market intelligence report swine meat - apeda€¦ · swine meat is the second most popular meat...
TRANSCRIPT
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Market intelligence report
Swine Meat
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Worldwide Pork Stories
One year after emerging in China, African
Swine Fever (ASF) is driving Chinese pork
prices to record highs and causing an
extensive reduction in pork supply.
By the end of 2020, China’s total swine
herd is forecast to decline to 275 million
head, down nearly 40 percent since the
beginning of 2018.
Lower hog supplies will drive a substantial
decline in China’s pork production – down
14 percent in 2019 and down 25 percent in
2020.
Production growth is likely to be uneven
among farm-size. Large integrated
producers have already announced
ambitious expansion plans and are
generally well-capitalized
Production is forecast 4
percent higher in 2020 on
increased slaughter and heavier
carcass weights.
Exports are up 11 percent due to
robust demand from China,
improved sales to Mexico, and
steady demand from Japan and
Korea.
Although retaliatory tariffs
remain in place on U.S. pork in
China, tariff exemptions and
high Chinese pork prices are
expected to boost sales in 2020.
Shipments are expected to
accelerate to Mexico due to the
repeal of retaliatory tariffs.
China USA
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With strong biosecurity and limited ASF outbreaks, South Korea’s pork production
will be minimally affected.
Greater production and imports for all three meats will spur total per capita
consumption 3 percent higher.
Prospects for Indian swine meat exporters in 2020
Indian swine meat export forecasts are solid and exports are expected steadily increase
over the next few years. ASF breakout in China and EU countries and subsequent ban on
EU pork exports by several countries opens doors for Indian swine meat exports and this
opportunity can be tapped by the exporters. The Russian Federation, for example, imposed
a ban on pork imports originating from the European Union following an outbreak of
African Swine Fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe. Chinese swine herd is expected to decline by
40% and recovery is unlikely in 2020.
Source: Trademap
South Korea
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USA and China seem to be the largest importer of Swine meat followed by Australia. European Union member countries and Mexico remained consisted importers of Swine Meat in the world
Import growth highest in case of japan, South Korea, China and USA:
prospective markets for 2020
Source: Trademap
Trend of Indian Swine Meat Exports in Existing Markets (HS Code: 020329)
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International Demand to Outstrip Global Supply
Global production is forecast down 10 percent in 2020 due to the impact of African Swine
Fever (ASF) on swine herds in several major producing countries. Most of the reduction in
global production is due to a 25-percent decline in China pork production. Production is
also lower in the Philippines (-16 percent) and Vietnam (-6 percent). South Korea has
reported 14 cases of ASF thus far, but outbreaks have been contained and no production
impact is expected at present. In Europe, weak domestic demand, ongoing ASF in some
Member States, and environmental regulations are limiting expansion, but production is
forecast 1 percent higher on strengthening exports. Most major pork exporters will boost
production in 2020 due to rising global import demand. Production is up robustly in the
United States (4 percent) and Brazil (5 percent).
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Global Exports of Swine Meatto increase in 2020
Global exports are forecast 10 percent higher to 10.4 million tons. China imports are
forecast 35 percent higher and account for 35 percent of global pork imports. The
Philippines imports are also forecast 32 percent higher due to disease impact on domestic
supplies. Outside of ASFaffected countries, demand is expected to be muted by higher
global prices. Many pricesensitive markets are expected to reduce imports of pork on
strong competition from ASFaffected buyers. EU exports are up 13 percent and Brazil up 20
percent mostly on growth in exports to Asia. In contrast, Canada’s exports are down slightly
as restrictions from China limit opportunities for growth.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
16%
16%
14%
9%
9%
8%
5%
4%
20%
Share in Global Pork Exports
USA
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Canada
Netherlands
Belgium
Brazil
RoW
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Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
China’s imports from the United States are up 47 percent this year, but retaliatory tariffs are
limiting demand from many buyers in China. This may offer India an opportunity to fill this
gap in China.
Global Consumption of Swine Meat to increase in 2020
The outlook for global swine meat consumption is positive, largely underpinned by growth
in population and household wealth in developing markets.Global consumption of swine
meat is forecasted to rise in coming years. This combined with the threat of African Swine
Fever deemed to wipe out one fourth of swine population from the world provides good
opportunity for Indian exporters in this industry.
Global Import Trend of Swine Meat (HS Code: 020649)
Global Import Trend of Swine Meat (HS Code: 020329)
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Global Import Trend of Swine Meat (HS Code: 020321)
Swine meat is the second most popular meat source and likely to retain this
position in coming years.
European and North American markets are major consumers of swine meat.
Countries like Angola, Iraq, UAE, Ukraine, Vietnam have stepped up their meat
imports opening up new opportunities in these markets.
A decline in 2018 consumption is declining in most cases owing to Chinese and
eastern European breakout of ASF which led to low supply and higher prices.
Howeverwe believe as supply increases and prices come down, swine meat will
maintain its demand.
Global Opportunities and Challenges for India
African Swine Fever –Breakout of the African Swine (ASF) which has no cure has
resulted in significant decline in the Chinese pig herd and hence creates a gap in the global
swine export market that Indian exporters may fill.
National Animal Disease Control Programme– Many countries are apprehensive
aboutmeat imports from India on the grounds of ‘Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD)’. Present
Indian government has started National Animal Disease Control Programme (NADCP) for
eradicating FMD with 100% funding from Central Government.
Global Trade Policies offer a challenge –Trade policies remain a major factor
impacting the dynamics in world meat markets and hence the projection and
implementation of various trade agreements over the outlook period could eventually
diversify or consolidate meat trade considerably. Specifically, several Pacific Ocean
countries have completed negotiations for a Trans-Pacific Partnership, and its
implementation may provide increased access to selected Asian markets to suppliers
located in those countries.
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Source: Meat and Livestock Australia
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Pork Poultry Beef Sheepmeat
Global Meat Consumption (in Mn Tonne cwt)
2018 2022
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
16
-18
20
28
20
16
-18
20
28
20
16
-18
20
28
20
16
-18
20
28
20
16
-18
20
28
20
16
-18
20
28
20
16
-18
20
28
North America
Oceania Europe Latin America
and Caribbean
World Asia and Pacific
Africa
Per Capita Pork Consumption by Region
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Competitive position of Indian Swine Meat vis-à-vis global players
Crunching the numbers, the hog population of India had grown steadily over the last 50
years before dipping and holding just above the 10 million mark in 2018. Approximately 63
percent are raised in the poorer, less industrialised north-eastern region, with 70 percent
reared under traditional low-input, demand-driven smallholder production systems, where
animals are fed on available grains, vegetables, food scraps and kitchen waste.India’s pork
industry is slowly shedding its stigma, and its status in Indian culture is gradually
improving. While still dominated in numbers by the poorer economic classes, the scenario
is changing, and commercial pig farming is becoming a more commonplace and
acceptable occupation. As India moves to a more viable production of pigs through cross-
breeding of exotic stock, it is imperative that technology is utilised, sound herd
management systems are adhered to and healthy, clean, disease-free environments
become the rigid standard. However, India needs to focus on rearing genetically superior
quality animals, to enhance the farmer’s potential and meet customer’s demand for safe
and healthy meat.
Opportunities for India
Considering the growing import demand of Swine meat in these identified countries,
potential for India remains highest in case of China followed by Hong Kong, Philippines,
Mexico and Japan in HS 020649. In HS code 020329 the most gap remains in Japan
followed by South Korea and China.
-2,00,000 4,00,000 6,00,000 8,00,000
10,00,000 12,00,000 14,00,000 16,00,000
Potential for Export of Swine Meat (HS 020649) from India in 2020Opportunities
for India
estimated on
the basis of
World import of
Swine meat
versus the
actual export
from India.
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Importers
Value imported in 2018
(USD thousand)
Import from India
Gap
China
1,516,837 -
1,516,837
Hong Kong, China
770,119 -
770,119
Philippines
237,192 -
237,192
Mexico
98,306 -
98,306
Japan
70,168 -
70,168
Korea, Republic of
56,107 -
56,107
Viet Nam
41,160 -
41,160
Taipei, Chinese
32,386 -
32,386
Côte d'Ivoire
31,775 -
31,775
United States of America
29,641
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29,641
Denmark
27,938 -
27,938
France
25,828 -
25,828
Netherlands
20,383 -
20,383
Italy
16,015 -
16,015
United Kingdom
15,093 -
15,093
Angola
14,884 -
14,884
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Can India sustain in its export markets for Swine Meat?
Competition analysis for India - Existing Markets (HS Code 020329)
Country L2 Player Market Share %
CIF Average
Tariff FLP
USA India 0 5403 0% 5403
USA Poland 28.4 3,183 0.20% 3189.366
USA Denmark 18.8 3,961 0% 3968.922
USA Canada 15.2 2,355 0% 2355
USA Mexico 10.2 3417 0% 3417
Bhutan India 93.3 2,880 0% 2880
Bhutan Singapore 6.7 4,000 30% 5200
Sri Lanka India 0.7 3,000
30% 3900
Sri Lanka Belgium 42.7 2800 30% 3640
Sri Lanka Poland 39.2 3,600 30% 4680
Sri Lanka Netherlands 16.6 3455 30% 4491.5
Germany India 0.01 3,000 22% 3669
Germany Spain 30.4 2,957 0% 2957
Germany Netherlands 15.4 3,531 0% 3531
Germany Denmark 9.8 4066 0% 4066
Germany Austria 8.6 3,499 0% 3499
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How feasible will it be for Indian Swine Meat to enter newer growing markets?
Competitiveness analysis for India - Potential Markets (HS Code 020329)
Top 15 Destination Countries
India's share in
Destination Country's Imports
Unit Price (India) -
USD/tonne
Average Tariff
(India) - in %
Final Landing
Price India (USD/tonne)
Competing Countries in
Newer Destinations
Share of Competing Country in
Destination Country's Imports
Unit Price
Average tariff
Final Landing
Price
Japan 0 NA 31.90% NA
USA 28.30% 4759 31.90% 6277.121
Canada 24.00% 4771 0.40% 4790.084
Spain 12.10% 4787 0.40% 4806.148
Denmark 11.60% 4751 0.40% 4770.004
Mexico 9.70% 4772 0.40% 4791.088
Korea, Republic of
0 NA 24.40% NA
USA 30.40% 2,681 1.50% 2721.215
Germany 20.90% 3084 5.00% 3238.2
Spain 5.00% 3121 5.00% 3277.05
Chile 7.40% 4054 0.50% 4074.27
Canada 6.80% 3010 11.70% 3362.17
China 0 NA 12.00% NA
Brazil 23.50% 2,144 12.00% 2401.28
Spain 21.10% 1,789 12.00% 2003.68
Germany 8.00% 1793 12.00% 2008.16
Denmark 7.00% 2035 12.00% 2279.2
Canada 6.20% 1478 12.00% 1655.36
Hong Kong 0 NA 0.00% NA
Brazil 38.00% 2,228 0.00% 2228
China 26.00% 4546 0.00% 4546
USA 19.80% 2566 0.00% 2566
Netherlands 9.00% 3077 0.00% 3077
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USA 8.00% 3695 0.00% 3695
Australia 0 NA 24.00% NA
USA 41.50% 2,542 0.00% 2542
Denmark 8.00% 3041 0.00% 3041
Netherlands 5.30% 2990 0.00% 2990
Canada 2.70% 2642 0.00% 2642
Ireland 1.90% 3204 0.00% 3204
UK 0 NA 22.30% NA
USA 41.50% 2,542 0.00% 2542
Denmark 27.80% 3,041 0.00% 3041
Netherlands 16.50% 2,990 0.00% 2990
Canada 7.70% 2,642 0.00% 2642
Ireland 4.60% 3,104 0.00% 3104
Romania 0 NA 22.30% NA
Germany 24.00% 1,845 0.00% 1845
Spain 22.00% 2,551 0.00% 2551
Italy 14.00% 2,142 0.00% 2142
Hungary 10.00% 1,775 0.00% 1775
Poland 10.00% 1906 0.00% 1906
Mexico 0 NA 20.00% NA
USA 77.00% 2,251 0.00% 2251
Canada 14.00% 2,025 0.00% 2025
Spain 4.50% 2,158 20.00% 2589.6
Germany 7.00% 2,506 20.00% 3007.2
Chile 0.60% 1,935 0.00% 1935
Taipei 0 NA 20.00% NA
Netherlands 32.80% 2,251 0.00% 2251
Ireland 18.70% 2,025 0.00% 2025
Germany 16.10% 2,158 0.00% 2158
Belgium 9.50% 2,506 0.00% 2506
United Kingdom 5.90% 1,935 0.00% 1935
Colombia 0 NA 20.00% NA
Ireland 26.10% 2,251 0.00% 2251
Netherlands 14.00% 2,025 0.00% 2025
Argentina 9.50% 2,158 42.30% 3070.834
Poland 6.70% 2,506 0.00% 2506
France 6.60% 1,935 0.00% 1935
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Strategy to promote Indian Swine Meat exports
India needs to work on its quality for Swine meat and start rearing good quality animals
to increase its competitiveness in the global swine markets. India also needs to get the
FMD-free status which is a major requirement for most of the high value markets like
Japan, USA, China and EU countries.
The African Swine Fever (ASF) is likely to wipe out one-fourth of the pig populationfrom
the face of the earth which will pose significant food security issues in the world. This
outbreak in China and Eastern Europe has led countries like Russian federation ban
imports from EU countries while China’s retaliatory tariffs on US pork imports coupled
with rising pork prices due to short supply has created numerous opportunities for
Indian pork exporters.India needs to ramp up its products and export efforts to meet the
Swine meat requirements and fill the gap.
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