market insight - viet nam supply chainvietnamsupplychain.com/assets/images/files/170101 q4 2016...
TRANSCRIPT
HO CHI MINH CITY
WEDNESDAY, 4 JANUARY 2017
MARKET INSIGHT
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Vietnam Economy
Agenda
Infrastructure
Condominium
Ready-built Villa/Townhouse
Office
Retail
Investment
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
1. VIETNAM ECONOMY
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Vietnam Economy
Forget TPP, The Focus is
now on RCEP
V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Major Asset Classes
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec
2014 2015 2016
Ind
ex
Government Bond VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND Crude Oil
Source: HNC, Gold.org, SJC, SBV
V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
64% 8% 7%
21%
Manufacturing
Automobiles,Motorbikes
Real Estate
Others
FDI Reached a New High
25%
75%
Real estate
Others2007 2016
1. Cayman Islands invested US$315 million for an IP project in
Quang Ninh Province.
2. Long Thanh Amata City in Dong Nai received ~US$309
million from Thai Investor to build a service township
3. Samsung to invest US$300 million in a 21-storey building in
Hanoi.
4. TNR Holdings and a Russian partner signed the memo
regarding implement a US$300 million project in Hanoi.
Vietnam Registered FDI in 2016: USD24.4 billion (the highest since 2008)
Top FDI Investors, USD million, 2016 Major Real Estate Deals, 2016
7,036
2,590
2,419
1,875
1,860
South Korea
Japan
Singapore
China
Taiwan
V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
2. INFRASTRUCTURE MORE INVESTMENT IN TAN SON NHAT AIRPORT, THE EAST AND THE SOUTH
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Tan Son Nhat – Binh Loi –
Ring Road
5 storeys parking in
Tan Son Nhat airport
9,000 sm T2 terminal expansion
Tan Son Nhat
Airport Metro Line no.1 – Saigon bridge
Ca Cam Bridge
New Mien Dong bus station
project
East area
South area
H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
New Projects in 2017
En-Parking Lam Son
Lam Son Square, District 1
Site area: 1,410 sm
Storey: 9 floors
Car park: 168
Bach Dang Marina park
Ton Duc Thang street,
District 1
Site Area: 7.02 ha
Elevated road no.1
Route: Cong Hoa Intersection
– Dien Bien Phu
Length: 9.5km
Width: 17.5m
Investment: US$800 million
Metro route leading to Tan Son
Nhat International Airport
Route: Hoang Van Thu–
Airport
Length: 2km
Construction: 2019-2024
Investment: US$250 million
H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Metro Line No. 1 Update
1 Under construction
2 3 4 5 6 Under planning
Suoi Tien Station SHTP Station
Opera House Station Ben Thanh Station
An Phu Station Tan Cang Station
H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Airports
HCMC - 9,000 sm T2 terminal
expansion
Hai Phong – New Terminal Da Nang – International Terminal
under construction
Dong Nai – 3 new designs for
Long Thanh International Airport
Source: Retrieve on Internet on January, 2016
H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
3. CONDOMINIUM
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
NEW LAUNCH
37,419 units
10% y-o-y
• 46% mid-end, 29% high-end, xx% affordable
• 41% in the East, 34% in the South
Source: CBRE Research
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
• More balanced market: mid-end products accounted for 47% of total launch and 44% of total sales in
2016 (compared to 40% and 39% respectively in 2015).
• A small price adjustment: 4.6% y-o-y increase
• A good mixture of buyers: both end-users and investors, both local and foreign
Market Snapshot
9,145 units
34% q-o-q
33% y-o-y
2016 Q4/2016
NEW SALES
35,008 units
4%
y-o-y
11,941 units
11% y-o-y
2016 Q4/2016
52% q-o-q
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Mid-end segment is advancing, easing high-end oversupply fear
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Source: CBRE Research
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Un
its
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016
Luxury High-end
Mid-end Affordable
36% 40% 47%
NEW LAUNCH BY MARKET SHARE
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
North 7%
East 41% West
11% Central
8%
South
34%
The East and the South continued to take the lead
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
2016 NEW LAUNCH BY AREA 2016 NEW LAUNCH BY DISTRICT
D8 16%
Binh Thanh 12%
D7 12%
D2 11%
D9 11%
D1 7%
Others 31%
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No
. o
f S
old
Un
its
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Improvement in sales due to strong demand from both end-users and
investors
SOLD UNITS BY YEAR
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016
Units
New Launches Sold Units
SUPPLY vs SOLD UNIT - SMALLER GAP
Source: CBRE Research
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unsold
Units
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
9% 21%
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Improving absorption rate led to slower growth in inventory
ACCUMULATIVE INVENTORIES NET ABSORPTION RATE (*)
Source: CBRE Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net
Absorp
tion R
ate
(%
)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
(*) Net Absorption Rate = Sold units in the period/ (Unsold units in the period + New launches in the period)
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
~68.6% of new
launches sold
No. of Project Sold rate (%)
1
44
9
50
7
53
14
62
6
48
3
72
4
48
4
69
3
32
9
57
3
42
5
53
11
70
3
65
2
42
9
73
1
88
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Sales took place across all districts
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016
Pe
rcen
tage
ch
an
ge
(%
)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Large supply keeps price in check. The market is far from bubble
CHANGE IN PRIMARY SELLING PRICE
Source: CBRE Research
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Government policies remain polarized
The government’s focus will be on protecting buyers and boosting the lower end segment while curbing
property bubbles in the higher end segment.
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016
H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
• The market continues to welcome a big wave of supply, it will however swift toward a more affordable
market.
Market Outlook
FORECAST ON SUPPLY
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Ne
w la
un
ch s
upp
ly (
units)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Market Outlook (cont’d)
• In 2017, the price growth will mostly come from new top-tier projects at very prime locations, leading to an
increase of 5-10% for luxury and high-end segment.
• The price for mid-end and affordable segment will be stable as these markets target at end-users and
affordability will be the key issue.
FORECAST ON PRIMARY SELLING PRICE
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Pe
rce
nta
ge
ch
an
ge
(%
)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M
Market Outlook (cont’d)
• The luxury and high-end market likely see a small drop in absorption rate in 2017 as buyers need time to
get familiar with a higher price level while the mid-end and affordable market continue to have a good
absorption.
FORECAST ON SOLD UNITS AND ABSORPTION
0%
12%
24%
36%
48%
60%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
So
ld u
nits
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Absorption
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
4. LANDED PROPERTY READY-BUILT VILLA AND TOWNHOUSE
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Market Snapshot
LaVila
In Nha Be District
238 units
~US$1,506/sm
The Pegasuite
In District 8
69 units
~US$3,768/sm
Merita Khang Dien
In District 9
131 units
Soft launch
River Park
In District 9
176 units
Soft launch
H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E
• Most of 2016 new launches were from large-scale townships. • Stable absorption from both end-users and investors. • Price increased the most at suburban districts.
NEW LAUNCH IN Q4 2016
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
3,062
307
2,599
756
2016
Q4 2016
Launches Sales
0
500
1,000
1,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Ne
w S
upp
ly (
units)
2014 2015 2016
North 38%
East 44%
West 2%
Central
2%
South
14% -36% q-o-q
45% q-o-q
+40% y-o-y
H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E
Active New Supply, Especially in The East
+13% y-o-y
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Flat selling price
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016
Ave
rag
e a
skin
g p
rice
(U
S$
/lan
d s
m)
District 2 District 9 District 7 Others
US$ 3,145 US$ 1,697
10.1%
-2.7%
US$ 3,846
District 2 District 9 District 7 Others
Average selling price (y-o-y)
2.4%
6.5%
US$ 3,075 (*) (*): excl. District 1
H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Developers move further from CBD
• District 9 running out of cheap, good land
bank
• Developers move far East and South
• More townhouses of lower prices to be
developed
• Some developers tend to develop ready-
built houses instead of land plots
North
East
West
Central
South
H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Market Outlook
H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E
• Limited good location land bank.
• Future supply to be spread in different districts.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Ne
w S
upp
ly (
units)
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
FORECAST ON SUPPLY
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Ave
rag
e S
elli
ng
Price
(U
SD
/la
nd
sm
)
District 2 District 9 District 7 Others
Market Outlook
H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E
• Price expected to increase amid growing preference from buyers on landed properties
• Net absorption is expected to reach 60-65% for each year.
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
FORECAST ON PRIMARY SELLING PRICE
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
5. OFFICE
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Asking Rents
Grade A
1.7 %
q-o-q
• 46% mid-end, 29% high-end, xx% affordable
• 41% in the East, 34% in the South
Source: CBRE Research
H C M C O F F I C E
• Limited supply is recorded in CBD area as demand for these spaces continues to rise. • Grade A and Grade B both recorded a healthy net absorption (2,116 sm NLA and 13,092 sm NLA,
respectively). • Co-working Spaces and Business Centers are on the rise, with older buildings maximizing old retail
podiums to be turned into co-working spaces.
Market Snapshot
Grade B
5.4%
q-o-q Vacancy Rates
Grade A
0.3 ppts
q-o-q
Grade B
0 ppts
q-o-q
5.9%
y-o-y 6.2%
y-o-y
0.7 ppts
y-o-y
1.8 ppts
y-o-y
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Only two projects: Mapletree Business Center (District 7;30,000 sm GFA) & Ha Do (Tan Binh District; 14,000 sm GFA)
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016
Su
pp
ly (
NL
A s
m)
Grade A Grade B
H C M C O F F I C E
Limited Supply in 2016
OFFICE SUPPLY BY YEAR
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Incoming wave of Grade A Future Supply
Grade A CBD constructions to restart after a long time of being inactive, notably with SJC tower and Tax Center
H C M C O F F I C E
SAIGON CENTER P2
CBD
GFA: 40,000 sm
VIETTEL TRADE
CENTER
Non-CBD
GFA: 65,971 sm
ETOWN
CENTRAL
Non-CBD
GFA: 67,760 sm
2017
SPIRIT
OF SAIGON
CBD
GFA: 15,000 sm
Grade B
DEUTSCHES
HAUS
CBD
GFA: 38,621 sm
2020
Grade A
SJC TOWER
CBD
GFA: 38,000 sm
TAX CENTER
CBD
GFA: 35,000 sm
2018 - 2019
SAIGON M&C
CBD
GFA: 49,000
sm
Grade A
VIET CAPITAL
CENTER
CBD
GFA: 38,621
sm
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Overall Asking Rent increase y-o-y
Grade A
US$ 38.0
Grade B
US$ 21.0
Grade A: Upcoming new supply lowered average rent q-o-q
Grade B: Stable rental growth
+6.2%
Y-o-Y
+5.9 %
Y-o-Y
-1.7%
Q-o-Q
+5.4%
Q-o-Q
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
ASKING RENT BY YEAR
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40
2016
Q4
Q3
Q2
2015
Q1
Q4
Q3
2014
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Grade B Grade A
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Vacancy Rate decreases slightly, Net Absorption remains low
Q4 2016 Net absorption (Grade A + B) = 1,191 sm
Vacancy remains stable as the market absorbs the
remaining limited supply
Net Absorption:
-99%y-o-y
Vacancy:
-1.8 ppts y-o-y
Net Absorption:
-77% y-o-y
Vacancy:
- 0.7 ppts y-o-y
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016
Va
can
cy R
ate
Ne
t A
bsorp
tion
(
NL
A s
m)
Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B
Vacancy Rate - Grade A Vacancy Rate - Grade B
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
OFFICE PERFORMANCE BY QUARTER
Grade A Grade B
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Demand drivers continue the same trend
Banking/Insurance IT/Technology Pharmaceuticals
• High demand still comes from traditional sectors. • Tenants still display the same trend of looking forwards to moving into newer, better quality within CBD. • IT/Technology tenants has displayed a preference towards decentralized, campus style hub.
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Opportunities abound for the market
Ongoing Supply
• Excess supply coming from CBD and Non-CBD area
• Rents are expected to become more competitive
• Higher demand still comes for CBD
Flight to value
• Big occupiers to relocate and expand to higher quality buildings
Diversified Demand
• High demand from traditional sectors
• Start-up boom: Growth of co-working space
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
10 Existing Co-working Spaces and More to Come
Toong – Coming soon to Oxygen Mall in Vista An Phu
DreamPlex
US$27 – 90/ monthly pass
BigWork
US$95 monthly pass
WORK Saigon
US$356/ month/ private room Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Market Outlook
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F 2018 F 2019 F
Gra
de
A S
upp
ly (
NL
A, sm
)
• Older Grade A building is expected to see a shift of tenants as tenants flock to newer Grade A buildings.
• Grade B supply in both CBD and non-CBD is also expected to increase and provide more spaces into the market.
No N
ew
Su
pp
ly
No N
ew
Su
pp
ly
No N
ew
Su
pp
ly
No N
ew
Su
pp
ly
FORECAST ON SUPPLY
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
H C M C O F F I C E
• Grade A asking rent is expected to have a gradual increase as the new supply comes steadily each year.
• Because of the excess supply, vacancy rate may increase and then becoming stable as the market gradually absorb the new spaces.
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Va
can
cy R
ate
(%
)
Re
nt (U
S$
/sm
/mo
nth
)
Rent Vacancy Rate
Market Outlook
FORECAST ON PERFORMANCE
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
6. RETAIL
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
• 2016 welcomed the highest new annual supply in history, most in non-CBD areas. • Improvement in vacancy rate supported by stable rental rate in non-CBD areas. • Tenant mix was driven toward true customers’ demand.
H C M C R E T A I L
Market Snapshot
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ne
w S
upp
ly (
sm
)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016.
RETAIL SUPPLY BY YEAR
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Tax Plaza • District 1
• GFA: 34,000 sm
• Completion: 2020
Crescent Mall (P2) • District 7
• GFA: 18,000 sm
• Completion: 2018
Food Square • Tan Phu District
• GFA: 1,000 sm
• Completion: 2017
Garden Mall
(Thuan Kieu Plaza)
• District 5
• GFA: 19,200 sm
• Completion: 2018
Taka Plaza @ 23/9 Park • District 1
• 250 kiosks
• Completion: 2017
Q4 2016 – no new supply but busy construction activities
H C M C R E T A I L
Vincom Plaza
Le Van Viet
•District 9
•53,000 sm GFA
Vincom Plaza
Go Vap
•Go Vap District
•28,000 sm GFA
LotteMart Go Vap
•Go Vap District
•32,000 sm GFA
Aeon Mall
Binh Tan
•Binh Tan District
•114,000 sm GFA
Saigon Centre
Phase 2
•District 1
•50,000 sm GFA
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q1 2016
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Map of Significant Future Supply
Estella Heights
• Hanoi Highway
• 26,000 sm NLA
• To open in 2018
Tax Center
• Le Loi –
Nguyen Hue
Str.
• 35,000 sm GFA
• To open in
2020
Vincom Center Mall
• Tan Cang, BT
Dist.
• 59,000 sm NLA
• To open in end
2017
Union Square
• Dong Khoi Str.
• 40,000 sm GFA
• To open in
2017
The Spirit of Saigon
• Pham Ngu Lao Str.
• 48,000 sm GFA
• To open in 2018
H C M C R E T A I L
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Improvement in vacancy rate
H C M C R E T A I L
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016
Va
ca
ncy R
ate
(%
)
Ne
t A
bsorp
tion
(sm
)
Net absorption Vacancy rate
-0.5% q-o-q
-1.8% y-o-y
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.
NET ABSORPTION AND VACANCY RATE
𝑽𝒂𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 Q4/2016
• Low net absorption in Q4 due to limited supply • Improvement in vacancy rate seen majorly in retail podiums (Vista Walk in D2)
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Retail rents
0 100 200050100150
CBD Non-CBD
H C M C R E T A I L
1.7% q-o-q
15% y-o-y
𝑪𝑩𝑫
1.2% q-o-q
0.1% y-o-y
𝑵𝒐𝒏 − 𝑪𝑩𝑫
2016
Q4
Q3
Q2
2015
Q1
Q4
Q3
2014
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
ASKING RENT (US$ per NLA sm on ground and first floor, excl. tax and service charge)
• CBD areas recorded the strongest rate of growth as a number of new leases were signed by international retailers and space in these areas remained limited
• Landlords in non-CBD malls maintain rents flat in and effort to retain existing tenants and attract new tenants amid increasing supply in these areas
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Expansion of bazaar and convenience stores due to strong consumer
demand for F&B and necessities
Rubik Zoo
District 1
Oxygen Mall
District 2
Vingroup introduced Vincom+
Taka Plaza @ 23/9 Park
District 1
Food Square
Tan Phu District
H C M C R E T A I L
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Growing spending following Vietnam’s receptivity of international
shopping trends
Vietnam:
20% use phones to shops.
30% shop online in 2020.
Source: Nielsen Research, 2015
H C M C R E T A I L
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Ne
w S
upp
ly (
NL
A, sm
)
Market Outlook
H C M C R E T A I L
• The development pipeline remains considerable with 500,000 sm NLA to be added in the next three years, mostly in 2017 and 2018.
• Shopping centres and retail podiums are the major future supply
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.
FORECAST ON SUPPLY
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Va
can
cy R
ate
(%
)
Re
nt (U
S$
/sm
/mo
nth
)
Rent Vacancy Rate
Market Outlook (cont’)
H C M C R E T A I L
• Rents will see a marginal drop due to anticipated new openings in non-CBD areas during 2017-2018 and recover in 2019 with new supply coming online in CBD area.
• A small increase in the vacancy rate in 2017 due to new supply before gradually being absorbed afterwards
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.
FORECAST ON PERFORMANCE
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
7. INVESTMENT
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Major Inves tment Dea l s in Q4 2016
Sofitel Legend Metropole
Hotel Hanoi
VINACAPITAL VIETNAM OPPORTUNITY FUND LIMITED
►► JV BETWEEN VINACAPITAL AND WARBURG PINCUS LLC
@ 50% STAKE US$ 100 MIL.
364-KEY HOTEL
Hanoi
Casuarina Cove
Vietnam
KEPPEL LAND
►►HUNG PHU RE INV.
60% STAKE @ US$ 24.1 MIL.
120 VILLAS
HCMC
Riviera Cove
HUNG PHU RE INV.
►►KEPPEL LAND
40% STAKE @ US$ 14.5 MIL.
96 VILLA
HCMC
I N V E S T M E N T
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Major Inves tment Dea l s in Q4 2016
I N V E S T M E N T
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
Inves tment Dea l s in 2016
Hanoi
US$310 million
US$502 million
HOTEL AND DVELOPMENT SITES PLAY KEY ROLE
Size of the circle represents total transaction value in 2016
I N V E S T M E N T
33%
21%
24%
14%
4% 4%
Hotel
Development site
Mixed-use
Office
Retail
Others
Pink: 2016 trasaction value
Grey: 2015 transaction value
Ho Chi Minh City
US$ 493 million
US$294 million
Other province
US$ 84 million
US$307 million
Source: RCA, retrieved in 3 January 2017.
Thank You
Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T +84 8 3824 6125
F +84 8 3823 8418
Email: [email protected]