market cycle update personal lines greg ciezadlo, fcas, maaa farmers insurance group casualty...
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Market Cycle UpdatePersonal Lines
Greg Ciezadlo, FCAS, MAAA
Farmers Insurance Group
Casualty Actuarial Society
Spring Meeting 2002 – San Diego, California
Today’s Topics
• Historical Overview– Past cycles– The current downturn– Why cycles?
• Insurer reaction to the current cycle– Pricing– Product– Market availability– Segmentation
• Future outlook for personal lines insurers
…worst year ever in 2001 as the industry recorded an after-tax loss for the first time
in history.
P/C Net Income After Taxes1993-2001 ($ Millions)
$19,316
$10,870
$20,598
$24,404
$36,819
$30,773
$21,865$20,223
-$7,921-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
2001 was the first year ever with a full year net loss
Key Drivers
• Confluence of events
– Insurance cycles
– Capital markets
– Investment yields
– TORTure
– Mold
– WTC/Catastrophes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
U.S.
*Estimate from I.I.I. Groundhog Survey.Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
Growth in Net Premiums Written (All P/C Lines)
2000: 5.1%
2001: 8.1%
2002 Forecast: 14.7%*
The underwriting cycle went AWOL in the 1990s.
It’s Back!
Auto Repair Costs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01
Pe
rce
nta
ge
gro
wth
Cost of repairing vehicles Inflation rate
Construction Material Costs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01
Per
cen
tag
e g
row
th
Cost of Housing Construction Material Inflation Rate
HO insurance costs & cost of home repairs
2.20%
5.30%
1.50%
3.4%4.1%
2.4%
3.20%
7.20%
6.00%
Overall CPI (Inflation) Home Repairs HO Insurance
1999 2000 2001* *2001 Estimate
Investment environment
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
DJIA S&P 500
-19%
-31%
March 2000 – December 2001
$0
$9
$18
$27
$36
$45
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Net Investment Income
Facts
1997 Peak = $41.5B
1998 = $39.9B
1999 = $38.9B
2000= $40.7B
2001 = $37.1E
Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
Bil
lion
s
(US
$)
Pricing & underwriting problems were exacerbated by declining investment income
Short-term interest rates are under 2%!
TORT-ure• Asbestos• “Toxic” Mold• Aftermarket Parts• Lead• Arsenic Treated Lumber• Construction Defects• Guns• What’s Next?• September 11!!!
Average Jury Awards1994 vs. 2000
419759
187 333
1,140 1,185
1,744
1,168
1,727
269698
3,482 3,566
6,817
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Overall BusinessNegligence
VehicularLiability*
PremisesLiability
MedicalMalpractice
WrongfulDeath
ProductsLiability
($00
0)
1994 2000
Source: Jury Verdict Research; Insurance Information Institute.
Stachybotrys
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001*
Source: Texas Department of Insurance * 2001 (estimate based on Jan. - Mar. data)
Texas: Paid Losses for Water Damage Claims
In M
illi
ons
9/11/2001
U.S. insured catastrophe losses
0
10
20
30
40
50
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01*
$ Billions
95
100
105
110
115
120
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
02**
P/C Industry Combined Ratio2000 = 110.1
2001 Estimate = 116.0
2002 Forecast* = 108.0
Combined Ratios
1970s: 100.3
1980s: 109.2
1990s: 107.7
Sources: A.M. Best; III
* Based on III 2002 Groundhog Forecast
Personal Lines Combined Ratios
99.5101.0101.1
109.4
103.5
108.2109.5
111.4
107.0
126.0
105103
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
*Breakeven Ratio: Reflects AY results, includes investment income; assumes 4% interest rate.Source: A.M. Best
97 98 99 00 01E BE*
97 98 99 00 01E BE*
PERSONAL AUTO HOMEOWNERS
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01
Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2001
Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
Bil
lion
s
(US
$)
Surplus Peaked at $336.3 Billion in 1999
•Surplus decreased 8.7% in 2001 to $289.6 Billion.
•Surplus is now lower than at year-end 1997.
Why do we still have cycles?
• Lag between emerging trends and insurers’ ability to react in the market
• Continued reliance on investment income to offset underwriting losses
• Reluctance to lead the pack• Incentives in place based on the past, not on the future • New and unusual events or coverage
– Tort liability crises in the 70’s and 80’s– High inflation in the 70’s– Mold
• Catastrophes
The Industry’s Reaction
• Price increases• New business limitations• Coverage modifications and/or exclusions• More sophisticated segmentation systems
– Insurance scoring using credit information
– Complex tiering plans using scoring plus other variables
– Introduction of rating plans in HO focused on the individual not the property
Average Price Change of Personal Lines Renewals
6%
7%
6%
6%3%
4%
1%
5%
4%
1%-1%
2%
0%
2%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Homeowners
Personal Auto
2002* 2001* Fall 2000 Spring 2000 Fall 99 Spring 99 Fall 98*III estimatesSource: Conning, III
The Texas Result: A Lesson to be Learned4 out of the 5 top insurers stopped writing homeowners
HOB insurance policies due to the mold impact on business
Market Restrictions
• Tighter new business underwriting rules
• New business quotas
• Highly segmented rate changes
• Weaker nonstandard auto market
• Stop writing new business
• Withdrawal from the line
• Mold exclusions and water damage limitations
• Use of insurance scoring models for acceptance or retention
PERSONAL AUTO HOMEOWNERS
Mold-Induced Rate Increases Will Impact Affordability in
TX*
1.72%
2.40%2.60%
0.86%
$879 $1,230 $1,319
$481
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
TX TX--40% Hike TX--50% Hike US
Pre
miu
m a
s %
of
Inco
me
*As a % of the median family of 4’s income. Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
In summary:
Reasons Why Market Will Remain Hard
• Price increases by market leaders• The Homeowners line has a long, tough road ahead to return to
profitability– Large price increases– Catastrophes remain problematic– Will product suffer from affordability or availability issues?
• Auto is in better shape, but …– Cost pressures from Diminished Value, OEM, etc.– Influence of legislation and court decisions on liability cases
• Uncertain investment future• Wall Street pressure for short-term profits
Where we are heading…
…conditions are set for improved results in 2002 as: •pricing environment continues
to harden appreciably
•policy coverage terms and conditions become more restrictive.
Outlook for 2002: Personal Lines
99.5101.0101.1
109.4
103.5
108.2109.5
111.4
107.0
126.0
106.3
117.5
105103
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
*Breakeven Ratio: Reflects AY results, includes investment income; assumes 4% interest rate.Source: A.M. Best
97 98 99 00 01E 02E BE*
97 98 99 00 01E 02E BE*
PERSONAL AUTO HOMEOWNERS
Market Cycle UpdatePersonal Lines
Greg Ciezadlo, FCAS, MAAA
Farmers Insurance Group
Casualty Actuarial Society
Spring Meeting 2002 – San Diego, California