market for property disposition at year 15 and earlier november 20, 2007 robert l. sheppard senior...
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Market For Property Disposition at Year 15 and Earlier
November 20, 2007
Robert L. SheppardSenior Vice President of Investments
Tax Credit Group of Marcus & Millichap
State of Today’s Sales Market
• Deals Are Getting Done
– Yield buyers carry the day.
– Resyndications are exceptions.
– 100% partnership purchases account for “resyndication” pipeline.
• LIHTC property prices have decreased but not as much as the media is
conveying about market rate values.
– What you see is what you get UW, no Proforma.
• Surety bond is gone, but is it?
– Sellers still want / need protection.
• “Run & Gun” is over, now it is “Grind it Out”.
What is the Size of the Market?
Huge opportunity within existing portfolio for both sellers and
buyers.
2009: 652,000 Units Out of the 15th Year. (447,000 w/
Extended Use)
What Deals Are Getting Done?
• 80/20 Rule – there are exceptions
• GP sales years 7-10 .
• Fee simple cash flow sales years 10+.
• 100% partnership sales years 10-14.
– Preserve 10 year ownership.
– Wait for credit market to return or 9% execution.
– Keeps options open.
What Are Prices?
Tax Credit Group Assignment National Cap Rate Averages for “Current Income”
2008 2007 2006
Exit / Terminal 7.75% 7.93% 8.07%
Closed 6.99% 6.95% 5.46%
Escrow 7.73% - -
Listed 7.77% - -
Represents only Tax Credit Group of Marcus & Millichap activity:•50,000 units over 220 transactions•Almost $2 billion in LIHTC sales
Crystal Ball
• Believe pricing has stabilized, assuming some other shoe doesn’t drop.
• Price is debt dependant – negative change will move prices up but not down.
• Need Credit Price to increase for resyndication to be competitive with yield
buyers in markets without prevalent soft money.
• LIHTC product makes up approximately 22% of the multi-family rental stock
in the United States.
– Approximately 50% of rental production in the last 4 years.
• Institutional equity will start to focus on this market segment for yield
purchases.
• Secondary property sales market will be forced to become more efficient
over time.
– LIHTC will become a “traded deal type.
Market For Property Disposition at Year 15 and Earlier
Robert L. SheppardSenior Vice President of Investments
Tax Credit Group of Marcus & Millichap
Additional information available at: www.tcg-mm.com