market outlook 22-10-12

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

1/23

Market OutlookOctober 22, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a negative bias tracking negative

to flat opening in most of the Asian markets.

The U.S. markets closed sharply lower on Friday as traders reacted negatively to

the quarterly results from Microsoft, General Electric and McDonald's. The markets

experienced broad based selling pressure, offsetting the strength that was seen

earlier in the week. Adding to the negative sentiment, the National Association of

Realtor's (NAR) released a report showing a drop in existing home sales in

September, with sales pulling back off the two-year high set in the previous

month. NAR said existing home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual

rate of 4.75mn in September from an upwardly revised 4.83mn in August.

Meanwhile the Indian markets fell notably on Friday, hurt by weak Asian and

European cues and announcement from French President that the EU meeting in

Brussels did not discuss a potential aid request from Spain. Looking ahead,

earnings news is likely to remain in focus throughout the week. Traders are also

likely to keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve, with the central bank due to hold

a two-day monetary policy meeting.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,688 / 5,685 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 18,764 18,846 / 5,711 5,737 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

18,688 / 5,685 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

18,606 18,530 / 5,659 5,634 levels.

SENSEX 18,530 18,606 18,688 18,764 18,846

NIFTY 5,634 5,659 5,685 5,711 5,737

News Analysis

Airtel, Vodafone, Idea, Telenor submit applications for 2G auction; RCom,Sistema, Reliance Infotel abstain

Vedanta to resume operations at Odisha refinery Bosch to expand vehicle servicing centers to 3,000 in three years 2QFY2013 Result Review: TCS, ITC, Ultratech, BJAUT, Exide Industries,

Petronet LNG, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, South Indian Bank, Blue Star,

Alembic Pharma, Force Motor, Tata Sponge Iron.

2QFY2013 Result Preview: HDFC, L&T, Cairn India, Bank of Baroda, Idea,Syndicate Bank

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (October 18, 2012)

FII 2,427 2,299 128 9,752 58,732

MFs 272 441 (169) (1,649) (10,384)

FII Derivatives (October 19, 2012)

Index Futures 1,589 1,872 (283) 15,622

Stock Futures 4,868 4,894 (26) 31,402

Gainers / Losers

CRISIL 969 3.4 Exide Industries 148 (8.8)

Gitanjali Gems 394 3.3 Indian Hotels 66 (5.5)

CESC 339 2.6 Jet Air India 355 (4.7)

Emami 530 2.4 Jain Irrigation 71 (3.8)

GMDC 214 2.4 Reliance Capital 440 (3.2)

BSE Sensex (0.6) (109.6) 18,682

Nifty (0.6) (34.5) 5,684

MID CAP (0.5) (35.2) 6,672

SMALL CAP (0.3) (24.1) 7,170

BSE HC (0.5) (36.0) 7,521

BSE PSU (0.7) (54.2) 7,375

BANKEX (0.9) (114.9) 13,193

AUTO (0.9) (93.3) 10,249

METAL (1.3) (138.6) 10,351

OIL & GAS (0.8) (65.5) 8,437

BSE IT (0.3) (15.4) 5,700

Dow Jones (1.5) (205.4) 13,344NASDAQ (2.2) (67.2) 3,006

FTSE (0.4) (20.9) 5,896

Nikkei 0.2 19.8 9,003

Hang Seng 0.2 33.1 21,552

Straits Times (0.4) (11.4) 3,049

Shanghai Com (0.2) (3.4) 2,128

INFY (1.7) (0.8) $43.7

WIT (2.4) (0.2) $8.2IBN (1.6) (0.7) $39.4

HDB (0.5) (0.2) $36.9

Advances 1,275 989

Declines 1,586 521

Unchanged 136 84

BSE 2,190

NSE 10,609

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

2/23



Airtel, Vodafone, Idea, Telenor submit applications for 2Gauction; RCom, Sistema, Reliance Infotel abstain

Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular and Telenor are some of the telecom

companies which on Friday submitted applications to the Department of Telecom

(DoT) for participating in the 2G auction next month, but Reliance Industries andRussia's Sistema surprised by staying away. Videocon also submitted applications

to bid for both GSM and CDMA technologies. As per mdia reports, Vodafone has

submitted applications for 17 circles in 1800 MHz band, Bharti Airtel for six circles,

Videocon for 15 GSM and around 10 CDMA circles and Tata Teleservices for

three circles where it lost its CDMA permits.

October 19 was the last date for companies to submit their application to

participate in the auction, which is scheduled to start from November 12. DoT had

September 28 issued the notice inviting applications. The final list of bidders will

be announced November 6. This will be followed by a mock auction November 7

and 8 and thereafter the e-auction of 1800 MHz band will take place November12. The start of e-auction of 800 MHz band will happen two days after close of the

1800 MHz band auction. The payment of the successful bid amount will have to

be done within 10 days of the close of the respective e-auctions.

Vedanta to resume operations at Odisha refinery

Sterlite Industries associate Vedanta Aluminium Ltd (VAL) will resume operations at

its 1mn-tonne refinery at Lanjigarh in Odisha a week after it had shut down the

plant due to shortage of bauxite. Currently, Sterlite Industries owns 29.5% stake inVAL; however, post Sterlite Industries merger with Sesa Goa, it will own 95.0%

stake in VAL. VAL has got access to 35,000 tonnes of bauxite from BALCOs

Kwardha mine in Chhattisgarh. VAL has also ensured bauxite supplies to the tune

of 90,000 tonnes from Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (GMDC). VAL

said that with the present arrangement the company will be able to run up to

December 5 at reduced capacity utilization of 60-70%. We believe at current

aluminium prices VAL will continue to make losses at the net profit level.

Bosch to expand vehicle servicing centers to 3,000 in three years

Bosch has announced that it is planning to double its centers to up to 3,000 outlets

over the next three years. Currently, Bosch operates a total of 1,500 service centers

for different types of vehicles. Of these, 500 are for passenger vehicles, while 800

are for commercial vehicles and 200 are for other types of vehicles. Last week,

Bosch automotive aftermarkets had launched 100 service centers in North India

with an aim of bridging the large gap in service network in the country. It had

opened 10 outlets in Delhi, 47 in Uttar Pradesh and 43 in Punjab, Chandigarh

and Panchkula collectively. Recently, the company also forayed into two-wheeler

servicing and has opened 11 'Express Bike Service' (EBS) outlets in Coimbatore and

Delhi. These centers will provide service to multi-brand vehicles across different

segments. We see this as a positive development for the company and is expected

to boost the sales of the automotive aftermarket segment which contributes ~20%

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

3/23



of companys revenue. At `8,851, the stock is trading at 20.3x its CY2013E

earnings, which is in-line with its historical average of 20x.

Result Review

TCS (CMP:`1,290 / TP:`1,410 / Upside: 9%)

TCS reported yet another set of healthy quarterly result, outperforming the streets

as well as our expectations on the revenue as well as the profit front. The most

remarkable highlight of the result was the 5.0% qoq volume growth. The dollar

revenue grew by 4.6% qoq to US$2,853mn. In INR terms, revenue came in at

`15,621cr, up 5.1% qoq. TCSs EBITDA and EBIT margins declined by 71bp and

75bp qoq to 28.4% and 26.8% (a bit lower than expectations), respectively, due

to: 1) few transformation projects getting stared which led to onsite effort shift and

one-time costs and 2) change in business mix as incremental growth came in from

ramp ups in projects from emerging markets where price points are slightly lower

from developed markets. The bottom-line of company grew by ~7% qoq to

`3,513cr, aided by forex gain of `92cr as against forex loss of `94cr in

1QFY2013.

TCS closed 11 large deals during 2QFY2013. These deals span industry segments

as well as geographies. The management sounded confident of growing higher

than the industry. The management indicated that it is on track with its guidance of

hiring 50,000 gross employees in FY2013, which gives us confidence about the

demand environment being witnessed by the company. Also, the company has set

campus hiring target of 25,000 people for FY2014, out of which ~12,000 offers

have already been given despite an uncertain environment. Over FY2012-14E, we

expect TCSs revenue to post a 12.8% (USD terms) and 17.3% (INR terms) CAGR.

FY2013E 61,053 28.7 13,638 69.7 32.6 18.5 6.0 13.7 3.9

FY2014E 67,313 29.1 14,922 76.2 29.1 16.9 4.9 12.1 3.5

ITC (CMP:`298/ TP:- /Upside: -)

ITC delivered a stellar set of numbers which was ahead of our estimates.

Topline rose by 19.6% on a yoy basis. Cigarettes business posted a 14.0% yoy

growth in net sales to`3,385cr, with the volumes remaining flat. Other FMCG

business posted a healthy 26.1% yoy growth in net sales to `1,691cr. Agri

business surprised with a remarkably good 41.1% yoy growth in net sales to

`2,024cr, aided by wheat exports. OPM margin came in at 36.5% up 121bp

on yoy basis, with cigarette business posting a healthy margin expansion.

However, margins of agri business fell on a high base. EBIT losses of other

FMCG business stood at `30cr, down from`56cr in 2QFY2012. Bottomline

rose by 21.5% yoy to`1,836cr.

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

4/23



FY2013E 29,513 35.4 7,254 21.2 35.6 32.1 10.6 21.2 7.5

FY2014E 33,885 35.8 8,431 18.2 35.0 27.6 8.9 18.2 6.5

Ultratech (CMP:`2,010 / TP: - / Upside: -)

UltraTech Cements (Ultraech) 2QFY2013 top-line rose by 20% yoy to`4,700,which was inline with our estimates. The growth was driven mainly by higherrealization, as combined sales volume of domestic grey cement (incl clinker)and white cement rose only marginally by 1.6% to 9.3mn tonne. The OPMstood at 22% up 533bp, aided by higher realization, and was inline withestimates. The bottom-line rose by 97% yoy to `550cr, aided by superioroperational performance.

FY2013E 20,745 21.3 2,554 93.2 18.4 21.9 3.7 12.6 208

FY2014E 23,342 22.7 3,029 110.5 18.7 18.5 3.2 11.0 -

Bajaj Auto (CMP:`1,770 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered an in-line operating performance for 2QFY2013;

however, net profit was ahead of our estimates driven by higher-than-expected

other income and slightly lower tax rate. The top-line for 2QFY2013 recorded a

decline of 4.1% yoy (up 2.2% qoq) which was on the expected lines and was on

account of 9.9% yoy (2.8% qoq) decline in total volumes. While domestic volumes

(down 11% yoy) were impacted due to the slowdown in the domestic motorcycle

segment; export volumes (down 8% yoy) declined due to lower dispatches to Sri

Lanka led by hike in import duty. Net average realization though, registered an

increase of 7.1% yoy (5.1% qoq) driven by 8.7% and 4.4% yoy increase in

domestic and export realization, respectively.

On the operating front, EBITDA margin contracted 41bp yoy to 18.4% (in-line with

our estimates) mainly due to increase in other expenditure and employee expense

as a percentage of sales by 80bp and 40bp, respectively. However, raw-material

expense as a percentage of sales witnessed a decline of 80bp yoy during the

quarter. On a sequential basis, EBITDA margins improved 50bp largely due to

raw-material cost savings. Adjusted net profit, however, recorded a decline of

9.8% yoy primarily due to reduction in income tax benefits from the Pantnagar

plant (tax rate of 28.8% as against 25.7% in 2QFY12). Nonetheless, adjusted net

profit was ahead of our estimates by 10.3% driven by higher-than-expected other

income and slightly lower tax rate.

Going ahead, we expect export volumes to recover gradually led by price

rationalization in Sri Lanka and also expect domestic volumes to benefit from the

success of the new launches (Pulsar 200NS and Discover 125 ST). We broadly

retain our estimates for the company. At the CMP of`1,764, the stock is trading at

14.5x FY2014E earnings. We shall

release a detailed result update post the conference call with the management

which is scheduled today.

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

5/23



FY2013E 21,109 18.4 3,140 108.5 46.1 16.3 6.8 11.1 2.0

FY2014E 23,738 18.5 3,534 122.1 41.5 14.5 5.4 9.4 1.7

Exide Industries (CMP:`148 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Exide Industries (EXID) reported extremely weak bottom-line performance for

2QFY2013 which was significantly below our estimates led by sharp deterioration

in operating margins. Top-line though, registered a better-than-expected growth of

29.7% yoy (down 2.1% qoq) to`1,521cr driven by strong growth in the automotive

replacement and industrial battery segments. However, demand from the

automotive OEMs remained subdued due to slowdown in the industry. On the

operating front, EBITDA margins contracted 261bp sequentially to 12.4% against

our expectation of 15.3% on account of increase in raw-material and other

expenditure. While raw-material expenses as a percentage of sales jumped 110bp

led by INR depreciation; other expenditure as a percentage of sales increased

100bp due to higher fuel expenses. Employee cost as a percentage of sales also

grew by 50bp qoq during the quarter. As a result, net profit declined 20.9% qoq to

`120cr against our estimates of `134cr. However on a low base of last year,

operating margins improved 469bp leading to a 135.2% growth in net profit.

Going ahead, we expect the company to report improvement in its operating

performance led by pick-up in demand from the OEM segment and sustained

growth in the automotive replacement segment. Further, EXID has hiked battery

prices by 5% across the replacement segment which will benefit the operating

margins. AT`148, the stock is trading at 16.6x FY2014E earnings. We believe that

the sharp run-up in the stock price captures the expected positives and provides a

limited upside from the current levels.

FY2013E 6,229 14.8 610 7.2 18.5 20.7 3.6 11.6 1.7

FY2014E 7,200 15.8 761 9.0 19.9 16.6 3.1 9.0 1.4

Petronet LNG (CMP:`169, TP: -, Upside: -)

Petronet LNG has reported its 2QFY2013 results. Its net sales increased by 40.7%

yoy to`7,549cr driven by increase in sales realization (+39.7% to `555/mmbtu)

even though volumes were flat yoy at 135TBTU. However, the average cost also

increased by 46.9% yoy to `523/mmbtu. Further, other expenditure increased by

52.9% yoy to`80cr. Hence, the EBITDA declined by 19.3% yoy to `404cr. Other

income increased by 23.1% yoy to`25cr, while the tax rate increased to 32.3% in

2QFY2013, compared to 30.8% in 2QFY2012. Consequently, the net profit

therefore grew by 20.9% yoy to `315cr.

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

6/23



FY2013E 29,145 6.6 1,065 14.2 26.9 11.9 2.9 7.2 0.5

FY2014E 33,736 6.5 1,199 16.0 24.4 10.6 2.3 5.8 0.4

(CMP:`184/ TP: - / Upside: -)

During 2QFY2013, Indian Bank reported subdued earnings growth of 5.7% yoy to

`462cr, despite flat performance at the pre-provisioning profit levels, largely aided

by 8.2% and 9.6% yoy decline in provisioning and tax expenses, respectively.

Advances for the bank grew at a moderate pace of 10.8% yoy. On the liability

side, growth in deposits was relatively higher at 12.9% yoy. CASA ratio, however

declined to 28.96% compared to 29.31% in 1QFY2013. Reported NIMs for the

bank declined by 18bp sequentially to 3.12%. Non-interest income grew by 6.2%

yoy to`363cr. The banks asset quality deteriorated during 2QFY2013, with bothgross and net NPAs levels increasing on a sequential basis by 27% and 31%,

respectively. Gross and Net NPA ratio were higher on a sequential basis by 40bp

and 29bp, respectively to 2.06% and 1.33%. The banks PCR declined sequentially

by 411bp to 71%. At CMP, the stock trades at 0.7x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 6,062 3.4 1,789 40.5 246.2 1.2 18.1 4.6 0.8

FY2014E 6,818 3.4 1,834 41.6 278.5 1.1 16.3 4.5 0.7

Federal Bank posted net profit growth of 12.5% yoy to `215cr. The performance

on the operating income front was muted with net interest income growing by

6.6% yoy. Growth in non-interest income came in healthy at 19.2% yoy. Operating

expenses were higher by 28.5% yoy to 296cr, which lead to operating profit

decline of 3.2% yoy. However, provisioning expenses were significantly lower by

57.8% yoy, leading to a moderate bottom-line growth of 12.5% yoy. On the asset

quality front, the bank witnessed stability, with both Gross and Net NPA increasing

by marginal 1.9% and 3.7%, qoq respectively.

The banks valuations at 1.1x FY2014 ABV are higher than the 0.5-0.9x range at

which mid-size PSU banks with similar KPIs are trading.

FY2013E 2,593 3.2 769 368.4 8.5 1.2 12.8 10.5 1.3

FY2014E 3,009 3.2 898 409.2 10.0 1.1 13.5 9.0 1.1

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

7/23



South Indian Bank (CMP: 23/ TP: 25/ Upside: 8.3%)

For 2QFY2013, South Indian Bank (SIB) reported a muted net profit growth of

2.3% yoy (down 21.0% qoq) to`97cr, which was lower than our as well as streets

estimates on account of higher provisioning expenses due to a large government

account (NAFED, `150cr) slipping and due to employee related fraud (`32cr)during the quarter. The bank also had to record `20cr of interest reversal during

the quarter due to which the NIMs declined sequentially by 6bp. As a result of

higher slippages, the banks gross NPA levels increased by 68.2% qoq, while net

NPA levels more than doubled sequentially during the quarter. However, the bank

is confident of nearly full recovery from NAFED (being a government account) and

also from the employee fraud (maximum loss of `10cr from `32cr as collateral

and insurance already in place). The stock has been an underperformer in the

banking sector and with expected ROAs of 1.0% for FY2014, at 1.0 FY2014

P/ABV; we believe there is room for some upside in the stock.

FY2013E 1,535 2.9 473 3.5 21.1 1.1 19.4 6.6 1.1

FY2014E 1,760 2.8 522 3.9 24.2 1.0 17.1 6.0 1.0

Blue Star (CMP:`214 / TP:`249 / Upside: 16%)

Blue Star announced a mixed set of numbers for 2QFY2013. Topline came in at

`579cr, 4.3% lower than `605cr in 2QFY2012. However, EBITDA margin

expanded by 123bps on a yoy basis from 2.3% in 2QFY2012 to 3.5% in

2QFY2013 aided by improved margins in the EMPPAC division. This led to a PAT

of`7cr for the quarter vs. a loss of `21cr in 2QFY2012.

FY2013E 2,763 3.2 31 3.5 7.7 61.9 4.6 24.4 0.8

FY2014E 2,948 5.6 82 9.1 18.4 23.5 4.0 12.4 0.7

Note: Numbers are subject to change post conference call

Alembic Pharmaceuticals (CMP:`70/ TP:`91/ Upside: 30%)

Alembic Pharmaceuticals (Alembic)s 2QFY2013 results have come above our

expectations on the operating front. On the sales front, the company grossed sales

of`406cr, registering a revenue growth of 2.2% yoy, just in line with expectations.

Alembic reported revenue growth of 2.2% yoy to `406cr, mainly driven by the

domestic formulation business which grew by 11.9% yoy. However, the exports

segment de-grew by 18.5% yoy, impacted by de-growth of formulation exports

(which de-grew by 28.4% yoy). API exports on the other hand de-grew by 4.7%.

The exports segments, namely the branded exports and international generics, de-

grew by 27.9% yoy and 28.5% yoy respectively. The de-growth in the international

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

8/23



generic formulations was mainly due to price erosion, product mix and capacity

constraints.

The management expects FY2013 to be a strong year for the domestic formulation

business, where the company expects to log in a 12-14% yoy growth, driven by the

chronic segment.

On the operating front, the company posted an OPM of 15.7% vs an expectation

of 14.2%. The gross margins expanded by 235bps on the back of higher

contribution from domestic formulations, which aided on the operating front. The

margins came in at 15.7% vs 14.2% (our expectation). On a yoy basis, the

company posted a 72bps expansion in OPM, lower than the expansion in the

gross margins, on account of a higher-than-expected rise in the salary and selling,

general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which grew by 30.7% yoy and

22.5% yoy respectively. On the other hand the other expenditure de-grew by 4.8%

yoy which aided the expansion in the OPM.This lead the net profits to come above

expectations at`

42cr (expectation was of`

35cr). At the current market price, thestock is trading at an attractive valuation.

FY2013E 1,624 14.2 124 6.6 27.8 10.6 2.6 6.5 0.9

FY2014E 1,855 15.6 171 9.1 30.0 7.7 2.0 5.0 0.8

Force Motors (CMP:`425 / TP:`591/ Upside: 41%)Force Motors Ltd. (FML) reported healthy set of numbers with robust performance

on operating front for 2QFY2013. The company's top line de-grew by 4.7% yoy

and came in at `504cr, lower than our estimate of `534cr. On operating front,

EBITDA grew by 11.6% yoy and came in at `31cr and was higher by whooping

78.7% on qoq basis. Operating margins too improved substantially by 89 basis

points yoy and 273 basis points on qoq basis and came in at 6.5%. Margin

improvement (yoy) is mainly attributable to reduction in employee cost (11.8% vis-

-vis 15%) as well as raw material cost (71.3% vis--vis 72.3%) as percentage of

sales. Adjusted PAT came in at `19cr, 351% higher yoy, compared to our

estimates of `11cr; owing to strong operating performance coupled with

substantial addition made by other income (`13cr vis--vis 1.5cr).

FY2013E 2,214 5.0 59 44.8 4.9 9.4 0.5 1.9 0.1

FY2014E 2,753 5.6 97 73.9 7.6 5.7 0.4 1.7 0.1

Tata Sponge Iron (CMP:`322, TP:`384, Upside: 19%)

For 2QFY2013, TSILs reported inline revenue at `196cr, 12.6% higher on a yoy

basis from `174cr in 2QF2012. Capacity utilization during the quarter stood at

81% (79,000MT) due to a planned shutdown of the manufacturing plant, while

volume sales stood at 89,000MT. However, EBITDA margin contracted by 57bp on

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

9/23



a yoy basis to 16.6%% inspite of a fall in imported coal prices due to utilization of

high cost inventory from previous quarter, which led to an increase in net raw

material cost. Net profit increased by 18.6% yoy from `21cr in 2QFY2012 to

`26cr currently due to onetime increase in other income during the quarter. Post

the open offer by Tata Steel, TSIL has become a subsidiary of the company, which

owns a 51% stake in the company. The company has stake in Talcher coal block inRadhikapur and is pending forest approval. According to some media reports,

there has been a deduction of the bank guarantees for the coal block; however the

management has not received any notification regarding the same.

FY2013E 750 18.6 10165.4 33.6 4.9 0.8 1.5 0.3

FY2014E 803 18.4 10669.1 32.8 4.7 0.7 0.9 0.2

Result Preview

HDFC (CMP:`752/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

HDFC is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect HDFC to

report a 21.5% yoy growth in net interest income to `1,413cr. Other income is

expected to remain moderately by 4.4% yoy to `328cr. We expected provisioning

to come in at`36cr and net PAT to grow by 15.2% yoy to`1,118cr.

FY2013E 7,340 3.5 4,828 31.5 157.7 1.0 34.8 23.9 4.8

FY2014E 8,805 3.5 5,792 37.8 176.9 1.0 32.2 19.9 4.3

L&T (CMP:`1,632/ TP:`1,721/ Upside: 5%)

We expect Larsen and Toubro (L&T) to record a revenue of `12,634cr, registering

a 12.3% yoy growth for 2QFY2013. This growth can be attributed to the

companys large order book (~`1.4trillion). On the EBITDA front, we expect thecompanys margin to witness on expansion of 96bp yoy to 11.4%. We project the

net profit to come in at`891cr, indicating a growth of 11.6% yoy.

At the current market price of `1,139, the stock is trading at 21.4x FY2014E

earnings and 3x FY2014E P/BV, on a standalone basis. We have used the

sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology to value the company to capture all its

business initiatives and investments/stakes in the different businesses. Ascribing

separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis and investments in

subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and market cap basis, our target price works out to

`1,721.

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

10/23

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

11/23



FY2013E 22,582 26.4 1,097 3.3 7.8 24.3 1.9 6.1 1.6

FY2014E 24,684 26.9 1,559 4.7 9.9 17.1 1.7 5.3 1.4

(CMP:`123/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Syndicate Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the

bank to report a subdued Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 4.0% yoy to

`1,366cr. Non-interest income is expected to increase by 6.3% yoy to `260cr.

Operating expenses of the bank are expected to be higher by 11.5% yoy to

`743cr, which would result in flat performance at pre-provisioning profits level.

However, net profit is expected to go up by 10.4% yoy to`356cr, largely aided by

17.2% yoy decline in provisioning expenses to `420cr. At the CMP, the stock

trades at a valuation of 0.7x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 6,722 2.9 1,461 24.3 152.0 0.7 17.0 4.8 0.8

FY2014E 7,719 3.0 1,640 27.2 172.8 0.7 16.8 4.3 0.7

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net profit 1,195 1,166 2 1,139 5

Net profit 1,145 971 18 1,002 14

Net sales 4,642 2,652 75 4,440 5

EBITDA 3,592 2,065 74 3,457 4

EBITDA margin (%) 77.4 77.9 77.9

Net profit 2,816 763 269 3,826 (26)

Net sales 5,451 4,608 18 5,502 (1)

EBITDA 1,392 1,187 17 1,436 (3)

EBITDA margin (%) 25.5 25.8 26.1

Net profit 207 106 95 234 (12)

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

12/23



Net sales 13,178 11,245 17 11,955 10

EBITDA 1,300 1,174 11 1,087 20

EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 10.4 9.1

Net profit 892 798 12 864 3

Net sales 5,104 5,784 (12) 6,208 (18)

EBITDA 660 919 (28) 937 (30)

EBITDA margin (%) 12.9 15.9 15.1

Net profit 446 604 (26) 615 (27)

Net sales 2,191 1,742 26 2,219 (1)

EBITDA 443 404 10 458 (3)

EBITDA margin (%) 20.2 23.2 20.6

Net profit 283 218 30 285 (1)

Net sales 10,421 10,134 3 10,591 (2)

EBITDA 2,365 2,482 (5) 2,308 2

EBITDA margin (%) 22.7 24.5 21.8

Net profit 1,239 1,500 (17) 1,779 (30)

Net sales 2,032 1,721 18 2,180 (7)

EBITDA 353 325 9 386 (9)

EBITDA margin (%) 17.4 18.9 17.7

Net profit 159 43 266 172 (8)

Net profit 297 235 26 290 2

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

13/23



Economic and Political News

Finance Ministry expects revival in industrial activity as banks cut rates Power firms may sign FSAs with Coal India by November end Government lifts ban on edible oil exports in branded consumer packs

Corporate News

BPCL raises US$500mn at 4.6% via bond offering in overseas markets Kingfisher Airlines' license suspended by aviation regulator Arasu Cable to start operations in Chennai from November ONGC looks to hire RIL's ununtilised production facilities RIL to get higher gas price for KG-D6 gas

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

14/23

Date Company

October 22, 2012 HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Cairn India, Idea Cellular, Bank of Baroda, Syndicate Bank, Indiabulls Fin.

October 23, 2012 Hero Motocorp, Sterlite Inds, Lupin, Yes Bank, United Phosphorus, Bank of Maharashtra

October 24, 2012

October 25, 2012 Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Nalco, Oriental Bank, Ipca labs, Bajaj Electrical, KPIT Cummins

October 26, 2012 NTPC, ICICI Bank, HUL, GAIL, Punjab Natl.Bank, Sesa Goa, IDFC, Dabur India, IOB, United Bank, Hind. Const.

October 27, 2012 IDBI Bank, Sarda Energy

October 28, 2012 JSW Steel

October 29, 2012 BHEL, Colgate, Styrolution

October 30, 2012 Maruti, Dr Reddy's, Grasim Inds, Mahindra Satyam, Thermax, Taj GVK, PVR

October 31, 2012 NHPC, Titan Inds., LIC Housing Fin., Tata Global, Aventis, TVS Motor

November 01, 2012 Hexaware, BGR Energy , Jyothy Laboratories

November 02, 2012 Wipro, Rural Elec.Corp., Marico, Apollo Tyres, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma

November 03, 2012 Godrej Consumer

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

October 23, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value Oct A (25.90) (26.00)

October 24, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Oct A 49.70 50.00

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Oct A 47.40 48.00

US New home sales Thousands Sep 373.00 385.00

US FOMC rate decision % Oct 24 0.25 0.25October 25, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Oct 20 388.00 365.00

UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q A (0.50) (0.50)

October 26, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q A 1.30 1.80

October 30, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100Oct 70.30 --

India RBI Repo rate % Oct 30 8.00 8.00

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Oct 30 4.50 4.25

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Oct 30 7.00 7.00

October 31, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Oct 9.00 --

November 01, 2012 UK PMI Manufacturing Value Oct 48.40 --

China PMI Manufacturing Value Oct 49.80 --

November 02, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Oct 114.00 --

US Unnemployment rate % Oct 7.80 --

November 06, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Sep (1.20) --

November 08, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Nov 8 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Nov 8 0.75 --

November 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Oct 9.20 --

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Oct 1.90 --



October 22, 2012

Market Outlook

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

15/23

Market StrategyOctober 22, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

3. 5

5. 7

9 .0

7. 5

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

2. 5

(5.0)

6. 0

2 .7

1. 0

4. 3

(2.8)

(1.3)

2. 5

(1.8)

(0.2)

2. 7

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 6 7. 5 7. 67. 8

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Exp orts yo y growth Im ports yo y growth( %)


Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

8.00

7.00

4.50

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

16/23

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 136 - 2,653 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 19.5 16.8 4.1 3.5 22.6 22.5 1.9 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 119 170 5,476 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.9 7.0 1.2 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 238 - 4,071 2,844 3,275 15.4 15.6 15.9 18.8 15.0 12.7 3.9 3.1 28.9 26.9 1.4 1.2

Apollo Tyres Buy 85 99 4,262 13,412 15,041 11.3 11.0 12.1 14.2 7.0 6.0 1.3 1.1 19.6 19.2 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 23 30 6,226 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 10.8 8.5 2.0 1.7 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle# Accumulate 396 430 598 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.7 9.2 2.1 1.8 21.2 21.3 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,770 - 51,224 21,109 23,738 18.4 18.5 108.5 122.1 16.3 14.5 6.8 5.4 46.1 41.5 2.1 1.7

Bharat Forge Buy 304 351 7,076 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 15.0 12.1 2.8 2.3 20.0 20.9 1.2 1.0

Bosch India* Neutral 8,851 - 27,790 8,793 10,294 17.4 18.5 348.3 435.8 25.4 20.3 4.9 4.1 19.4 20.1 2.8 2.3

CEAT Buy 117 164 400 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.6 2.8 0.5 0.5 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 148 - 12,610 6,229 7,200 14.8 15.8 7.2 9.0 20.7 16.6 3.6 3.1 18.5 19.9 1.7 1.4

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,822 - 3,028 1,505 1,768 17.5 18.0 111.2 132.7 16.4 13.7 3.4 2.8 22.8 22.2 1.8 1.4

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,849 2,077 36,930 24,941 28,706 15.0 15.5 122.5 134.0 15.1 13.8 6.6 5.2 49.6 42.2 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 108 135 444 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.5 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 823 944 50,555 37,434 42,860 11.6 11.5 50.4 56.3 16.4 14.6 3.4 2.9 22.6 21.5 1.1 0.9

Maruti Neutral 1,369 - 39,556 41,796 49,350 7.6 8.6 66.6 92.6 20.6 14.8 2.4 2.1 12.0 14.8 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Neutral 150 - 8,839 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 18.7 14.2 3.9 3.2 22.9 24.7 0.5 0.5

Subros Buy 29 34 175 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.5 5.1 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 269 316 71,665 195,096 219,428 12.8 13.0 39.0 44.9 6.9 6.0 2.0 1.5 32.6 28.8 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 43 49 2,029 7,611 8,443 7.9 7.9 4.7 5.4 9.1 7.9 1.5 1.3 17.9 18.1 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 780 593 16,526 8,760 10,023 6.2 8.7 14.5 24.7 54.0 31.6 5.9 5.1 11.6 17.6 1.9 1.6BGR Energy Neutral 273 - 1,972 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 11.1 9.2 1.6 1.5 15.3 16.7 1.1 1.0

BHEL Neutral 242 - 59,256 47,801 43,757 19.0 18.8 25.3 22.8 9.6 10.6 2.9 2.5 34.3 25.3 1.1 1.2

Blue Star Neutral 214 - 1,924 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 12.5 16.2 17.1 13.2 4.1 3.4 26.1 28.2 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 130 141 8,333 12,691 14,126 7.4 8.9 7.0 9.7 18.6 13.4 2.1 1.9 11.9 15.0 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Accumulate 48 54 392 2,622 2,744 10.7 10.5 9.6 12.2 5.0 3.9 0.5 0.5 10.8 12.3 0.4 0.3

KEC International Accumulate 71 78 1,814 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 8.5 7.2 1.4 1.2 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Neutral 2,040 - 2,298 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.2 12.3 2.4 2.2 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 575 - 6,849 5,514 5,559 8.9 10.2 26.9 30.3 21.4 19.0 3.7 3.2 18.4 18.2 1.1 1.1


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

17/23



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,408 - 26,438 10,964 12,417 21.6 21.5 76.9 82.2 18.3 17.1 3.5 3.1 19.5 19.1 2.1 1.8

Ambuja Cements Neutral 206 - 31,802 10,163 11,729 25.4 24.9 11.2 12.5 18.5 16.5 4.0 3.6 20.3 20.5 2.7 2.3

India Cements Neutral 98 - 3,021 4,354 4,929 18.6 18.7 9.8 12.3 10.0 8.0 0.8 0.8 8.6 10.2 1.2 1.0

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 116 - 1,415 1,964 2,278 19.5 20.4 16.3 17.9 7.1 6.5 1.0 0.9 14.7 14.6 0.9 1.2

Madras Cements Neutral 187 - 4,455 3,608 3,928 27.6 27.0 15.7 18.3 11.9 10.3 1.9 1.6 16.9 17.0 1.9 1.6

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,206 - 14,654 5,701 6,210 29.7 28.1 240.7 260.7 17.5 16.1 4.2 3.5 27.1 23.6 2.0 1.6

UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,010 - 55,082 20,913 23,530 21.3 22.7 93.2 1 10.5 21.6 18.2 3.7 3.2 18.4 18.7 2.6 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 220 304 1,158 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 8.1 6.9 1.0 0.9 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 259 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 9.4 5.3 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

Hind. Const. Neutral 17 - 1,049 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (7.7) (17.9) 1.0 1.1 (11.4) (5.6) 1.2 1.2

IRB Infra Accumulate 146 166 4,856 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.7 16.9 9.3 8.6 1.5 1.3 16.6 15.8 2.8 2.6

ITNL Buy 184 232 3,581 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 30.3 7.5 6.1 1.1 1.0 16.0 16.2 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Accumulate 45 51 1,375 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 17.7 9.8 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Neutral 93 - 19,872 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.0 4.8 23.3 19.6 1.8 1.7 8.5 9.3 2.6 2.3

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,633 1,721 100,217 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 20.5 19.1 3.5 3.0 16.3 15.1 1.8 1.6

Madhucon Proj Buy 34 56 249 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.3 7.2 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Reduce 48 45 1,225 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 15.7 13.7 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 80 - 559 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.7 5.5 0.4 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

Punj Lloyd Neutral 52 - 1,719 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 30.5 16.8 0.6 0.6 1.9 3.4 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 139 182 2,096 2,506 3,147 10.3 10.7 7.5 10.4 18.6 13.4 2.3 2.0 13.5 16.0 1.0 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 218 265 1,080 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.4 29.4 9.3 7.4 0.8 0.8 9.2 10.6 0.5 0.5

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Reduce 143 131 7,133 6,944 7,884 3.0 3.1 35.5 37.0 4.0 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.2 15.7 - -

Andhra Bank Reduce 114 97 6,388 4,929 5,633 3.1 3.1 23.7 24.5 4.8 4.7 0.8 0.7 16.6 15.3 - -

Axis Bank Accumulate 1,200 1,328 49,722 15,686 18,687 3.1 3.2 116.8 138.0 10.3 8.7 1.9 1.6 20.0 20.2 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 797 - 31,204 15,473 18,142 2.6 2.6 115.3 139.4 6.9 5.7 1.1 0.9 16.2 17.2 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 301 330 17,279 12,573 14,971 2.3 2.4 58.2 68.0 5.2 4.4 0.9 0.7 15.9 16.3 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 50 - 2,924 3,442 3,802 3.1 3.2 8.9 11.4 5.6 4.3 0.7 0.6 13.5 15.5 - -

Canara Bank Reduce 447 421 19,780 10,905 12,783 2.1 2.2 74.9 85.1 6.0 5.3 0.9 0.8 15.1 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 76 - 5,558 7,095 8,102 2.5 2.7 15.6 21.0 4.8 3.6 0.8 0.7 12.2 14.7 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

18/23



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 409 447 6,061 4,886 5,669 2.1 2.2 101.3 101.8 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.1 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 110 - 3,866 3,147 3,495 2.8 2.9 24.8 24.4 4.5 4.5 0.8 0.7 18.7 15.9 - -

Federal Bank Reduce 482 450 8,244 2,593 3,009 3.2 3.2 44.9 52.5 10.7 9.2 1.3 1.2 12.8 13.5 - -

HDFC Neutral 752 - 115,787 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 23.9 19.9 4.8 4.3 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 628 - 148,374 21,696 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 36.0 21.9 17.4 4.2 3.5 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,056 1,245 121,364 22,304 26,855 2.9 3.0 68.6 82.0 15.4 12.9 1.9 1.7 14.2 15.6 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 99 - 12,707 7,761 9,484 1.9 2.2 17.1 22.9 5.8 4.3 0.7 0.6 11.9 14.4 - -Indian Bank Neutral 184 - 7,886 6,062 6,818 3.4 3.4 40.5 41.6 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 18.1 16.3 - -

IOB Accumulate 81 87 6,468 7,343 8,391 2.5 2.5 16.0 21.3 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.3 13.6 - -

J & K Bank Reduce 1,155 1,021 5,597 2,600 2,850 3.6 3.5 192.3 188.0 6.0 6.1 1.2 1.0 21.0 17.7 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 248 301 12,495 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 11.7 8.7 1.9 1.6 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 294 - 8,589 6,278 7,125 2.7 2.8 56.7 62.6 5.2 4.7 0.7 0.6 14.1 13.9 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 822 941 27,886 19,934 22,705 3.3 3.3 147.8 166.2 5.6 5.0 1.0 0.8 17.7 17.3 - -

South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,132 1,535 1,760 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 6.6 6.0 1.1 1.0 19.5 17.1 - -

St Bk of India Neutral 2,257 - 151,431 63,806 73,435 3.5 3.6 225.7 258.4 10.0 8.7 1.7 1.4 17.7 17.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Reduce 123 117 7,431 6,722 7,719 2.9 3.0 24.3 27.2 5.1 4.5 0.8 0.7 17.0 16.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 5,215 5,411 6,124 2.4 2.5 17.0 16.5 4.6 4.8 0.9 0.8 16.7 14.4 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 209 226 11,501 9,924 11,647 2.8 2.9 38.6 46.3 5.4 4.5 0.9 0.7 15.4 16.3 - -

United Bank Accumulate 68 78 2,455 3,572 4,041 2.8 2.9 17.2 22.1 4.0 3.1 0.6 0.5 14.2 16.2 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 57 - 2,822 2,490 2,881 2.1 2.2 9.2 11.4 6.2 5.0 0.8 0.7 11.5 13.0 - -

Yes Bank Buy 383 452 13,635 3,270 4,253 2.8 3.0 33.9 42.2 11.3 9.1 2.4 2.0 23.1 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,882 - 37,233 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 32.1 26.8 10.8 8.5 37.4 35.3 3.3 2.7Britannia Buy 487 584 5,815 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 23.5 19.2 9.3 7.1 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,249 - 16,981 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.2 35.7 42.3 35.0 29.5 32.3 24.0 101.0 93.5 5.5 4.8

Dabur India Neutral 131 - 22,806 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 29.3 25.3 12.1 9.6 43.2 41.5 3.7 3.2

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,058 - 12,861 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 29.3 24.7 9.1 7.3 34.4 32.8 3.8 3.2

Godrej Consumer Neutral 690 - 23,493 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 31.6 26.1 7.0 5.8 25.5 25.4 4.0 3.4

HUL Neutral 567 - 122,483 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 39.7 34.4 23.7 18.2 70.9 59.8 4.6 4.0

ITC Neutral 298 - 233,725 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 32.1 27.6 10.6 8.9 35.6 35.0 7.6 6.6


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

19/23



FMCG

Marico Neutral 205 - 13,194 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.8 8.5 30.2 24.2 8.3 6.3 31.4 29.7 2.8 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 4,775 - 46,042 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 41.6 34.2 25.1 17.5 71.2 60.3 5.4 4.5

Tata Global Neutral 158 - 9,768 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 23.9 20.2 2.4 2.3 8.6 9.5 1.3 1.1

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 604 648 41,906 24,214 26,772 19.5 18.1 44.0 48.0 13.7 12.6 3.3 2.7 24.0 22.0 1.7 1.4

Hexaware* Buy 110 140 3,255 1,966 2,161 22.5 21.4 11.6 12.2 9.5 9.0 2.5 2.1 26.8 23.9 1.4 1.2

Infosys Accumulate 2,383 2,573 136,857 39,174 41,580 29.5 30.4 159.2 171.6 15.0 13.9 3.6 3.2 24.1 23.1 2.9 2.7Infotech Enterprises Neutral 194 - 2,163 1,886 2,032 17.9 17.3 18.7 20.2 10.4 9.6 1.6 1.4 14.9 14.0 0.8 0.7

KPIT Cummins Buy 116 142 2,065 2,191 2,364 16.1 16.5 11.3 13.0 10.3 8.9 2.3 1.8 21.8 20.0 0.9 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Neutral 107 - 12,534 7,628 8,062 19.9 18.4 9.7 10.0 10.9 10.6 3.0 2.4 27.7 22.2 1.2 1.1

Mindtree Accumulate 655 747 2,679 2,324 2,437 20.0 17.7 73.3 74.7 8.9 8.8 2.1 1.7 24.1 19.7 0.9 0.8

Mphasis& Neutral 401 - 8,417 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.8 10.7 1.6 1.4 14.3 12.6 1.0 0.9

NIIT Neutral 35 - 576 1,034 1,146 9.9 11.0 5.2 6.4 6.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 12.8 14.3 0.4 0.3

Persistent Reduce 465 420 1,860 1,207 1,278 26.2 24.3 42.4 44.3 11.0 10.5 1.9 1.6 17.1 15.5 1.2 1.1

TCS Accumulate 1,290 1,405 252,540 61,611 67,507 29.3 29.1 69.0 74.0 18.7 17.5 6.1 5.0 32.4 28.6 3.9 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 927 1,046 11,837 6,603 7,196 18.2 17.1 92.7 99.6 10.0 9.3 2.4 1.9 23.6 20.5 1.9 1.6

Wipro Buy 344 421 84,803 43,800 48,332 19.5 19.3 25.6 28.1 13.5 12.3 2.6 2.2 18.9 17.9 1.6 1.4

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 221 236 4,060 1,604 1,786 22.3 23.8 11.2 13.7 19.9 16.2 3.7 3.2 20.3 21.4 2.4 2.1

HT Media Accumulate 101 113 2,376 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 13.7 12.3 1.5 1.3 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Accumulate 104 112 3,289 1,488 1,664 22.7 22.8 6.2 7.1 16.7 14.6 4.1 3.6 25.2 26.3 2.4 2.1

PVR Neutral 215 - 560 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 16.2 13.8 1.8 1.6 13.2 13.8 1.3 1.1

Sun TV Network Neutral 363 - 14,293 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 19.5 17.0 4.9 4.3 27.1 27.5 6.7 5.7Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 499 - 10,598 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 10.2 8.1 1.3 1.2 14.1 15.2 2.9 2.4

Coal India Accumulate 354 385 223,410 69,808 75,550 27.4 27.4 26.0 28.3 13.6 12.5 3.9 3.2 32.5 28.1 2.3 1.9

Electrosteel Castings Buy 24 29 820 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 0.8 2.0 28.4 11.7 0.5 0.2 1.7 4.1 0.6 0.6

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 134 144 56,725 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 14.3 15.5 9.4 8.6 1.8 1.5 20.5 18.9 2.7 2.1

Hindalco Neutral 115 - 21,999 84,855 92,446 8.7 9.3 13.2 16.2 8.7 7.1 0.7 0.6 7.8 8.9 0.6 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 734 - 16,373 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 9.2 8.2 0.9 0.8 10.4 10.6 0.9 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 248 271 4,167 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 10.1 9.5 1.5 1.4 16.0 15.5 2.2 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 295 379 1,895 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.4 5.1 0.7 0.6 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

20/23



Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 50 - 12,770 7,401 7,841 16.7 19.2 3.4 4.1 14.5 12.1 1.0 1.0 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.2

NMDC Accumulate 186 214 73,823 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 8.8 8.0 2.4 1.9 29.6 26.5 3.9 3.2

SAIL Neutral 82 - 33,953 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.6 7.0 0.8 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Neutral 169 - 14,675 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.0 3.9 0.8 0.7 22.3 19.2 2.2 2.0

Sterlite Inds Neutral 100 - 33,724 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.2 5.9 0.7 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 407 481 39,538 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 8.4 6.4 0.8 0.8 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 128 148 458 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 3.9 3.4 0.6 0.5 15.1 14.8 0.7 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 53 73 714 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 3.2 2.6 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 119 161 378 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.3 43.2 3.6 2.8 0.4 0.4 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Accumulate 334 380 63,702 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 5.9 6.1 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.9 2.2

GAIL Neutral 360 - 45,659 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.2 9.9 1.8 1.6 18.9 17.0 0.6 0.5

ONGC Accumulate 279 312 238,741 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 9.1 8.6 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.4 1.2

Reliance Industries Neutral 803 - 263,012 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 60.0 63.3 13.4 12.7 1.3 1.2 11.1 10.6 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 297 - 3,811 3,228 3,819 11.5 11.3 19.2 22.1 15.5 13.5 4.1 3.7 28.7 29.0 1.1 0.9

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 254 - 3,553 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 10.2 9.1 2.4 2.0 25.5 23.6 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Neutral 169 - 12,660 29,145 33,736 6.6 6.6 14.2 16.0 11.9 10.6 2.9 2.3 26.9 24.4 0.5 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 79 - 4,448 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 9.3 10.7 1.6 1.4 18.1 14.0 5.2 5.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 70 91 1,314 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.6 7.7 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.9 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Neutral 157 - 4,565 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 13.3 12.4 1.7 1.4 17.9 16.4 1.4 1.2

Aventis* Neutral 2,209 - 5,088 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 23.2 21.2 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.8Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 851 953 17,418 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 23.6 18.5 5.6 4.5 25.8 26.8 3.1 2.5

Cipla Accumulate 359 399 28,833 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 19.5 18.0 3.2 2.8 17.8 16.6 3.4 2.9

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,701 1,859 28,877 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.3 18.3 4.2 3.5 22.4 20.8 3.0 2.6

Dishman Pharma Neutral 97 - 785 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.6 8.6 0.8 0.7 7.7 8.5 1.3 1.1

GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,995 - 16,896 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.3 24.2 7.6 6.8 20.1 26.3 5.6 4.8

Indoco Remedies Buy 65 92 596 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.7 7.3 1.3 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Neutral 458 - 5,775 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 15.7 12.5 3.7 2.9 26.1 26.1 2.2 1.8

Lupin Accumulate 571 647 25,549 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.7 18.3 5.1 4.1 26.0 24.7 3.1 2.5

Orchid Chemicals Neutral 109 - 767 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 9.6 8.2 0.6 0.6 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

21/23



Pharmaceuticals

Ranbaxy* Neutral 540 - 22,790 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 17.2 18.1 5.9 4.7 39.1 28.9 1.9 1.9

Sun Pharma Neutral 694 - 71,805 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 26.7 24.6 5.0 4.3 20.3 18.8 6.6 5.1

Power

CESC Neutral 339 - 4,236 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 7.6 7.1 0.8 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.6 1.6

GIPCL Accumulate 69 77 1,043 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.4 6.3 0.7 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.1 1.0

NTPC Neutral 166 - 137,122 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 13.8 12.1 1.7 1.5 12.6 13.2 2.5 2.3

Real EstateAnant Raj Neutral 77 - 2,263 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 9.1 6.0 0.6 0.5 6.3 8.9 4.7 3.5

DLF Neutral 206 - 34,999 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 21.5 15.4 1.4 1.3 6.4 8.7 6.0 5.0

HDIL Accumulate 103 115 4,307 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.5 3.9 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.6 2.7

MLIFE Neutral 403 - 1,644 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 12.6 10.9 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.4 2.1

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 267 - 101,261 79,147 86,745 31.1 32.5 9.9 15.1 26.9 17.7 1.9 1.7 7.0 9.7 2.0 1.7

Idea Cellular Neutral 81 - 26,768 22,582 24,684 26.4 26.9 3.3 4.7 24.3 17.1 1.9 1.7 7.8 9.9 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 60 - 12,374 20,650 20,935 32.3 33.0 4.2 5.8 14.2 10.4 0.3 0.3 2.3 3.1 2.2 2.1

zOthers

Abbott India Neutral 1,483 - 3,152 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 27.1 20.7 5.1 4.4 20.0 22.7 1.8 1.5

Bajaj Electricals Neutral 228 - 2,270 3,670 4,290 7.6 8.8 15.0 23.0 15.2 9.9 2.8 2.2 18.6 22.4 0.6 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Neutral 376 - 476 396 470 16.7 16.6 31.0 35.0 12.1 10.7 2.7 2.2 24.8 23.0 1.3 1.1

Cravatex Buy 457 682 118 289 340 5.2 5.9 41.0 57.0 11.2 8.0 2.8 2.1 25.2 26.5 0.5 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 969 - 6,800 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 28.2 24.2 12.8 10.2 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.5

Finolex Cables Buy 48 61 727 2,334 2,687 6.2 6.5 8.0 10.0 5.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 13.0 14.9 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 421 591 548 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.0 74.0 10.8 5.7 0.5 0.4 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1Goodyear India Neutral 317 - 732 1,543 1,654 6.5 7.3 24.8 31.1 12.8 10.2 2.1 1.8 17.1 19.0 0.3 0.2

Disa India Accumulate 2,947 3,353 445 176 203 22.7 22.6 182.5 209.6 16.2 14.1 8.4 6.6 51.8 47.1 2.3 1.9

Greenply Industries Buy 254 309 613 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 8.6 5.8 1.4 1.1 16.8 21.0 0.6 0.5

Hitachi Reduce 139 130 320 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 50.8 12.8 1.8 1.7 3.7 13.6 0.5 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,667 2,842 2,358 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 69.0 135.0 38.7 19.8 3.5 3.0 9.3 16.3 1.2 1.0

Styrolution ABS India* Buy 625 744 1,099 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 34.0 47.0 18.4 13.3 2.6 2.2 14.7 17.5 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 240 - 276 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 7.4 5.8 0.7 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 173 - 2,784 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 29.1 24.1 4.2 3.8 15.0 16.6 2.6 2.2

MCX Neutral 1,400 - 7,138 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.4 19.4 6.2 5.3 27.5 27.4 9.9 8.3

MRF Buy 10,165 12,884 4,311 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.9 7.1 1.5 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.4


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

22/23



zOthers

Page Industries Neutral 3,342 - 3,728 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 35.2 27.6 18.4 14.9 57.4 59.5 4.2 3.4

Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 729 821 875 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 14.3 10.7 3.8 2.8 30.3 30.2 1.0 0.8

Sintex Industries Accumulate 71 79 1,929 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 5.2 4.5 0.7 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 295 392 276 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.5 3.8 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 18 24 547 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 34 43 1,666 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 9.5 6.4 13.8 4.4 - - 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 75 108 469 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.5 8.2 1.3 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.9 1.6Tata Sponge Iron Buy 322 377 496 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.5 4.8 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Accumulate 311 335 238 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 1.3 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,274 - 16,661 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 41.0 29.7 3.2 2.9 8.1 10.3 2.3 2.1

Vesuvius India Neutral 355 - 721 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.4 12.4 2.1 1.9 15.8 16.2 1.2 1.1

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 19, 2012


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 22, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 22-10-12

23/23


market outlook 22-10-12

Documents