Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 47,168 35,416 33.2 46,118 2.3

EBITDA (96) 2,487 (103.9) (2,164) (95.6)

EBITDA margin (%) (0) 7 (5)

Net profit 2 2,142 (99.9) (2,562) (100.1)

Source: Bloomberg

Dabur India Ltd. - Consolidated (31/10/2011)

Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,257 973 29.2 1,205 4.4

EBITDA 232 208 11.2 179 29.6

EBITDA margin (%) 18 21 15

Net profit 175 160 9.4 128 37.3

Source: Bloomberg

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (31/10/2011)

Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,369 4,681 14.7 5,504 (2.4)

EBITDA 711 647 9.8 754 (5.8)


Net profit 587 566 3.6 627 (6.5)

Source: Bloomberg

Wipro Ltd. - Consolidated (31/10/2011)Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 8,953 7,731 15.8 8,564 4.5

EBITDA 1,689 1,611 4.8 1,729 (2.3)


Net profit 1,311 1,285 2.0 1,335 (1.8)

Source: Bloomberg

ICICI Bank Ltd. (31/10/2011)


Source: Bloomberg


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October 31, 2011 10

NMDC Ltd. - Consolidated (31/10/2011)Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,625 2,460 6.7 2,783 (5.7)

EBITDA 1,966 1,840 6.8 2,255 (12.8)


Net profit 1,679 1,379 21.8 1,801 (6.8)

Source: Bloomberg

ACC Ltd. - Consolidated (01/11/2011)

Particulars (` cr) Q3 CY11E Q3 CY10 y-o-y (%) Q2 CY11 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,314 1,759 31.5 2,539 (8.9)

EBITDA 369 218 69.6 578 (36.2)


Net profit 227 86 162.9 328 (30.8)

Source: Bloomberg

Ambuja Cement Ltd. (01/11/2011)

Particulars (` cr) Q3 CY11E Q3 CY10 y-o-y (%) Q2 CY11 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,860 1,564 18.9 2,173 (14.4)

EBITDA 355 302 17.6 598 (40.6)


Net profit 213 152 40.2 348 (38.6)

Source: Bloomberg

Essar Oil Ltd. (01/11/2011)Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 11,961 10,909 9.6 149,460 (92.0)

EBITDA 688 497 38.4 928 (25.9)


Net profit 248 130 90.6 469 (47.2)

Source: Bloomberg

HPCL Ltd. (01/11/2011)Particulars (` cr) Q2 FY12E Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 41,929 30,710 36.5 40,798 2.8

EBITDA (184) 2,483 (107.4) (2,568) (92.9)

EBITDA margin (%) (0) 8 (6)

Net profit (228) 2,090 (110.9) (3,080) (92.6)

Source: Bloomberg

Punjab National Bank Ltd. (01/11/2011)


Source: Bloomberg


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October 31, 2011 11

Economic and Political News

Import curbs on China likely as deficit grows

Draft Pharma policy balances act between consumer, industry IRDA may end third party insurance pool Mandatory regassified-LNG to increase power costs

Corporate News

RIL says drop in D6 gas fields output irreversible IOB may open fourteen branches abroad NMDC may bid for Russias Vincy Coal ISPAT hopes checked, JSW says setback temporarySource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

Results Calendar

31/10/2011ICICI Bank, NMDC, Wipro, HUL, Bank of Baroda, BPCL, Canara Bank, Dabur India, Colgate, Indian Bank, Oriental Bank,Corporation Bank, UCO Bank, Ipca labs, J & K Bank, Vijaya Bank, Dena Bank, United Bank, LMW, Greenply, Subros

01/11/2011 Punjab Natl. Bank, Ambuja Cements, ACC, HPCL, Essar Oil, Divi's Lab., Central Bank, Bajaj Electrical, Orchid Chemicals

02/11/2011 Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Taj GVK

03/11/2011 SAIL, Sun TV Network, Ashok Leyland, Gujarat Gas, TVS Motor

04/11/2011 ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Marico, Nagarjuna Const.

05/11/2011 Motherson Sumi


12/12


October 31 2011 12

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market outlook 31st october 2011

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