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  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    Dealers Diary

    Indian markets are expected to open in the red today tracking a weak opening in

    SGX Nifty, which is down by 0.7%. The RBI has imposed some more measures to

    tighten liquidity to stabilize INR which could result in a decline in the markets today.

    Most of the Asian markets too are trading in the negative territory.

    US markets fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Tuesday after

    failing to sustain an early upside move. The major indices ended the day in

    opposite directions. While the Dow edged up 0.1% to a new record closing high,

    the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%. S&P 500 too fell by 0.2% during the day. The initial

    strength on Wall Street was partly due to a positive reaction to the latest batch of

    earnings news, although buying interest reduced soon after the opening trade. The

    majority of the European market ended Tuesday's session in negative territory. The

    markets which witnessed early strength due to statements by Chinese Premier Li

    Keqiang that the nation will not let GDP growth go below 7% this year; fell in late

    trade.

    Meanwhile the Indian markets rose higher on Tuesday after the RBI announced

    further steps to control gold import.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 20,301/ 6,077 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 20,352 20,402 / 6,094 6,110 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    20,301 / 6,077 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    20,251 20,200 / 6,062 6,045 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 20,200 20,251 20,301 20,352 20,402

    NIFTY 6,045 6,062 6,077 6,094 6,110

    News Analysis

    RBI takes additional steps to check INR volatility Result Review: KPIT Cummins Result Preview: Cairn India, Hero MotoCorp, Ambuja Cements, Dabur India,

    Yes Bank, Central BankRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (July 22, 2013)

    ` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 1,763 2,144 (381) (5,986) 65,320

    MFs 521 593 (72) (1,105) (13,283)

    FII Derivatives (July 23, 2013)

    ` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 6,868 5,837 1,031 18,849

    Stock Futures 8,350 8,433 (83) 30,615

    Gainers / Losers

    Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Financial Tech 635 7.4 Gitanjali Gems 99 (5.0)

    Titan Inds 275 5.9 Berger Paints 241 (3.7)

    BOB 618 5.3 Coromandel Intl 174 (3.0)

    Reliance Cap 394 4.6 Reliance Comm 137 (2.9)

    HDIL 41 4.3 Asian Paints 4,939 (2.7)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.7 143 20,302

    Nifty 0.8 46 6,078

    MID CAP 0.1 3 5,999

    SMALL CAP (0.1) (6) 5,682

    BSE HC 0.2 16 9,341

    BSE PSU 0.9 53 5,961

    BANKEX 1.3 163 12,830

    AUTO 0.3 37 10,838

    METAL 0.8 59 7,518

    OIL & GAS 0.5 49 9,059

    BSE IT 0.4 32 7,181

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.1 22 15,568NASDAQ (0.6) (21) 3,579

    FTSE (0.4) (26) 6,597

    Nikkei 0.8 120 14,779

    Hang Sang 2.3 499 21,915

    Straits Times 0.6 19 3,254

    Shanghai Com 2.0 39 2,044

    Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (0.6) (0.3) $48.7

    WIT (0.9) (0.1) $8.1IBN (1.7) (0.6) $35.5

    HDB (2.2) (0.8) $37.1

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,139 659

    Declines 1,166 650

    Unchanged 167 105

    Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,632

    NSE 9,740

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    RBI takes additional steps to check INR volatility

    After taking measures to tighten monetary policy through stealth, the Reserve Bank

    went a step forward late yesterday evening to check exchange rate volatility. It has

    capped the total quantum of funds available under LAF to 0.5% of individual

    banks NDTL, which would be effective from July 24, 2013. The earlier imposedcap on overall allocation of funds at `75,000cr under LAP stands withdrawn. It has

    also increased the requirement of minimum daily CRR maintenance to 99% from

    70%, which would be effective from first day of fortnight beginning July 27, 2013.

    Earlier, last week the RBI had raised the MSF rate the emergency liquidity facility

    used by banks - by 200bp to 10.25%, restricted borrowing under LAF up to

    `75,000cr (now withdrawn) and announced open market bond sales for `12,000

    cr (of which it raised only`2,532 cr). The RBI observed that these measures have

    had a restraining effect on volatility with a concomitant stabilizing effect on the

    exchange rate. These measures are aimed at tightening liquidity in the system and

    push bond yields higher thus attracting capital flows in the bond market andcontaining depreciation of the INR. In June 2013, FII investors net sold more than

    USD5bn of Indian debt. As these measures would further tighten the domestic

    liquidity, it would effectively tantamount to raising interest rates, which is negative

    for economic and banking sector outlook. We believe that the RBI is likely to

    maintain status quo on the repo rate in its July 30, 2013 policy meet and any

    meaningful easing can be ruled out in the near-term.

    In addition, on Monday the RBI also tightened norms for import of gold with a view

    to contain the trade deficit. Under the new policy, the nominated banks/ agencies

    will ensure that at least 20% of every lot of import of gold is exclusively made

    available for the purpose of export. The 20% imported quantity would be retainedin the customs bonded warehouses and fresh imports of gold can take place only

    post exports to the extent of at least 75% of gold remaining in the customs bonded

    warehouse.

    Result Review

    KPIT (CMP: `134 / TP: Under review/ Upside: -)

    KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) reported its 1QFY2014 results which were

    broadly in-line with our estimates on revenue as well as on the bottomline front but

    disappointed on the operating margin front. The dollar revenues came in at

    US$109mn, up 3.1% qoq. In INR terms, revenues came in at Rs.613cr, up 7.6%

    qoq. EBITDA margin of the company declined by 197bp qoq to 15.8% due to

    negative impact of wage hikes given during the quarter. PAT came in at Rs.60cr,

    up 17% qoq, aided by other income of Rs.6cr as against loss of Rs.9cr in

    4QFY2013.

    For FY2014, management has maintained its USD revenue growth guidance of

    1416%, which is encouraging and higher than Nasscoms industry growth

    estimate of 12-14%. KPIT has reiterated its positive tone and does not witness any

    delay in decision making. We continue to remain positive on the stock with target

    price currently under review.

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 2,614 17.2 242 13.2 18.5 10.2 1.8 5.0 0.9

    FY2015E 2,923 16.7 265 14.4 16.7 9.3 1.5 4.1 0.7

    Result Preview

    Cairn India (CMP: `310/ TP: `345 / Upside: 11%)

    Cairn India is slated to report its 1QFY2014 results today. Cairn India's net sales

    are expected to decrease by 4.7% yoy to `4,232cr mainly due to lower

    realizations. Its operating margin is expected to decline by 147bps yoy to 77.2%

    whereas its bottom line is expected to decrease by 3.5% yoy to `2,857cr in line

    with decrease in top-line. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with atarget price of `345.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 16,482 72.0 10,168 53.2 19.6 5.8 1.1 3.5 2.6

    FY2015E 16,228 69.4 9,454 49.5 15.8 6.3 0.9 3.2 2.2

    Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `1,785/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

    Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We

    expect HMCL to post a marginal growth of ~1% yoy in its top-line to `6,290cr,

    aided by ~6% yoy growth in net average realization, driven by favorable product-mix and price increases. Total volumes though posted a decline of ~5% yoy due to

    the slowdown in domestic motorcycle demand. On the operating front, we expect

    EBITDA margins (adjusted for royalty payments) to report a marginal increase of

    25bp yoy to 11.2% as increase in power, freight and transportation costs and

    higher marketing spends are likely to be mitigated by easing of commodity prices

    and favorable currency movement. However, the bottom-line is expected to decline

    by ~8% yoy to `568cr as the tax benefits at the Haridwar plant expired in FY2013.

    At `1,785, the stock is trading at 12.8x its FY2015E earnings. Currently, we havea Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 25,298 14.1 2,202 110.3 39.9 16.2 5.9 8.4 1.2

    FY2015E 27,665 13.7 2,795 140.0 40.7 12.8 4.6 7.6 1.0

    Ambuja Cements (CMP: `196/TP:-/Upside:-)

    Ambuja Cements is expected to declare its 2QCY2013 results today. We expect

    the top-line to decline by 5.2% yoy to `2,434cr on account of lower volumes and

    realization. OPM is expected to decline by 561bp yoy to 23.0% due to lower

    realization and higher costs. Bottom-line is expected to decline by 23.3% yoy to`359cr. We maintain our neutral rating on the stock.

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)CY2013E 10,082 23.5 1,573 10.2 17.1 19.2 3.1 10.5 154

    CY2014E 11,653 24.6 1,881 12.2 18.7 16.1 2.9 8.3 -

    Note: Computed on TTM basis

    Dabur India (CMP: `171/TP:-/Upside:-)

    Dabur is expected to declare its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

    consolidated top-line to grow by 13.0% yoy to `1,652cr aided by higher volumes.

    OPM is expected to increase by 120bp yoy to 15.3%. Bottom-line is expected to

    increase by 26.1% yoy to `188cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation onthe stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,183 16.8 935 5.3 39.2 31.9 11.2 25.2 4.2

    FY2015E 8,340 16.8 1,094 6.3 36.6 27.3 8.9 21.5 3.6

    Yes Bank (CMP: `439 / TP: -/ Upside:- )

    Yes Bank is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the bank to

    report a strong NII growth of 42.0% yoy to `670cr, primarily on back of strong

    advances growth of 26% yoy. Non-interest income is also expected to grow

    strongly by 32.9% yoy to `383cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by

    31.1% yoy to `394cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to be higher at `87cr as

    compared to `30cr reported in 1QFY2013. Hence, we expect the bank to report

    strong PAT growth of 30.2% yoy during the quarter to `378cr. At the CMP, the

    stock is trading at 1.8x FY2015E ABV. We recommend a Neutral rating on thestock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 4,451 2.8 1,543 43.0 197.4 1.4 23.9 9.9 2.1

    FY2015E 5,526 2.8 1,784 49.7 238.5 1.3 22.8 8.5 1.8

    Central Bank- (CMP: `65 / TP: - / Upside: -)

    Central Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

    bank to report a healthy NII growth of 17.7% yoy to `1,621cr. Non-interest

    income is also expected to grow at a robust pace of 19.1% yoy to `384cr.

    Operating expenses are expected to increase by 16.4% yoy to `1,056cr which

    would result in healthy operating profit growth of 19.7% on a yoy basis at `949cr.

    Provisioning expenses are expected to decline by 2.4% yoy, and would aid

    earnings growth of 33.2% yoy to `447cr. At the CMP, the stock trades at

    valuations of 0.6x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation onthe stock.

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 8,406 2.5 1,462 12.6 100.7 0.5 10.6 5.1 0.6

    FY2015E 9,546 2.5 2,107 18.7 114.7 0.6 14.3 3.4 0.6

    Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate

    Ambuja Cement (24/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 2QCY13E 2QCY12 y-o-y (%) 1QCY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,428 2,566 (5.4) 2,545 (4.6)

    EBITDA 529 735 (28.0) 553 (4.3)

    EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 28.6 21.7

    Net profit 343 469 (26.9) 488 (29.7)

    Dabur India Consolidated (24/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,660 1,462 13.5 1,531 8.4

    EBITDA 252 216 17.0 273 (7.5)

    EBITDA margin (%) 15.2 14.8 17.8

    Net profit 187 149 25.0 201 (6.9)

    Hero Moto Corp (24/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,270 6,208 1.0 6,073 3.3

    EBITDA 823 937 (12.1) 850 (3.1)

    EBITDA margin (%) 13.1 15.1 14.0

    Net profit 551 616 (10.6) 574 (4.1)

    United Phosphorous Consolidated (24/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,537 2,180 16.4 2,773 (8.5)

    EBITDA 452 386 17.0 537 (15.9)

    EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 17.7 19.4

    Net profit 221 203 8.7 278 (20.8)

    Yes Bank Ltd (24/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 372 290 28.3 362 2.8

    ACC (25/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 2QCY13E 2QCY12 y-o-y (%) 1QCY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,795 2,778 0.6 2,911 (4.0)

    EBITDA 432 688 (37.3) 492 (12.2)

    EBITDA margin (%) 15.5 24.8 16.9

    Net profit 270 418 (35.5) 438 (38.4)

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    Gail (25/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 12,439 11,089 12.2 12,409 0.2

    EBITDA 1,682 1,923 (12.5) 1,468 14.6

    EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 17.3 11.8

    Net profit 953 1,134 (15.9) 618 54.2

    ITC (25/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 7,843 6,652 17.9 8,180 (4.1)

    EBITDA 2,771 2,368 17.0 2,706 2.4

    EBITDA margin (%) 35.3 35.6 33.1

    Net profit 1,897 1,602 18.4 1,928 (1.6)

    Maruti Suzuki (25/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 10,331 10,529 (1.9) 14,718 (29.8)

    EBITDA 1,200 786 52.6 2,399 (50.0)

    EBITDA margin (%) 11.6 7.5 16.3

    Net profit 644 424 52.0 1,240 (48.0)

    Sterlite Industries Consolidated (25/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 7,121 10,591 (32.8) 12,609 (43.5)

    EBITDA 2,121 2,308 (8.1) 4,065 (47.8)

    EBITDA margin (%) 29.8 21.8 32.2Net profit 1,000 1,202 (16.8) 2,027 (50.7)

    Zee Entertainment Consolidated (25/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 979 843 16.1 934 4.8

    EBITDA 258 233 10.7 242 6.6

    EBITDA margin (%) 26.4 27.7 25.9

    Net profit 190 158 20.1 180 5.8

    Bank of India (26/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 784 888 (11.6) 757 3.6

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

    Nestle India (26/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 2QCY13E 2QCY12 y-o-y (%) 1QCY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,209 1,987 11.2 2,248 (1.7)

    EBITDA 491 440 11.5 540 (9.1)

    EBITDA margin (%) 22.2 22.2 24.0

    Net profit 278 246 12.8 279 (0.5)

    Punjab National Bank (26/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,204 1,246 (3.4) 1,131 6.4

    Wipro Consolidated (26/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 9,939 10,620 (6.4) 9,613 3.4

    EBITDA 1,994 1,973 1.1 1,974 1.0

    EBITDA margin (%) 20.1 18.6 20.5Net profit 1,630 1,580 3.1 1,729 (5.7)

    Hindustan Unilever (26/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 7,000 6,250 12.0 6,367 9.9

    EBITDA 1,080 977 10.5 972 11.1

    EBITDA margin (%) 15.4 15.6 15.3

    Net profit 870 729 19.4 787 10.5

    Economic and Political News

    Poverty rate down to 22%: Plan panel India, China hold talks to resolve border dispute Moily rules out reconsidering gas pricing policy Spectrum sale: TRAI begins consultation for auction round III

    Corporate News

    BHEL bags 2 contracts from NTPC for setting up solar plants SAIL to raise capacity to 50 MT with `1.2 lakh-cr investment CoalMin, CIL unions meet on disinvestment remains inconclusive HUL enhances offering in water purifier segment L&T seeks shareholders' nod to raise $600 mn

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    July 24, 2013 Cairn India, Hero Motocorp, Ambuja Cements, Dabur India, Yes Bank, United Phosphorus, Central Bank

    July 25, 2013 ITC, GAIL, Sterlite Inds, Maruti, ACC, IOB, Thermax, FAG Bearings, MRF, TTK Healthcare

    July 26, 2013 Wipro, Nestle, Punjab Natl.Bank, Tata Comm, CESC

    July 27, 2013 Corporation Bank, Force Motors

    July 28, 2013

    July 29, 2013 UltraTech Cement, IDFC, Colgate, Godrej Consumer, Madras Cements, Subros, Vesuvius India

    July 30, 2013 NTPC, Dr Reddy's, Petronet LNG, Syndicate Bank, Ipca labs, Indoco Remedies

    July 31, 2013 Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, NHPC, JSW Steel , Dishman Pharma

    August 01, 2013 Idea Cellular, Mundra Port, Adani Power, GlaxoSmith Con

    August 02, 2013 Siemens

    August 03, 2013 Coal India, PTC India

    August 04, 2013

    August 05, 2013 Tata Chemicals, LMW, GIPCL

    August 06, 2013 Tata Power Co.

    August 07, 2013 Ranbaxy, Apollo Tyres

    August 08, 2013 Adani Enterp., Rural Elec.Corp.

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    July 24, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Jul A 50.40 --

    1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul A 48.60 --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Jun 476.00 484.00

    July 25, 2013 2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q A 0.30 --July 30, 2013 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jul 30 7.25 --

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jul 30 4.00 --

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jul 30 6.25 --

    7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jul 81.40 --

    July 31, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jul (12.00) --

    6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.80 --

    11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jul 31 0.25 --

    August 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.10 --

    2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 52.50 --

    4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 1 0.50 0.50

    5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 1 0.50 --

    August 2, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 195.00 --

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jul 7.60 --

    August 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (2.30) --

    August 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jul (3.10) --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    July 24, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    9.3

    7.7

    11.4

    9.5

    8.69.2

    9.9

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    (%)

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.5

    0.6

    3.4

    1.9

    (1.6)(4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Fe

    b-1

    3

    Mar-

    13

    Apr-

    13

    May-1

    3

    (%)

    8.0 8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    5.7

    4.8 4.7 4.9

    0.0

    1.02.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Fe

    b-1

    3

    Mar-

    13

    Apr-

    13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Fe

    b-1

    3

    Mar-

    13

    Apr-

    13

    May-1

    3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc

    t-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Fe

    b-1

    3

    Mar-

    13

    Apr-

    13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oct-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb-1

    3

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

    10/17

  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

    11/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 197 - 30,401 10,171 11,762 23.5 24.6 10.2 12.2 19.3 16.1 3.2 2.9 17.1 18.7 2.5 2.0

    India Cements Neutral 56 - 1,728 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 6.3 5.2 0.5 0.5 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 76 143 888 2,247 2,742 21.0 23.1 17.8 21.8 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 15.5 16.4 0.3 0.8

    Madras Cements Neutral 191 - 4,539 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 10.3 8.4 1.7 1.4 17.2 18.2 1.4 1.1

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,535 - 15,798 6,607 7,520 27.5 26.7 322.8 374.3 14.1 12.1 3.5 2.8 27.8 25.6 1.7 1.3

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,905 - 52,239 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 18.0 15.9 3.0 2.6 17.7 17.3 2.5 2.1

    ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 52 84 822 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 6.0 7.4 8.7 7.0 0.8 0.8 10.5 10.8 1.8 1.8

    Consolidated Co Neutral 9 - 160 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (3.0) (24.0) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5

    IRB Infra Buy 93 157 3,081 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 5.9 5.6 0.9 0.8 15.2 14.5 3.2 3.5

    ITNL Buy 144 230 2,789 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 4.8 4.5 0.7 0.6 14.9 14.2 2.5 2.5

    IVRCL Infra Buy 15 29 456 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 10.3 8.1 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 50 90 11,129 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 19.8 17.6 0.8 0.8 4.2 4.7 2.6 2.5

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 903 1,180 83,475 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 51.7 58.6 17.5 15.4 2.6 2.3 15.5 15.6 1.3 1.2

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 26 42 657 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 9.6 7.0 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.4

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 31 - 1,020 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 60.5 32.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 86 139 1,303 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 14.7 13.0 1.4 1.3 10.2 10.5 0.8 0.8

    Simplex Infra Buy 70 131 346 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 5.9 3.7 0.3 0.2 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

    Unity Infra Buy 24 41 176 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.2 2.1 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Accumulate 85 95 4,253 6,705 7,535 2.5 2.5 27.6 33.2 3.1 2.6 0.4 0.4 12.5 13.6 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 79 - 4,418 5,180 5,815 2.7 2.7 19.0 22.9 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 12.0 13.2 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,201 1,441 56,340 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 9.2 7.7 1.5 1.3 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 618 - 26,040 16,287 18,707 2.2 2.3 120.6 144.6 5.1 4.3 0.7 0.7 15.0 16.0 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 216 236 12,842 14,459 16,176 2.3 2.2 55.2 68.2 3.9 3.2 0.6 0.5 13.7 15.1 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra A ccumulate 49 54 3,268 4,291 4,724 3.0 3.0 12.1 12.9 4.1 3.8 0.6 0.6 16.2 15.3 - -

    Canara Bank Neutral 325 - 14,386 12,045 13,495 2.1 2.2 76.7 86.4 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.5 14.1 14.2 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 65 - 6,738 8,406 9,546 2.5 2.5 12.6 18.7 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.6 10.6 14.3 - -

    Corporation Bank Accumulate 332 360 5,069 5,554 6,156 2.0 2.0 94.9 104.9 3.5 3.2 0.5 0.4 14.3 14.2 - -

    Dena Bank Neutral 68 - 2,368 3,255 3,623 2.3 2.4 22.0 24.9 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.4 14.7 14.7 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 379 - 6,480 2,802 3,275 2.9 2.9 49.8 56.6 7.6 6.7 0.9 0.8 12.7 13.1 - -

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    July 24, 2013

  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

    12/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Neutral 827 - 128,526 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 22.0 18.5 4.6 4.1 30.1 30.7 - -

    HDFC Bank Accumulate 683 745 163,234 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 18.8 15.2 3.8 3.2 21.9 22.8 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 990 1,160 114,240 26,119 30,474 3.1 3.2 86.2 99.5 11.5 10.0 1.6 1.4 15.7 16.2 - -

    IDBI Bank Neutral 73 - 9,736 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 4.7 3.3 0.5 0.4 10.2 13.3 - -

    Indian Bank Accumulate 106 113 4,566 6,077 6,845 2.9 3.0 35.2 41.0 3.0 2.6 0.4 0.4 14.1 14.8 - -

    IOB Neutral 49 - 4,523 8,028 9,204 2.4 2.6 12.5 19.7 3.9 2.5 0.4 0.3 9.1 13.1 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 1,247 - 6,047 3,101 3,427 3.6 3.6 215.5 210.3 5.8 5.9 1.1 1.0 19.9 16.9 - -LIC Housing Finance Neutral 215 - 10,858 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 8.2 6.7 1.5 1.3 19.0 19.9 - -

    Oriental Bank Buy 176 203 5,132 6,790 7,676 2.6 2.7 55.7 62.3 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.4 12.8 12.9 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 662 718 23,398 20,914 23,879 3.3 3.4 152.4 176.2 4.3 3.8 0.7 0.6 16.2 16.5 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 23 - 3,076 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 6.2 5.5 1.0 0.9 16.2 16.2 - -

    St Bk of India Accumulate 1,861 2,077 127,306 66,417 76,734 3.0 3.0 227.4 284.8 8.2 6.5 1.2 1.0 15.4 17.1 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 113 121 6,799 7,125 8,188 2.6 2.6 27.4 27.9 4.1 4.1 0.6 0.6 16.2 14.6 - -

    UCO Bank Reduce 69 63 5,182 6,545 6,859 2.7 2.6 14.8 15.7 4.7 4.4 0.9 0.7 14.4 13.6 - -

    Union Bank Buy 155 178 9,235 11,101 12,543 2.6 2.6 39.3 47.4 3.9 3.3 0.6 0.5 14.1 15.2 - -

    United Bank Neutral 45 - 1,696 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 3.6 2.3 0.4 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

    Vijaya Bank Accumulate 45 47 2,220 2,714 3,046 1.9 2.0 9.2 10.8 4.9 4.1 0.5 0.5 10.7 11.5 - -

    Yes Bank Neutral 439 - 15,783 4,451 5,526 2.8 2.8 43.0 49.7 10.2 8.8 2.2 1.8 23.9 22.8 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,939 - 47,378 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 138.9 160.4 35.6 30.8 11.3 9.0 35.2 32.5 3.7 3.1

    Britannia Neutral 726 - 8,695 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 21.3 25.5 34.2 28.5 11.1 8.9 35.7 34.6 1.3 1.1

    Colgate Neutral 1,487 - 20,217 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 33.6 28.7 32.8 23.9 108.6 96.2 5.5 4.7

    Dabur India Neutral 171 - 29,790 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 31.8 27.2 12.4 9.6 41.5 40.1 4.1 3.5

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,123 - 21,546 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 41.9 34.5 13.0 10.5 34.1 33.7 5.5 4.6

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 909 - 30,936 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 36.2 30.6 7.8 6.5 24.9 24.2 4.1 3.5

    HUL Neutral 719 - 155,460 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 42.1 39.1 40.5 29.3 113.4 87.0 5.2 4.6

    ITC Neutral 376 - 296,988 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 33.3 28.2 11.0 8.9 36.1 34.9 8.3 7.1

    Marico Neutral 215 - 13,848 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 29.6 24.8 5.8 4.8 21.4 21.0 2.7 2.3

    Nestle* Neutral 5,661 - 54,585 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 44.4 36.7 22.2 16.1 57.7 50.7 5.8 4.9

    Tata Global Neutral 155 - 9,570 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 19.8 18.0 2.4 2.3 9.5 9.7 1.2 1.0

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    Stock Watch

    July 24, 2013

  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

    13/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Neutral 900 - 62,701 29,424 32,837 22.6 22.0 59.5 63.3 15.1 14.2 3.7 3.0 24.6 21.7 2.0 1.7

    Hexaware* Accumulate 110 123 3,277 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 9.1 8.5 2.2 1.9 25.4 23.5 1.3 1.1

    Infosys Neutral 2,901 - 166,577 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 16.9 15.3 3.5 3.0 20.4 19.3 2.9 2.5

    Infotech Enterprises Neutral 182 - 2,027 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.8 8.1 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Accumulate 134 144 2,582 2,614 2,923 17.2 16.8 13.2 14.4 10.2 9.3 1.8 1.5 18.5 16.7 0.9 0.8

    Mindtree Sell 959 135 3,983 8,590 9,324 20.9 20.6 10.9 11.7 88.2 82.2 20.8 16.6 23.7 20.3 0.1 (0.1)

    Mphasis& Buy 410 1,050 8,615 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 4.0 3.9 1.0 0.8 24.8 20.3 2.8 2.5NIIT Buy 17 400 282 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 14.3 14.2 (0.5) (0.5)

    Persistent Sell 541 30 2,163 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 125.9 100.5 13.0 12.0 10.3 12.0 1.7 1.5

    TCS Sell 1,750 595 342,475 1,505 1,677 25.9 26.2 53.6 59.7 32.6 29.3 5.8 4.9 17.7 16.7 227.2 203.7

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,179 1,305 27,383 77,480 88,131 29.4 29.1 86.0 95.1 13.7 12.4 4.2 3.5 30.9 27.8 0.1 -

    Wipro Buy 384 1,250 94,676 8,102 8,709 19.7 19.2 107.5 117.0 3.6 3.3 0.8 0.6 21.2 18.9 11.7 10.8

    Media

    D B Corp Accumulate 274 302 5,027 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 18.8 15.9 4.9 4.2 23.9 24.2 2.7 2.4

    HT Media Buy 95 117 2,233 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.4 10.3 1.4 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.5

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 91 107 3,019 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.2 11.7 2.9 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7

    PVR Neutral 331 - 1,312 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 19.2 15.4 1.9 1.8 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.2

    Sun TV Network Neutral 411 - 16,183 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 20.5 17.6 5.1 4.5 26.4 27.3 6.7 5.9

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 463 - 10,484 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 7.0 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

    Coal India Buy 298 345 188,417 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 10.5 9.7 2.9 2.5 37.6 36.2 1.8 1.6

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 12 18 397 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 9.6 4.7 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1

    GMDC Buy 103 155 3,263 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 4.8 4.1 1.1 0.9 25.1 23.8 1.2 0.8Hind. Zinc Buy 105 145 44,493 12,358 13,659 51.4 51.6 16.0 17.6 6.6 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.4 18.4 1.3 0.8

    Hindalco Neutral 105 - 20,132 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 7.9 7.0 0.6 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.6 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 581 - 14,032 47,613 48,385 17.4 18.8 81.8 109.6 7.1 5.3 0.8 0.7 11.1 13.4 0.6 0.5

    MOIL Buy 196 248 3,299 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.3 6.8 1.1 1.0 15.4 14.7 0.9 0.6

    Monnet Ispat Buy 118 193 749 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.5 2.7 0.3 0.3 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

    Nalco Neutral 30 - 7,757 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 11.8 11.5 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.5 0.5

    NMDC Buy 109 140 43,394 10,610 11,400 66.3 64.2 15.6 16.1 7.0 6.8 1.4 1.3 21.3 19.9 2.0 1.8

    SAIL Neutral 44 - 18,358 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 8.5 6.2 0.5 0.4 5.2 6.8 0.7 0.6

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    July 24, 2013

  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

    14/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    Sesa Goa Accumulate 148 166 12,841 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 4.9 5.0 0.7 0.6 14.3 12.5 4.2 3.5

    Sterlite Inds Buy 85 100 28,448 44,462 45,568 23.2 24.7 18.1 20.2 4.7 4.2 0.5 0.5 11.3 11.4 0.6 0.5

    Tata Steel Buy 235 378 22,775 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 7.6 4.9 0.7 0.6 9.6 13.4 0.5 0.5

    Sarda Buy 92 153 331 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.0 2.5 0.3 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5

    Prakash Industries Buy 32 40 426 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.2 3.1 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4

    Godawari Power andIspat

    Buy 75 102 244 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 1.9 1.6 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Accumulate 310 345 59,182 16,482 16,228 69.4 53.3 53.3 49.6 5.8 6.3 0.9 0.8 16.5 13.6 2.2 1.9

    GAIL Neutral 332 - 42,145 52,102 52,876 15.7 16.1 34.1 35.7 9.8 9.3 1.5 1.3 16.4 15.3 0.3 0.2

    ONGC Buy 312 387 266,760 170,063 198,461 36.3 38.3 34.7 41.9 9.0 7.4 1.6 1.4 18.3 19.5 1.3 1.0

    Reliance Industries Neutral 909 - 293,599 397,546 421,695 9.4 8.6 75.0 76.4 12.1 11.9 1.3 1.2 12.4 11.4 0.7 0.6

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 207 - 2,653 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 8.7 8.1 2.4 2.1 29.6 28.2 0.6 0.5

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 287 - 4,022 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.8 9.4 2.3 1.9 22.7 21.8 1.2 0.9

    Petronet LNG Buy 125 167 9,405 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 8.4 7.5 1.8 1.5 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 55 - 3,089 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.4 4.9 0.9 0.8 17.3 16.8 - -

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Neutral 159 - 3,002 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 14.9 11.5 4.7 3.5 35.0 34.7 1.8 1.5

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 176 271 5,112 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.2 8.5 1.6 1.4 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0

    Aventis* Neutral 2,431 - 5,600 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 26.3 24.5 3.7 3.7 15.7 14.8 3.0 2.4

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 749 929 15,333 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 19.6 16.1 4.2 3.5 23.5 23.5 2.4 2.0

    Cipla Buy 409 477 32,799 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 19.5 17.2 3.1 2.7 17.2 16.8 3.3 2.7

    Dr Reddy's Accumulate 2,360 2,535 40,123 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 21.0 18.6 4.5 3.7 23.5 21.8 3.1 2.7

    Dishman Pharma Buy 59 168 473 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 3.9 3.5 0.4 0.4 11.0 11.2 1.0 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,483 - 21,032 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 32.4 29.8 9.7 8.8 31.1 31.0 6.5 5.8

    Indoco Remedies Accumulate 70 78 646 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 11.5 9.0 1.4 1.3 12.9 14.7 1.1 0.9

    Ipca labs Neutral 637 - 8,036 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 17.7 14.4 4.1 3.3 26.0 25.4 2.6 2.2

    Lupin Neutral 882 - 39,486 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 25.3 21.1 5.9 4.7 26.2 24.8 3.4 2.8

    Ranbaxy* Buy 322 384 13,616 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 18.4 14.3 3.0 2.6 17.0 19.1 1.1 1.0

    Sun Pharma Neutral 1,107 - 114,472 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 33.6 27.8 6.8 5.6 22.0 22.0 7.9 6.6

    Power

    GIPCL Buy 63 78 957 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.6 4.3 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.5

    NTPC Accumulate 143 163 118,075 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 10.7 9.9 1.3 1.2 12.8 12.7 2.2 2.1

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    July 24, 2013

  • 7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 24-07-2013

    15/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 175 236 31,066 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 30.6 25.9 1.1 1.1 3.7 4.1 5.8 4.9

    MLIFE Neutral 457 - 1,867 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 11.8 10.5 1.3 1.2 11.2 11.4 2.7 2.4

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 330 - 131,954 85,489 94,229 31.9 31.9 10.2 14.6 32.3 22.6 2.3 2.1 7.2 9.4 2.2 1.9

    Idea Cellular Neutral 148 - 49,137 25,640 28,459 26.9 27.2 4.0 4.9 37.0 30.0 3.1 2.8 8.4 9.4 2.3 2.0

    Rcom Neutral 137 - 28,318 22,751 24,628 30.9 31.3 3.4 5.3 40.0 26.1 0.8 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.8 2.5

    OthersAbbott India* Accumulate 1,451 1,659 3,083 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.4 17.5 4.1 3.5 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 176 237 1,751 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 16.0 8.9 2.2 1.8 13.5 20.3 0.5 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 513 613 650 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 12.1 10.1 2.9 2.3 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

    Cravatex Buy 249 459 64 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 9.2 6.5 1.4 1.2 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4

    Finolex Cables Accumulate 64 68 980 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 6.4 5.7 0.9 0.8 14.3 13.8 0.3 0.3

    Force Motors Buy 249 437 325 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 8.9 5.7 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Accumulate 313 345 722 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.7 8.4 1.8 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3

    Hitachi Buy 121 177 328 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 8.8 6.8 1.2 1.1 15.0 16.7 0.3 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,489 - 2,200 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 22.1 18.8 2.8 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9

    IFB Agro Buy 136 198 122 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 4.6 3.4 0.7 0.6 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

    ITD Cementation Buy 158 234 182 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.3 5.9 0.4 0.4 5.4 7.1 0.5 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 178 199 2,959 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 32.3 19.7 3.7 3.3 12.1 17.7 2.8 2.2

    MRF Neutral 14,392 - 6,104 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 8.0 8.0 1.7 1.4 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

    Page Industries Accumulate 4,351 4,611 4,853 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 34.9 28.3 17.3 12.7 56.3 51.8 4.7 3.9

    Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 705 791 846 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 15.4 11.6 3.2 2.6 23.0 24.6 0.9 0.8

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 235 343 220 1,158 1,322 11.9 11.9 72.9 85.7 3.2 2.8 0.6 0.5 19.9 19.6 0.4 0.4Styrolution ABS India* Buy 410 617 721 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 10.8 9.3 1.5 1.3 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 58 108 366 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.4 6.4 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 270 371 416 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.2 3.9 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

    TTK Healthcare Buy 552 686 428 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 22.7 16.6 3.7 3.2 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.7

    Tree House Neutral 292 - 1,051 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 23.6 18.7 2.8 2.5 11.8 13.1 7.1 5.4

    TVS Srichakra Buy 173 230 132 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 24.5 38.3 7.1 4.5 0.8 0.7 10.9 15.9 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,711 - 39,403 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 64.4 40.1 4.5 4.1 9.1 10.7 3.5 3.1

    Vesuvius India* Buy 375 439 760 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.5 10.3 1.9 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.1 0.9

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    HSIL Buy 88 117 578 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 7.1 5.3 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 23, 2013

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    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Market OutlookJuly 24, 2013