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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    www.angelbroking.com

    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    Dealers DiaryThe Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive tracking flat opening in

    SGX Nifty and of major Asian markets.

    The US markets moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day onMonday, partly offsetting the steep losses that were posted last week. The upward

    move on the day reflected strong gains by technology and resource stocks. The

    major averages all ended the day in positive territory, although the Dow

    underperformed its counterparts. The European markets pared their gains in late

    trade Monday, but still largely finished to the upside. The markets were positive in

    early trade, on the news that Italy's parliament re-elected President Giorgio

    Napolitano for a second term on Saturday.

    Meanwhile, Indian markets ended at a one month high. Continued expectations of

    a cut in key interest rates by the RBI helped to keep investor sentiments buoyant on

    Monday. With inflationary pressures easing and the rupee remaining more or lessstable, most analysts expect the RBI to cut interest rates next week for a third time

    this year.

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 19,122 / 5,823 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 19,253 19,337 / 5,856 5,878 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    19,122 / 5,823 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    19,038 18,906 / 5,801 5,768 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 18,906 19,038 19,122 19,253 19,337

    NIFTY 5,768 5,801 5,823 5,856 5,878

    News Analysis

    CCI clears 25 oil & gas blocks and 13 power projects CCEA says no to price pooling of coal Strike at MM's Igatpuri plant ends Result Review: Cairn India, Ultratech, MindTree, Persistent, Mahindra

    Lifespace, Tata Sponge Iron

    Result Preview: HDFC BankRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (April 18, 2013)

    ` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 3,677 2,644 1,033 1,629 56,380

    MFs 358 468 (109) (435) (7,602)

    FII Derivatives (April 22, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 6,037 4,819 1,218 11,530

    Stock Futures 8,965 9,419 (454) 26,412

    Gainers / Losers

    Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Reliance Comm 98 13.5 Wipro 339 (8.0)HDIL 56 12.0 Glaxosmithkl Cons 3,790 (2.8)

    Unitech 30 8.7 Ultratech Cem 1,879 (2.5)

    Engineers India 188 8.5 Strides Arco 817 (2.5)

    Jet Air India 550 7.4 Infosys 2,244 (2.2)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.8 153 19,170

    Nifty 0.9 51 5,834

    MID CAP 1.4 89 6,307

    SMALL CAP 0.9 54 6,030

    BSE HC 0.2 17 8,464

    BSE PSU 1.3 86 6,845

    BANKEX 2.4 338 14,395

    AUTO 0.3 34 10,454

    METAL 2.0 172 8,658

    OIL & GAS 0.2 16 8,666

    BSE IT (2.4) (140) 5,760

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.1 20 14,567NASDAQ 0.9 27 3,234

    FTSE (0.1) (6) 6,281

    Nikkei 1.9 252 13,568

    Hang Seng 0.1 31 22,044

    Straits Times 0.5 15 3,309

    Shanghai Com (0.1) (2) 2,242

    Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (1.0) (0.4) $41.3

    WIT (3.9) (0.3) $7.8IBN 0.3 0.2 $44.8

    HDB 1.8 0.7 $41.5

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,376 835

    Declines 1,014 495

    Unchanged 135 73

    Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,180

    NSE 11,539

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    CCI clears 25 oil & gas blocks and 13 power projects

    The Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) has granted clearances to 25 oil &

    gas blocks worth `24,900cr. This is positive for companies such as Reliance

    Industries, ONGC and Cairn India as it will enable them to expedite exploration

    projects. Some of these blocks were stuck up as the Defence ministry had imposedstringent conditions that disallowed companies to locate any pipelines or structures

    on sea surface for exploration and production activities. We await further clarity on

    this. Until then, we maintain our estimates for our Oil & Gas coverage universe.

    CCI has also approved 13 power projects, entailing investments worth`33,000cr

    which include 10 transmission, one hydro and two thermal projects. These projects

    were stalled as they were awaiting different types of approvals and clearances.

    CCEA says no to price pooling of coal

    The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) denied to the proposal of

    price pooling of imported and domestic coal which would have made the fuel

    more affordable to new power plants. Owing to sharp opposition to the scheme by

    older power plants and domestic coal producers, CCEA in its meeting denied to

    this proposal. We had not factored in Price pooling for Coal India and hence

    maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `345.

    Strike at MM's Igatpuri plant ends

    Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) has announced that the 14 day long tool down

    strike at its Igatpuri plant has been called off and the workers at the plant have

    resumed normal work beginning April 22, 2013. The workers at the Igatpuri plant

    of the company were on a tool down strike since April 9, 2013 to protest the

    suspension of two workers by the company on the disciplinary grounds. As a part

    of the settlement process, the company gave into the Union's demand of

    reinstatement of the suspended workers. Further, the management also agreed to

    withdraw the charge sheet proceedings against the suspended workers.

    The Igatpuri plant of MM manufactures engines for the utility vehicles and has a

    capacity to manufacture ~1,100 units/ day. As per media reports, MM has

    suffered production loss of ~8,000 units due to the strike. Nevertheless, we do not

    see a major impact of the strike on company's operations considering that MM

    had 3-4 weeks of inventory of utility vehicle and another 3-4 weeks inventory of

    engines at the plant before the strike. We maintain our positive view on MM.Currently we have an Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP based targetprice of `1,006.

    Result Review

    Cairn India (CMP:`293, TP:`340, Upside: 16%)

    Cairn India 4QFY2013 results which were below our expectations on the

    profitability front whereas top line was in line with our expectations. The companys

    top line increased 19.5% yoy to`4,363cr (in line with our expectation of`4,393cr)

    due to higher volumes and higher rupee realizations. The companys gross

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    production averaged 202,014boepd (+12.0% yoy) during the quarter. Although

    gross crude oil realization decreased by 9.1% yoy to US$100.6/bbl, INR

    depreciation against the USD offset this impact. EBITDA grew by 9.3% yoy to

    `3,258cr; however, EBITDA margin contracted by 698bp yoy to 74.7%. The

    company recorded an exceptional forex loss of`3cr on account of forex fluctuation

    during 4QFY2013. Excluding this exceptional loss, adjusted net profit grew by just6.8% yoy to`2,566cr (below our estimate of`2,819cr). Reported net profit grew

    by 17.3% yoy to`2,564cr. We maintain our Buy ratingon the stock with a targetprice of `340.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 17,071 72.4 10,593 55.5 17.1 5.3 0.8 2.8 2.0

    FY2015E 17,034 69.3 9,863 51.7 14.0 5.7 0.8 2.3 1.6

    Ultratech (CMP:`1,879/TP:-/Upside:-)

    Ultratechs 4QFY2013 stand-alone topline was below estimates at `5,389cr on

    account of both lower thanestimated volumes and realization. The companys grey

    cement volumes (incl. clinker) remained flat yoy at 11.13mn tonnes. White cement

    volumes fell by 4.3% yoy to 0.16mn tonnes. Blended realizations for the quarter

    stood at `4,727/tonne, higher by 1% on a yoy basis. However, the companys

    operating costs/tonne was below estimates resulting in a superior OPM of 23.4%

    vs. estimated 21.5%. Interest expenses too was lower by 18.4% yoy at `48cr. Net

    Profit fell by 16.3% yoy to`726cr and was in-line with estimates. Meanwhile there

    are media reports that Ultratrech is in final-stage talks to buy Jaypee Associates

    4.8mtpa cement plants in Gujarat for`4,100cr. The news has not been confirmedby management of both the companies. We maintain our neutral view on thestock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)FY2014E 22,354 23.2 2,837 103.5 17.5 18.2 3.0 10.5 176

    FY2015E 25,329 23.5 3,367 122.8 17.9 15.3 2.6 9.0

    Note: Computed on TTM basis

    MindTree(CMP:`849/ TP: Under review)MindTree reported broadly in-line set of results on the revenue front but

    disappointed on the bottom-line font. MindTree reported USD revenue growth of

    2.8% qoq to US$113mn, on the back of 3.7% qoq volume growth. Blended

    realization declined by 1.4% qoq. In INR terms, revenue came in at `612cr, up

    3.8% qoq. During the quarter, MindTrees EBITDA and EBIT margins declined by

    141bp and 138bp qoq to 19.0% and 16.5%, respectively. This was due to factors

    such as: 1) increase in SG&A expenses, 2) increase in employee costs due to

    freshers getting added into the system and 3) decline in utilization level. The PAT

    came in at`79cr, down 20% qoq, largely led by lower than expected operational

    performance.

    MindTrees Management indicated that it remains hopeful of FY2014 turning out

    to be a better revenue growth year as compared to FY2013 because of pick up in

    client spending (backed by a positive survey of its top clients) as well as a result of

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    companys greater concentration on mining its focus clients. Even within the PES

    segment, the company cited better prospects in FY2014 as against in FY2013. We

    continue to be positive on the stock owing to its diversified revenue portfolio and

    past performance. The target price is currently under review.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 2,587 19.4 362 87.2 21.8 9.7 2.1 5.1 1.0

    FY2015E 2,823 19.4 384 92.6 18.8 9.2 1.7 4.2 0.8

    Persistent(CMP:`545 / TP: Under review)Persistent Systems (Persistent) reported its 4QFY2013 results which were largely

    inline with the expectations. The dollar revenues came in at US$62.1mn, up 2.2%

    qoq, led by 3.1% qoq revenue growth from IT services revenue which came in at

    US$51.2mn. IP led revenues declined by 1.7% qoq to US$11mn. The companys

    EBITDA margin grew slightly by 12bp qoq to 24.9% with headwinds of rupee

    appreciation and higher G&A expenses and tailwinds of decline in doubtful debt

    provisions and flat employee costs even with number of employees going up. PAT

    stood at `52cr, up 5% qoq aided by forex gain of `4.1cr as against `1.8cr in

    3QFY2013. The management remains confident of FY2014 with deal pipeline

    being strong and remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its

    portfolio. The stock is currently under review.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,433 24.7 222 55.5 18.4 9.8 1.8 4.6 1.1

    FY2015E 1,591 24.6 241 60.2 16.8 9.1 1.5 3.7 0.9

    MLIFE (CMP:`378/ TP: under review / Upside :-)

    For 4QFY2013, Mahindra Lifespaces Developers (MLIFE) reported a weak set of

    numbers both on revenue and profitability front. MLIFEs standalone revenue for

    the quarter came in at `102cr, i.e a decline of 27% yoy which was below

    consensus estimate of `120cr. Standalone EBITDA decreased by 46.1% yoy to

    `17cr, owing to lower-than-expected revenue recognition. PAT for the quarterdecreased by 27.7% yoy to `23cr. On a consolidated level, MLIFE reported a

    revenue of`368r and PAT of`82cr, suggesting a profit for its subsidiaries at net

    level. During the quarter, the company has acquired two land parcels one each in

    Bangalore and Mumbai region. Both the land parcel put together has a

    development potential of 1 mn sqft. We keep our rating and target price on thestock under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 888 30.6 169 41.4 11.8 9.1 1.1 6.9 2.1

    FY2015E 1,002 30.6 192 47.1 12.2 8.0 1.0 6.2 1.9

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    Tata Sponge Iron (CMP:`295 / TP:`358/ Upside: 21.5%)

    For 4QFY2013, TSIL reported a topline of`211cr, 7.1% higher than our estimate

    of `197cr. However, the results were disappointing on the EBITDA margin front

    which contracted by 502bp yoy to 8.8% as compared to 13.9% during 4QFY2012.

    Contraction in EBITDA margin was primarily due to higher raw material cost andemployee expenses during the quarter. Consequently, net profit declined by 36%

    yoy during the quarter to`9cr.

    For the full year FY2013, revenue grew by 25.5% yoy to `796 on account of better

    realization of sponge iron and resumption volumes of sponge iron sales which

    were impacted during FY2012 due to iron ore supply issues; while increased raw

    material cost and employee expenses led to contraction of EBITDA margin by

    273bp for FY2013. Net profit for FY2013 stood at`85cr as compared to`76cr in

    FY2012. As we rollover to FY2015, due to attractive valuations, we maintain ourBuy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `358 based on a targetP/B of 0.7x for FY2015E.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 842 15.1 90 58.5 31.1 5.0 0.6 0.8 0.1

    FY2015E 879 15.2 94 61.3 28.5 4.8 0.6 0.3 0.0

    Result Preview

    HDFC Bank (CMP:`699 / TP: - / Upside: -)

    HDFC Bank is expected to announce healthy set of results for 4QFY2013. The NII

    is expected to increase by 21.0% yoy to `4,099cr, while non-interest income is

    expected to come in at`1,903cr, achieving a strong growth of 27.6% yoy. Despite

    healthy growth of 23.0% yoy in operating Income, Operating profit is expected to

    grow strongly by 30.7% yoy, due to a moderate growth of 15.4% yoy in operating

    expenses. Provisioning is expected to be `319cr compared to `298cr in

    4QFY2012. Consequently the PAT is expected to increase by 30.2% yoy to

    `1,892cr. The stock is currently trading at a valuation of 4.0x P/ABV FY2014E and

    3.3x P/ABV FY2015E. In our view, the stock factors in most of the positives, andhence, we remain Neutral on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 26,559 4.4 8,326 35.5 177.0 1.8 21.7 19.7 4.0

    FY2015E 32,720 4.4 9,970 42.5 209.9 1.8 22.0 16.5 3.3

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    HDFC Bank (23/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,883 1,453 30 1,859 1

    Axis Bank (24/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,429 1,277 12 1,347 6

    Hindustan Zinc (25/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 3,577 3,094 16 3,140 14

    EBITDA 1,824 1,659 10 1,494 22

    EBITDA margin (%) 51.0 53.6 47.6

    Net profit 1,817 1,413 29 1,613 13

    IDBI Bank (25/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 567 771 (26) 417 36

    Idea Consolidated (25/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,822 5,273 10 5,572 4

    EBITDA 1,549 1,155 34 1,473 5

    EBITDA margin (%) 26.6 21.9 26.4

    Net profit 270 190 42 229 18

    Jindal Steel & Power Consolidated (25/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,328 5,465 -3 4,683 14

    EBITDA 2,962 1,914 55 1,790 66

    EBITDA margin (%) 55.6 35.0 38.2

    Net profit 975 1,171 (17) 878 11

    United Phosphorous Consolidated (25/04/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,413 2,119 14 2,255 7

    EBITDA 434 387 12 404 7

    EBITDA margin (%) 18.0 18.2 17.9

    Net profit 213 211 1 177 20

    Economic and Political News

    Govt. likely to convene all-party meet on Food Security Bill Govt. not considering amending FDI policy in Defence sector

    Encourage retail participation in disinvestment: Par. panel IKEA will not be allowed to sell food items in India: Govt. Par. panel for more tax benefits on savings, review of RGESS

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013

    Corporate News

    Maran stake rises to 22.05% in SpiceJet ABB to acquire US based Power-One for over USD 1bn Mahindra Reva plans to start export to Europe next year

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    April 23, 2013 HDFC Bank, Indiabulls Fin.

    April 24, 2013 Axis Bank

    April 25, 2013Hind. Zinc, Jindal Steel, Idea Cellular, IDBI Bank, United Phosphorus, Rallis, FAG Bearings, Infotech Enterprises,Vesuvius India, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd

    April 26, 2013 ICICI Bank, Hero Motocorp, Maruti, Siemens, LIC Housing Fin., Vijaya Bank, GoodyearApril 27, 2013 Federal Bank

    April 28, 2013

    April 29, 2013 Bosch India, Exide Industries, IOB, Areva, Hexaware

    April 30, 2013 Dabur India, Godrej Consumer, Petronet LNG, Aventis, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Taj GVK

    May 01, 2013 IDFC, GlaxoSmith Con

    May 02, 2013 Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mah. Bank, Andhra Bank, Alembic Pharma

    May 03, 2013 Ambuja Cements, Titan Inds.

    May 04, 2013 Grasim Inds

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    April 23, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Apr A 50.90 --

    1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Apr A 49.00 --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Mar 411.00 420.00

    April 25, 2013 2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q A 0.20 --

    April 26, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q A 0.40 3.00

    April 30, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Apr 13.00 --

    7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Apr 59.70 --

    May 1, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Apr 48.30 --

    6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Apr 50.90 --

    11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % May 1 0.25 --

    May 2, 2013 5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % May 2 0.75 --

    May 3, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Apr 88.00 --

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Apr 7.60 --

    11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % May 3 7.50 7.25

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % May 3 4.00 4.00

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % May 3 6.50 8.25

    May 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Apr 10.00 --

    May 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Apr 2.10 --2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar (2.20) --

    4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May 9 0.50 0.50

    May 10, 2013 11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Mar 0.60 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    April 23, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    5.7

    9.0

    7.5

    11.2

    8.5

    7.68.2

    9.2

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.3 5.5 5.34.5

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    (%)

    (2.8)

    (1.3)

    2.5

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0)(0.5)

    2.4

    0.6

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    Ma-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oct-12

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    (%)

    7.5 7.6 7.6 7.58.0 8.1

    7.3 7.2 7.36.6 6.8

    6.0

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    Feb

    -12

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (30.0)

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    30.0

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    7.50

    6.50

    4.003.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Apr-12

    Ma-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 126 - 2,448 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 18.0 15.5 3.8 3.3 22.6 22.5 1.8 1.5

    United Phosphorus Buy 129 170 5,730 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.6 7.6 1.3 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 259 326 4,421 3,418 3,892 15.1 14.9 19.8 21.7 13.1 11.9 3.2 2.6 27.1 23.7 1.3 1.1

    Apollo Tyres Accumulate 94 103 4,723 14,401 15,841 11.4 11.5 13.6 15.9 6.9 5.9 1.2 1.0 18.4 18.2 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 23 27 6,000 13,833 16,192 9.6 9.7 2.0 2.7 11.5 8.5 1.9 1.7 12.1 15.2 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 303 - 458 934 1,103 10.2 10.7 24.5 34.3 12.4 8.8 1.6 1.4 13.2 16.9 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,762 2,014 50,985 22,552 25,498 18.6 18.6 117.9 134.3 15.0 13.1 5.4 4.3 40.2 36.6 1.8 1.5

    Bharat Forge Neutral 230 - 5,343 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.8 13.3 2.1 1.9 13.6 14.7 1.0 0.9

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,870 - 27,849 9,717 11,092 16.2 17.0 354.7 423.3 25.0 21.0 4.3 3.7 17.2 17.5 2.5 2.2

    CEAT Buy 100 155 341 5,403 6,057 8.3 8.3 36.4 41.3 2.7 2.4 0.4 0.4 15.3 16.6 0.2 0.2

    Exide Industries Accumulate 134 146 11,373 7,026 8,027 14.2 14.2 7.7 8.9 17.3 15.1 2.9 2.5 18.0 17.9 1.3 1.1

    FAG Bearings* Accumulate 1,372 1,569 2,279 1,619 1,879 16.0 16.6 108.6 130.7 12.6 10.5 2.2 1.8 18.8 19.1 1.2 1.0

    Hero Motocorp Buy 1,528 1,824 30,516 25,351 28,047 13.9 13.8 104.1 140.3 14.7 10.9 5.0 3.9 36.7 40.4 1.0 0.8

    JK Tyre Buy 107 154 440 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 892 1,006 54,749 44,550 50,260 11.4 11.7 59.6 68.3 15.0 13.1 3.1 2.6 22.3 21.6 1.0 0.8

    Maruti Neutral 1,540 - 44,485 48,078 55,133 9.1 9.3 87.4 102.9 17.6 15.0 2.3 2.1 14.1 14.6 0.8 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Buy 191 222 11,214 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 15.3 12.9 3.8 3.0 27.5 25.8 0.5 0.5

    Subros Accumulate 26 30 158 1,479 1,685 10.0 9.9 5.5 7.5 4.8 3.5 0.5 0.5 11.1 13.7 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Accumulate 285 324 76,048 206,341 227,695 12.8 13.5 32.3 39.0 8.9 7.3 1.9 1.5 23.1 23.2 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Accumulate 36 40 1,727 7,714 8,532 6.1 6.3 4.8 5.8 7.6 6.3 1.2 1.0 16.5 17.5 0.2 0.1

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Reduce 495 452 10,485 8,073 9,052 5.5 7.2 11.3 17.4 43.9 28.5 3.8 3.5 8.9 12.8 1.3 1.1BGR Energy Neutral 190 - 1,374 4,114 4,886 11.4 10.7 24.9 28.0 7.6 6.8 1.0 0.9 25.2 22.6 0.6 0.6

    BHEL Neutral 191 - 46,835 43,757 40,934 17.3 16.9 20.9 19.0 9.2 10.1 2.0 1.8 23.7 18.8 0.9 0.9

    Blue Star Buy 163 230 1,470 2,896 3,087 5.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 17.6 13.9 2.9 2.5 17.6 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Buy 95 117 6,097 13,790 15,095 6.4 7.4 6.9 9.4 13.8 10.2 1.6 1.4 11.7 14.5 0.5 0.4

    Jyoti Structures Accumulate 30 34 245 3,074 3,355 9.0 8.8 8.7 10.2 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.3 10.4 11.1 0.3 0.2

    KEC International Buy 52 67 1,332 7,750 8,631 6.8 7.0 7.7 9.2 6.7 5.6 1.0 0.9 20.8 20.8 0.3 0.3

    Thermax Neutral 578 - 6,881 5,931 6,592 9.6 9.7 31.0 34.3 18.6 16.8 3.2 2.8 18.6 17.9 1.0 0.9

    Cement

    ACC Accumulate 1,214 1,361 22,799 12,182 13,435 21.0 22.4 78.7 98.8 15.4 12.3 2.8 2.5 19.0 21.4 1.6 1.4

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    April 23, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 23.04.13

    11/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 188 - 28,988 10,681 11,991 25.0 25.5 10.8 12.8 17.3 14.7 3.0 2.7 18.1 19.4 2.2 1.9

    India Cements Neutral 83 - 2,557 4,777 5,276 17.3 17.1 8.8 10.9 9.5 7.7 0.7 0.7 7.5 8.8 0.9 0.8

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 92 143 1,087 2,313 2,728 19.8 20.7 16.6 23.1 5.6 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.6 16.5 1.0 0.8

    Madras Cements Neutral 232 - 5,515 4,293 4,855 27.4 28.6 21.8 28.2 10.7 8.2 1.9 1.6 19.6 21.3 1.8 1.4

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,356 - 15,176 6,706 7,751 28.7 27.7 338.2 375.5 12.9 11.6 3.3 2.6 28.5 25.2 1.6 1.2

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,879 - 51,512 22,456 25,445 23.2 23.5 103.5 122.8 18.2 15.3 3.0 2.6 17.5 17.9 2.4 2.1

    ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 194 272 1,021 2,013 2,293 22.5 22.5 26.0 24.4 7.5 8.0 0.8 0.8 11.7 9.9 2.1 1.9

    Consolidated Co Neutral 12 - 216 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 17.2 5.8 0.4 0.4 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3

    IRB Infra Buy 118 167 3,932 4,152 4,624 44.4 45.0 17.0 17.2 7.0 6.9 1.1 0.9 16.2 14.6 3.4 3.4

    ITNL Buy 184 230 3,568 7,177 7,772 27.4 28.9 29.4 32.4 6.2 5.7 1.0 0.8 16.5 15.9 2.7 2.7

    IVRCL Infra Buy 21 35 640 6,287 6,836 8.5 8.5 2.3 3.0 8.9 6.9 0.3 0.3 3.4 4.2 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 77 95 17,087 14,914 15,699 26.2 26.4 4.2 4.4 18.4 17.7 1.2 1.1 6.8 6.6 2.5 2.4

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,535 1,795 94,453 69,586 79,247 11.2 11.1 75.1 84.9 20.4 18.1 2.9 2.6 15.2 15.0 1.5 1.4

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 34 45 860 6,576 7,264 8.2 8.3 4.1 4.8 8.2 7.0 0.3 0.3 4.2 4.7 0.5 0.5

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 53 - 1,767 1,338 1,542 10.2 10.2 3.0 4.8 18.0 11.2 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.2 5.6 5.3

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 114 153 1,722 2,511 2,736 10.6 10.6 7.3 7.8 15.7 14.6 2.0 1.8 13.3 12.7 0.9 0.8

    Simplex Infra Buy 124 164 613 6,824 7,563 9.2 9.4 18.0 23.4 6.9 5.3 0.5 0.4 6.9 8.3 0.5 0.4

    Unity Infra Buy 33 45 244 2,455 2,734 13.4 13.0 14.6 14.9 2.3 2.2 0.3 0.2 12.3 11.3 0.5 0.5

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Accumulate 141 155 7,030 7,137 7,907 2.9 2.8 32.3 36.0 4.4 3.9 0.6 0.5 14.2 14.2 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 95 - 5,316 5,285 5,937 3.0 2.9 21.2 23.4 4.5 4.1 0.7 0.6 13.4 13.4 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,440 1,698 67,404 18,901 22,625 3.3 3.3 128.5 150.5 11.2 9.6 1.8 1.6 17.0 17.5 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 699 815 29,427 16,318 18,682 2.4 2.4 121.4 144.6 5.8 4.8 0.8 0.7 15.2 16.0 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 342 360 20,377 14,284 16,295 2.3 2.3 55.9 68.4 6.1 5.0 0.9 0.8 13.9 15.2 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 50 56 3,307 4,289 4,670 2.9 2.8 11.6 13.1 4.3 3.8 0.6 0.6 15.7 15.6 - -

    Canara Bank Neutral 446 - 19,773 11,673 13,208 2.3 2.3 74.8 85.8 6.0 5.2 0.8 0.7 13.7 14.1 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 71 - 7,364 8,079 9,086 2.6 2.6 14.9 18.0 4.7 3.9 0.7 0.6 12.2 13.3 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 378 453 5,776 5,397 5,973 2.2 2.2 96.3 105.9 3.9 3.6 0.6 0.5 14.6 14.4 - -

    Dena Bank Accumulate 96 101 3,362 3,334 3,700 2.7 2.7 23.6 26.5 4.1 3.6 0.6 0.5 15.5 15.3 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 464 - 7,937 2,916 3,389 3.3 3.3 50.1 59.4 9.3 7.8 1.1 1.0 12.8 13.7 - -

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    April 23, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 23.04.13

    12/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Neutral 835 - 129,181 8,928 10,684 3.7 3.7 38.4 45.3 21.8 18.4 4.7 4.2 32.5 32.4 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 699 - 166,432 26,559 32,720 4.4 4.4 35.5 42.5 19.7 16.5 4.0 3.3 21.7 22.0 - -

    ICICI Bank Accumulate 1,148 1,306 132,426 26,371 31,618 3.0 3.0 84.1 96.7 13.7 11.9 1.8 1.7 15.8 16.5 - -

    IDBI Bank Accumulate 88 96 11,688 9,309 10,541 2.1 2.2 20.1 23.4 4.4 3.8 0.5 0.5 12.8 13.5 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 168 200 7,237 6,276 6,968 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.3 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.6 15.2 14.9 - -

    IOB Buy 67 78 6,215 8,205 9,048 2.6 2.5 16.4 20.3 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.4 11.6 13.1 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 1,258 1,323 6,097 3,032 3,118 3.8 3.5 218.1 200.9 5.8 6.3 1.1 1.0 19.9 16.0 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 235 253 11,860 2,127 2,498 2.2 2.2 25.1 28.2 9.4 8.3 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.9 - -

    Oriental Bank Neutral 284 - 8,298 6,791 7,478 2.7 2.7 56.7 63.4 5.0 4.5 0.6 0.6 12.9 13.1 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 782 889 27,645 21,161 24,166 3.3 3.3 153.4 176.4 5.1 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.1 16.3 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 3,206 1,826 2,081 3.0 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.9 5.3 1.0 0.9 17.6 17.1 - -

    St Bk of India Accumulate 2,324 2,567 158,966 67,091 76,746 3.2 3.1 241.2 280.4 9.6 8.3 1.5 1.3 16.5 17.0 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 120 130 7,196 7,340 8,212 2.9 2.8 26.4 28.7 4.5 4.2 0.7 0.6 15.8 15.2 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 66 - 4,971 6,126 6,665 2.6 2.5 12.2 14.4 5.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 11.8 12.6 - -

    Union Bank Accumulate 241 264 14,353 11,226 12,769 2.7 2.7 41.0 47.8 5.9 5.0 0.8 0.7 14.8 15.4 - -

    United Bank Accumulate 60 68 2,261 3,597 4,008 2.6 2.7 16.0 20.8 3.8 2.9 0.5 0.4 12.5 14.7 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 53 - 2,607 2,600 2,946 2.0 2.1 9.7 11.0 5.4 4.8 0.6 0.6 11.4 11.7 - -

    Yes Bank Neutral 495 - 17,736 4,260 5,344 3.0 3.0 42.1 50.2 11.8 9.9 2.5 2.1 23.3 22.9 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,644 - 44,543 13,319 15,805 15.7 15.7 143.8 170.2 32.3 27.3 10.1 8.0 35.1 32.7 3.3 2.7

    Britannia Neutral 564 - 6,736 6,417 7,446 5.1 5.5 20.3 25.2 27.8 22.4 9.5 7.5 37.4 37.3 1.0 0.8

    Colgate Neutral 1,398 - 19,010 3,588 4,130 21.1 21.6 44.7 51.9 31.2 27.0 28.1 21.0 100.0 89.1 5.1 4.4

    Dabur India Neutral 144 - 25,107 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 26.6 22.8 10.4 8.1 43.9 39.9 3.5 3.0

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,790 - 15,941 3,617 4,260 16.1 16.4 120.6 146.4 31.4 25.9 9.7 7.8 33.8 33.4 4.1 3.4

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 822 - 27,973 7,801 9,017 17.0 17.0 26.5 31.9 31.0 25.8 7.0 5.7 26.5 25.9 3.7 3.1

    HUL Neutral 483 - 104,339 28,974 32,970 13.5 13.5 17.0 18.1 28.5 26.7 18.1 13.6 74.3 58.3 3.4 2.9

    ITC Neutral 317 - 250,409 33,506 39,067 36.8 37.0 11.1 13.0 28.6 24.4 9.3 7.6 35.5 34.1 7.1 6.1

    Marico Neutral 214 - 13,821 5,352 6,204 14.0 14.0 7.9 9.8 27.1 21.9 5.6 4.5 22.8 22.9 2.6 2.1

    Nestle* Neutral 4,683 - 45,153 9,739 11,307 21.5 22.2 131.6 159.9 35.6 29.3 18.0 12.9 58.8 69.5 4.5 3.9

    Tata Global Neutral 141 - 8,692 7,998 8,798 9.7 9.8 7.9 8.7 17.8 16.2 2.2 2.1 9.6 9.8 1.0 0.9

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    April 23, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 23.04.13

    13/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Buy 721 876 50,173 28,540 32,098 20.8 19.5 53.3 58.4 13.5 12.4 3.1 2.6 23.0 21.1 1.6 1.4

    Hexaware* Buy 85 105 2,536 2,137 2,350 18.8 19.2 10.4 11.7 8.2 7.3 1.8 1.6 22.6 22.1 1.0 0.9

    Infosys Accumulate 2,244 2,465 128,884 43,338 47,244 27.5 27.7 169.4 182.6 13.3 12.3 2.8 2.4 20.8 19.3 2.3 2.0

    Infotech Enterprises Buy 167 196 1,868 1,994 2,039 18.1 18.5 20.2 21.8 8.3 7.7 1.2 1.0 13.8 13.1 0.5 0.4

    KPIT Cummins Buy 96 130 1,852 2,458 2,729 15.5 15.2 13.1 14.5 7.3 6.6 1.5 1.2 20.9 18.8 0.7 0.5

    Mahindra Satyam Buy 108 143 12,697 8,456 9,385 19.3 19.1 10.6 11.9 10.2 9.1 2.3 1.8 22.4 20.1 1.1 0.9

    Mindtree Accumulate 849 926 3,527 2,587 2,823 19.4 19.4 87.2 92.6 9.7 9.2 2.1 1.7 21.8 18.8 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Accumulate 363 395 7,624 6,096 6,646 17.6 17.4 38.1 41.6 9.5 8.7 1.4 1.2 14.2 13.7 0.8 0.6

    NIIT Buy 23 30 386 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 5.5 4.4 0.6 0.5 10.3 12.0 0.1 0.1

    Persistent Accumulate 545 602 2,180 1,433 1,591 24.7 24.6 55.5 60.2 9.8 9.1 1.8 1.5 18.4 16.8 1.1 0.9

    TCS Accumulate 1,425 1,624 278,953 71,548 81,428 28.5 28.1 78.1 87.8 18.3 16.2 5.4 4.5 29.5 27.4 3.7 3.2

    Tech Mahindra Buy 935 1,230 11,980 7,699 8,315 19.3 18.1 107.0 115.0 8.7 8.1 1.9 1.6 21.7 19.1 1.5 1.3

    Wipro Buy 339 450 83,580 47,122 51,460 19.8 19.5 28.2 31.5 12.1 10.8 2.2 1.9 18.2 17.6 1.4 1.1

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 226 272 4,146 1,787 1,974 25.4 26.4 14.5 16.9 15.6 13.4 3.2 2.8 22.4 22.2 2.2 1.9

    HT Media Buy 101 117 2,371 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.0 9.1 12.6 11.1 1.3 1.2 11.2 11.4 0.7 0.5

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 90 121 2,991 1,698 1,908 23.9 24.5 7.4 8.4 12.2 10.8 3.1 2.7 26.7 26.8 1.9 1.7

    PVR Neutral 318 - 1,261 1,343 1,521 18.8 18.9 18.3 22.9 17.4 13.9 1.6 1.8 10.6 12.3 0.9 0.8

    Sun TV Network Neutral 410 - 16,173 2,293 2,571 68.7 68.7 19.3 22.7 21.2 18.1 5.2 4.6 26.1 27.3 6.5 5.6

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 456 - 10,335 13,794 17,335 30.7 34.8 48.9 83.6 9.3 5.5 1.0 0.8 11.2 16.7 2.4 1.9

    Coal India Accumulate 312 345 197,197 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 11.0 10.1 3.0 2.6 37.6 36.2 1.9 1.7

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 17 26 586 2,074 2,176 10.4 11.3 1.9 2.3 8.9 7.5 0.1 0.1 3.7 4.3 0.5 0.2GMDC Buy 145 213 4,603 1,944 2,317 49.9 51.7 20.8 25.6 7.0 5.7 1.6 1.3 24.3 24.6 1.9 1.4

    Hind. Zinc Buy 113 140 47,535 13,759 14,506 50.8 50.4 16.4 17.1 6.9 6.6 1.3 1.1 19.7 17.7 1.4 1.0

    Hindalco Neutral 96 - 18,284 88,987 94,163 9.2 9.7 13.8 15.9 6.9 6.0 0.5 0.5 7.6 8.1 0.6 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 725 - 16,174 39,524 42,064 17.1 16.9 71.8 86.3 10.1 8.4 0.8 0.8 8.6 9.6 0.7 0.6

    MOIL Accumulate 230 243 3,868 954 1,062 45.5 47.4 26.1 29.1 8.8 7.9 1.3 1.1 15.1 15.2 1.6 1.2

    Monnet Ispat Buy 201 291 1,281 2,883 3,181 21.7 23.6 40.3 57.7 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.4 10.1 13.0 1.3 1.1

    Nalco Neutral 35 - 8,930 8,187 8,416 14.5 14.7 3.2 3.3 10.8 10.6 0.7 0.7 6.8 6.7 0.6 0.6

    NMDC Buy 128 179 50,590 10,329 12,540 73.8 75.0 16.6 19.0 7.7 6.7 1.5 1.3 20.6 20.2 2.7 2.1

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    April 23, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 23.04.13

    14/17

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    SAIL Neutral 63 - 26,040 53,685 64,183 9.3 12.2 5.5 8.3 11.5 7.6 0.6 0.6 5.4 7.7 0.8 0.8

    Sesa Goa Accumulate 152 163 13,180 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 31.3 31.2 4.8 4.9 0.7 0.6 14.8 12.9 4.3 3.5

    Sterlite Inds Accumulate 89 98 29,826 45,864 46,970 23.8 25.3 18.8 20.9 4.7 4.3 0.5 0.5 11.7 11.8 0.6 0.5

    Tata Steel Buy 307 430 29,792 141,775 151,672 10.5 11.4 35.3 51.7 8.7 5.9 0.6 0.6 7.6 10.3 0.5 0.5

    Sarda Buy 103 153 371 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.3 2.8 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5

    Prakash Industries Buy 38 48 506 2,668 2,834 10.0 10.1 4.6 5.2 8.1 7.3 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.4 0.5 0.5

    Godawari Power andIspat Buy 84 118 266 2,425 2,552 13.7 14.8 33.5 45.3 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.2 11.2 13.1 0.5 0.4

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 293 340 55,990 17,071 17,034 69.3 55.5 55.5 51.7 5.3 5.7 0.8 0.8 17.1 14.1 2.0 1.6

    GAIL Neutral 334 - 42,412 55,815 63,013 15.3 15.2 35.9 41.5 9.3 8.1 1.5 1.3 17.0 17.1 0.6 0.5

    ONGC Accumulate 328 354 280,962 157,962 175,367 35.1 36.2 34.3 39.3 9.6 8.4 1.7 1.5 18.2 18.6 1.5 1.4

    Reliance Industries Neutral 790 - 255,015 380,031 407,721 9.9 69.3 69.3 78.0 11.4 10.1 1.1 1.0 11.5 11.7 0.6 0.6

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 249 - 3,195 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 10.5 9.7 2.9 2.6 29.6 28.2 0.7 0.7

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 298 - 4,177 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.6 30.4 11.2 9.8 2.3 2.0 22.6 21.7 1.2 1.0

    Petronet LNG Buy 136 174 10,174 41,362 40,852 5.8 6.5 15.6 17.4 8.7 7.8 1.9 1.6 24.1 22.5 0.3 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 69 - 3,877 1,079 983 91.8 91.9 8.8 7.8 7.9 8.8 1.3 1.2 17.8 14.1 3.3 3.6

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Accumulate 115 122 2,161 1,714 1,976 17.1 19.0 9.5 12.2 12.1 9.4 3.2 2.5 30.2 29.8 1.3 1.1

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 190 264 5,521 6,279 7,033 16.0 16.0 15.2 19.2 12.5 9.9 1.7 1.4 19.2 18.0 1.4 1.2

    Aventis* Neutral 2,623 - 6,041 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 28.4 26.5 4.0 4.0 15.7 14.8 3.2 2.6

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 770 962 15,773 7,386 8,863 18.0 18.0 39.5 48.1 19.5 16.0 4.4 3.6 24.8 24.7 2.4 2.0

    Cipla Buy 397 463 31,912 9,130 10,543 24.8 23.0 21.6 23.2 18.4 17.1 3.0 2.6 17.6 16.2 3.2 2.7

    Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,884 2,078 31,987 11,662 13,101 21.0 20.8 92.9 103.9 20.3 18.1 3.9 3.3 20.8 19.6 2.9 2.6

    Dishman Pharma Buy 68 206 551 1,536 1,739 20.2 20.9 15.4 20.6 4.4 3.3 0.5 0.4 11.6 13.7 1.0 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,198 - 18,622 2,993 3,319 30.4 30.2 78.1 86.7 28.2 25.4 8.5 7.7 31.6 31.9 5.4 4.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 65 90 599 784 902 15.2 15.2 7.8 9.0 8.3 7.2 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.8 1.0 0.8

    Ipca labs Buy 509 676 6,421 3,474 4,168 21.0 21.0 37.3 45.1 13.6 11.3 3.2 2.6 26.4 25.3 2.0 1.7

    Lupin Buy 684 792 30,589 11,564 13,847 21.1 21.1 32.8 39.6 20.8 17.3 4.8 3.8 25.7 24.7 2.7 2.2

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 454 - 19,202 11,400 12,060 12.5 12.5 21.6 22.5 21.0 20.2 4.0 3.5 20.6 18.5 1.6 1.5

    Sun Pharma Neutral 927 - 95,860 12,563 14,698 42.6 42.6 29.8 35.5 31.1 26.1 5.5 4.7 19.2 19.3 7.0 5.8

    Power

    GIPCL Accumulate 72 78 1,094 1,535 1,570 31.9 31.6 13.1 14.1 5.5 5.1 0.7 0.6 12.4 12.2 1.0 0.8

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    April 23, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Power

    NTPC Accumulate 149 163 122,734 81,951 92,264 24.1 24.3 13.6 14.9 11.0 10.0 1.4 1.3 13.0 13.1 2.2 2.1

    Real Estate

    DLF Accumulate 251 288 42,655 9,699 12,010 37.0 36.9 6.0 8.4 42.1 29.9 1.6 1.5 3.8 5.1 5.8 4.8

    MLIFE Buy 378 446 1,544 888 1,002 26.7 25.9 36.3 40.6 10.4 9.3 1.1 1.0 10.8 11.0 2.0 1.7

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Accumulate 301 325 114,211 86,933 96,121 30.2 31.2 10.3 15.7 29.3 19.2 2.0 1.9 7.0 9.7 2.0 1.7

    Idea Cellular Neutral 112 - 37,120 24,959 27,232 27.1 27.5 3.7 4.7 30.1 23.8 2.4 2.2 8.1 9.2 1.9 1.7Rcom Neutral 98 - 20,166 22,221 24,253 32.0 32.2 4.3 6.4 22.5 15.2 0.5 0.5 2.4 3.4 2.4 2.1

    Others

    Abbott India* Buy 1,370 1,634 2,911 1,926 2,152 13.1 13.5 79.0 90.8 17.4 15.1 3.8 3.2 23.7 22.8 1.3 1.1

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 169 237 1,686 3,929 4,480 7.4 7.7 15.5 19.7 10.9 8.6 1.9 1.6 17.4 18.7 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 440 620 557 596 743 16.2 16.1 45.0 56.3 9.8 7.8 2.4 1.9 27.8 26.9 1.0 0.8

    Cravatex Buy 302 566 78 308 351 7.0 7.0 39.6 47.2 7.6 6.4 1.7 1.3 21.8 21.0 0.3 0.3

    Finolex Cables Buy 48 68 731 2,559 2,893 9.8 9.8 9.8 11.3 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.6 14.1 14.1 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 366 570 477 2,299 2,621 4.7 4.9 46.3 57.0 7.9 6.4 0.4 0.4 5.0 5.8 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Buy 250 304 577 1,559 1,676 7.1 7.4 27.5 30.5 9.1 8.2 1.5 1.3 16.9 16.7 0.2 0.1

    Hitachi Buy 126 177 344 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 9.2 7.1 1.3 1.1 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Buy 2,460 2,842 2,175 2,117 2,491 8.1 7.8 137.9 157.9 17.8 15.6 2.7 2.3 16.0 15.8 0.9 0.8

    IFB Agro Accumulate 173 198 156 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 5.9 4.4 0.9 0.7 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

    ITD Cementation Buy 180 238 207 1,430 1,573 12.1 12.2 21.8 30.6 8.3 5.9 0.5 0.5 6.1 8.0 0.6 0.6

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 169 - 2,718 979 1,164 14.9 15.1 6.0 7.7 28.0 21.9 3.5 3.2 12.9 15.1 2.9 2.4

    MRF Accumulate 13,225 14,416 5,609 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 7.4 7.3 1.6 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Page Industries Neutral 3,539 - 3,948 1,047 1,281 19.6 19.8 127.3 158.1 27.8 22.4 13.3 9.7 54.9 50.0 3.9 3.2Relaxo Footwears Buy 568 786 681 1,148 1,360 11.7 11.9 55.5 71.4 10.2 8.0 2.4 1.8 26.3 26.2 0.7 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 248 312 232 1,157 1,320 11.9 12.0 66.6 77.9 3.7 3.2 0.6 0.5 18.3 18.2 0.5 0.4

    S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 8 - 251 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 500 744 879 1,069 1,223 9.7 9.7 40.0 46.5 12.5 10.8 1.8 1.5 15.1 15.3 0.8 0.7

    TAJ GVK Buy 64 108 400 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.1 7.0 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.4

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 295 371 454 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.6 4.3 0.6 0.6 14.5 13.8 0.2 -

    TTK Healthcare Buy 452 553 351 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 18.6 13.6 3.1 2.6 17.6 20.8 0.6 0.5

    Tree House Accumulate 261 275 938 150 192 52.7 52.5 12.8 16.2 20.3 16.1 2.0 1.8 10.0 11.1 5.8 4.4

    TVS Srichakra Buy 188 226 144 1,591 1,739 7.1 7.4 39.4 56.5 4.8 3.3 0.9 0.8 20.6 25.0 0.3 0.3

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    April 23, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 23.04.13

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    United Spirits Neutral 2,098 - 27,439 11,886 13,491 14.4 14.0 50.9 74.5 41.2 28.2 3.4 3.0 10.6 11.4 2.6 2.3

    Vesuvius India* Accumulate 322 355 653 591 623 17.5 17.2 29.0 29.6 11.1 10.9 1.7 1.5 16.0 14.5 0.9 0.8

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on April 22, 2013

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    Market OutlookApril 23, 2013