market mantra 181011

8/2/2019 Market Mantra 181011

1/19

October 18 , 2011

Indian market % change

Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD

Sensex 17,025 (0.3) (8.0) (17.0)

Nifty 5,118 (0.3) (8.1) (16.6)

BSE 100 2,084 (0.3) (9.6) (17.7)

BSE 200 6,553 (0.2) (9.7) (17.7)

CNX Midcap 7,140 0.1 (12.9) (19.4)BSE Smallcap 6,923 0.2 (17.5) (28.4)

Developed market % change


Dow Jones 11,397 (2.1) (8.0) (1.6)

Nasdaq 2,615 (2.0) (5.4) (1.4)

S&P 500 1,201 (1.9) (8.0) (4.5)

FTSE 5,437 (0.5) (5.5) (7.9)

CAC 3,166 (1.6) (13.3) (16.8)

DAX 5,859 (1.8) (17.6) (15.3)

Hang Seng* 18,218 (3.5) (16.4) (20.9)

Nikkei* 8,743 (1.5) (12.4) (14.5)

S&P/ASX200* 4,193 (1.9) (6.2) (11.6)* Markets are open

Emerging market % changeLast close 1 day 3 mth YTD

Shanghai Comp 2,404 (1.5) (14.6) (14.4)

Brazil Bovespa 53,911 (2.0) (8.4) (22.2)

Mexico Bolsa 34,126 (2.1) (4.6) (11.5)

Kospi* 1,837 (1.5) (13.8) (10.4)

Micex 1,403 (2.0) (16.9) (16.9)

Taiwan* 7,342 (1.6) (14.0) (18.2)

Straits* 2,724 (2.0) (11.5) (14.6)* Markets are open

Institutional activity

(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

FIIs (83) (306) (531) (2,059)

MFs (82) - 595 6,193

FIIs Prov. 379

MFs Prov. (321)

Commodities % change


Crude (US$/bbl) 86.0 (0.4) (10.3) (5.8)

Gold (US$/oz) 1,672 0.1 4.2 17.7

Copper (US$/mt) 7,481 (0.7) (22.5) (22.5)

Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,192 (0.3) (11.0) (10.9)

Zinc (US$/mt) 1,885 (1.4) (19.8) (22.9)

Advance/Decline stocks

(Nos) A B S Total

Adv 88 1,018 211 1,320

Dec 109 1,094 228 1,432

Unch 6 93 27 126

A/D ratio (x)* 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9*A/D excluding Unch

Trade value

(Rs cr) % chg

Cash NSE 9,143 (7.9)

Cash BSE 2,412 10.8

Total Cash 11,555 (4.6)

Delivery (%) 43.5 -

Derivatives 107,916 (4.0)

Currency % change


Rs/US$ 48.95 (0.2) (8.9) (8.7)

Rs/EUR 67.48 (0.2) (7.3) (11.4)

US$/GBP 1.58 0.3 (1.7) 1.1

US$/EUR 1.38 0.2 (2.5) 2.8

Yen/US$ 76.81 (0.0) 2.9 5.6

Bond market

Last Close (%) Bps chg

10yr Gsec 8.80 (0.00)

Call rate 8.30 0.02

Sensex in t r a -day

16,750

16,850

16,950

17,050

17,150

17,250

9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30 ADR/GDR

Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc

Dr. Reddys 30.5 (1.7) (1.2)

HDFC Bk 31.2 0.2 6.6

ICICI Bk 36.3 (1.3) (1.3)

ITC 4.2 0.2 (0.3)

Infosys 55.1 (3.4) (1.9)

Ranbaxy 10.3 0.4 1.4

Reliance 34.1 (3.2) 0.1

Wipro 9.8 (1.3) 33.8

SBI 81.5 (0.2) 5.4Tata Motors 18.4 (0.9) (4.1)

Sterlite 9.8 (2.3) (1.2)

L&T 28.1 (2.7) (0.3)

Times are chang in geveryday !

Time is a d ressmaker spec ial i z ing in

a l te ra t i ons . ~ Fa i th Baldw in

Good bye high hopes. It has taken just one day forenthusiasm over the Oct. 23 eurozone summit towane. A statement from a German official wasenough to cast doubts over the ability of Europeanleaders to set aside differences and thrash out alasting solution to the credit crisis. Temperingexpectations from a big event (summit in Brussels)could be the right way for now to approachmarkets.

The start is set to be lower. Most world marketshave surrendered the G20-inspired gains amid

skepticism over Europes much-hyped plan to quellthe debt contagion. US indices were down ~2%each. European markets finished in the red as well.Most Asian benchmarks are down. Chinese sharesare down after its Q3 GDP slowed from theprevious quarter. However, retail sales andindustrial output have expanded smartly.

TCS will be in focus after its Q2 earnings. HeroMotoCorp, HCL Tech, Jindal Steel, Patni andPetronet LNG will also be in the spotlight ahead oftheir results.

The Nifty has been facing resistance between5170-5180 levels. All indicators suggest caution isgood for your financial health and otherwise.


2/19

News

Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

Corpor a te sn ippets

JSW Energy said it has begun commercialoperations of the 4th unit of 300 MW at its1,200-MW thermal power plant in Ratnagiri,

Maharashtra. (BL)

Rel iance Pow er said it has repaid 4.928%FCCBs amounting to USD$299.9 million thatwere due for redemption on October 17. (BL)

The agitation at Maru t i Suzuki I n d i a 'sManesar plant entered its 11th day on Mondaywith workers protesting outside the factorypremises. The company said it had resumedpartial production. (BL)

Moser Baer said that about 150 workers at itsoptical disc plant at Greater Noida wereprotesting outside the plant premises. (BL)

Un ion Bank o f I nd ia has carved out a mid-corporate banking vertical from the MSMEbanking vertical to give focussed attention tothe credit requirements of companies with aturnover of Rs1-5bn. (BL)

Al lahabad Bank has tied up with Aditya BirlaMoney to provide its customers the convenienceof investing in financial products online. (BL)

Je t A i rways and the Sahara group will take

their battle to the Supreme Court after theBombay High Court refused to intervene in thetwo-year-old dispute triggered by Jet'spurchase of the Sahara group's airlinebusiness. (ET)

Brazil expressed interest in taking the world'scheapest car - Tata Nano - to the SouthAmerican nation. (ET)

Rel iance I n d u s t r i e s is to suspend drilling forfuture oil and gas exploration pending areassessment with its new venture partner BP,a company source said. (ET)

Oberoi Hotels, the promoters of East I nd iaHote ls , has been slowly hiking stake in theircompany for the past six months, BSE datashows. (ET)

Future Group announced its foray into ruralwholesale business with opening its first

Aadhaar Wholesale store in the state. (BS)

Coal I nd ia L td relented on its earlier stand tolimit bonus payment to Rs0.017mn of its3,66,000 workers on its payroll. (BS)

REC plans to raise Rs10bn by issuing tax-saving infrastructure bonds in the currentfinancial year. The first tranche of the bondissuance is expected in the last week ofNovember. (BS)

Economy sn ippets

The cap on FII in Government Securities couldsoon be raised. The current limit of US$10bnfor the entire financial year has been almost

exhausted. (BL)

The industry ministry has asked its financecounterpart to restrain RBI from notifyingcertain clauses of the FDI policy related tofinancial instruments. (FE)

SEBI has approved share sale guidelines forinsurance firms. (ET)

Union Minister of Labour and EmploymentMallikarjun Kharge called for a national labourcode as a basic labour law that would lay downa floor of substantive labour rights or standardssuch as minimum wages, maximum hours ofwork, minimum standards of safety and healthat workplace. (BS)

ADB has approved a three-year Indiaoperations business plan that will provide thecountry with a lending assistance totallingUS$6.25bn to support its inclusive andsustainable growth. (BS)

Fresh and incremental funding dipped 8 percent to Rs4220bn in the April-Septemberquarter this year. Funding was Rs4610bn in the

same period last year, according to ratingagency CARE. (BS)

Resu l ts t ab le Rs m Revenues % yoy PAT % yoyHDFC 41,639 40.4 9,707 20.2

Mindtree 4,567 18.8 543 132.1

Mahindra Life 938 5.4 314 27.5

Motilal Oswal 1,120 (27.5) 350 1.9

PeninsulaLand

496 (59.6) 137 (78.6)

TCS 93,292 28.4 31,871 75.8ZeeEntertainment

5,211 4.0 1,186 (24.7)


3/19

Technicals


N if t y p r i ce / v o lu m e

11:M A M J J A S O

Log IRIS

Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com 4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

5800

6000

Cr

50.00

100

Price Avg3(S,100,S,200,S,50)

Vol

NSE Nifty [N59901] 5156.20, 5160.20, 5084.50, 5118.25, 480651296 -0.27%

Dly

27

The trading action on Monday turned out lack

luster as Nifty remained stuck in tight range of5,095-5,150 but ended in negative in later part ofthe day. Nifty has been facing multiple resistancebetween 5,170-5,180 levels and hence caution isadvised in coming days.

Suppor t / Res istance l eve l sClose Support Resistance

Nifty 5,118 5,060 5,170

Sensex 17,025 16,830 17,290

Abnorma l change in de l i ve ry Stock NSEDely (%) Prev NSEDely (%) Price % chg

Bel 94.2 30.8 (0.6)

Geship 94.9 33.4 (2.1)

Max 87.2 31.9 1.7

Jswsteel 17.7 7.2 (3.6)

Apil 48.2 20.2 (1.1)

Posi t i ve b reakout Company name CMP

10 DaysMVG avg

Price %chg

20 DaysMVG avg

Punjab Natl Bank 971.1 950.3 2.2 963.2

Hindustan Oil Ex 109.5 107.2 2.1 112.0

Bgr Energy Sys 330.3 323.6 2.0 331.8

Bharti Airtel 379.1 371.7 2.0 376.8

Thermax Ltd 430.1 422.1 1.9 454.2

Cesc Ltd 273.4 268.4 1.8 274.3

Adani Power Ltd 82.4 80.9 1.8 83.4

Rolta India Ltd 75.9 74.6 1.7 83.6

Havells India 352.0 346.4 1.6 354.6

Unichem Labs Ltd 137.6 135.4 1.6 138.4

Colga te Pa lmo l ive ( BUY, be tw een Rs995-9 96,Ta rge t Rs1 ,028 ) : Colgate Palmolive has givenbreakout from rounding bottom pattern above

Rs996 along with volume expansion. Such abreakout has happened after long consolidation for

almost a month and with positive crossover in RSI.A fresh buy signal has also been generated abovethe MACD reference line which supports buyingargument in the counter. The immediate projectionof breakout is placed at Rs1040. W e r e com m e n dbuying Co lga te Pa lmo l ive in the range o fRs995 -996 w i th s top l oss of Rs980 f o r Ta rgeto f Rs1028 . ( Du ra t i on 7 days)

Rel iance I n f r a ( SELL, be low Rs415 , Targe tRs402 ) : On the daily charts, the stock has given adownside breakdown after giving a close below the

support of ascending trendline. A breakdown inrising trendline implies that downtrend in the

counter is likely to prevail in the coming days.Moreover, appearance of falling tops signifies thebulls inability to form higher highs. Based on abovementioned technical evidences, we r e co m m e n d

t r ade rs to sho r t Rel i ance I n f ra Oc tobe rFu tu res be low Rs415 w i th s top l oss o f Rs421fo r t a rge t o f Rs402 .

Nega t i ve b reakou t Company name CMP

10 DaysMVG avg

Price %chg

20 DaysMVG avg

Maharashtra Seam 331.8 339.0 (2.1) 350.7

Ruchi Soya Indus 108.6 110.8 (2.0) 113.2

Jain Irrigation 136.1 138.5 (1.8) 147.9

Hindustan Const 27.4 27.9 (1.6) 28.6

Godrej Consumer 390.9 397.1 (1.6) 404.2

Gujarat State F 437.4 443.2 (1.3) 442.3

Jagran Prakashan 103.0 104.2 (1.1) 105.3

Indian Hotels Co 68.5 69.2 (1.1) 70.1

Siemens Ltd 825.4 834.0 (1.0) 845.6

Great Offshore L 116.3 117.4 (0.9) 124.6


4/19

Technicals


Pivo t tab le Company

CMP(Rs)

Supp1

Supp2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2

ABB 678 664 649 680 694 708

ACC 1,112 1,102 1,092 1,111 1,121 1,131

Ambuja Cem 153 149 147 151 155 159

BHEL 326 321 313 329 334 338BPCL 632 622 604 640 650 661

Bharti 380 376 370 381 386 390

Cairn 299 292 288 296 303 310

Cipla 290 286 283 288 292 297

DLF 236 232 229 235 239 243

Gail 410 406 400 412 416 420

Grasim 2,336 2,314 2,277 2,352 2,373 2,395

HCL Tech 440 433 427 439 446 453

HDFC Bank 478 473 470 477 482 486

Hero Honda 1,993 1,969 1,940 1,999 2,022 2,045

Hindalco 130 129 127 130 132 133

HUL 334 331 329 333 336 339

HDFC 673 666 660 672 679 687

ICICI Bank 899 890 883 896 906 915

Idea 97 95 93 96 99 101

Infosys 2,747 2,723 2,702 2,744 2,768 2,791

ITC 206 204 203 205 207 208

L&T 1,380 1,364 1,337 1,391 1,408 1,424

M&M 813 807 802 813 819 824

Maruti 1,052 1,019 996 1,043 1,075 1,108

Nalco 62 62 61 62 63 64

NTPC 168 166 162 170 172 174

ONGC 269 267 265 269 272 274

Powergrid 98 97 96 98 99 100

PNB 970 962 951 973 981 988

Ranbaxy 497 492 486 498 504 509

Rcom 77 75 74 77 78 80

Reliance 834 820 796 845 858 872

Reliance Infra 418 413 406 420 425 430

ReiancePower 87 85 84 87 88 90

Satyam 73 72 70 74 75 77

Siemens 825 817 802 832 841 849

SBI 1,892 1,872 1,842 1,903 1,922 1,942

SAIL 106 104 102 106 108 110

Sterlite 121 119 118 121 122 124

Sunpharma 472 465 457 473 480 487

Suzlon 38 37 37 38 38 39

Tata Com. 191 187 183 191 195 199

TCS 1,120 1,103 1,078 1,129 1,146 1,163

Tata Motors 188 184 180 187 192 196

Tata Power 100 99 98 100 101 102

Tata Steel 440 435 430 439 445 450Unitech 27 27 27 27 28 28

Wipro 357 352 345 359 364 368

Zee 113 112 110 114 115 117

A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day.These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.

Pivot levels are only br oad indicators and not necessarily our v iew on t he

stock or index.

Top ga iners Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg

Niit Ltd 49.8 13.8 (8.8)

Kpit Cummins Inf 170.0 12.1 17.2

Bl Kashyap&Sons 12.5 13.2 (59.3)

Niit Tech Ltd 234.3 10.8 18.3

Jb Chems & Pharm 80.2 9.8 (20.7)

Top losersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg

Wire And Wireles 8.9 (5.8) (27.0)

Welspun Corp Ltd 111.1 (5.7) (34.5)

Indian Oil Corp 292.9 (4.0) (14.5)

Asahi India Glas 63.0 (4.0) (34.1)

Anant Raj Indus 49.9 (3.9) (53.5)

Volum e ToppersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg

Niit Ltd 49.8 13.8 7,003.4

Info Edge 686.4 1.1 2,079.5

Great Eastern Sh 241.6 (2.1) 1,898.1

Kpit Cummins Inf 170.0 12.1 1,325.7

Golden Tobacco 56.7 (2.7) 1,197.6

Secto r w a tch Price % chg

BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth 50 DMA

BSE Bankex 11,131 0.6 0.0 (13.3) 11,764

BSE Realty 1,836 0.5 1.9 (16.8) 1,939

BSE HC 5,893 (0.1) (1.6) (8.9) 6,160

BSE Metals 11,314 (0.1) (7.6) (22.9) 13,316

BSE Oil & Gas 8,657 (2.3) (1.0) (4.8) 8,832

BSE Auto 8,989 1.6 1.8 1.0 8,659

BSE IT 5,670 (0.5) 11.1 (2.4) 5,550

BSE Power 2,143 (1.2) (3.3) (17.8) 2,380

BSE FMCG 3,999 0.2 1.7 (1.2) 3,939

BSE PSU 7,409 (0.7) (4.6) (13.5) 8,074

BSE Cap Goods 10,891 (1.4) (9.6) (20.5) 12,541

BSE CD 6,805 1.5 2.9 (1.9) 6,576

BSE 200 2,084 (0.3) (0.5) (9.6) 2,172

BSE 500 6,553 (0.2) (0.7) (9.7) 6,837

BSE Mid Cap 6,189 (0.0) (3.1) (11.9) 6,585

BSE Small Cap 6,923 0.2 (4.0) (17.5) 7,710

CNX 500 4,084 (0.2) (0.5) (9.4) 4,252

Note :

Ideas given under the Technicals section are for intraday purpose or upto a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under this

heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.


5/19

Deals


Bulk dea lsDate Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)

17/10/2011 Indiabulls Wholesale Ser Emerging Markets Value Fund S 435 4 1.7

17/10/2011 SPECTACLE Ifci Financial Services Ltd S 300 15 4.5

I n s id e r t r a d e s

Company name AcquirerTransactiondate B/S Qty ('000)

Sharestransactions (%)

Holding aftertransaction (%)

Liberty Phosphate Ltd Raoof Razak Dhanani 3/10/2011 B 4.4 0.0 2.4



Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Vanaja Arvind 10/8/2011 B 1.0 0.0 10.5












FI I s t r ad e sScrip name Volume ('000) Price (Rs) Prem/Disc (%)

Bank of Baroda 18.9 763.7 0.6

PNB 0.6 993.0 2.3


6/19

Derivatives


Ni f t y vo la t i l i t y Index dec l i ned to 25 .43 f r om25 .98 , decreased by 2 .12% . Total Nifty futures added 0.69mn shares in

open interest. Call open interest for October series added

1.78mn shares in Open Interest. Put open interest for October series shed

0.79mn shares in Open Interest.

Nifty put call ratio of open interest now standsat 1.48 vs 1.56.

Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at1.12 vs 1.17.

Maximum open interest in calls for Octoberseries is at 5,200 strike prices.

Maximum open interest in Puts for Octoberseries is at 4,800 strike prices.

Nifty October 5,100 Call added 1.09mn shares

in open interest. Nifty October 4,900 Put shed 0.12mn shares in

open interest.

Stra teg ies Long I RB I n f ra Oct Fu tu re between Rs169

170 for the Target price of Rs175 with a Stoploss placed at Rs166.

Lot size: 2000Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000 andnet maximum loss of Rs6,000.

Shor t I DFC Oct Fu tu re between Rs121122for the Target price of Rs116 with a Stop lossplaced at Rs125.Lot size: 2000Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000 andnet maximum loss of Rs6,000.

Ni f t y open in t e rest cha r t

0

150

300

450

600

750

21-Jul-11 18-Aug-11 16-Sep-11 14-Oct-11

OI & Vol

(lacs)

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500Nifty

Ni f t y snapsho t Current % Chg

Near month price 5,116 (0.5)

Near month Pre/Disc (2.4) (121.7)

Mid month price 5,132 (0.5)

Mid month Pre/Disc 14.2 (49.8)

OI* (000) 24,430 2.9Volume (000) 17,769 (15.2)

PCR (OI) 1.5 (4.6)

PCR (Vol) 1.1 (4.2)

Roll-over (%) 13.4 4.7

FI I d e r i v at i v e d a t a(Rs cr) Buy Sell Net Contracts OI % chg

Index Futures 1,833 1,692 141 22,547 4

Index Option 8,973 9,132 (159) 12,404 1

Stock Futures 2,330 2,635 (306) 15,244 1

Stock Options 418 400 18 (432) (1)

I ns t i t u t i ona l ac t i v i t y (Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

FII's (83.3) (306.2) (530.5) (2,059.4)

MF's (82.0) - 595.4 6,192.5

FIIs Prov. 378.7

MFs Prov. (321.4)

Overa l l m arke t 17-Oct-

1114-Oct-

1113-Oct-

11Value %

chg

Index Future (Rs cr) 10,891 12,589 13,606 (13.5)

Stock Future (Rs cr) 12,478 11,311 13,063 10.3

Index Options (Rs cr) 80,786 84,693 38,812 (4.6)

Stock Options (Rs cr) 3,761 3,847 1,863 (2.2)

Index Future (Cont '000) 457 529 574 (13.7)

Stock Future (Cont '000) 496 453 522 9.6

Index Options (Cont '000) 3,157 2,187 3,588 44.4Stock Options (Cont '000) 146 206 161 (29.3)

PCR (OI) 1.1 1.1 1.3 6.1

PCR (VOI) 0.6 0.4 0.5 32.9

Ni f t y s t r i kes open in te res t

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500

OI in ('000)Call Put

Sector -w ise OI

-2

0

2

4

6

Automobiles

Banking

Capital

goods&

Infra

Cement

Fertilizers

FMCG IT

RealEstate

Media

Metals

Oil&

Gas

Pharma

Power

Logistics

Sugar

Textile

Telecom

Others

TotalStock

Future

% Chg


7/19


Derivatives

Fut ures open in t e rest ga iners Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)

Petronet 7,006.0 22.4 164.5 4.9 9,742.0 420.4 (0.6)

Bankbaroda 1,950.8 12.3 754.6 (1.5) 665.0 39.0 5.3

Sesagoa 13,601.0 11.1 218.8 0.3 4,924.0 (34.4) 1.3

Bajajhind 21,151.0 11.0 37.5 (1.2) 5,735.3 (20.4) 0.8

Gspl 3,656.0 9.2 100.1 (2.7) 1,096.0 29.2 (0.3)

Voltas 3,038.0 8.7 103.8 (1.8) 1,146.0 (36.3) (0.3)

Gail 1,728.0 8.1 411.0 (1.5) 505.5 7.9 (1.3)

Zeel 7,702.0 7.8 113.8 1.1 3,812.0 219.8 (0.6)

Balramchin 18,568.0 7.8 51.5 5.1 4,396.0 20.4 (0.2)

Axisbank 7,926.8 7.7 1,111.7 1.3 3,892.3 8.8 10.1

Bhel 12,900.6 7.5 325.8 (2.4) 2,650.6 18.3 (0.1)

Fut ures open in te rest losersScrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)

Bajaj-Auto 1,224.5 (2.9) 1,655.6 1.1 402.3 (9.8) (1.2)

Unionbank 2,530.0 (3.0) 250.5 (1.3) 590.0 6.1 0.1

Beml 229.5 (5.6) 509.2 (1.5) 58.5 (81.8) (0.3)

Tatapower 10,270.0 (8.5) 100.1 (0.4) 2,825.0 8.0 (0.1)

Lupin 1,213.0 (13.0) 464.1 1.5 539.0 (17.7) (0.1)Relcapital 6,062.0 (9.2) 336.8 (3.9) 3,979.0 19.9 (0.4)

Beml 229.5 (5.6) 509.2 (1.5) 58.5 (81.8) (0.3)

Ofss 209.5 (5.0) 2,087.8 2.5 31.1 232.0 7.6

Brfl 1,778.0 (3.7) 279.1 (0.7) 191.0 96.9 (0.6)

Iob 1,164.0 (3.5) 99.4 0.0 132.0 (23.3) 0.1

Indianb 388.0 (3.2) 208.7 1.7 98.0 (11.7) (0.1)

Most act ive s tock ca l ls Most act ive n i f t y ca l lsScrip Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs)

Volume('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)

Reliance 860 644.0 17.8 8.3 6,245.0 5100 5,294.4 26.0 80.3 21,740.6

Reliance 900 1,014.3 7.7 2.2 4,237.0 5200 6,872.8 8.6 35.0 20,411.8

Reliance 880 531.8 (1.6) 4.1 4,117.0 5300 6,161.3 9.4 11.6 12,442.7

Sbin 1900 230.5 (2.6) 39.0 3,664.0 5400 4,152.4 (0.2) 3.7 5,347.8

Sbin 1950 421.8 8.7 21.8 3,423.0 5000 2,756.6 (2.7) 149.8 3,317.3

Sbin 2000 585.0 3.4 11.5 2,758.0 5500 2,052.7 12.3 1.4 2,499.9

Reliance 840 366.0 55.4 15.8 3,022.0 5200 1,034.3 27.0 119.3 1,239.5

Tcs 1150 313.3 218.8 17.4 2,088.0 5400 1,649.0 26.7 47.0 1,133.8

Tcs 1200 358.0 117.0 6.3 1,653.0 5300 987.1 28.2 77.7 977.7

Tatamotors 190 740.0 34.2 4.0 1,872.0 4900 1,087.1 (23.1) 236.0 828.8

Most act i ve s tock pu ts Mos t act i ve n i f t y pu ts Scrip Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs)

Volume('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)

Reliance 840 464.3 (18.3) 19.1 4,400.0 5100 4032.1 (4.1) 60.0 25171.4

Sbin 1900 232.5 (8.1) 52.6 2,481.0 5000 6275.6 (4.4) 31.0 15552.9

Tcs 1100 275.3 82.9 16.9 2,089.0 4900 6030.4 (1.9) 15.7 9037.2

Reliance 820 360.5 (14.7) 10.5 2,237.0 4800 8721.3 (1.3) 8.3 8971.0

Reliance 860 260.3 (26.8) 31.0 2,048.0 5200 1465.3 3.3 111.2 6282.0

Infy 2700 182.3 33.9 28.3 1,164.0 4700 7188.8 (1.2) 4.7 3988.1

Sbin 1800 200.0 7.6 16.2 1,705.0 4600 3397.0 (2.7) 3.0 2529.3

Infy 2600 417.6 4.4 9.6 1,061.0 4500 4839.5 2.1 1.9 1518.6

Reliance 800 547.0 (9.5) 5.5 1,641.0 5100 721.7 39.9 135.2 926.0

Tcs 1120 254.3 118.2 26.0 1,120.0 5000 985.9 9.5 98.3 866.7

*OI= Open Interest


8/19

Mutual Funds


Fund focus

U TI Op p o r t u n i t i e s Fu n d I n v e stFund manager Anoop Bhaskar Min investment Rs5,000

Latest NAV Rs26.7 Entry load Nil

NAV 52 high/low Rs29.8/25.0 Exit load 1% before 1 year

Latest AUM Rs1,702cr Benchmark BSE 100

Class Equity diversified Asset allocation Equity (89%), Cash (10%)

Options Growth & dividend Expense ratio 1.94%

Top Recommended Funds (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close)Equity Diversified/Largecap

Assets(Rs Cr)

NAV(Rs) 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr

HDFC Equity Fund (G) 9,220 249.9 2.4 (0.1) (11.1) (12.6) (15.8) 13.2 104.9 80.4

ICICI Prudential Dynamic - (G) 3,783 98.9 2.8 1.3 (8.9) (9.8) (9.5) 17.2 83.8 71.6

UTI Opportunities Fund (G) 1,576 26.7 3.1 0.1 (3.5) (3.7) (5.4) 13.7 110.3 89.2

Equity Midcap

DSP-BR Small & Mid Cap - (G) 1,208 16.8 2.1 (1.1) (8.7) (7.4) (15.0) 25.4 129.6 67.6HDFC Mid-Cap Opp Fund (G) 1,297 15.3 1.8 (1.4) (8.7) (2.5) (7.8) 33.8 118.5 --

IDFC Premier Fund (G) 1,119 17.6 1.4 (1.5) (7.9) (5.8) (12.3) 25.1 134.8 --

Equity Tax saving

Fidelity Tax Advantage (G) 1,119 17.6 1.4 (1.5) (7.9) (5.8) (12.3) 25.1 134.8 --

HDFC Tax Saver (G) 3,114 212.1 2.5 (0.6) (10.3) (10.6) (15.1) 14.8 88.6 54.2

ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) 1,323 131.0 2.8 0.8 (8.0) (8.6) (13.5) 20.2 106.4 43.9

Hybrid

DSP-BR Balanced Fund (G) 742 62.8 1.7 (1.3) (6.9) (6.4) (10.3) 11.1 63.8 73.8

HDFC Prudence Fund (G) 6,131 204.8 1.8 (0.6) (6.2) (5.3) (6.9) 23.5 106.0 94.7

Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) 270 45.7 1.6 (1.2) (5.5) (2.8) (2.1) 19.0 77.6 41.0

Debt Money market

DSP-BR Money Manager -RP (G) 6,023 22.2 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.3 8.2 13.5 20.8 41.7

HDFC Cash Mgmt Fund TA (G) 729 1,446.3 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.4 8.6 14.0 19.8 39.6

Reliance Money Manager (G) 1,842 1,386.5 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.3 8.4 13.6 21.4 --

Debt Floating rate

ICICI Pru Floating Rate -D (G) 4,083 152.6 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.5 8.7 14.2 21.7 --

Kotak Floater LTP (G) 3,991 16.4 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.6 8.8 14.4 22.6 44.8

Tata Floater Fund (G) 5,375 15.4 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.5 8.8 14.4 22.3 44.3

NFO UpdateFund name Open date Close date Type

#Class

DWS FTF Series 91 04-Oct 18-Oct CE Debt - FMP

HDFC FMP 92D October 2011 (2) 14-Oct 18-Oct CE Debt - FMPTata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 37 B 11-Oct 18-Oct CE Debt - FMP

HDFC FMP 370D October 2011 (2) 14-Oct 19-Oct CE Debt - FMP

Kotak FMP Series 63 14-Oct 20-Oct CE Debt - FMP#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended

Recent Actions

HDFC FMP 92D July 2011 (2) declares dividend. The quantum of dividend will be 100% of distributable surplus as on the recorddate. The record date has been fixed as October 20, 2011.

Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund declares dividend under Franklin India Opportunities Fund (Re0.70) and Franklin Infotech(Re1.5). The record date has been fixed as October 21, 2011.

DSP BlackRock FMP Series 4 3 Months declares dividend. The record date has been fixed as October 19, 2011

HDFC FMP 370D September 2010 (2) declares dividend. The record date has fixed as October 19, 2011.

ICICI Prudential Annual Interval Plan III declares dividend. The quantum of dividend will be Rs. 0.3704 per unit for retail andRs. 0.3720 per unit for institutional plan. The record date has been fixed as October 19, 2011.

Kotak Quarterly Interval Plan Series 5 declares dividend. The record date has been fixed as October 19, 2011.

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.


9/19

House Recommendations


House Recommenda t ionsThe large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis--vis the Niftyrespectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute returnexpectations.

Top Large- cap BuysStock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)

Axis Bank Banking Positive 1,122 462.6

Hindalco Metals Neutral 130 249.3

ICICI Bank Banking Positive 899 1,035.8

Infosys IT Neutral 2,747 1,577.1

ITC FMCG Positive 206 1,599.3

Lupin Pharmaceuticals Positive 464 207.2

M&M Automobiles Neutral 813 499.0

Tata Motors Automobiles Neutral 188 555.5

Tata Steel Metals Neutral 440 422.1

TCS IT Neutral 1,120 2,192.6Source: I ndia Inf oline Research

Best Mid-cap Buy sStock Sector CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)

Glenmark Pharma Pharmaceuticals 293 79.2

Manappuram General Finance Finance 57 47.7

Indian Hotels Hotels 69 52.0

Radico Khaitan Breweries 121 16.1Source: I ndia Inf oline Research

Top Sel ls

Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)ABB Capital goods Negative 678 143.8

Bank of India Banking Positive 339 185.4

Hotel Leelaventure Hotel Negative 39 15.0

Source: I ndia Inf oline Research


10/19

TCS Lt d MP

(Q2 FY12)

October 18 , 20 11

Secto r : I n fo rm a t i on Techno logy

Sensex: 17,025

CMP (Rs): 1,120

Target price (Rs): 1,190

Upside (%): 6.3

52 Week h/l (Rs): 1247 / 903

Market cap (Rscr) : 219,170

6m Avg vol (000Nos): 1,965

No of o/s shares (mn): 1,957

FV (Re): 1

Bloomberg code: TCS IB

Reuters code: TCS.BO

BSE code: 532540

NSE code: TCS

Closing price as on 17 October, 2011.

Shareho ld i ng pa t te r n

June '11 (%)Promoters 74.1

Institutions 20.9

Non promoter corp hold 0.4

Public & others 4.6

Perform ance re l . to sensex

(%) 1m 3m 1yr

TCS 8.3 5.8 33.5

Infosys 14.2 8.6 5.3

Wipro 4.5 (5.9) (9.4)

HCL Tech 12.5 (3.6) 17.3

Share p r i ce t rend

60

90

120

150

Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11

TCS Sensex

Strong volume growth on expected lines; Realisation and crosscurrency impact negatively

Broad based growth across verticals, services & geographies;Telecom and ADM subdued

OPM performance beats expectation; Operational leverage, rupeedepreciation offset pricing fall impact

Employee additions and guidance on track; Attrition satisfactorilydown

Volumes momentum expected to continue in near term; Increaseestimates marginally for margin beat and rupee depreciation

Resu l t t ab le(Rs mn) Q2 FY12 Q1FY12 % qoq Q2 FY11 % yoy

Net sales 116,335 107,970 7.7 92,864 25.3

Operating profit 33,829 30,310 11.6 27,894 21.3

OPM (%) 29.1 28.1 100 bps 30.0 (96) bpsDepreciation 2,286 2,049 11.6 1,886 21.2

Interest - - - - -

Other income 997 2,886 - 337 -

PBT 32,540 31,147 4.5 26,345 23.5

Tax 7,913 7,063 12.0 4,992 58.5

Effective tax rate (%) 24.3 22.7 - 18.9 -

Other prov/minority etc 237 281 (15.7) 288 (17.7)

Adjusted PAT 24,390 23,803 2.5 21,065 15.8

Adj. PAT margin (%) 21.0 22.0(108)bps

22.7 (172) bps

Reported PAT 24,390 23,803 2.5 21,065 15.8

EPS (Rs) 12.5 12.2 2.5 10.8 15.8Source: Company, India Infoline Research

St rong vo lum e g row th on expec ted l i nes ; Rea li sat i on and c ross

cu r rency impac t n ega t i ve l yTCS continued its strong volume growth streak in Q2 FY12 withvolume growth coming in at 6.3% qoq. While the volume growth wasas per expectation, constant currency dollar revenue growth came inat 5.2% qoq impacted by ~100 bps of realisation correction. Therealisation is estimated to be impacted due to services mix change&reduction in some higher realisation FPP projects (FPP contribution fellfrom 49.7% to 46.8%). Due impact of cross currency (-50bps),reported dollar revenues were up 4.7% sequentially. Managementexpected pricing to remain stable for FY12 (pricing uptick now being alow probability). Company won ten new large deals (US$100mn+) andstated the pipeline being robust, continuously chasing 10-12 largedeals. The deal wins were pleasantly broad-based wrt geography aswell as verticals. One of the most heartening part of the result wasthat despite choppy macro, confident commentary was given by themanagement in terms of demand environment and client spendingdynamics. Outlook in terms of deals and pipeline continued to bebright as stated by the management.


11/19

TCS Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Resul t Update 2

Broad based grow th across ver t ica ls , serv ices & geograph ies; Te lecom and ADM subdu edTCS performance continued to be one with a broad based growth. The company saw robust tractionacross its various verticals, service lines and geographies. Amongst verticals Retail (+9.2% qoq),Manufacturing (+7.4% qoq), Energy and Utilities (+18.5% qoq) were strong. BFSI growth, a keymonitorable in current macro uncertainty, also grew well at 5.2% qoq. Within geographies, UK/Europe

(+6.3% qoq), US (+5.4% qoq) and APAC (+7.6% qoq) saw strong growth. As far as service lines areconcerned Engineering/Enterprise solutions/BPO lead the pack with 9.2%/7.6%/5% growth respectively.ADM amongst services and Telecom amongst verticals were notable areas were growth was subdued.

OPM per fo rmance beats expecta t ion ; Rupee deprec ia t ion , opera t iona l leverage o f fse t p r ic ingfa l l im pactAs against our expectation of ~60bps expansion in OPM, the margin outperformed expanding 100bps onqoq basis. Strong operational leverage due to commendable volume growth and rupee depreciationrelated tailwind helped expand the margin against the headwinds of pricing fall and promotions. On thepricing front, management continued to maintain its stance of stable pricing with improvements in pricing(like-to-like) to be elusive. Forex loss of Rs910mn as well as lower income on reduced cash base(dividend payout for last FY as well as interim dividend for Q1 FY12) led to lower than expected Other

income of Rs997mn. This coupled with higher tax rate (24.3% v/s 22.7% in Q1 FY12) led to net profitsincreasing softly by 2.5% qoq. Employee pyramid as well as utilization are key levers to help maintainmargin going ahead, in our view.

Em p loyee add i t i ons and gu idance on t r ack ; A t t r i t i on sa t i s facto r i l y dow nTCS employee addition was strong qoq (as guided) with gross additions (~20350) being the highest in thehistory. Net additions were also quite robust at 12580 (10.1% of Q1 FY12 base). These strong additionsalong with the maintained full year guidance of 60000 employee adds, suggest decent demand traction aswell as companys continued focus on maintaining enough buffer for future growth. Employee utilizationlevel (excluding trainees) was maintained at similar levels. Also, management stated its willingness toinch it up further to 84%-85% level if need be. Attrition came down satisfactorily from 14.8% last quarterto 13.7% currently.

Vo lum es m om en tum expected to con t i nue i n nea r te rm bu t i s l a rge l y p r i ced i n ; I nc reaseest im a tes marg ina l l y fo r m arg in bea t and rupee dep recia t i onAs expected, TCS delivered yet another quarter of strong volume performance. Management commentaryas well strong deal win trajectory further indicate that the volume momentum would continue through H2FY12 (adjusted for seasonality). TCS commentary on robust demand taken in conjunction with the strong5.5% cqgr guidance given by Infosys for H2 FY12 makes us additionally confident on FY12 being relativelyunaffected by the changing macro. For TCS, though the volumes continue to out-perform, a large part ofthis seems to be priced in the current valuations of the company (trading at 18x FY13E earning). Marginis expected to be range bound going ahead. We have increased our estimates marginally to Rs53.4/62.6for FY12/13E to factor in the margin beat as well as weakened rupee. Even as strong run-up in the recentpast the stock makes it relatively richly valued, we believe that it continues to be a Safe Haven for thesector and long term investors can maintain their hold on the same.


12/19

TCS Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Resul t Update 3

Financ ia l summaryY/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Revenues 300,288 373,245 482,537 569,362

yoy growth (%) 8.0 24.3 29.3 18.0

Operating profit 86,798 112,093 140,849 163,504

OPM (%) 28.9 30.0 29.2 28.7Pre-exceptional PAT 68,728 86,800 104,513 122,445

Reported PAT 68,728 86,800 104,513 122,445

yoy growth (%) 32.9 26.3 20.4 17.2

EPS (Rs) 35.1 44.3 53.4 62.6

P/E (x) 31.9 25.3 21.0 17.9

Price/Book (x) 11.9 8.9 6.8 5.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 24.7 18.9 14.6 12.2

RoE (%) 40.3 40.6 37.0 33.8

RoCE (%) 46.1 49.9 47.9 44.0Source: Company, India Infoline Research


13/19

HDFC Ltd N ot Rat ed

(Q2 FY12)

October 18 , 20 11

Sector: NBFC

Sensex: 17,025

CMP (Rs): 673

52 Week h/l (Rs): 750 / 582

Market cap (Rscr) : 98,979

6m Avg vol (000Nos): 2,746

No of o/s shares (mn): 1,471

FV (Rs): 2

Bloomberg code: HDFC IB

Reuters code: HDFC.BO

BSE code: 500010

NSE code: HDFC

Prices as on 17 Oct, 2011

Shareho ld i ng pa t te r n

Sept '10 (%)

Promoters -

Institutions 87.3

Non promoter corp hold 1.8

Public & others 11.0

Perform ance re l . to sensex

(%) 1m 3m 1yr

HDFC Ltd 1.3 5.0 8.0

IDFC Ltd 9.8 (2.7) (24.7)

LIC Hsg Fin 11.9 14.4 1.4

Dewan Hsg (0.2) 8.2 (11.5)

Share p r i ce t rend

70

80

90

100

110

Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11

HDFC Ltd Sensex

Steady business performance amid rising rates; loans increase

19% yoy

Spread was stable but NII growth strong; liability profile changessignificantly

Cost/Income ratio slightly improved; Asset quality remainssanguine

Additional provisioning met from additional reserve; RoA and RoEbeat expectations

Premium valuation to continue

Resu l t t ab le(Rs mn) Q2 FY12 Q1 FY12 % qoq Q2 FY11 % yoy

Interest Income 38,541 35,131 9.7 27,371 40.8

Interest exp & other chg 26,905 25,149 7.0 17,176 56.6

Net Interest Income 11,636 9,982 16.6 10,195 14.1

Other operating Income 2,230 2,875 (22.5) 1,695 31.6

Profit on sale of inv 869 163 434.3 590 47.4Other income 52 47 11.6 47 10.4

Total Op. Income 13,865 12,858 7.8 11,890 16.6

Operating expenses 1,238 1,132 9.4 1,041 18.9

Pre-prov operating profit 13,548 11,935 13.5 11,485 18.0

Provisions 170 180 (5.6) 150 13.3

PBT 13,378 11,755 13.8 11,335 18.0

Tax 3,670 3,310 10.9 3,260 12.6

PAT 9,708 8,445 14.9 8,075 20.2

Q2 FY12 Q1 FY12 chg qoq Q2 FY11 chg yoy

Business perf. (Rs bn)

Approvals 238 194 22.6 207 14.9Disbursements 208 130 60.0 175 18.8

Loans 1,270 1,242 2.3 1,063 19.5

Individual 803 779 3.1 683 17.6

Corporate Bodies 451 448 0.7 365 23.6

Others 16 15 8.3 15 5.3

Borrowings 1,251 1,235 1.3 1,092 14.6

- -

Key Ratios (%) - -

Spreads 2.3 2.3 (0.0) 2.3 (0.0)

RoA 2.9 2.6 0.3 2.8 0.1

RoE 21.6 19.6 2.0 20.3 1.3

CAR 13.8 13.8 - 14.1 (0.3)Tier I 11.7 12.2 (0.5) 13.0 (1.3)

GNPL (90 days overdue) 0.8 0.8 (0.0) 0.9 (0.0)

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Steady bus iness per fo rmance amid r is ing ra tes; loans increase1 9% y oyHDFC delivered a strong business performance with the outstandingloan book increasing 19.5% yoy (24% yoy including sell downs). Thisremains consistent with the companys guidance of growing the bookby 19-20% in the year. Over the past 12 months, the company hassold loans worth Rs50bn. There was some slowdown witnessed inapprovals growth during the quarter (15% as compared to 22% in Q1FY12) which could be mainly attributable to the rising cost of home

loans. At the start of August, HDFC had hiked its Retail Prime lendingRate (RPLR) by 50bps. The disbursements growth remained strong at

19% yoy. Individual loans (25% yoy growth including sell downs)continue to comprise 63% of the portfolio.


14/19

HDFC Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Resul t Update 2

Spread was s tab le bu t N I I g row th s t r ong ; l i ab i l i t y p ro f i l e changes s ign i f i can t l yAs expected the spread during the quarter was largely stable (2.28% v/s 2.3% in Q1 FY12). Increasingcost pressures seems to have been fully offset by the hike taken in the RPLR. A key highlight of thequarter was substantial shift in the liability profile towards Bonds and Debentures (comprised 49% of totalborrowings v/s 42% in Q1 FY12). The significant increase in funding from Bonds and Debentures mainly

substituted Term Loans from banks whose share declined to 26% (fell 22% in absolute terms). Give thecurrent scenario, such change in liability profile should lend long-term stability and moderate near-termcost escalations. NII growth was significantly ahead of expectation at 17% qoq. HDFC continues to guidefor spreads in the range of 2.15-2.35%. We expect stable spreads in coming quarters.

Cost / I ncome ra t i o sl i gh t l y imp r oved ; Asse t qua l i t y r ema ins sangu ineDespite lower dividend income (due to seasonality) and a strong increase (9% qoq) in opex, thecost/income ratio marginally improved to 8.4% aided by robust fee income (38% qoq growth) and higherprofit on investment sale (Rs869mn). Asset quality continues to be sanguine with stable GNPA (90 daysoverdue) at 0.82%. Notwithstanding the introduction of 0.4% standard asset provisioning on retail homeloans for HFCs during the quarter, HDFCs provisioning was modest at Rs170mn due to excessprovisioning cover carried by the company. The additional provisioning (~Rs2.6bn) on account of the

above introduction was adjusted against the additional reserve (created over the years by higher-than-regulated provisioning). As at end September, the company still carried an additional provisioning reserveof ~Rs3.3bn thus providing cushion against any potential deterioration in the asset quality.

Prem ium va lua t i on to con t i nueWe expect HDFC to continue to trade at premium valuations due to high visibility for growth, exemplarymargin management track record, relatively resilient asset quality and high profitability (RoA 2.5-2.7%and RoE 20-22%). The company is likely to outperform the Bankex and the broader market in themedium term.


15/19

HDFC Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Resul t Update 3

Marked dece le ra t i on i n app rova ls g rowthw h i l e di sb u r sem e n ts g r o w t h w a s st r o n g

Lo a n g r ow th a t 2 0 % , n ea r t h e g u i d ed r a n g e

0

8

16

24

32

40

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

(%)

Approvals Disbursements

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

(%)

Source: Company, I ndia Infolin e Research

Loan p ro f i l e l a rge l y unchanged w i thind i v idua l loans compr i s ing ~ 63%

Spread w as stab le w i th cost increases o f fse tby h ike in RPLR

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

Individuals Corporate Others

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.5

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

(%)


Asse t qua l i t y (GNPA) con t i nue to imp r ove CAR w e l l - above the regu la to r y requ i remen t

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

(%)

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

(%)

CAR Tier I



16/19

M a r k e t M a n t r a

Economy

GDP g r o w th ( Q u a r t er l y ) I n f l a t i on

7.7

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,00011,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

(Rs bn)

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0(%)

GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS)

9.7

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Feb-07

Jul-07

Dec-07

May-08

Oct-08

Mar-09

Aug-09

Jan-10

Jun-10

Nov-10

Apr-11

Sep-11

(%)

G-Secs y ie ld M3 grow th

8.54

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

(%) 10 Yr Gsecs 1 Yr Gsecs

68,588

16.3

25,00030,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

Oct-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

(Rs bn)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0(%)M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)

`

CRR, Repo I I P and Six key i n f r a i ndus t r y g row th

6.0

8.25

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Nov-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

(%) CRR Repo

4.1

7.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jul-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%)


17/19


Economy

Trade de f i ci t (Qua r te r l y ) Cu r ren t accoun t de f i ci t (Qua r te r l y )

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

(US$ bn)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

(US$ bn)

FDI RBI fo rex reserves

(500)

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

(US$ mn)

312

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

Oct-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

(US$ bn)

Fiscal de f ic i t Cur r ency m ovem ent

448

(650)

(450)

(250)

(50)

150

350

550

750

950

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

(Rs bn)

48.9

68.4

77.9

61.8

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

INR/USD INR/EURO

INR/GBP INR/100 Yen


18/19


Event Calendar

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Fr iday Sa tu rd ay

October 0 3 October 04 Octob er 05 Octob er 06 Octob er 07 Octob er 08Aug Exports YoY%44.3% vs 81.8%Aug Imports YoY%41.8% vs 51.5%

US unemploymentrate9.1% vs 9.1%US wholesaleinventories0.4% vs 0.8%

US consumer credit-$9.5b vs $11.9b

October 10 October 11 Octob er 12 Octob er 13 Octob er 14 Octob er 15

Sintex TTK Prestige

Sept IIP data YoY4.1% vs 3.3%

Infosys

US trade balance

Praj Ind

Sept inflation dataYoY%US businessinventories

GDL, RIILRelianceIndustries, OberoiRealty

October 17 October 18 Octob er 19 Octob er 20 Octob er 21 Octob er 22

US Sep IIP

HDFC, MindTree,TCS, Zee Ent,Mahindra Life

US producer priceindex yoy

Patni Computers,IndusInd Bk, Crisil,HCL Tech, HeroMoto, Jet Air,Petronet Lng, NIITTech

US building permitmom%US housing startsmom%

Bajaj Finance,Bajaj Finserve,HDFC Bank, IGL,Mastek, WWIL,Dish TV, CrompGreaves, HindZinc, Rallis,Infotech Ent

Bajaj Auto,Hexaware,Thermax, CairnIndia, Yes Bank,Biocon, Exide Ind,IDBI, KPIT, PirHealth, UltratechCem, Noida Toll,DB Corp

3iInfotech, AsianPaints, HCC, HTMedia, L&T, JSWSteel, United Phos,Shopper Stop,Godrej Prop,Godrej Ind, Idea

Axis Bk, Grasim,Jagran, Power Grid,Suzlon

October 2 4 October 25 Octob er 26 Octob er 27 Octob er 28 Octob er 29

M&M Fin, Titan,Gail, ITC, Pfizer,Union Bk, Sterlite

RBI policy meet

Dr Reddys Lab,Eng Ind, NTPC,Sesa Goa

US GDP qoq

NHPC Maruti

October 3 1

BPCL, Colgate,

Dabur, OBC,Castrol, Wipro

Blue: Economic data, Black: results


19/19

Recomm enda t i on pa ramete rs fo r f undament a l repo r t s :

Bu y Absolute return of over +10%

Marke t Pe r fo rm er Absolute return between -10% to +10%

Sell Absolute return below -10%

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