market opportunities for irish dairy 2025 · 2019-06-25 · market opportunities for irish dairy...

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014

Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19th November, 2014

Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin


Ireland IrelandIreland

The Emerald Isle

Hort & Cereals €225 m

Seafood €520 m

Prepared Foods €967 m

Beverages€1,250 m

Dairy €3,642 m

Meat & Livestock €3,305 m

37%

33%

Dairy exports to grow by €1.8 billion over the next five years (based on 2013 prices & product mix)

And account for over 45% of total food & drink exports (based on 2013 non-dairy volumes and prices)

Hort & Cereals€€225 m 225 m

Seafood€520 m

Prepared FoodsPrepared Foods€967 m

BeveragesBeverages€1,250 m 1,250 m

Dairy€3,642 m

Meat & Livestock€3,305 m

37%

33%


Dairy Exports are more internationally oriented….. Distribution by region 2013 (%) Distribution by region 2013 (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

United Kingdom Other EU Int. Markets

42

32 26

32 29

39

Food & Drink Dairy

Irish dairy products were exported to more than 140 countries in 2013


The industry has been reaching out beyond Europe Distribution of Dairy Exports 2000 to 2013 (%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

UK Continental EU International Markets


Dairy Exports to International Markets Diversified

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other

US

ME

Africa

Asia


Irish Dairy Exports to China growing rapidly

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other Whey Butter & cheese Milk Powders IMF

€m


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ions

3 billion

7.3 billion 6 billion

5 billion 4 billion

9 billion

World Population 1950 - 2050

7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion54% in cities

66% in cities

30% in cities Source: UN World Population Prospects; the 2012 revision

What’s Driving Global Demand for Food……

8.1 billion 7.3 billion7.3 billion

8.1 billion8.1 billion8.1 billion8.1 billion8.1 billion58% in cities


100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0%0%0%0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China

India

Other Asia

20%20%20%20% Japan

United States

40%40%40%40%

30%30%EU

Others

Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 2000-2050

Source: OECD Working Paper

100%100%100%100%100%

90%

80%80%80%80%80%

90%90%90%90%90% “3 billion consumers will join the middle classes

from 2010 to 2030”

Chinachanging lifestyles,

shifting dietary habits”

India and China Make Waves in the Global Middle Class

Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 20002025

Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 2000

“3 billion consumers “3 billion consumers 2015

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Source: UN World Population Statistics, 2012

More than three of every four people live in Asia or Africa %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Asia Africa Europe Latin America

North America

Oceania

59

18

9 9 5 1

2010 2015 2025

Africa +302m

Asia +364m

Latin America +61m North America +29m

From 2015 to 2025 population will grow by 760m


0

10

20

30

World Asia Europe North America

Africa

15 15

27 25

6

2010 2015 2025

Source: UN Population Division 2012

Global population continues to grow older % of population aged over 60

…in Europe, by 2025 more than 200 million people will be over 60 …


Ending the War on Fat

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bSE5UV6WY90/U5qHqKRDN3I/AAAAAAAAHXU/ucH9jmCxwGY/s1600/TimeEatButter.jpg


“By 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stress conditions”.

UN

Agriculture uses 70% of the world’s freshwater

“By 2025, two

Food for Fuel: 40% of US corn used for ethanol”

Climate Change

“The most frequent and

significant factor causing volatility is unpredictable

weather conditions”. FAO/OECD Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020

Supply Challenges


Source: OECD & FAO Secretariats

Emerging markets driving global demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

Beef Pigmeat Poultry Sheepmeat Butter Cheese WMP SMP Fish

World Developing OECD

Global demand for livestock & fish products (% Ch 2023 vs. 2011-2013 average)

Beef Pigmeat Poultry Sheepmeat Fish


North America

1.4%

Latin America And Caribbean

1.9%

Africa 3.3%

Saudi Arabia

3.6%

Europe

0.4% Japan 0.4%

China 3%

India 3.7% SE Asia

2.7% Oceania

1.2%

Russia

0.7%

Global Consumption of Dairy Products to 2023 Annual consumption to grow by 2.4%

Annual Increase 2013-2023

Source: OECD FAO


Latin America And Caribbean

21.1%

Africa 38.5%

Saudi Arabia

41.9%

China 33%

India 43.9% SE Asia

30% 30%

ChinaNorth America

15% Europe

4.1% Japan 3.9%

Oceania

12.7%

Russia

7.4%

Global Consumption of Dairy Products to 2023 Total consumption to grow by 27%

Total Increase 2013-2023

Source: OECD FAO


0 50 100 150 200

Canada Mexico

Australia Ukraine

Argentina Turkey

New Zealand Brazil

Russia Pakistan

China US

India Europe

2023 2011 - 13

M tns

Global Milk Production to 2023

Source: OECD FAO

Annual growth down from

2.2% to 1.9%

78% of growth in developing

countries


Butter +0.7% NZ the primary source

47% market share

WMP +1.7%pa NZ share to rise to 57%

SMP +2.5% pa US largest source at 34% by 2023

World trade in dairy products to 2023 EU, US, NZ and Australia account for almost 80% of exports

Cheese +2.4% pa EU to account for

39% by 2023

Annual, global import growth and export market share


The Importance of China

World’s largest dairy importer

Declining self-sufficiency

Per capita consumption less than 1/3rd world average

Rising import demand

Butter +24%, Cheese +228%, SMP + 86%, WMP + 44% Growth to 2023

World’s largest dairy importerdairy importer

Declining self-self-self sufficiencysufficiency

Per capita consumption less than 1/3rdrd world average

Rising import demand

Butter +24%, Cheese +228%, SMP + 86%, WMP + 44%Growth to 2023

0

50

100

150

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thou

sand

s MT Liquid

Milk Imports


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Source: OECD FAO

World Dairy Prices to 2023

Butter

Cheese

SMP WMP

2014

$/ton

ne


Customer priorities…..sourcing from Ireland


Customer priorities…..Europe


Customer priorities…..Saudi Arabia


Yili

Feihe

Wandashan

Customer priorities…..China


Customer priorities…..sourcing from Ireland

long-term agreements


Energy Emissions Water

Biodiversity Socio-economic data

Traceability Welfare

Environment Animal Health

Food Safety


South Korea South Korea Indonesia

Growing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Vietnam Senegal

Consumer insights through ethnography in dairy markets


300+ hours in-field

3 Cities Shanghai

Beijing Chengdu

48 home visits

36 store visits

14 brand clinics

Consumer insights through ethnography in dairy markets


Components of S & P 500 Market Value

Intangible Assets Tangible Assets

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1975 1985 1995 2005 2010

83 68

32 20 20

17 32

68 80 80

Source: Ocean Tomo


AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009


Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014

Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19th November, 2014

Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin

market opportunities for irish dairy 2025 · 2019-06-25 · market opportunities for irish dairy...

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