market development of poland and morocco and risk …€¦ · market development of poland and...

Market Development of Poland and Morocco and risk outside the traditional mature markets

London 10-12-2015 Eugenio de Blasio SPG Europe Congress

Strictly private & confidential 2

Executive Summary 1. Green Arrow Capital Group

2. Where is GAC positioned in the value chain

3. The Polish Opportunity

4. The Maroc Opportunity

5. Issuing a Minibond

Agenda

A Specialized Renewables Boutique

A specialized Renewables boutique active in EMEA and Americas. Industry pioneers, with over 110 years combined experience, founded this unique company, to grasp the very essence of Renewables. Their values are Innovation, Reliability and Integrity, whereas the Companies’ motto is “Global Expertise with Local Execution”. Formerly, founding members and top managers of a leading European Renewables IPP

The Team is among the most experienced in this field having worked 10 years as developers, constructors and operators of solar and wind parks in Italy, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Poland, Morocco and Mexico. They have managed over 400 MWp of installed capacity, assessed 3.3 GW of assets

Our mission is to bridge the gap between the industry and financial Investors that are keen to enter into this asset class, which can no longer be ignored

The Team has successfully closed over 70 transactions in Renewables in the past 7 years, having successfully raised equity and debt finance in excess of € 2 billion


Strictly private & confidential

International Coverage “Global Expertise, Local Execution”

Green Arrow Capital has offices in the UK (London), Italy (Rome and Milan), Spain (Madrid), and Poland (Warsaw).

4


Executive Summary 1. Green Arrow Capital Group

2. Where is GAC positioned in the value chain




Agenda

Renewables Investment Business Cycle

6 Strictly private & confidential

Renewable energy business investment cycle/ de-risking process

Ris

ks

Inve

stor

s

Engineering firms Developers Construction companies

EPC / Utilities Growth capital Private Equity Infrastructure funds

Buy & hold Institutional Investors

High risk High return on

minimum capital deployed

Medium risk Manageable

complexity Capital intensive on a

deal-by-deal basis

Low risk / capital intensive Operational improvement Consolidation play at portfolio level Financial engineering

Phas

e Phase I Development

Phase II Construction

PRIMARY MARKET

Phase III Operation

SECONDARY MARKET

Where is GAC positioned in the Value Chain:

Source GAC

Current Market Opportunity

HERE HERE


Where challenges create opportunities

A renewable emerging market and/or a financial mature market as UK, USA, China, Middle

East…

Ideally lacking in natural resources

Italy Poland Morocco and other North-African spots Chile

Ideally low dependency from nuclear power

Good renewable energy sources: wind/solar irradiation

GDP growth and Government stability (political analysis)


Executive Summary 1. Examples:


3. The Moroc Opportunity


Agenda


The Polish Opportunity

The Development of the Polish Solar PV market will be the last important opportunity of a regulated European solar energy market in 2016 Regulatory regime drafts have been circulated recently and the Green Certificates

system will apply for large Ground Mounted and Rooftops plants. Adjusting forward-looking tariffs according to falls in technology costs and targeted volumes will enable to develop Solar PV plants with attractive returns

Poland is expected to build over 2GW of Solar PV capacity in the next 1 years with investments in excess of EUR 1,5 bn at attractive returns

Poland is an emerging

Solar PV market which will rapidly moving to a mature stage once the New Energy Law will be issued


Polish Opportunity – Solar irradiation

From 900 to 1200 Hours of

irradiation

Despite its climate, Poland is an interesting country that has high potential for Solar PV

In fact,

Germany, with similar climate conditions, is the biggest market worldwide and has developed over 24GW

GAC has developed one of the largest pipelines in Poland (>100MW) at different stages of development






Agenda


100

660 GDP growth

Inflation

Foreign Direct Investment* growth * Net flow of incoming FDI

Occupancy rate 9,9% 2014

1,1% 2014

#2 African Country of the future 2013-2014

in Africa

#1 in 2011 - 2012

Incoming Foreign Direct Investment flow

(base 100=1990-1999)

1990-1999 2010-2013

Source: Office des Changes

x 6.6

2,6 % 2014

4,8% 2001 - 2013

1,8% 2001 - 2013

8% 2014

38% 2001 - 2013

Maroc Opportunity - Macroeconomic background


Maroc Opportunity - Great potential of solar and wind energy

> 5,5 kWh/m² 5,3 à 5,5 kWh/m² 5,0 à 5,3 kWh/m² 4,7 à 5,0 kWh/m² < 4,5 kWh/m²

Great potential for solar energy • Over 3.000 hours of light per year • East coast with huge irradiation power

(Figuig, Oujda and Erfoud) • Ideal location for CSP projects

Estimated total potential wind power> 25.000 MW • Atlantica coast (Dakhla, Laâyoune, Tarfaya, Taza

and Essaouira): wind from 7 to 10 m/s • Northern coast (Taza e Tétouan): wind from 8 to 11 m/s • Atlas mountains: huge potential

Irradiation map Wind map

>6 m/s 5-6 m/s 4-5 m/s 3-4 m/s <3 m/s Unknown potential

Fonte: Agenzia nazionale per lo sviluppo delle energie rinnovabili e dell’efficienza energetica (ADEREE)

• Dakhla

Laâyoune •

• Essaouira

Tarfaya •

• Taza

• Tétouan

Ouarzazate •

• Oujda

• Figuig

• Erfoud


Maroc Opportunity – The wind farms

Fonte: Agenzia nazionale per lo sviluppo delle energie rinnovabili e dell’efficienza energetica (ADEREE)

A wind power potntial estimted 25.000 MW, of which almost 6.000 MW achievable within 2030

Target 2020 • 2.000 MW

• 6.600 GWH Electric

producion

• 3,5 billion $ Investment

• 1,5 million TEP* Annual savings

• 5,6 million tons CO2 emissions avoided/year

The Moroccan wind plan figures Main wind farms

5 new wind farms: - Tanger2 (150 MW) - Koudia II Tetouan (300 MW) - Taza (150 MW) - Tiskrade a Laayoune (300 MW) - Boujdour (100 MW)






Agenda


Green Advisory: the expert in the Minibond market Green Advisory (“GA”) is a specialized financial boutique undertaking financial advisory services

spanning M&A, capital raising and debt structuring, on behalf of selected clients

The team provides a unique breadth of technical and financial expertise, particularly in the solar sector: it comprises professionals with extensive bulge-bracket Investment Banking, strategy and asset management experience, bringing a track record of closed transaction totaling some € 2.0 bn

Green Advisory’s track record includes sponsoring and securing the first “Green” Mini Bond on the ExtraMOT segment, regulated by Borsa Italiana/LSE (“Green Bond 1, 5% 2014-2019” con ISIN n° IT0005020711)

GA is Partner Equity Markets of the Italian Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana S.p.A.), working with the latter supporting the development of the Italian entrepreneurial system through the assistance in the Mini Bond issuance process

GA assist SMEs in the structuring of transactions involving the issuance of loans represented by debt securities and the admission to trading of the same title on the segment ExtraMOT PRO


A dedicated market platform: ExtraMOT PRO

In February 2013, the Italian Stock Exchange (part of LSE) launched the ExtraMOT Pro segment, a new segment dedicated to the listing of bonds, commercial papers and project bonds

Access requirements for SMEs are simpler and lighter compared to those requested for the

admission on other regulated platforms

COST EFFECTIVENESS

• Allows SMEs to benefit from tax advantages of the new regulatory framework, both through low direct and indirect costs

FLEXIBILITY

• Flexible and streamlined regulatory approach allows SMEs to shape their own access to the market in a "tailor-made" way

VISIBILITY

• Internationally recognized brand and wide network of domestic and international intermediaries through which it is connected

REASONS FOR LISTING A MINIBOND ON EXTRAMOT PRO:

Source: Italian Stock Exchange website

Limitate listing costs


Minibond as a fitting debt instrument in Energy and Infrastracture sectors

Durable and predictable Cash Flows

Presence of a sound and industrial asset

Low correlation with traditional stock markets

Low risk, similar to the sovereign risk

Natural defense against inflation

Strategic importance of the Energy and Infrastructure sector

Represents not only a way for raising new finance but also a debt refinancing

opportunity


This document is intended exclusively for qualified investors, who have access under an individual/bilateral contract Green Arrow Capital; it is not deemed for the general public or other people not specifically identified.

This material is confidential and can not be reproduced or circulated without the prior written consent of Radiant. The manner

of circulation and distribution may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries.

Investors should consult their advisors and analyse the presentation and other technical material with their independent specialist.

This document is intended for information purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities, nor does it constitute an endorsement with respect to any investment area or vehicle.

Past performance (actual or hypothetical) is no guarantee of future results, and future results may not meet our expectations due to variety of economic, market and other Risk Factors.

This document has been arranged by Radiant, on the strength of publicly available information, internally elaborated data and other third party sources deemed reliable. The information obtained from public sources or third parties has not been verified by Radiant that, therefore, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and reliability of these.

All information contained herein is current only as of the earlier of the date hereof and the date on which it is delivered by Radiant to the intended recipient, or such other date indicated with respect to specific information, and Radiant assumes no obligation or responsibility for the accuracy of the information after such date. Radiant has no obligations or responsibility to update or supplement any of the information contained herein.

Any projection, estimate or market outlook contained in this document is purely a forecast, is based on certain assumptions and could not envisage all possible relevant factors. There is no guarantee that these projections, prospects or estimates will be realized.

Any opinions expressed on investments and markets as well as the analysis contained in this document may not reflect the overall view of Radiant. Different opinions can be formulated based on different investment approaches, objectives, views or philosophies.

The only legally binding terms which regulate the funds managed by Radiant, including the description of the risk factors, objectives, investment policies, charges and expenses, are contained in the legal documentation of each Fund (statute or regulation and management prospectus), if applicable.

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