market outlook, 15.03.13

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Market OutlookMarch 15, 2013

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

Indian markets are expected to open marginally in the red tracking SGX Nifty,

which is currently trading lower by ~0.2%. Most of the Asian markets are trading in

the positive territory with gains in the range of 0.1% to 0.8%.US stocks moved higher on Thursday buoyed by upbeat employment data. The

strength on Wall Street came following the release of a report from the Labor

Department which showed an unexpected drop in initial jobless claims for the week

ended March 9. The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 332,000, a

decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000 and much

below the estimates of 350,000. European markets were trading higher on

Thursday, ahead of a two-day meeting of European policy makers that begins in

Brussels in which EU leaders are expected to endorse plans for structural

assessments of national budgets and discuss a bailout for Cyprus.

Meanwhile Indian markets reversed the declines in the past three trading

sessions, with the key benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty posting gains of~1%. The Indian markets rose on hopes of rate cut after WPI inflation data

showed the core inflation surprisingly fell to 3.8% in February, its lowest level

since March 2010.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,451/ 5,874 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,724 19,877 / 5,955 6,002 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,451/ 5,874 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,298 19,026 / 5,827 5,745 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,026 19,298 19,451 19,724 19,877

NIFTY 5,745 5,827 5,874 5,955 6,002

News Analysis

Nalco OFS WPI inflation at 6.8% for February 2013 GSM operators lose ~2mn subscribers in February Infosys bags order from BMW Punj Lloyd bags `314 cr offshore contractRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (March 12, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,784 2,003 781 5,840 50,192

MFs 306 447 (141) (1,001) (6,562)

FII Derivatives (March 14, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 2,408 2,362 45 9,993

Stock Futures 1,829 2,099 (270) 26,253

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)JUBL FOOD 1,258 6.3 National Alum 44 (4.4)

Unitech 30 6.1 MMTC 301 (4.4)

Reliance Comm 68 5.7 Suzlon Energy 15 (3.5)

Sun TV Network 453 5.5 MCX 897 (3.4)

Power Finance 199 4.5 Titan Inds 229 (3.1)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 1.1 207.9 19,570

Nifty 1.0 57.7 5,909

MID CAP 0.5 30.4 6,426

SMALL CAP (0.1) (5.9) 6,232

BSE HC 0.1 9.8 8,064

BSE PSU 0.9 59.6 6,928

BANKEX 2.1 280.9 13,796

AUTO 0.4 41.4 10,711

METAL 0.9 82.6 9,314

OIL & GAS 1.3 111.8 8,995

BSE IT 0.7 46.6 6,884

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 0.6 83.9 14,539NASDAQ 0.4 13.8 3,259

FTSE 0.7 47.9 6,529

Nikkei 1.2 141.5 12,381

Hang Seng 0.3 62.5 22,619

Straits Times (0.3) (9.0) 3,280

Shanghai Com 0.3 6.3 2,270

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY 0.6 0.3 $53.3

WIT 0.2 0.0 $10.0IBN 0.8 0.4 $43.1

HDB 0.7 0.3 $39.1

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,420 725

Declines 1,446 747

Unchanged 118 108

Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,267

NSE 11,867

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Nalco OFS

The government of India is divesting 10% stake in Nalco via an OFS. The OFS

comprises an offer for sale of 25.8cr equity shares of face value `5 each. Nalco

has fixed the OFS floor price at `40 per share.

Aluminium business continues to make losses: At current aluminium priceof US$2,000-2,100/tonne, we expect Nalco to make losses on its Aluminium

business. Moreover, prices of key inputs such as coal, caustic soda, CP coke,

aluminium fluoride etc continue to remain high. Hence, we expect Nalco to

operate its aluminium smelters at lower utilization levels during FY2013-14.

Coal supply issues to continue: Nalco has been facing coal supply issues,which disrupted its operations in the past few quarters. The company sources its

annual coal requirement from Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd., but the supply is not

evenly distributed. In our view, any disturbance in coal supply would increase the

companys dependence on imported or external coal (which is very expensive

compared to linkage coal), thereby negatively affecting its margins.

No clarity on timelines for production from Utkal coal block: Nalco hasbeen allotted Utkal-E coal block which has estimated reserves of 70mn tonnes.

Currently, there is no clarity on land acquisition for coal block. Although Nalco

expects to commence production from this mine by end of CY2013, our recent

experience suggests that it could take a much longer time to acquire land and sign

the mining lease with the state government.

Outlook and valuation: Nalcos earnings over the past 6-8 quarters haveremained very volatile. Although Nalco has captive bauxite mines, the cost of

aluminium production remains very high on account of high power costs. Further,there is lack of clarity over the companys future expansion plans. At the OFS

price, Nalco is trading at 7.4x FY2013E and 5.2x FY2014E EV/EBITDA, which is at

a significant premium compared to its peers. Hence, we recommend investors toavoid subscribing to Nalco OFS.

WPI inflation at 6.8% for February 2013

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for February 2013 edged up to 6.8% as

compared to 6.6% yoy in the previous month, rising by 0.6% mom largely driven

by the rise in fuel index (3.0% mom). Inflation for the month of December 2012has been revised marginally upwards to 7.3% yoy as against 7.2% earlier,

reflecting the upward revision in fuel inflation.

Inflation in primary articles moderated for the third consecutive month to 9.7% yoy

from 10.3% yoy in the previous month as inflation in both food (11.4% yoy) and

non food articles (10.1% yoy) moderated. Fuel and power inflation paced higher

to 10.5% yoy (3.0% mom) as against 7.1% yoy in the previous month. The rise in

fuel inflation was largely expected owing to realignment of diesel prices and

capping of subsidized LPG cylinders to 9 per household. Also, fuel inflation for

December 2012 has been revised upwards to 10.3% yoy as compared to the

earlier estimate of 9.4% yoy. The inflation in LPG component stood at a high of26.2% yoy (higher by 21.0% on a mom basis) for February 2013. The same was

revised considerably upwards to 19.0% yoy for December 2012 from the earlier

estimate of 4.0% yoy.

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Manufactured products inflation decelerated to a three-year low at 4.5% in

February 2013 from 4.8% yoy in the previous month and 5.8% yoy in the

corresponding month of the previous year. Even on a 3MMA basis, at 4.8% yoy it

eased within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)s comfort zone of below-5%. In

addition, core inflation ie the non-food manufacturing component of inflation,

receded for the sixth straight month to 3.8% yoy as compared to 4.1% yoy in theprevious month, reflecting the decline in commodity prices and weak pricing

power.

Despite elevated CPI inflation (largely owing to supply-side factors) and the recent

rise in WPI inflation, we still expect the RBI to ease the repo rate by 25bp in its

March 19 policy review. The RBI is likely to draw comfort from easing inflation in

manufactured products (and core inflation in particular), which reflect that

demand-side inflationary pressures are in check.

In the growth-inflation dynamics, the RBI has recently adopted a more growth-

supportive policy stance in view of the prolonged slowdown in economic growth.Real GDP growth is at a decade low of 4.5% yoy in 3QFY2013 and the CSO

estimates a modest 5.0% yoy growth for FY2013, dampened by moderation in

consumption, investment and export growth. Further, efforts to curtail the fiscal

deficit (at 5.2% of GDP in FY2013 and 4.8% of GDP in FY2014) in the budget are

also likely to support a more accommodating monetary policy stance. But at the

same time, the current account deficit (at 4.6% of GDP in the first half of FY2013)

is expected to widen to a record-high in FY2013 and it is likely to restrict the

quantum of policy easing going forward.

GSM operators lose ~2mn subscribers in February

The GSM operators lost 1.97mn subscribers in February 2012, after a modest user

addition during the previous month, taking its total base to 655.59mn. This is a

0.30% fall from previous month, according to data by Cellular Operators

Association of India (COAI). The GSM operators added 0.4mn users in January

2013, arresting losses of previous two months. Uninor, which closed down

operations in Mumbai on February 16, lost 8.35mn subscribers during the month.

The company, which had a total of 31.77mn users, closed down operations

following the Supreme Court order that operators who did not win spectrum in the

previous auction should close down services. Aircel lost 698,506 users during the

month, dragging its customer base to 60.87mn. Videocon and MTNL were the

other operators to record subscriber base erosion, with the companies losing

196,935 and 203,878, respectively. Bharti Airtel continued to the countrys

leading operator by subscribers, with the company garnering a total of 186.62mn

users. It added 2.43mn subscribers, increasing its market share to 28.47% during

the reporting month. Vodafone India added 2.19mn users taking its total user

base to 149.89mn, while Idea Cellular added 2.86mn subscribers increasing its

subscriber base to 119.26mn. We maintain our Neutral rating on the overalltelecom sector.

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Infosys bags order from BMW

Infosys has bagged an order from German car-maker BMW group. The five year

order will cover services such as maintenance and operations of web

infrastructure, content management, SAP basis operations, internal IT system,

content management and business intelligence systems. The financial terms of theorder were not revealed. To support this order, Infosys will open a new delivery

center in Munich which will form an integral part of a global service delivery team

from Infosys. Owing to the recent run up in stock price, we maintain our Neutralrating on the stock.

Punj Lloyd bags `314 cr offshore contract

Punj Lloyd has bagged a contract worth `314cr ($57.75 mn) from Al-Khafji Joint

Operations for an offshore project in Al-Khafji, Saudi Arabia. The scope of the

project includes installation of a new crude transmission pipeline as a replacementfor the existing transmission line. We continue to maintain our Neutral rating onthe stock.

Economic and Political News

Cutting Plan spending a compulsion: Chidambaram It's up to RBI to decide on policy rate cut: Rajan Pak to give MFN status to India by June-July: Commerce secretary

Corporate News

CERC asks RPower to meet states in 15 days to resolve tariff issue Rajasthan Government, HPCL tie-up for `37,230cr refinery JSW steel to raise US$600mn from overseas markets in next quarter Axis Bank to probe money laundering allegationsSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

March 15, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Feb 2.00 --

6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Feb -- 0.50

6:45PM US Industrial Production % Feb (0.10) 0.30

March 19, 2013 6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Feb 890.00 --

6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Feb 904.00 --

3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Feb 2.70 --

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Mar 19 7.75 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Mar 19 4.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Mar 19 6.75 --

March 20, 2013 8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Mar A (23.60) --

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Feb (12.50) --

10:00PM US FOMC rate decision % Mar 20 0.25 --

March 21, 2013 2:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Mar A 54.70 --

2:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Mar A 50.30 --

7:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Feb 4.92 --

March 26, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Mar 69.60 --

7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Feb 437.00 --

March 27, 2013 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q F 0.30 --

March 28, 2013 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Mar (3.00) --

6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q T 0.10 --

April 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Mar 50.10 --

April 2, 2013 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Mar 47.90 --

April 15, 2013 7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q 7.90 --

May 15, 2013 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q A (0.60) --11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 1Q P 0.10 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

March 15, 2013

Market Outlook

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

5.7

9.0

7.5

11.2

8.5

7.68.2

9.2

7.5

6.56.0

5.3 5.5 5.34.5

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)

4.3

(2.8)

(1.3)

2.5

(2.0)

(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.4

(0.8) (0.5)

2.4

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Feb

-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

(%)

7.7 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.58.0 8.1

7.3 7.2 7.36.6 6.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

No-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(30.0)

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

30.0

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

7.75

6.75

4.00

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

8.50

9.50

Mar-12

Apr-12

Ma-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 127 - 2,469 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 18.1 15.7 3.9 3.3 22.6 22.5 1.7 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 126 170 5,575 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.4 7.4 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 271 323 4,623 2,983 3,477 16.1 16.1 18.5 21.6 14.6 12.6 4.2 3.2 32.9 29.1 1.5 1.3

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 88 97 4,425 13,066 14,503 11.5 11.8 13.0 14.5 6.8 6.1 1.3 1.1 21.0 19.4 0.5 0.5

Ashok Leyland Buy 23 28 6,053 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 15.4 10.2 2.0 1.9 9.3 13.4 0.5 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 294 - 444 934 1,103 10.2 10.7 24.5 34.3 12.0 8.6 1.5 1.4 13.2 16.9 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,855 - 53,665 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 17.2 14.7 7.1 5.6 45.8 42.8 2.3 1.9

Bharat Forge Accumulate 227 242 5,287 5,973 6,707 14.4 15.2 13.4 18.6 17.0 12.2 2.2 2.0 13.6 16.9 1.0 0.8

Bosch India* Neutral 8,717 - 27,372 9,717 11,092 16.2 17.0 354.7 423.3 24.6 20.6 4.2 3.6 17.2 17.5 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 98 163 334 4,822 5,403 8.2 8.3 29.8 40.8 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 14.5 17.0 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 129 - 10,974 6,016 7,026 12.7 14.4 5.8 7.8 22.1 16.5 3.3 2.8 15.4 18.2 1.5 1.2

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,514 - 2,516 1,619 1,879 16.0 16.6 108.6 130.7 13.9 11.6 2.4 2.0 18.8 19.1 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,669 1,923 33,324 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 15.8 13.9 6.4 5.1 44.3 41.0 1.1 0.9

JK Tyre Buy 104 165 428 7,169 7,929 6.9 7.1 40.4 41.3 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.4 20.5 18.0 0.4 0.3

Mahindra and MahindraAccumulate 914 1,019 56,130 40,060 46,301 11.5 11.7 55.3 64.3 16.5 14.2 3.7 3.1 24.5 23.8 1.2 1.0

Maruti Accumulate 1,420 1,563 41,038 43,381 52,411 7.5 8.9 65.6 97.7 21.7 14.5 2.4 2.1 11.8 15.6 0.8 0.6

Motherson Sumi Neutral 205 - 12,031 25,769 29,010 7.1 7.5 10.2 13.1 20.1 15.7 5.1 4.0 28.1 28.3 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 25 35 152 1,296 1,476 9.8 9.9 3.4 5.0 7.6 5.0 0.5 0.5 7.2 10.2 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 301 326 80,219 184,201 209,642 12.4 13.5 28.0 36.3 10.7 8.3 2.4 1.9 24.6 25.4 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 37 47 1,755 7,019 7,827 6.0 6.3 4.3 5.3 8.7 7.0 1.4 1.2 16.4 18.0 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 586 487 12,427 8,073 9,052 5.5 7.2 11.3 17.4 52.1 33.7 4.5 4.1 8.9 12.8 1.5 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 207 - 1,492 3,412 4,104 13.0 11.6 24.6 26.2 8.4 7.9 1.2 1.1 30.7 25.7 0.8 0.7

BHEL Neutral 199 - 48,658 47,801 43,757 18.0 17.1 24.1 20.8 8.3 9.6 2.4 2.1 32.9 23.6 0.9 1.0

Blue Star Buy 169 238 1,520 2,748 2,896 4.4 5.6 6.8 9.3 24.9 18.2 3.4 3.0 14.5 17.6 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 99 129 6,328 12,136 13,790 3.8 6.3 3.3 6.9 29.9 14.4 1.7 1.6 5.8 11.5 0.5 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 34 49 276 2,802 3,074 9.5 9.8 7.7 10.9 4.4 3.1 0.4 0.4 9.6 12.1 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 54 75 1,377 6,909 7,723 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.4 10.0 6.3 1.2 1.0 17.0 22.8 0.3 0.3

LMW Neutral 2,013 - 2,267 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.0 12.1 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.3

Thermax Neutral 589 - 7,023 5,529 5,798 9.0 9.6 27.1 30.3 21.7 19.5 3.8 3.3 18.6 18.2 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 15, 2013

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Cement

ACC Neutral 1,259 - 23,640 11,358 12,366 19.9 19.6 75.1 74.9 16.8 16.8 3.2 2.9 19.4 18.1 1.8 1.6

Ambuja Cements Neutral 190 - 29,369 9,730 11,221 25.6 25.0 10.2 11.3 18.6 16.8 3.3 3.1 18.7 19.0 2.6 2.1

India Cements Neutral 85 - 2,616 4,439 4,789 16.7 17.2 6.8 9.1 12.5 9.4 0.7 0.7 6.0 7.7 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 120 143 1,417 2,119 2,478 22.9 22.3 20.3 22.8 5.9 5.3 1.0 0.9 18.0 17.7 0.8 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 253 - 6,031 3,960 4,270 27.4 27.0 18.6 21.1 13.7 12.0 2.5 2.1 19.7 18.9 2.2 1.9

Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,228 - 14,728 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 14.7 12.7 4.1 3.2 31.7 28.4 2.1 1.7

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,907 - 52,291 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 19.1 16.3 3.5 2.9 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 202 268 1,064 20,466 23,017 22.5 22.5 24.4 27.0 8.3 7.5 1.0 0.9 12.3 12.1 0.2 0.2

Consolidated Co Neutral 11 - 198 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 11.7 6.9 0.3 0.3 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 124 164 4,133 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.4 7.0 1.3 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.5

ITNL Accumulate 201 225 3,896 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.6 6.9 1.2 1.1 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Buy 26 35 783 3,773 6,706 6.9 8.4 (3.9) 2.9 (6.6) 8.9 0.4 0.4 (5.4) 4.1 0.9 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 77 97 16,976 14,243 16,382 26.2 26.1 3.2 4.3 23.9 17.6 1.3 1.2 5.4 7.0 2.6 2.4

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,523 1,788 93,726 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 21.2 17.9 3.3 2.9 14.5 15.2 1.7 1.5

Nagarjuna Const. Accumulate 39 44 993 5,863 6,576 8.1 8.2 3.1 4.1 12.6 9.5 0.4 0.4 3.2 4.2 0.6 0.5

Punj Lloyd Neutral 47 - 1,566 11,892 13,116 10.2 10.2 (0.4) 3.0 (110.6) 15.9 0.5 0.5 3.8 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 116 157 1,751 1,642 2,642 9.7 10.1 3.2 7.2 36.2 16.0 2.1 1.9 6.0 12.1 1.3 0.9

Simplex Infra Buy 135 197 668 6,026 7,135 9.1 9.3 14.1 24.6 9.6 5.5 0.5 0.5 5.6 9.2 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 31 58 231 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 12.9 14.8 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.3 12.1 12.5 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Buy 142 160 7,098 6,509 7,264 2.7 2.8 28.2 33.5 5.0 4.2 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.7 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 101 - 5,627 4,795 5,475 3.0 3.0 21.8 21.9 4.6 4.6 0.8 0.7 15.4 13.8 - -Axis Bank Buy 1,354 1,678 63,328 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 11.4 9.7 2.1 1.8 20.3 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 725 850 29,804 14,889 17,393 2.5 2.6 108.2 134.0 6.7 5.4 1.0 0.9 15.3 16.7 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 321 350 18,415 12,793 14,823 2.3 2.4 49.5 65.1 6.5 4.9 0.9 0.8 13.6 16.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 52 56 3,087 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.2 16.9 - -

Canara Bank Accumulate 435 463 19,264 10,783 12,000 2.1 2.3 64.8 82.2 6.7 5.3 0.9 0.8 13.2 15.0 - -

Central Bank Neutral 73 - 5,381 7,158 8,217 2.4 2.6 13.1 20.1 5.6 3.6 0.8 0.7 10.3 14.3 - -

Corporation Bank Buy 399 465 5,917 4,919 5,634 2.1 2.2 96.7 99.9 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.3 14.9 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 96 107 3,352 3,090 3,462 2.7 2.7 25.6 24.6 3.7 3.9 0.7 0.6 19.2 15.9 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 15, 2013

7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 15.03.13

9/14



Financials

Federal Bank Accumulate 492 536 8,407 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.0 9.6 1.3 1.2 13.9 13.1 - -

HDFC Neutral 814 - 125,644 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 25.3 21.1 5.2 4.6 35.4 32.6 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 650 - 154,287 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 22.7 18.0 4.3 3.7 20.7 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,111 1,302 127,739 22,317 26,217 2.9 3.0 72.0 84.6 15.4 13.1 2.0 1.8 14.9 15.9 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 90 106 11,512 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 5.9 4.0 0.6 0.6 10.7 14.1 - -

Indian Bank Buy 177 208 7,626 5,716 6,362 3.2 3.2 37.7 41.1 4.7 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.9 16.2 - -

IOB Buy 71 85 5,695 7,231 8,369 2.4 2.5 10.2 20.2 7.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 7.4 13.4 - -J & K Bank Accumulate 1,314 1,406 6,370 2,784 2,932 3.7 3.7 229.2 199.6 5.7 6.6 1.3 1.1 24.6 18.2 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 244 257 12,336 1,722 2,080 2.2 2.2 19.9 24.6 12.3 9.9 1.9 1.7 16.6 17.9 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 279 314 8,133 6,360 7,004 2.6 2.8 48.1 59.4 5.8 4.7 0.7 0.6 12.1 13.5 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 798 957 27,050 19,202 22,040 3.2 3.4 146.8 167.9 5.4 4.8 1.0 0.8 17.6 17.5 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 25 30 3,346 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 7.2 6.2 1.2 1.0 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Buy 2,256 2,514 151,378 60,594 70,439 3.3 3.3 221.9 257.4 10.2 8.8 1.7 1.5 17.4 17.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Accumulate 124 135 7,443 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 32.0 27.9 3.9 4.4 0.8 0.7 22.0 16.5 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 61 - 4,048 5,388 6,262 2.4 2.6 9.0 14.9 6.8 4.1 0.9 0.7 9.1 13.8 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 232 256 12,764 10,006 11,558 2.8 2.8 36.4 47.0 6.4 4.9 0.9 0.8 14.6 16.6 - -

United Bank Buy 63 75 2,276 3,549 3,814 2.5 2.7 12.0 21.4 5.2 2.9 0.5 0.5 10.1 16.3 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 52 - 2,592 2,342 2,763 1.9 2.1 8.0 10.9 6.5 4.8 0.7 0.6 10.1 12.6 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 485 526 17,384 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 13.4 11.4 3.0 2.4 24.6 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,891 - 46,911 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 40.0 33.3 13.5 10.6 37.7 35.7 4.0 3.4

Britannia Neutral 536 - 6,403 5,580 6,417 4.8 5.0 18.1 21.7 29.6 24.7 10.7 8.6 38.7 38.7 1.1 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,318 - 17,918 3,120 3,588 20.3 21.1 38.4 45.1 34.4 29.3 31.9 25.6 104.6 97.0 5.5 4.8

Dabur India Neutral 133 - 23,233 6,196 7,183 16.3 16.8 4.5 5.5 29.6 24.3 12.3 9.5 43.4 44.0 3.8 3.2

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,184 - 17,595 3,084 3,617 15.2 16.3 103.9 123.0 40.3 34.0 12.9 10.6 34.9 34.3 5.3 4.6

Godrej Consumer Neutral 766 - 26,079 6,386 7,743 15.7 17.0 20.8 27.1 36.8 28.3 7.9 6.5 23.7 26.4 4.3 3.5

HUL Neutral 456 - 98,547 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 30.2 26.9 24.0 17.1 85.7 74.3 3.6 3.1

ITC Neutral 302 - 238,462 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 32.3 27.2 10.7 8.9 35.9 35.7 7.8 6.6

Marico Neutral 217 - 13,969 4,747 5,402 13.6 13.6 6.3 7.8 34.2 27.7 7.0 5.7 26.0 22.6 3.0 2.5

Nestle* Neutral 4,703 - 45,348 8,302 9,739 22.0 21.5 110.7 130.8 42.5 36.0 25.2 18.1 69.5 58.6 5.5 4.5


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 15, 2013

7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 15.03.13

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FMCG

Tata Global Accumulate 134 145 8,308 7,272 7,998 9.1 9.9 6.9 8.1 19.6 16.7 2.1 2.0 8.9 9.7 1.1 0.9

IT

HCL Tech^ Neutral 791 - 55,000 25,325 28,476 21.7 20.7 51.0 52.8 15.5 15.0 4.1 3.4 26.8 22.9 2.0 1.8

Hexaware* Buy 89 113 2,644 1,948 2,136 20.9 18.3 10.9 10.1 8.2 8.8 2.2 1.8 27.2 21.0 1.1 0.9

Infosys Neutral 2,875 - 165,087 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.7 16.6 4.2 3.5 23.5 21.3 3.4 3.0

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 170 184 1,897 1,881 1,987 17.9 17.4 18.5 19.4 9.2 8.7 1.4 1.2 14.8 13.6 0.7 0.5

KPIT Cummins Buy 105 134 2,025 2,234 2,477 15.8 15.2 10.9 12.8 9.6 8.2 2.1 1.6 22.2 20.6 0.9 0.7Mahindra Satyam Neutral 129 - 15,197 7,711 8,683 21.6 20.3 8.7 11.3 14.8 11.4 3.5 2.7 30.6 23.7 1.6 1.3

Mindtree Neutral 858 - 3,563 2,357 2,580 21.0 19.3 84.4 86.8 10.2 9.9 2.7 2.1 26.8 21.7 1.2 1.0

Mphasis& Neutral 380 - 7,988 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.7 10.1 1.6 1.4 14.7 13.5 1.0 0.8

NIIT Buy 23 36 377 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 5.5 3.7 0.6 0.5 10.3 14.1 0.2 0.1

Persistent Neutral 575 - 2,300 1,297 1,433 25.6 24.1 46.5 54.0 12.4 10.7 2.3 1.9 18.5 18.0 1.4 1.2

TCS Reduce 1,568 1,465 306,863 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 21.9 19.8 7.3 5.9 33.2 29.7 4.6 4.0

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,105 1,205 14,139 6,789 7,609 21.0 19.6 95.8 110.7 11.5 10.0 2.8 2.2 24.3 22.3 2.1 1.8

Wipro Neutral 438 - 107,982 43,514 47,304 20.1 19.4 26.6 27.7 16.5 15.9 3.2 2.8 19.7 17.9 2.1 1.9

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 247 276 4,520 1,583 1,787 23.9 25.4 11.9 14.5 20.8 17.0 4.1 3.5 21.4 22.4 2.7 2.4

HT Media Accumulate 104 113 2,450 2,061 2,205 14.0 15.1 6.6 7.9 15.7 13.3 1.5 1.4 10.3 11.0 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Buy 99 125 3,145 1,511 1,698 23.2 23.4 6.4 7.3 15.5 13.6 3.8 3.4 25.9 26.6 2.3 2.0

PVR Neutral 294 - 1,165 820 1,307 17.3 17.3 11.2 17.8 26.4 16.5 1.2 1.1 9.7 10.8 1.4 0.9

Sun TV Network Neutral 450 - 17,734 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 25.6 23.6 6.2 5.6 25.8 25.2 8.2 7.1

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 462 - 10,475 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.7 8.3 1.1 1.0 11.4 12.6 3.1 2.4Coal India Buy 319 368 201,618 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 13.2 12.0 3.9 3.2 33.1 29.1 2.0 1.8

Electrosteel Castings Buy 19 28 671 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 11.0 7.5 0.4 0.1 3.6 5.1 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Buy 120 149 50,873 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 8.2 7.4 1.6 1.4 21.1 19.8 2.3 1.6

Hindalco Neutral 96 - 18,390 80,205 88,987 9.0 9.2 13.4 13.8 7.2 7.0 0.6 0.5 7.9 7.6 0.6 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 708 - 15,794 39,072 40,493 16.5 18.2 82.4 90.3 8.6 7.8 0.9 0.8 10.7 10.7 0.8 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 231 246 3,882 933 954 46.9 45.5 25.8 26.1 8.9 8.9 1.4 1.3 16.7 15.1 1.7 1.6

Monnet Ispat Buy 238 318 1,516 2,287 2,883 21.8 21.8 35.3 40.7 6.8 5.8 0.6 0.6 9.6 10.2 1.8 1.4

Nalco Neutral 44 - 11,404 6,630 8,357 11.4 14.5 2.1 3.3 20.8 13.6 1.0 0.9 4.6 6.9 1.1 1.0

NMDC Buy 146 181 57,766 9,674 11,536 75.2 76.6 16.0 18.6 9.1 7.8 2.0 1.7 23.6 23.0 3.7 2.9


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 15, 2013

7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 15.03.13

11/14



Metals & Mining

SAIL Neutral 71 - 29,141 43,438 56,199 12.0 12.2 6.5 8.5 10.8 8.3 0.7 0.7 6.6 8.2 0.9 0.7

Sesa Goa Accumulate 165 183 14,353 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 5.6 5.2 0.9 0.8 16.3 15.4 7.4 4.6

Sterlite Inds Accumulate 99 110 33,338 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 5.9 5.5 0.7 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 357 443 34,682 142,732 146,575 7.4 9.9 7.2 34.7 49.7 10.3 0.8 0.7 1.6 7.5 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 113 148 406 1,442 1,494 19.0 19.1 29.2 31.7 3.9 3.6 0.5 0.4 12.3 12.0 0.6 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 37 52 495 2,512 2,816 12.4 13.7 10.0 12.6 3.7 2.9 0.2 0.2 7.2 8.4 0.5 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat Buy 92 112 291 2,367 2,425 14.2 13.7 33.3 33.5 2.8 2.7 0.3 0.3 12.9 11.2 0.6 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 296 383 56,503 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 4.9 5.4 1.0 0.9 21.9 17.0 2.4 2.1

GAIL Neutral 333 - 42,209 48,077 55,815 15.3 15.3 34.9 35.9 9.5 9.3 1.7 1.5 19.0 17.0 0.6 0.5

ONGC Accumulate 320 357 273,818 144,089 158,065 32.8 34.7 28.7 34.4 11.2 9.3 1.8 1.6 17.0 18.3 1.6 1.4

Reliance Industries Neutral 861 - 277,875 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 12.6 12.0 1.4 1.2 12.4 11.8 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 276 - 3,536 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 11.6 10.7 3.2 2.8 29.6 28.2 0.8 0.8

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 269 - 3,762 3,365 3,700 22.8 23.4 25.3 26.6 10.6 10.1 2.5 2.1 26.0 22.6 1.2 1.1

Petronet LNG Buy 148 179 11,066 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 9.6 9.5 2.5 2.1 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 65 - 3,672 1,079 983 91.8 91.9 8.8 7.8 7.5 8.3 1.2 1.1 17.8 14.1 3.1 3.4

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Reduce 102 95 1,929 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 13.8 10.8 3.8 2.9 30.7 30.2 1.4 1.2

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 164 208 4,785 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 13.3 11.7 1.7 1.5 18.8 17.8 1.4 1.2

Aventis* Neutral 2,466 - 5,678 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 29.7 28.1 4.7 3.7 16.3 14.8 3.5 3.0

Cadila Hea lthcare Accumulate 754 817 15,436 6,148 7,386 15.3 18.0 24.6 39.5 30.7 19.1 5.8 4.6 18.4 25.1 2.9 2.4

Cipla Accumulate 385 419 30,941 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 19.1 17.8 3.4 2.9 19.4 17.6 3.6 3.1

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,818 - 30,856 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 21.7 19.6 4.5 3.8 22.4 20.8 3.2 2.8

Dishman Pharma Buy 77 155 619 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 12.1 15.5 6.3 5.0 0.6 0.6 10.0 11.6 1.2 1.0

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,123 - 17,986 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.9 25.8 8.1 7.2 20.1 26.3 6.0 5.2

Indoco Remedies Buy 65 78 594 642 784 14.2 15.2 5.7 7.8 11.3 8.3 1.4 1.2 12.9 16.4 1.1 1.0

Ipca labs Accumulate 504 559 6,358 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.9 13.5 4.0 3.2 26.7 26.4 2.4 2.0

Lupin Accumulate 600 655 26,836 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 23.0 19.3 5.3 4.3 25.8 24.7 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 433 - 18,304 12,253 11,400 14.1 12.5 31.2 21.6 13.9 20.0 4.5 3.8 37.9 20.6 1.4 1.4

Sun Pharma Neutral 830 - 85,821 10,111 12,563 42.6 42.6 28.9 29.8 28.7 27.9 5.8 4.9 22.3 19.2 7.9 6.2

Power

GIPCL Neutral 76 - 1,146 1,502 1,535 32.1 31.9 11.4 12.5 6.7 6.1 0.8 0.7 7.6 11.9 1.2 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

March 15, 2013

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Power

NTPC Accumulate 147 163 121,043 72,809 81,951 23.4 24.1 12.2 13.6 12.0 10.8 1.5 1.4 12.2 12.5 2.3 2.2

Real Estate

DLF Neutral 285 - 48,362 7,953 9,699 34.7 37.0 4.4 6.0 65.2 47.7 1.9 1.8 3.1 3.8 8.1 6.3

MLIFE Accumulate 398 446 1,624 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 12.8 11.0 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Accumulate 315 350 119,622 80,521 87,160 30.5 30.5 6.4 10.4 49.3 30.3 2.3 2.1 4.6 7.0 2.4 2.1

Idea Cellular Neutral 114 - 37,807 22,087 23,927 26.6 27.7 2.9 3.9 39.0 29.2 2.7 2.5 6.9 8.4 2.3 2.1Rcom Neutral 68 - 14,066 21,087 22,067 31.8 31.9 2.6 4.0 26.0 17.0 0.4 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.2

zOthers

Abbott India Buy 1,349 1,634 2,867 1,926 2,152 13.1 13.5 79.0 90.8 17.1 14.9 3.7 3.1 23.7 22.8 1.3 1.1

Bajaj Electricals Buy 174 217 1,735 3,450 3,929 4.5 7.4 10.0 15.5 17.4 11.2 2.3 2.0 13.0 17.4 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 457 495 578 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 13.2 10.1 3.2 2.5 27.7 27.8 1.3 1.0

Cravatex Buy 350 545 90 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 9.3 7.7 2.2 1.8 23.7 22.7 0.4 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 902 - 6,333 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 26.3 22.6 11.9 9.5 50.9 46.9 6.1 5.2

Finolex Cables Buy 46 61 710 2,268 2,559 9.5 10.0 9.0 10.1 5.2 4.6 0.8 0.7 14.8 14.6 0.3 0.2

Force Motors Buy 390 550 508 2,027 2,299 4.6 5.1 35.3 50.0 11.0 7.8 0.4 0.4 3.9 5.3 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India Accumulate 282 304 651 1,559 1,676 7.1 7.4 27.5 30.5 10.3 9.3 1.6 1.5 16.9 16.7 0.2 0.2

Greenply Industries Sell 384 309 927 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 13.0 8.7 2.1 1.7 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.6

Hitachi Neutral 131 - 360 905 1,025 4.8 6.0 7.7 12.4 17.0 10.6 1.6 1.4 9.9 14.4 0.5 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,514 2,842 2,223 2,117 2,491 8.1 7.8 140.5 157.9 17.9 15.9 2.7 2.3 16.3 15.8 1.0 0.8

Styrolution ABS India* Buy 600 744 1,055 1,069 1,223 9.7 9.7 40.0 46.5 15.0 12.9 2.1 1.9 15.1 15.3 1.0 0.8

ITD Cementation Buy 180 239 207 1,455 1,630 12.0 12.1 23.2 31.2 7.8 5.8 0.5 0.5 6.5 8.1 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 166 - 2,671 816 979 14.5 14.9 5.2 6.0 32.1 27.5 3.7 3.4 8.8 10.2 3.5 2.9MCX Buy 897 1,440 4,576 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 14.4 12.5 4.0 3.4 27.5 27.4 5.6 4.5

MRF Accumulate 12,949 14,331 5,492 12,422 13,767 12.9 12.8 1,661.0 1,791.4 7.8 7.2 1.6 1.3 22.0 19.4 0.6 0.5

Page Industries Neutral 3,333 - 3,717 856 1,047 19.1 19.6 101.2 127.3 33.0 26.2 16.9 12.5 58.5 54.9 4.4 3.6

Relaxo Footwears Buy 651 887 782 989 1,148 10.7 11.7 41.8 55.5 15.6 11.8 3.5 2.7 25.5 26.3 1.0 0.8

Sintex Industries Buy 58 79 1,800 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 277 332 259 1,048 1,157 11.3 12.0 58.7 66.5 4.7 4.2 0.8 0.7 18.9 18.3 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 10 - 293 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 35 43 1,686 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 9.6 6.5 14.0 4.4 - - 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 66 108 413 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.3 7.2 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.4


Market Outlook

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March 15, 2013

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13/14



zOthers

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 310 379 477 782 818 16.5 17.0 61.8 65.4 5.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 15.7 14.7 0.3 0.2

TTK Healthcare Buy 441 655 342 393 439 5.9 6.7 21.1 26.7 20.9 16.5 17.5 19.1 0.7 0.6

TVS Srichakra Buy 192 276 147 1,461 1,591 5.6 7.1 6.9 39.4 27.8 4.9 1.1 0.9 3.8 20.6 0.3 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,961 - 25,642 10,473 11,939 15.0 15.8 30.4 56.9 64.5 34.5 4.9 3.1 10.8 12.3 3.1 2.4

Vesuvius India Accumulate 324 355 657 591 623 17.5 17.2 29.0 29.6 11.2 10.9 1.7 1.5 16.0 14.5 0.9 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 14, 2013


Market Outlook

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March 15, 2013

7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 15.03.13

14/14


market outlook, 15.03.13

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