market outlook 300812

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 300812

1/13

Market Outlook August 30, 2012

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Market Outlook August 30, 2012

Dealers DiaryIndian ma rkets are expected to o pen on a nega tive note following weak o pening tomost of the Asian indices as weak Japanese retail sales data and South Korean

business confidence adds to signs of an economic slowdown.

The US markets showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day onWednesday, as traders largely ignored upbeat US economic data, including areport from the Commerce Department showing slightly stronger than previouslyestimated US economic growth in the second quarter. The report showed that theGDP increased by 1.7% in the second quarter compared to the 1.5% growthpreviously reported. A separate report from the National Association of Realtorsshowed that pending home sales rose by 2.4% which was more than expected inthe month of July, reaching their highest level in over two years. Additionally, theFederal Reserve released its Beige Book which indicated that US economic activitycontinued to expand gradually in July and early August.

G oing ahead , trading o n Thursday is likely to be im pacted by the release of repo rtson weekly jobless claims and personal income and spending. Nonetheless, tradingactivity globally may be somewhat subdued as traders wait on Bernanke's JacksonHole speech.

Markets TodayThe trend d eciding level for the day is 17,5 39 / 5,3 05 levels. If N IFTY trades abo vethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rallyup to 17,606 17,721 / 5,328 5,368 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below17,539 / 5,305 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to17,423 17,356 / 5 ,265 5,243 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 SEN SEX 17 ,356 17 ,423 17 ,539 17 ,606 17 ,721N IFTY 5 ,243 5 ,265 5 ,305 5 ,328 5 ,368

News Analysis New bank license rules may apply to existing banks BT m ay sell ~ 5% stake in Tech Ma hind ra O rchid sells dr ugs units to Ho spira Result Reviews: M phasis

Refer detailed news ana lysis on the following p ag e

Net Inf lows (August 28, 2012)`

cr Purch Sa les N et M TD YTD

FII 2 ,007 1 ,838 169 2 ,331 59 ,697MFs 494 718 (224 ) (918 ) (9,569 )

FII Derivatives (August 29, 2012)`

cr Purch Sa les N et O pen Interest

Index Futures 4,97 7 4,98 4 (7) 19 ,173Stock Futures 5,91 0 6,48 9 (579) 27 ,074

Gainers / LosersG a iners Losers

C ompa ny Price (

`

) chg (%) Co mpa ny Price (

`

) chg (%) Wockhardt 1,190 6 .7 JP Associ ates 64 (9.2)

United Spirits 97 9 5 .5 Educom p Solutions 13 6 (7.9)

Amtek Auto 90 3 .8 Manappuram Fin. 34 (7.9)

Pipavav Defence 66 3 .1 Jet Air India 34 0 (6.3)

India Infoline 55 3 .1 SAIL 78 (5.7)

D om estic Indices C hg (%) (Pts) (C lose)

BSE Sensex (0.8) (140.9) 17,491

Nifty (0.9) (46.8) 5,288

MID CAP (0.5) (32.2) 5,962

SMALL CAP (0.9) (54.7) 6,364

BSE HC 0 .3 19.9 7 ,417

BSE PSU (1.0) (71.2) 6,959

BAN KEX (0.4) (43.5) 11,501

AUTO (1.4) (129.4) 9,344

METAL (1.8) (179.9) 9,847

O IL & G AS (1.1) (94.3) 8,309

BSE IT (0.9) (51.4) 5,746

G lobal Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (C lose)

Dow Jones 0 .0 4.5 13 ,107NASDAQ 0 .1 4.0 3 ,081

FTSE (0.6) (32.2) 5,744

Nikkei 0 .4 36.5 9 ,070

Hang Seng (0.1) (23.3) 19,789

Straits Time s 0 .1 1.5 3 ,042

Shangha i Com (1.0) (19.9) 2,053

Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (C lose)

INFY (0.8) (0.3) $42.8

WIT 0 .2 0.0 $8 .0IBN (0.3) (0.1) $33.1

HDB 0 .6 0.2 $34 .1

Adva nces / D eclines BSE N SE

Advances 1,060 457

Declines 1,72 0 1,00 8

Unchanged 150 94

Volume s (`

cr)

BSE 1,839

NSE 9,000


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Market OutlookAugust 30, 2012

New bank license rules may apply to existing banks

As per the media reports, the finance ministry is not expecting any movement onthe issue of new bank licenses given the current distrust atmosphere. Meanwhile,they have taken up the review of the banking licenses norms and are pressing the

RBI for applicability of some of the liberal parts of the new rules to existing banks.Even, RBI has clearly indicated that it does not want to move on bank licenses tillthe passing of the banking regulation amendment act in the parliament. In theam ended act, RBI is seeking huge power to look at the boo ks of any grou p entityof a group, which has a banking license. Hence, considering the current theparliament impasse; the issue of new banking licenses is likely to take time, whichwould b e favorable for the incumb ent banks.

BT may sell ~ 5% stake in Tech Mahindra

As per media reports, BT mig ht be selling ~ 5% stake in Tech Ma hindra for a t aprice band of

`

735 -`

790 each, a discount of 5 -12% from its yesterdays closingprice of

`

835, which might give the stock price some downward push in the near-term. BT has said that it may consider selling Tech Mahindra shares in the future ifmarkets proved attractive. BT has been looking at part-sale of its stake in TechMahindra for quite some time, but has been waiting for right market conditions togo ahead. At the end of last quarter, the total promoter holding in Tech Mahindrastood at 7 0.78 %, which included 4 7.57% with M ahindra & Ma hindra, 23.16 % withBT and 0.05% with Mahindra BT Investment Company Mauritius Ltd. Media hadearlier reported that some globa l private equity firms had show n interest in buyingthe British com pany's stake in Tech M ahindra . We m aintain N eutral rating on Tech

M ahindra given recent stock run-up.

Or chid sells drugs units to Hospira

A d ebt overhang coupled with the inability to r aise equity has forced O rchidPharma to sell its Penicillin and Penem active pharmaceutical ingredient (API),including its plant in Aurangabad, to US-based Hospira for around $200 million(

`

1,2 00 crore). O rchid Pharm a, the pharma ceutical division of O rchid Chem icalsand Pharmaceuticals, said on Wednesday that it had entered into a businesstransfer agreement (BTA) with Hospira for the sale and transfer of Penicillin andPenem API business and the API facility located in Aurangabad (Maharashtra)together with an associated process R&D infrastructure in Chennai. The saleincludes the related Penicillin and Penem product portfolio and pipeline. Nearly830 employees would be transferred to Hospira as part of the business transfer.

The funds raised from this sale will be used to repay high-cost debt. The companyhas nearly

`

2,2 00 crore as debt on its bo oks. O rchid intends to rep ay`

800 crorefrom the sale proceeds of nearly

`

1,200 crore and use the balance to fundworking capital requirements and invest in newer businesses. Assuming allnecessary approvals are secured, the transaction is expected to be completed inthe third quarter of 2012 -13.

At current valuations, the deal has been done at attractive valuations and the saleof the unit will entail a loss of revenues to the extent of

`

450cr annually and`

100cr on the EBDIT levels. However, the management expects to make up for the


3/13


Market OutlookAugust 30, 2012

same through the savings on the interest component on back of debt repayment.O n the EBDITA front, the EBDITA po st the deal is expected to be a rou nd 1 4- 15 %and consequent to the same the companys sales mix would be API: Formulationof 70:30 and the EPS for FY2014 is expected to come down to

`

12-13. Thus, atthe current market price, the stock trades at 8.6xFY2014E earnings, leaving little

room for further upsides andhence we recommend a Neutral stance on the stock.

Result Review

Mphasis - 3QFY2012 (CMP:`

370 / TP: Under review)

M phasis anno unced its 3Q FY201 2 num bers which underperform ed ourexpectation on revenue front however came higher than expectations on the netprofit front. The dollar revenues came in at US$252mn, down 3.5% qoq, due tosoftness in developed markets which led to ramp down in some projects from HP

channel. In INR terms revenues came in at`

1,355cr, up merely 1.9% qoq. Thecompany again witnessed headcount reduction in Application as well as ITObusiness, which led to increase in the respective utilization levels. EBITDA marginof the company remained almost flat qoq at 19.7% as gains from INRdepreciation were absorbed due to wage hikes given during the quarter. PATcame in at

`

209 cr, aided b y other income of`

48 cr. The com pany added 24 newclients during the quarter, out of which 20 were added in direct channel.The stockis currently under re view.

Y/ E Sales O PM PAT EPS RO E P/ E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March (`

cr) (%) (`

cr) (`

) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY201 3E 5,704 18.6 754 36.0 14.0 10.3 1.4 4.7 0.9FY201 4E 6,009 17.7 777 37.1 12.6 10.0 1.3 4.2 0.7

Economic and Poli tical News Inflation still key threa t: Subb ara o Indian m onsoon m ay not be hit by El N ino: Ashish Bahuguna G overnment app roves US$4 .1bn plan to spur electric and hybrid vehicle sales Banks may get more time to meet priority sector target

Corporate N ews Business environ men t rema ins subd ued: SD Shibulal, Infosys Jet, IndiGo fares above industry average: DG CA SKS Microfinance allots 44.5 lk shares to Kumaon investment

Source: Economic Times, Business Stand ard , Business Line, Financia l Express, Mint


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5/13

Market StrategyAugust 30, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 : Q uarterly G D P trends

5. 9

7 .5

9. 8

7. 4

9 .4

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4 Q F Y 0 9

1 Q F Y 1 0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

2 Q F Y 1 1

3 Q F Y 1 1

4 Q F Y 1 1

1 Q F Y 1 2

2 Q F Y 1 2

3 Q F Y 1 2

4 Q F Y 1 2

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 : IIP trends

3 .7 3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6. 0

2 .7

1. 0

4. 3

(2.8) (0.9)

2. 5

(1.8)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 : M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 8 10.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9 7. 4

7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 3 6. 9

0. 02. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

N o v - 1 1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 : M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 : Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

Expo rts yo y g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6 : Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


6/13

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 130 - 2,528 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 18.6 16.1 3.9 3.4 22.6 22.5 1.8 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 116 170 5,352 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.7 6.8 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 373 402 3,183 2,844 3,225 15.4 15.5 31.7 36.6 11.8 10.2 3.0 2.4 28.8 26.2 1.0 0.9

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 91 99 4,561 13,412 15,041 11.0 11.0 11.5 14.2 7.9 6.4 1.4 1.1 18.7 19.4 0.5 0.4 Ashok Leyland Buy 21 30 5,468 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 9.4 7.5 1.7 1.5 13.3 15.6 0.4 0.4

Automotive Axle Buy 341 430 516 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 9.2 7.9 1.8 1.6 21.2 21.3 0.6 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,627 - 47,087 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 15.0 13.4 6.2 5.0 46.1 41.3 1.8 1.6Bharat Forge Buy 283 351 6,586 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 13.9 11.3 2.6 2.2 20.0 20.9 1.1 1.0

Bosch India Neutral 8,641 - 27,132 9,034 10,286 17.8 18.3 373.6 435.8 23.1 19.8 4.8 3.9 20.5 19.8 2.7 2.3CEAT Buy 110 164 375 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.4 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 134 149 11,356 5,899 6,771 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.1 18.2 14.6 3.2 2.8 19.0 20.2 1.6 1.3FAG Bearings Neutral 1,561 - 2,594 1,505 1,747 17.7 18.0 111.5 130.0 14.0 12.0 2.9 2.4 22.8 21.7 1.5 1.2

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,850 2,428 36,935 26,097 29,963 15.0 15.3 139.5 151.8 13.3 12.2 6.3 4.8 54.6 44.3 1.1 1.0JK Tyre Buy 107 135 439 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 773 879 47,433 36,536 41,650 11.6 11.5 49.3 54.9 15.7 14.1 3.2 2.8 22.1 21.1 1.0 0.9

Maruti Neutral 1,169 - 33,759 42,887 49,079 5.5 6.6 66.8 87.6 17.5 13.3 2.0 1.8 12.1 14.1 0.6 0.5Motherson Sumi Buy 186 216 7,270 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 13.9 10.3 3.3 2.6 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

Subros Buy 29 34 173 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.4 5.1 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3Tata Motors Buy 234 292 62,363 195,096 219,428 12.8 12.8 39.0 43.9 6.0 5.3 1.7 1.3 32.6 28.2 0.4 0.3

TVS Motor Accumulate 38 43 1,815 7,545 8,301 6.2 6.1 4.9 5.4 7.8 7.1 1.4 1.2 18.8 18.2 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 728 498 15,436 8,760 10,023 5.5 7.5 12.4 20.7 58.6 35.1 5.6 5.0 10.1 15.2 1.7 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 256 - 1,847 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 10.4 8.7 1.5 1.4 15.3 16.7 - 0.5BHEL Neutral 216 - 52,966 47,801 43,757 19.4 19.8 25.7 23.9 8.4 9.1 1.8 1.6 22.7 18.3 1.0 0.9

Blue Star Neutral 175 - 1,572 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 12.5 16.2 14.0 10.8 3.4 2.8 26.1 28.2 0.6 0.5Crompton Greaves Buy 111 128 7,124 12,691 14,096 7.0 8.5 6.5 9.1 17.1 12.2 1.8 1.7 11.1 14.2 0.6 0.5Jyoti Structures Buy 38 59 312 2,622 2,801 10.3 10.7 8.7 13.1 4.4 2.9 0.4 0.4 10.3 14.0 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 57 69 1,463 6,858 7,431 7.5 8.3 9.0 11.5 6.3 5.0 1.2 1.0 26.9 27.2 0.3 0.3LMW Neutral 1,953 - 2,200 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 13.6 11.8 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.3

Thermax Neutral 490 - 5,839 5,514 5,559 8.9 9.6 26.9 28.4 18.2 17.3 3.2 2.8 18.4 17.1 1.0 1.0


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


7/13



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,337 - 25,107 11,220 12,896 20.0 20.6 71.1 81.2 18.8 16.5 3.3 3.0 18.1 19.0 1.9 1.6 Ambuja Cements Neutral 187 - 28,811 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 17.3 15.6 3.6 3.2 19.7 19.8 2.4 2.0

India Cements Neutral 85 - 2,597 4,393 4,914 19.3 19.5 10.1 12.7 8.4 6.6 0.7 0.7 8.8 10.6 1.0 0.9J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 94 - 1,147 1,964 2,278 19.5 20.4 16.3 17.9 5.8 5.3 0.8 0.7 14.7 14.6 0.7 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 178 - 4,232 3,608 3,928 27.4 26.9 15.6 18.1 11.4 9.8 1.8 1.5 16.8 16.9 1.8 1.5Shree Cements Neutral 3,493 - 12,167 5,767 6,337 28.4 26.9 216.9 253.3 16.1 13.8 5.5 4.7 24.7 23.4 1.6 1.2

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,714 - 46,971 20,167 22,752 21.7 23.0 90.8 107.8 18.9 15.9 18.9 15.9 - - 1.9 1.8Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 250 304 1,318 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 11.1 9.4 1.2 1.1 11.4 11.9 2.5 2.8

Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 262 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 9.5 5.3 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4Hind. Const. Neutral 15 - 925 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (6.8) (15.8) 0.8 1.0 (11.4) (5.6) 1.1 1.1IRB Infra Buy 122 166 4,057 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.5 16.9 7.9 7.2 1.2 1.1 16.6 15.8 2.6 2.5

ITNL Buy 166 232 3,234 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 28.4 6.8 5.9 1.0 0.9 16.0 16.2 2.6 2.8IVRCL Infra Buy 39 61 1,033 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 15.3 8.5 0.5 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 64 91 13,599 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 15.1 12.8 1.2 1.2 8.5 9.3 2.2 1.9Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,350 1,553 82,864 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 16.9 15.8 2.9 2.5 16.3 15.1 1.5 1.3

Madhucon Proj Buy 30 56 224 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 6.5 6.5 0.3 0.3 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7Nagarjuna Const. Buy 33 45 845 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 10.8 9.4 0.4 0.3 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.6

Patel Engg. Neutral 67 - 469 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 4.8 4.6 0.3 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0Punj Lloyd Neutral 45 - 1,506 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 26.7 14.7 0.5 0.5 1.9 3.4 0.5 0.5Sadbhav Engg. Buy 130 182 1,949 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 15.4 12.4 2.1 1.8 15.0 15.6 0.8 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 192 265 949 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 8.2 6.5 0.8 0.7 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

Financials Allahabad Bank Accumulate 119 128 5,938 7,233 8,579 3.1 3.3 40.5 40.9 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.5 19.4 17.0 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 91 - 5,067 4,959 5,787 3.1 3.1 22.7 24.5 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.6 16.0 15.3 - - Axis Bank Buy 1,019 1,373 42,250 15,961 19,583 3.1 3.2 117.3 143.1 8.7 7.1 1.6 1.4 20.1 20.8 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 624 829 24,446 15,830 19,300 2.6 2.7 118.9 147.1 5.3 4.2 0.8 0.7 16.7 18.0 - -Bank of India Buy 259 323 14,887 13,159 15,851 2.4 2.5 61.1 71.1 4.3 3.7 0.7 0.6 16.6 17.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 44 - 2,571 3,471 3,889 3.1 3.1 9.0 11.5 4.8 3.8 0.6 0.6 13.7 15.5 - -Canara Bank Buy 313 421 13,846 11,334 13,629 2.2 2.3 75.4 85.1 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.6 15.2 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 64 - 4,696 7,181 8,365 2.5 2.7 16.3 21.8 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.6 12.7 15.1 - -


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


8/13



Financials

Corporation Bank Buy 367 436 5,438 5,067 5,998 2.1 2.3 105.6 111.0 3.5 3.3 0.6 0.5 17.6 16.3 - -Dena Bank Buy 86 107 3,014 3,177 3,595 2.8 2.8 25.2 25.4 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.5 18.9 16.4 - -

Federal Bank Accumulate 408 459 6,969 2,697 3,171 3.4 3.4 47.9 58.0 8.5 7.0 1.1 1.0 13.6 14.7 - -HDFC Reduce 715 671 109,615 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 22.7 18.9 4.5 4.0 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 589 - 138,946 21,936 27,454 4.4 4.4 28.7 36.0 20.6 16.4 3.9 3.3 20.7 22.0 - -ICICI Bank Buy 917 1,169 105,440 22,356 27,157 2.9 3.0 68.7 82.0 13.4 11.2 1.6 1.5 14.2 15.5 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 84 101 10,681 7,952 9,876 1.9 2.2 18.5 23.6 4.5 3.5 0.6 0.5 12.8 14.7 - -Indian Bank Buy 159 190 6,818 6,294 7,191 3.4 3.4 40.6 44.9 3.9 3.5 0.6 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -IOB Buy 68 80 5,388 7,473 8,732 2.5 2.5 16.7 22.6 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.4 11.8 14.4 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 927 1,026 4,494 2,625 2,921 3.6 3.5 194.4 191.9 4.8 4.8 0.9 0.8 21.2 18.0 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 245 279 12,387 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 11.6 8.6 1.9 1.6 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 214 278 6,245 6,518 7,458 2.8 2.9 61.3 65.1 3.5 3.3 0.5 0.5 15.2 14.3 - -Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 666 950 22,605 20,116 23,625 3.3 3.4 152.8 173.9 4.4 3.8 0.8 0.7 18.2 18.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 22 27 2,441 1,514 1,717 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.2 5.4 5.1 1.0 0.9 20.5 18.5 - -St Bk of India Buy 1,829 2,270 122,754 64,470 75,940 3.5 3.5 224.4 258.7 8.2 7.1 1.4 1.2 17.6 17.8 - -Syndicate Bank Buy 93 119 5,601 6,840 7,996 2.9 3.0 25.7 29.2 3.6 3.2 0.6 0.5 17.9 17.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 63 - 4,164 5,488 6,338 2.4 2.5 17.3 17.7 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.3 - -Union Bank Buy 152 230 8,368 10,299 12,227 2.9 3.0 42.1 49.3 3.6 3.1 0.6 0.5 16.7 17.1 - -

United Bank Buy 51 79 1,834 3,634 4,194 2.8 2.9 18.2 23.0 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.4 15.0 16.7 - - Vijaya Bank Neutral 47 - 2,346 2,579 3,028 2.1 2.3 8.8 11.6 5.4 4.1 0.6 0.6 11.1 13.3 - -

Yes Bank Buy 331 453 11,736 3,255 4,228 2.8 3.0 34.2 42.7 9.7 7.7 2.1 1.7 23.3 23.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,701 - 35,504 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 30.6 25.6 10.3 8.1 37.4 35.3 3.1 2.6Britannia Buy 488 584 5,824 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 23.6 19.2 9.3 7.1 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.8Colgate Neutral 1,185 - 16,112 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.3 34.6 41.0 34.2 28.9 31.5 23.9 99.5 94.1 5.2 4.5

Dabur India Neutral 125 - 21,743 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 27.9 24.1 11.5 9.1 43.2 41.5 3.6 3.0GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,881 - 12,115 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 27.6 23.3 8.6 6.9 34.4 32.8 3.5 2.9

Godrej Consumer Neutral 680 - 23,139 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 31.1 25.7 6.9 5.7 25.5 25.4 4.0 3.3HUL Neutral 523 - 113,034 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 36.7 31.7 21.8 16.8 70.9 59.8 4.3 3.7ITC Neutral 269 - 211,334 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 29.0 25.0 9.6 8.0 35.6 35.0 6.9 5.9


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 195 - 12,598 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.8 8.5 28.8 23.1 7.9 6.1 31.4 29.7 2.6 2.2Nestle* Neutral 4,693 - 45,250 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 40.9 33.6 24.7 17.2 71.2 60.3 5.3 4.4

Tata Global Accumulate 125 136 7,742 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.9 18.9 16.0 1.9 1.8 8.6 9.5 1.0 0.9

IT

HCL Tech Accumulate 548 585 37,993 24,400 27,049 18.6 17.5 41.1 45.0 13.3 12.2 3.0 2.6 22.7 21.1 1.5 1.3

Hexaware Accumulate 123 133 3,648 1,947 2,161 22.0 21.4 11.4 12.1 10.9 10.1 2.8 2.4 26.4 24.0 1.6 1.4

Infosys Accumulate 2,390 2,530 137,224 39,151 41,743 31.6 31.9 161.9 174.5 14.8 13.7 3.5 3.0 23.8 22.1 2.9 2.6Infotech Enterprises Neutral 180 - 2,008 1,889 2,065 18.0 17.5 18.0 19.7 10.0 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.5 13.7 0.7 0.6KPIT Cummins Neutral 127 - 2,266 2,149 2,331 15.6 14.8 10.7 11.2 11.8 11.3 2.5 2.0 20.6 17.8 1.0 0.9

Mahindra Satyam Neutral 96 - 11,274 7,574 8,062 19.6 18.4 9.5 9.7 10.1 9.9 1.6 1.4 16.1 14.1 1.1 0.9Mindtree Accumulate 650 708 2,656 2,341 2,513 18.6 17.1 66.5 70.8 9.8 9.2 2.2 1.8 22.3 19.3 1.0 0.8Mphasis Accumulate 369 390 7,752 5,704 6,009 18.6 17.7 36.0 37.1 10.3 10.0 1.4 1.3 14.0 12.6 0.9 0.7

NIIT Buy 31 40 513 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.7 16.7 18.4 0.3 0.2Persistent Neutral 386 - 1,543 1,193 1,278 25.6 24.3 42.6 44.3 9.1 8.7 1.6 1.4 17.2 15.5 0.9 0.8

TCS Neutral 1,343 - 262,767 61,046 67,507 29.3 29.1 67.3 72.4 19.9 18.5 6.4 5.3 31.9 28.3 4.1 3.7Tech Mahindra Neutral 836 - 10,662 6,148 6,434 18.4 17.6 91.8 97.6 9.1 8.6 2.1 1.7 23.4 20.2 1.7 1.6

Wipro Buy 365 420 89,747 43,492 48,332 19.4 19.3 25.1 28.0 14.5 13.0 2.7 2.3 18.6 18.0 1.7 1.5

Media

D B Corp Buy 184 236 3,381 1,597 1,785 22.9 24.2 11.1 13.9 16.6 13.2 3.2 2.7 20.2 22.1 2.0 1.8

HT Media Buy 93 113 2,193 2,111 2,263 15.2 15.2 7.3 8.1 12.7 11.5 1.4 1.2 11.2 11.2 0.6 0.4Jagran Prakashan Buy 92 112 2,902 1,506 1,687 22.5 23.2 6.2 7.0 14.8 13.1 3.5 3.2 25.0 25.7 2.1 1.9

PVR Neutral 184 - 477 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 13.8 11.7 1.5 1.3 13.2 13.8 1.2 1.0

Sun TV Network Neutral 285 - 11,237 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 15.4 13.4 3.9 3.4 27.1 27.5 5.1 4.4Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 465 - 9,868 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 9.5 7.6 1.2 1.1 14.1 15.2 2.8 2.3Coal India Accumulate 360 385 227,200 69,808 75,550 27.4 27.4 26.0 28.3 13.8 12.7 4.0 3.2 32.5 28.1 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Buy 19 23 649 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.5 2.9 7.6 6.5 0.4 0.1 5.1 5.7 0.5 0.5Hind. Zinc Buy 123 144 51,866 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 14.3 15.5 8.6 7.9 1.6 1.4 20.5 18.9 2.3 1.7Hindalco Neutral 104 - 19,864 84,855 92,446 8.7 9.3 13.2 16.2 7.9 6.4 0.6 0.5 7.8 8.9 0.6 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 690 - 15,392 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 8.6 7.7 0.9 0.8 10.4 10.6 0.8 0.8MOIL Buy 233 271 3,916 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 9.5 8.9 1.5 1.3 16.0 15.5 1.9 1.7

Monnet Ispat Buy 289 379 1,859 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.3 5.1 0.7 0.6 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


10/13



Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 50 - 12,925 7,401 7,841 16.7 19.2 3.4 4.1 14.7 12.3 1.1 1.0 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.2NMDC Accumulate 192 214 76,083 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 9.1 8.2 2.4 2.0 29.6 26.5 4.0 3.4

SAIL Neutral 78 - 32,218 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.2 6.7 0.7 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.1 0.9Sesa Goa Accumulate 173 192 15,001 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 22.3 19.2 0.2 (0.2)

Sterlite Inds Buy 100 115 33,472 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.1 5.9 0.7 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.5 0.3Tata Steel Buy 374 481 36,362 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 7.7 5.9 0.8 0.7 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 118 148 424 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 3.6 3.2 0.5 0.4 15.1 14.8 0.7 0.6Prakash Industries Buy 53 73 706 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 17.9 22.6 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.4Godawari Power andIspat Buy 115 161 364 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.8 43.8 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.3 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Accumulate 339 380 64,710 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 6.0 6.2 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.9 2.3

GAIL Neutral 365 - 46,274 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.3 10.0 1.8 1.6 18.9 17.0 0.1 -ONGC Accumulate 276 312 235,747 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 9.0 8.5 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.3 1.2Reliance Industries Neutral 782 - 256,201 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 12.7 12.2 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas Neutral 292 - 3,739 2,472 3,267 16.1 11.5 21.2 19.2 13.7 15.2 4.7 4.0 33.4 28.7 1.4 1.0Indraprastha Gas Neutral 244 - 3,416 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 9.8 8.8 2.3 1.9 25.5 23.6 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Buy 151 176 11,359 22,696 29,145 8.1 6.6 14.1 14.2 10.7 10.7 3.2 2.6 34.1 26.9 0.6 0.4Gujarat State PetronetLtd. Neutral 80 - 4,496 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 9.4 10.8 1.6 1.4 18.1 14.0 5.2 5.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 68 91 1,277 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.3 7.5 2.5 1.9 27.9 29.2 0.9 0.8 Aurobindo Pharma Buy 112 156 3,266 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 9.5 8.9 1.0 0.4 17.9 16.4 1.1 1.0

Aventis* Neutral 2,193 - 5,050 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 23.1 21.1 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.7Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 883 953 18,080 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 24.5 19.2 5.8 4.6 25.8 26.8 3.1 2.6

Cipla Accumulate 366 399 29,411 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 19.9 18.3 3.3 2.8 17.8 16.6 3.4 2.9Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,689 - 28,668 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.2 18.2 4.2 3.5 22.4 21.0 3.0 2.6

Dishman Pharma Reduce 100 92 805 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.8 8.8 0.8 0.8 7.7 8.5 1.3 1.1GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,096 - 17,754 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.6 25.4 8.0 7.1 20.1 26.3 5.9 5.1

Indoco Remedies Buy 64 92 589 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.6 7.2 1.3 1.1 16.4 17.0 1.0 0.9Ipca labs Accumulate 417 475 5,260 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 14.3 11.4 3.4 2.7 26.1 26.1 2.0 1.6Lupin Accumulate 579 647 25,856 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 21.1 17.9 5.1 4.1 26.0 24.7 3.1 2.6

Orchid Chemicals Buy 112 140 787 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 6.7 5.0 0.6 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.8


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


11/13



Pharmaceuticals

Ranbaxy* Neutral 554 - 23,389 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 15.5 18.6 6.0 4.8 39.1 28.9 2.0 1.9Sun Pharma Neutral 676 - 69,913 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 26.0 24.0 4.9 4.2 20.3 18.8 6.4 5.0

Power

CESC Accumulate 304 342 3,794 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 6.8 6.4 0.7 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.0 1.1GIPCL Accumulate 68 77 1,025 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.3 6.2 0.7 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.1 1.0

NTPC Neutral 172 - 142,069 74,111 85,789 23.2 23.6 12.4 14.0 13.9 12.3 1.7 1.6 13.0 13.5 2.6 2.4

Real Estate Anant Raj Buy 45 78 1,324 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.3 3.5 0.3 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.3 2.5

DLF Neutral 192 - 32,527 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.0 14.3 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.8 4.8HDIL Buy 70 115 2,937 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.1 2.6 0.3 0.2 8.8 9.4 3.1 2.3

MLIFE Buy 344 396 1,404 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 10.7 9.3 1.1 1.0 10.4 11.0 2.1 1.8

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 242 - 92,014 79,542 87,535 30.9 32.2 10.3 15.0 23.6 16.1 1.7 1.6 7.2 9.6 1.9 1.6

Idea Cellular Neutral 75 - 24,659 22,988 25,333 26.4 26.9 3.5 4.9 21.5 15.2 1.7 1.6 8.1 10.2 1.5 1.3Rcom Neutral 48 - 9,959 21,553 22,494 31.0 30.7 3.5 4.5 13.9 10.8 0.3 0.3 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.8

zOthers

Abbott India Neutral 1,580 - 3,358 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 28.9 22.0 5.5 4.6 20.0 22.7 1.9 1.6Bajaj Electricals Buy 171 234 1,706 3,569 4,172 8.1 8.8 16.3 21.3 10.5 8.0 2.2 1.8 21.7 24.6 0.5 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 319 352 404 396 470 16.7 16.5 28.0 33.2 11.4 9.6 2.3 1.9 23.8 23.1 1.1 1.0Cravatex Buy 442 785 114 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 9.0 6.2 2.7 1.9 29.8 30.7 0.5 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 904 - 6,345 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 26.3 22.6 11.9 9.5 50.9 46.9 6.0 5.1Finolex Cables Buy 37 61 565 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 4.8 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Force Motors Buy 435 591 567 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.5 73.9 11.0 5.9 0.5 0.5 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1Goodyear India Accumulate 334 370 771 1,543 1,646 8.1 9.2 32.3 39.4 10.3 8.5 2.1 1.8 21.7 22.4 0.3 0.2Graphite India Buy 78 113 1,531 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 6.3 5.6 0.8 0.8 14.0 14.3 0.8 0.7

Greenply Industries Buy 193 309 466 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.5 4.4 1.1 0.9 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4HEG Accumulate 203 229 810 1,586 1,685 17.9 18.1 16.1 25.7 12.6 7.9 0.9 0.9 7.5 11.6 1.2 1.1

Hitachi Buy 111 130 255 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 40.4 10.2 1.5 1.3 3.7 13.6 0.4 0.3Honeywell Automation Accumulate 2,497 2,842 2,208 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 61.0 120.0 40.9 20.8 3.2 2.8 9.3 16.3 1.1 0.9

INEOS ABS India Accumulate 654 744 1,150 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 33.8 46.5 19.3 14.1 2.7 2.3 14.7 17.5 1.0 0.9ITD Cementation Accumulate 224 241 258 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 6.9 5.4 0.6 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 149 - 2,404 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 25.2 20.8 3.6 3.3 15.0 16.6 2.3 1.9

MCX Buy 1,121 1,440 5,717 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 18.0 15.6 4.9 4.3 27.5 27.4 7.3 6.0


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


12/13



zOthers

MRF Buy 9,969 12,884 4,228 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.7 7.0 1.5 1.2 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.4Page Industries Neutral 3,031 - 3,381 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 31.9 25.1 16.7 13.5 57.4 59.5 3.9 3.1

Relaxo Footwears Buy 583 684 700 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 11.4 8.5 3.0 2.2 30.3 30.2 0.9 0.7Sintex Industries Buy 54 79 1,484 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.0 3.5 0.5 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.5

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 295 392 277 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.5 3.8 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 19 38 559 7,279 8,290 20.5 20.5 13.4 16.3 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 12.3 13.1 0.7 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 31 43 1,494 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 8.6 5.8 12.4 3.9 - - 0.4 0.3TAJ GVK Buy 61 108 384 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.8 6.7 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3Tata Sponge Iron Buy 298 424 458 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.1 4.5 0.7 0.6 14.9 15.1 0.2 0.1

TVS Srichakra Accumulate 317 335 243 1,476 1,643 7.1 8.2 24.7 42.8 12.9 7.4 1.6 1.3 16.6 24.8 0.4 0.3United Spirits Neutral 979 - 12,802 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 31.5 22.8 2.5 2.2 8.1 10.3 1.9 1.7

Vesuvius India Neutral 351 - 712 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.2 12.2 2.1 1.9 15.8 16.2 1.2 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 29, 2012


August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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August 30, 2012

Market Outlook

market outlook 300812

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