market analysis of liquefied gas industry upto 2030

Market Analysis Of Liquefied Gas Industry Up To 2030

EXECUTIVE MBA IN SHIPPING AND LOGISTICS

(THE BLUE MBA)

CLASS OF 2015

Module: 03

(Final Version)

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LIQUEFIED GAS INDUSTRY UPTO 2030

By: Capt. Ayan Banerjee

Coach: Dr. Stein Erik Gronland


Capt. Ayan Banerjee Final Version of 42

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Human being has always been engaged in trade to meet their needs, from barter

system to today’s e-commerce.

Energy transport is an important part of international trade. Creating opportunities to

expand the free energy related trade remains a vital part of national economies

around the world. Expanding trade opportunities helps economies grow and

increases the prosperity of people around the world

Energy-related trades are fundamentally the same as that of other products traded

globally on a daily basis. Gas Transport serves as the vital link to this energy

transport. Three - fourth of the world being covered with water, transport by sea is the

most economical solution.

In present scenario, the metamorphosis from fossil fuel to clean fuel is easily visible.

With this transformation and the recent “Energy Revolution” the gas market has

tremendous potential for future growth.



TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Figures 5

1. Introduction 6 – 7

1.1 Objective 6

1.2 Methodology 7

1.3 Scope and Limitation 7

2. Gas Analysis 7 – 10

2.1 SWOT Analysis 8

2.2 LPG Fleet at a Glance 9

2.3 LNG Fleet at a Glance 10

2.4 Fleet Comparison 10

3. Gas Shipping Market 11 – 21

3.1 Freight Market 11 - 12

3.2 Sale and Purchase Market 12 - 13

3.3 New Building Market 14 - 20

3.4 Demolition Market 20 - 21

3.5 Market Trend 21

4. Gas Fleet Development 22

5. Builders of Gas Ships 23

6. Merchant of Gas Ships 24



7. Demand and Supply of Gas 25 – 38

7.1 LPG Importers 26

7.2 LPG Exporters 27

7.3 LNG Importers 28

7.4 LNG Exporters 29

7.5 Major Global Developments 30

7.6 Gas World Trade 31 - 34

7.7 Natural Gas – Production Forecast 35

7.8 Natural Gas – Consumption Forecast 36

7.9 Gas – Sector Consumption Forecast 37 - 38

8. Need for Gas 38 - 39

8.1 World 38

8.2 Brazil 38

8.3 China 38

8.4 Europe 38

8.5 India 39

8.6 Middle East 39

8.7 Russia 39

8.8 America 39

9. Unconventional Sources – Future Suppliers 39 – 41

9.1 Sour Gas 39

9.2 Tight Gas 39

9.3 Shale Gas 40 - 41

10. Conclusion 41

List of References 42

Appendices



LIST OF FIGURES



1. INTRODUCTION

The world is highly driven by energy. It is a part and parcel of life and the growing

economy. Energy is essential for fuelling vehicles, heating and cooling homes or

powering appliances used for daily living.

The creed for energy is constantly changing and this change is dramatically

transforming the energy landscape. The world is daily becoming energy-efficient. It

can be seen that “The Global Village” has opened its doors to innovation with the

very idea of “Making the Earth an Eco Friendly Place for the Future Generation”. Be it

Transport, Power, Industry or use of Social Amenities “Go Green” is the call.

Gas carriers are the Torch Bearers of this Green Concept. LPG / LNG is presently

used in various industries such as transport, power, petrochemical, refineries, as well

as agricultural sector and residential use there by reducing the “Global Carbon Foot

Print”. Gas, be it Natural or Petroleum is “The Second Most Important Energy Source

after Oil”

Compared to the traditional shipping, gas carriers are of the younger generation.

Emerging in the 1950s it has an immense potential to restructure the very track of the

roller coaster named “Globalization”. The potential of this so-called “New Sector”

cannot be underestimated, more so when there is a call for metamorphosis from the

fossil fuel to clean fuel.

1.1 OBJECTIVE

This assignment is an analysis of the developments in gas market, the world fleet

profile and its impact on the four shipping markets.

It analyses the potential of the gas market and its footprint on Global Energy

Conservation.

It focuses on the unconventional sources of gas extraction and subsequent

transportation, which could drive the market and cater to future demands.

It concludes on the expected growth of the gas market, looking from the present

scenario.



1.2 METHODOLOGY

This assignment is broadly split into four (04) segments.

The first segment highlight’s the world’s energy drive and the role of gas carrier in the

“Energy Revolution”.

The second segment analyses the various shipping market of gas carrier. It

emphasizes on the vital role, gas as a commodity plays in the various sectors and

worldwide energy requirement.

The third segment introduces to the unconventional sources of gas and global

development surrounding the conventional and unconventional gas market. It

focuses on the demand of gas in present scenario.

The final segment attempts to conclude on the expected growth of the gas market.

1.3 SCOPES AND LIMITATION

This assignment is focused on the development of the gas market till 2030.

This assignment has drawn information from data sources of Clarkson Shipping

Intelligence, Enerdata Global Energy Intelligence and BP Statistical Review of World

Energy.

2. GAS ANALYSIS

The emergence of these specialized vessels predominantly occurred, as “One Size

Fits All” did not work for gas cargoes. Although in the native stage they were carried

in liners or tramps often with the help of some special investments, but that gravely

compromised the standard of service and the quality of the cargo.

The vital fact of this specialized trade is not just about the ship design; rather

adapting the shipping organization to the needs of a specific customer group and

cargo flow. Setting up a specialized shipping operation is a major commitment as

these ships are often more expensive than conventional vessels. The market

demands the providers of this service to have close association with the cargo

shippers.



2.1 SWOT ANALYSIS

Strength: Gas is a clean fuel with a high supply demand potential. There is abundant

reserve to cater to the future demands atleast till 2030 using proven technology to

extract the unconventional sources.

Weakness: High capital expenditure and stringent mandatory regulations makes this

sector highly complex. It sometime lacks in long term firm contracts and also has long

implementation schedule.

Opportunity: There are plenty of opportunities in this sector with new shipping routes

opening up leading to new trade markets. There are abundant unconventional

sources and new technological advancements to harness these.

Threat: The greatest threat is the difficulty in obtaining local regulatory approval for

exploration and exploitation of these resources. Gas trade also competes on price

regime with other sources of energy. Price volatility and fiscal instability also hinders

the growth.



2.2 LPG FLEET AT A GLANCE

The graph focuses tremendous growth in the LPG fleet and the rising demand for

these ships. Over the period 1996 – 2013 the fleet developed significantly from 864

vessels in 1996 to 1240 in 2013, denoting a growth of 43.5%, whilst over the same

period, there was a total of 744 deliveries with an annual average of 41 and a total of

282 demolitions with an annual average of 16.

Order books and new building contracts placed, over the period 1996 – 2013 shows

that 867 contracts were placed with an annual average of 48, whilst over the same

period 1796 vessels were ordered with an annual average of 100. (Clarkson, 2014)



2.3 LNG FLEET AT A GLANCE

The graph focuses tremendous growth in the LNG fleet and the rising demand for

these ships.

Over the period 1996 – 2013 the fleet developed significantly from 89 vessels in 1996

to 372 in 2013, denoting a growth of 317.9%, whilst over the same period, there was

a total of 313 deliveries with an annual average of 17 and a total of 20 demolitions

with an annual average of 1.

Order books and new building contracts placed, over the period 1996 – 2013 shows

that 415 contracts were placed with an annual average of 23, whilst over the same

period 1096 vessels were ordered with an annual average of 61. (Clarkson, 2014)

2.4 FLEET COMPARISON



3. GAS SHIPPING MARKET

The foundation of the seaborne gas trade rests on four close-knit pillars / markets;

each though trading in different commodity influences the dynamics of the trade.

These markets are as stated below:

The Freight Market

The Sale and Purchase Market

The New Building Market and lastly

The Demolition Market

3.1 FREIGHT MARKET

As the name suggest, it trades in the seaborne gas transport. This is the trendsetter,

which has its impression on the other markets.

It provides freight revenue, the main source of cash for the shipowners. Freight rates

integrate supply and demand.

When there is a shortage in supply of ships the freight rates rises and stimulates the

shipowners to provide more transport and when the ships are in abundance the rates

fall forcing inefficient ships out of trade.

BALTIC EXCHANGE ASSESSMENT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

RAS TANURA ‐ CHIBA ($ / T) 25.79 28.74 35.57 40.77 47.77 37.16 42.27 22.04 35.23 55.50 55.89 58.97

FULLY REFRIGERATED LPG CARRIER 44 K MT

The Baltic Exchange Rate Assessment obtained from Clarkson Shipping Intelligence

Network, for a Fully Refrigerated 44,000 MT LPG Carrier on this route highlights the

increase in rates. Over the period 2002 – 2013 the annual freight rates increased

form 25.79 USD in 2002 to 58.97 USD in 2013, denoting an annual growth of 11.69%

and an average annual rate is 40.48 USD. (Clarkson, 2014)



SAUDI ARABIA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Propane ($ / Tonne) 296.75 272.92 250.08 298.58 347.92 426.83 510.33 600.17 768.33 502.92 708.75 827.08 913.75 832.50

Butane ($ / Tonne) 546.75 247.25 235.33 288.42 354.00 436.75 513.83 616.58 784.58 519.58 718.75 870.00 916.67 847.00

CONTRACT PRICE

Source: Clarkson Shipping Intelligence Network

This graph over the period 2000 – 2013 implies that price of Butane in 2000 was 250

USD more than that of Propane. Whilst over a period 2001 – 2003 Butane was

marginally cheaper compared to Propane. The prices of these two cargoes have

been gradually increasing with Butane being slightly costlier than Propane from 2004

onwards. Over the same period, price reached the peak with Propane selling at

913.75 USD / Ton, (rise of 207.9%) and Butane at 916.67 USD / Ton (rise of 67.7%)

in 2012. Prices were low in 2009 with Propane selling at 502.92 USD / Ton and

Butane at 519.58 USD / Ton.

With world economy growing stronger and regions developing, trade is gaining pace

and freight rate seems likely to rise.

The hike of 128.65% in freight rate over the period 2002 - 2013, for a 44,000 MT fully

refrigerated is an example of this. Increase in demand could lead to price rise as

evident from above graph - as of 2013 propane price increased by 180.6% since

2002 and butane price increased by 54.9%. (Clarkson, 2014)

3.2 SALE AND PURCHASE MARKET

Trading in second hand ships the niche of this market is that ships worth millions of

dollars are traded like common goods of a country market and it thrives on price

volatility. The advantage of buying a second hand ship is that it is immediately

available which in turn leverages the price, sometimes making them more costly than

new buildings. (Stopford, 2010)



GAS CARRIER SALE AT A GLANCE

Total LNG1912%

Total LPG13388%

Total LNG

Total LPG

NUMBER / SHIP TYPE


152 vessels changed ‘hands’ in this market as of 2013. Out of these 152 vessels 19

were LNG and 133 were LPG. (Clarkson, 2014)

LPG CARRIER SALE AT A GLANCE

Ethylene1410%

Fully Ref5235%

Semi Ref3826%

Pressurized4329%

Ethylene Fully Ref Semi Ref Pressurized

NUMBER / SHIP TYPE


LPG sales can be subdivided into; (Clarkson, 2014)

Ethylene Carriers: 14

Pressurized Vessels: 43

Semi Refrigerated Vessels: 38

Fully Refrigerated Vessels: 52

Gas trade being profitable, owners do not sell their ships unless it is a dire necessity

making gas carrier’s second hand market highly restricted. Looking at the huge

demand for gas ships in near future, this market could remain restricted.



3.3 NEW BUILDING MARKET

It trades in new ships. The specialty of this market is, it trades in a commodity, which

does not exist and has to be built.

The motives for a new building can be various. The need may be very specific and

nothing suitable might be available in the second hand market. Another possibility is,

ships are needed for a particular scheme with specific transportation requirement.

Some companies even have internal policies of regular replacement of their vessels.

Speculation and freight rates also play important roles in this market.

The market drawback is, ships would not be available immediately and by the time

they are available the conditions might change. (Stopford, 2010)

The process is simplified below.



LPG ORDER BOOK

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

LPG < 5K 27 20 28 21 10 12 6 4 10 14 35 46 63 74 55 57 29 16

LPG 5K ‐20K 24 18 19 18 15 16 22 14 3 17 60 59 66 66 66 70 52 45

LPG 20 ‐ 40K 8 7 9 7 6 5 7 6 8 17 18 31 29 32 19 12 4 20

LPG 40 ‐ 60K 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 4 1 6 6 6 3 0 0 0 0

LPG 60K & Above 5 2 4 12 11 12 11 9 10 21 41 61 51 27 15 11 13 21

NUMBER / SHIP TYPE


Lot of vessels normally find place in the order book when investors are speculative

about the freight market or have long term time charter contract with the shipper.

Over the period 1996 – 2013 the size specific orders are as per below; (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Vessel Size (Cubic

Meter)

Maximum Number Of

Orders Placed in any

Year

Average Number of

Annual Orders

Placed

Remarks

AA. Less than 5,000 74 in 2009 29 This is the highest order

placed for any segment,

whilst over the same

period the minimum was

4 in 2003

BB. 5,000 – 20,000 70 in 2011 36 Over the same period

the minimum was 3 in

2003.

CC. 20,000 – 40,000 32 in 2009 14 Over the same period


2012

DD. 40, 000 – 60,000 7 in 2003 2

EE. 60,000 and above 61 in 2007 19 Over the same period


1997



LNG ORDER BOOK

05101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

LNG < 40K 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 5 6 11 10 6 5 2 2

LNG 60K ‐100K 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

LNG 100 ‐ 140K 17 17 21 19 19 22 41 34 21 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

LNG 140K & Above 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 19 32 94 122 131 122 76 38 18 55 84

NUMBER / SHIP TYPE


This graph clearly depicts economy of scale. Over the period 1996 – 2013;

(Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Vessel Size (Cubic

Meter)

Maximum Number Of

Orders Placed in any

Year

Average Number of

Annual Orders

Placed

Remarks

AA. Less than 40,000 11 in 2008 3 Over the same period


2003

BB. 60,000 – 100,000 3 in 2006 1

CC. 100,000 – 140,000 34 in 2003 12

DD. 140, 000 and above 131 in 2007 44 This is the highest

number of annual order

placed for any segment



LPG DELIVERIES

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

LPG < 5K 30 13 26 16 12 14 6 5 8 6 14 22 16 19 21 23 21 7

LPG 5K ‐20K 13 9 8 11 10 9 11 12 2 0 15 19 28 13 22 18 19 20

LPG 20 ‐ 40K 3 5 2 1 6 0 4 3 3 2 6 9 8 15 11 10 2 2

LPG 40 ‐ 60K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0

LPG 60K & Above 3 2 0 3 5 7 3 8 3 4 7 11 27 12 9 3 2 11

NUMBER / SHIP TYPE


The duration between order and delivery is crucial because the market may change

dramatically and vessels ordered with a hind side intention of making profit may

become a burden. This again impacts the freight rates. Over the period 1996 – 2013;

(Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Vessel Size (Cubic

Meter)

Maximum Number Of

Deliveries in any Year

Average Number of

Vessels Delivered

Annually

Remarks

AA. Less than 5,000 30 in 1996 16 This is the highest

number of deliveries for

any segment, whilst

over the same period


2003

BB. 5,000 – 20,000 28 in 2008 13 There was no delivery

in 2005

CC. 20,000 – 40,000 11 in 2010 5 There was no delivery

in 2001

DD. 40, 000 – 60,000 4 in 2003 1

EE. 60,000 and above 27 in 2008 7 There was no delivery

in 1998



LNG DELIVERIES

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

LNG < 39,999 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 5 1 1

LNG 40 ‐ 59,999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LNG 60 ‐ 99,999 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

LNG 100 ‐ 139,999 6 5 3 5 13 1 9 13 15 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 140,000 & Above 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 13 25 29 50 38 25 11 2 9

NUMBER / SHIP TYPE


The LNG deliveries show a trend, which proves economy of scale, is an advantage in

the trade. This fact was also established from the order book of LNG vessels. Over

the period 1996 – 2013; (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Vessel Size (Cubic

Meter)

Maximum Number Of

Deliveries in any Year

Average Number

of Vessels

Delivered Annually

Remarks

AA. Less than 39,999 5 in 2011 1

BB. 60,000 – 99,999 1 in 1997, 1998, 2006,

2007 and 2008

Less than 1

CC. 100,000 – 139,999 15 in 2004 4

DD. 140,000 and above 50 in 2008 12 This is the highest

figure in any segment

although the deliveries

started only in 2002



LPG NEW BUILDING PRICE

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LPG CARRIER 78K‐84K M3 (Fully Ref) 77.50 75.00 60.00 50.00 45.00 42.50 47.50 55.00 58.00 68.00 80.00 85.00 80.00 80.00 65.00 70.00 68.00 62.00 58.00 56.00 60.00 60.00 58.00 63.00 82.50 90.00 92.00 93.00 92.00 72.00 72.75 73.00 70.00

LPG CARRIER 60K M3 62.50 62.50 52.00 45.00 39.00 36.00 40.00 45.00 52.00 59.00 65.00 67.00 62.00 62.00 58.00 58.00 57.00 57.00 48.00 48.00 51.00 50.00 48.50 54.00 68.00 72.00 75.50 85.00 82.00 66.50 63.00 63.00 62.00

LPG CARRIER 22K‐24K M3 (Fully Ref) 45.00 42.50 35.00 30.00 27.00 26.00 26.00 27.00 39.00 46.00 52.00 55.00 48.00 48.00 43.00 43.00 42.00 42.00 34.00 33.00 35.00 34.00 30.75 34.00 46.00 51.00 51.00 53.50 53.00 46.00 45.00 46.50 41.00

LPG CARRIER 35K M3 (Fully Ref) 63.00 52.50 49.50 49.75 46.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100MILLION $


LNG NEW BUILDING PRICE

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LNG CARRIER 147K M3 260 258 230 222 230 220 230 190 165 173 165 150 155 185 205 220 220 215

LNG CARRIER 160K M3 222 237 245 212 202 202 200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260MILLION $


The graph establish that the price tag for a new building, under any segment is

following a sinusoidal curve - the prices rise when there is strong demand and fall

when there is abundance in supply. The pattern of the graph is symmetrical,

demonstrating a set pattern of fluctuation in price. Over the period 1980 – 2012; LNG

vessels are normally expensive than LPG vessels because of the complexity of

carriage requirement. (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl. No.

Vessel Size

(Cubic Meter)

Over the

period

Average Annual Price

(Million USD)

Highest Annual Price

(Million USD)

Year Remarks

AA. 147,000 1991 -

2008

205.14 260 1991 Over the same period the prices slowly dropped till 220 M USD in 1996 and rose to 230 M USD in 1997 and within one year slammed down to 190 M USD. The price lowered every year and in 2002 went rock bottom at 150 M USD, which was almost half the annual price as compared to 1991. The price started increasing in the following year and in 2007 the price touched 220 M USD. In 2008 the price reduced by 05 M USD

BB. 160,000 2006 -

2012

217 245 2008 Over the said period the price is slowly declining and in 2012 the annual price was 200 M USD. It means in four years the annual price fell by 45 M USD.

Sl. No. Vessel Size

(Cubic Meter)

Highest Price in

any Year

(Million USD)

Year Remarks

AA. 22,000 – 24,000 Fully Ref

55 1991

BB. 35,000 Fully Ref

63 2008 These vessels were not ordered before 2008. This indicated that there is a growing prospect for this segment.

CC. 60,000 Fully Ref

85 2007

DD. 78,000 – 84,000 Fully Ref

93 2007



Fully Refrigerated LPG Sector

Over the period 1980 – 2012, the price for a 22,000 – 24,000 cubic meters vessel

dropped by 8.9%, whereas over the same period it dropped by 9.6% for a 78,000

cubic meters vessel.

Over the period 2008 – 2012 the price for a 35,000 cubic meters vessel dropped by

25%. (Clarkson, 2014)

LNG Sector

Over the period 1991 – 2008, the price for a 147,000 cubic meters vessel dropped by

17%, whereas over the period 2006 – 2012 it dropped by 9.9% for a 160,000 cubic

meters vessel. (Clarkson, 2014)

Thus gas ships becoming cheaper implies that future demand for these ships can be

well accommodated and economy of scale could prevail.

3.4 DEMOLITION MARKET

This market also referred to as ‘Recycling Market’ deals in ships for scrapping and its

importance cannot be underestimated. It plays a vital role in maintaining the market

equilibrium. It depends on various factors such as age, technical obsolescence,

scrap price, current earnings and market expectations.

Being a business decision, it depends on owner’s future operating profitability of the

vessel and his financial position. It occurs when the industry’s reserves of cash and

optimism runs down and owners predicts that future earnings from the ship could be

less than the cost of repairing and operating it. (Stopford, 2010)



DEMOLITION

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total No. Of LPG Demolition 9 12 10 9 11 9 24 20 19 9 6 20 20 30 27 19 18 10

Total No. Of LNG Demolition 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 3 4 4

9

12

109

11

9

24

2019

9

6

20 20

30

27

1918

10

01

0 01

0 0 0 0 0 01

4

0

23

4 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30YEAR WISE COMPARISION


Over the period 1996 – 2013; (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Vessel

Type

Maximum Number

Of Vessel

Scrapped in any

Year

Total Number

of Vessels

Scrapped

Remarks

AA. LPG 30 in 2009 282 Comparing the yearly average number of

LPG and LNG vessels scrapped, it can be

seen that on an average 16 LPG vessels

were scrapped as compared to 1 LNG

vessel.

BB. LNG 04 in 2008, 2012

and 2013

20

Thus it establishes that as the return of Asset (ROA) is high, owners could be

reluctant to scrap ships.

3.5 MARKET TREND

With an insight into these markets it can be deduced that freight rates seems likely to

increase along with cargo price.

As second hand sale is highly restricted, huge demands could dictate new buildings.

Technological innovations and cheaper price could affect the economy of scale.

A comparatively young fleet having high return of asset could result in few

demolitions.



4. GAS FLEET DEVELOPMENT

FLEET DEVELOPMENT

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

LPG Fleet Development (Million DWT) 9.21 9.59 9.87 10.01 10.27 10.68 11.10 10.93 11.32 11.33 11.49 12.05 12.63 14.12 14.68 15.13 15.35 16.11

LNG Fleet Development (Million DWT) 5.23 5.68 6.06 6.33 6.7 7.69 7.76 8.53 9.67 11.22 12.65 14.87 17.5 22.2 25.89 28.16 29.01 29.53

0123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

MILLION DWT


With reference to the deadweight, it is evident that over a period 1996 – 2013 the

total deadweight for LPG carrier increased from 9.21 Million in 1996 to 16.11 million

in 2013 denoting a growth of 74.9%

Over the same period LNG carrier shows a dramatic growth from 5.23 Million in 1996

to 29.53 Million in 2013 denoting a growth of 464.6%

Comparing the difference in growth over the said period it can be established that

LPG carriers have grown by 6.9 Million whereas LNG carriers have grown by 24.3

Million. (Clarkson, 2014)

Thus growth rates indicate a huge demand for gas ships with LNG carriers growing

252.2% more than LPG carriers.



5. BUILDERS OF GAS SHIPS

With 28 gas carrier yards worldwide, only 7 are exclusive. Among them 2 are in

Japan and the rest in Brazil, China, Netherlands, Poland and South Korea.

(Clarkson, 2014)

Looking at the growing demand it is presumed that either new yards could open up or

remaining 75% yards could become exclusive, in future.



6. MERCHANTS OF GAS SHIPS

As evident, most of the big players have ordered vessels to cater to the future

demand. As of 2013 BW Gas owns maximum vessels, comprising a fleet of 44

vessels among which 37 are in service while the rest 7 are under construction.

(Clarkson, 2014)

However, these owners operate as a pool and are actually a syndicate of many

companies.

With future growth in trade, existing syndicates could grow stronger and new

syndicates could emerge.



7. DEMANDS AND SUPPLY OF GAS

LPG supplies feed stock gases to chemical industry. Three main gases namely

Propane, Ethane and Butane caters to the transportation, residential, commercial

and petrochemical sector.

LNG is the third vital energy source transported by sea. It caters to power,

transportation and residential sector. It produces hydrogen, is a feedstock for

production of ammonia. It is also used in the manufacture of fabrics, glass, steel,

plastics and paints.

Thus there is enormous demand for gas, worldwide.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013

Major LNG Trade Movement in 2012 (Billion Cubic Meters)



7.1 LPG IMPORTERS

Over the period 2000 – 2013 in addition to the OECD members there are 12 major

importers of LPG. In 2012 OECD members imported the highest quantity, touching

43.96 Million Tonnes and in 2013 the amount imported by them is 43.42 Million

Tonnes. The highlighted cells indicate maximum quantity imported by a certain

country over the said period. (Clarkson, 2014)

Over the same period Asia is second largest importer with its requirement slowly

rising over the years and is closely followed by Europe.



7.2 LPG EXPORTERS

Over the period 2000 – 2013 there are 3 major exporters of LPG with EU / Norway

being the leading exporter. In 2006 EU / Norway exported the highest quantity,

touching 13.72 Million Tonnes and in 2013 the amount exported is 11.52 Million

Tonnes.

The highlighted cells indicate maximum quantity exported by a certain country over

the said period. (Clarkson, 2014)

Over the same period export of LPG from Australia is slowly decreasing, while it is

slowly increasing from Canada.

This indicates that there is a huge demand for LPG worldwide leading to a huge

demand for gas ships in future.



7.3 LNG IMPORTERS

Over the period 2000 – 2012 there are 15 major importers of LNG, Asia being the

prime one. In 2012 Asia imported record time highest of 365.06 Million cubic meters

of LNG. The highlighted cells indicate maximum quantity imported by a certain

country over the said period. (Clarkson, 2014)

Over the same period Japan is the second largest importer with its rising

requirements, being closely followed by Europe.



7.4 LNG EXPORTERS

Over the period 2000 – 2012 there are 12 major exporters of LNG, Middle East being

prime one. In 2011 Middle East exported record time highest of 209.73 Million cubic

meters of LNG. The highlighted cells indicate maximum quantity exported by a

certain country / region over the said period. (Clarkson, 2014)

Over the same period Asia – Pacific is second largest exporter and is fascinating

This indicates the huge demand for LNG worldwide and need for LNG vessels.



7.5 MAJOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

It is estimated that 22% of world’s undiscovered conventional oil and natural gas

resources are in the Arctic region. There is enormous potential and with the opening

up of new route gas trade movement could grow in future. (RIGZONE, 2011)

Singapore LNG Corporation (SLNG) is clearly leveraging its strategic location to

become Asia’s primary gas marketing hub and is the first LNG terminal in Asia for

importing and re-exporting LNG from multiple suppliers.

Shell is planning to build the world’s first floating LNG platform. The 600,000 (T)

behemoth – the world’s biggest ship will be sited off the coast of Australia.

(Summers, 2011)

Recently Cyprus and Total have signed a MOU to build a LNG plant. Similarly a new

LNG import terminal is approved in Fujairah. Whereas Chevron signed 10 Billion

USD Shale Gas Agreement with Ukraine. Argentina National Gas Company selected

BP to supply 80% of its LNG needs. China has set 5 years plans for Shale gas

segment. (Enerdata Daily Review of Energy, 2014)

The Finish Government is supporting in the investment in LNG terminals and US

Department of Energy has approved applications to export LNG to signatories of

Free Trade Agreement. GLNG and APLNG agreed on building joint LNG

infrastructures in Australia. (Enerdata Daily Review of Energy, 2014)



7.6 GAS WORLD TRADE

EUROPE’S SEABORNE LPG TRADE

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Europe's LPG Import (Million Tonnes) 15.01 14.18 13.57 14.14 15.82 17.01 16.96 16.81 18.01 16.91 16.32 17.80 17.80 20.84

EU / Norway LPG Export (Million Tonnes) 6.79 6.71 7.74 12.46 12.40 13.65 13.72 11.98 12.04 11.57 10.81 11.02 12.40 11.52

IMPORT & EXPORT


Over the period 2000 – 2013 European market shows increasing demand for LPG.

(Clarkson, 2014)

Sl. No. Increase In Import

(Million Tonnes)

Highest Export in any

Year

(Million Tonnes)

Remarks

AA. 5.83 13.72 in 2006 Export is slowly reducing as evident and

home production is not matching the vast

consumption.



EUROPE’S SEABORNE LNG TRADE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LNG Import (Million Cubic Meter) 54.97 55.20 65.92 66.31 65.15 78.71 95.32 87.94 93.27 114.30 142.40 145.51 107.99

LNG Export (Million Cubic Meter) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.38 0.23 0.28 4.19 16.66 29.74 31.58 31.49

IMPORT & EXPORT


Over the period 2000 – 2012 there had been an increasing demand for LNG in

European market. (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Highest Import

in any Year

(Million Tonnes)

Total Quantity

Imported

(Million Tonnes)

Highest Export in

any Year

(Million Tonnes)

Total Quantity

Exported

(Million Tonnes)

Remarks

AA. 145.51 in 2011 1172.99 31.58 in 2011 115.50 Although import is

reducing, Europe still

depends heavily on it

to cater its

consumption. It started

exporting from 2004.



CHINA’S SEABORNE LIQUID GAS TRADE

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Liquid Gas Import (Million Tonnes) 5.54 4.81 4.88 6.25 6.38 6.40 6.15 6.05 6.97 5.94 9.69 12.63 15.71 18.20 14.12

Liquid Gas Export (Million Tonnes) 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.13 0.33 0.66 0.82 0.89 1.16 1.26 0.82

IMPORT & EXPORT


Over the period 1999 – 2013, there had been a steady rise in demand for gas in

Chinese market. From 2009 – 2012 quantity of gas imported increased steadily,

whereby it imported 18.20 Million Tonnes of liquefied gas in 2012.

Howsoever in 2013 there is a drop in import to 14.12 Million Tonnes (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Highest Import

in any Year

(Million Tonnes)

Total Quantity

Imported

(Million Tonnes)

Highest Export

in any Year

(Million Tonnes)

Total Quantity

Exported

(Million Tonnes)

Remarks

AA. 18.20 in 2012 129.72

(Yearly Average:

8.65)

1.26 in 2012 6.24

(Yearly

Average: 0.42)

China is importing 21

times more

compared to its

export.



USA LNG TRADE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LNG Import (Million Cubic Meter) 10.71 11.13 10.55 23.01 29.55 29.12 26.13 35.72 16.06 20.96 19.95 15.96 8.04

LNG Export (Million Cubic Meter) 2.98 3.00 2.90 2.81 2.92 2.97 2.77 2.12 1.73 1.32 2.45 3.09 0.41

IMPORT & EXPORT


Over the period 2000 – 2012, US LNG import had been versatile and since 2009

quantity of LNG imported is slowly decreasing and amount of LNG imported in 2012

is 8.04 Million Cubic Meters (Clarkson, 2014)

Sl.

No.

Highest Import

in any Year

(Million Cubic

Meters)

Total Quantity

Imported

(Million Cubic

Meters)

Highest Export

in any Year

(Million Cubic

Meters)

Total Quantity

Exported

(Million Cubic

Meters)

Remarks

AA. 35.72 in 2007 256.89

(Yearly Average:

19.76)

3.09 in 2011 31.47

(Yearly

Average: 2.42)

Thus US is slowly

becoming self-

sufficient and over

the years could

become a leading

exporter.



7.7 NATURAL GAS – PRODUCTION FORECAST

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION AT A GLANCE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

North America 584.0 651.7 694.0 678.5 743.4 784.0 803.6 893.6 955.0 983.3

South & Central America 52.3 68.0 90.2 124.8 146.5 150.9 172.0 188.7 208.8 232.9

Europe & Eurasia 865.1 789.2 843.0 926.1 924.2 932.7 994.4 1001.5 1054.4 1110.0

Middle East 91.2 134.6 187.3 287.9 425.1 473.5 575.0 631.8 717.2 794.1

Africa 61.9 76.7 117.3 156.9 192.2 182.4 213.5 222.2 277.7 350.7

Asia Pacific 135.8 190.4 244.9 326.8 435.2 431.2 512.2 655.8 738.8 809.8

MILLION TONNES OIL EQUIVALENT

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030

Year North America 5 Yearly Growth South & Central America 5 Yearly Growth Europe & Eurasia 5 Yearly Growth Middle East 5 Yearly Growth Africa 5 Yearly Growth Asia Pacific 5 Yearly Growth

1990 584.0 52.3 865.1 91.2 61.9 135.8

1995 651.7 67.7 68.0 15.7 789.2 ‐75.9 134.6 43.4 76.7 14.8 190.4 54.6

2000 694.0 42.3 90.2 22.2 843.0 53.8 187.3 52.7 117.3 40.6 244.9 54.5

2005 678.5 ‐15.5 124.8 34.6 926.1 83.1 287.9 100.6 156.9 39.6 326.8 81.9

2010 743.4 64.9 146.5 21.7 924.2 ‐1.9 425.1 137.2 192.2 35.3 435.2 108.4

2011 784.0 40.6 150.9 4.4 932.7 8.5 473.5 48.4 182.4 ‐9.8 431.2 ‐4

2015 803.6 19.6 172.0 21.1 994.4 61.7 575.0 101.5 213.5 31.1 512.2 81

2020 893.6 90.0 188.7 16.7 1001.5 7.1 631.8 56.8 222.2 8.7 655.8 143.6

2025 955.0 61.4 208.8 20.1 1054.4 52.9 717.2 85.4 277.7 55.5 738.8 83

2030 983.3 28.3 232.9 24.1 1110.0 55.6 794.1 76.9 350.7 73.0 809.8 71


Table shows future estimate of natural gas production till 2030 in terms of million

Tonnes of oil equivalents. The producers, taken into account are as stated below:

North America

South and Central America

Europe and Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

It is evident that Europe and Eurasia could lead in terms of LNG Production. Five

yearly growth rate of production could be 44.3 Million Tonnes (Oil Equivalent) from

2015 to 2030.

Over the same period, comparing only rate of production it is found that Asia Pacific

could lead with a five yearly average growth rate of 94.65 Million Tonnes (Oil

Equivalent). (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)



7.8 NATURAL GAS – CONSUMPTION FORECAST

NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION AT A GLANCE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

North America 579.3 673.8 720.8 707.0 757.9 782.4 815.6 862.4 885.3 906.8

South & Central America 52.0 67.6 86.4 110.6 135.2 139.1 161.2 183.5 214.1 241.7

Europe & Eurasia 876.3 823.4 884.3 995.3 1012.2 991.0 1068.2 1103.9 1131.1 1165.3

Middle East 86.1 128.1 168.1 251.3 339.5 362.8 456.3 510.4 585.7 670.0

Africa 35.7 42.7 52.6 74.7 96.2 98.8 115.3 123.1 143.8 167.9

Asia Pacific 139.1 191.4 261.7 358.6 502.1 531.5 684.4 850.0 977.5 1099.9



Year North America 5 Yearly Growth South & Central America 5 Yearly Growth Europe & Eurasia 5 Yearly Growth Middle East 5 Yearly Growth Africa 5 Yearly Growth Asia Pacific 5 Yearly Growth

1990 579.3 52.0 876.3 86.1 35.7 139.1

1995 673.8 94.5 67.6 15.6 823.4 ‐52.9 128.1 42.0 42.7 7.0 191.4 52.3

2000 720.8 47.0 86.4 18.8 884.3 60.9 168.1 40.0 52.6 9.9 261.7 70.3

2005 707.0 ‐13.8 110.6 24.2 995.3 111.0 251.3 83.2 74.7 22.1 358.6 96.9

2010 757.9 50.9 135.2 24.6 1012.2 16.9 339.5 88.2 96.2 21.5 502.1 143.5

2011 782.4 24.5 139.1 3.9 991.0 ‐21.2 362.8 23.3 98.8 2.6 531.5 29.4

2015 815.6 33.2 161.2 22.1 1068.2 77.2 456.3 93.5 115.3 16.5 684.4 152.9

2020 862.4 46.8 183.5 22.3 1103.9 35.7 510.4 54.1 123.1 7.8 850.0 165.6

2025 885.3 22.9 214.1 30.6 1131.1 27.2 585.7 75.3 143.8 20.7 977.5 127.5

2030 906.8 21.5 241.7 27.6 1165.3 34.2 670.0 84.3 167.9 24.1 1099.9 122.4


Table shows future estimate of natural gas consumption till 2030 in terms of

million Tonnes of oil equivalents. The consumers, taken into account are as stated

below:

North America

South and Central America

Europe and Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

It can be seen that Europe and Eurasia could lead in terms of LNG Consumption.

Five yearly growth rate of consumption could be 43.6 Million Tonnes (Oil

Equivalent) from 2015 to 2030.

Over the same period, comparing only rate of consumption it is found that Asia

Pacific could lead with an average five yearly growth rate of 142.1 Million Tonnes (Oil

Equivalent). (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)



7.9 GAS – SECTOR CONSUMPTION FORECAST

GAS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

Transport 1.7 3.2 4.3 12.1 32.9 36.7 54.5 69.6 95.1 135.6

Power 471.3 522.5 654.6 846.7 1039.1 1064.4 1201.6 1343.9 1480.1 1590.7

Industry 811.1 867.7 932.3 1001.6 1110.9 1155.9 1327.5 1464.3 1564.0 1663.7

Others 484.5 534.8 583.7 638.5 662.4 652.7 727.7 766.4 810.2 873.4



Year Transport 5 Yearly Growth Power 5 Yearly Growth2 Industry 5 Yearly Growth3 Others 5 Yearly Growth

1990 1.7 471.3 811.1 484.5

1995 3.2 1.5 522.5 51.2 867.7 56.6 534.8 383.2

2000 4.3 1.1 654.6 132.1 932.3 64.6 583.7 397.5

2005 12.1 7.8 846.7 192.1 1001.6 69.3 638.5 417.9

2010 32.9 20.8 1039.1 192.4 1110.9 109.3 662.4 472.4

2011 36.7 3.8 1064.4 25.3 1155.9 45.0 652.7 493.5

2015 54.5 17.8 1201.6 137.2 1327.5 171.6 727.7 674.8

2020 69.6 15.1 1343.9 142.3 1464.3 136.8 766.4 736.6

2025 95.1 25.5 1480.1 136.2 1564.0 99.7 810.2 797.6

2030 135.6 40.5 1590.7 110.6 1663.7 99.7 873.4 853.5


Previous table shows future estimate of gas consumption in various sectors till 2030

in terms of million Tonnes of oil equivalents. The following are taken into account:

Transport

Power

Industry

Others

As evident over the period 1990 – 2030 consumption of gas could grow steadily

across all the sectors. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

A close look at individual sectors shows the following;



As seen, transportation industry could have an increase in energy demand by more

than 300% from 2010 to 2030

Future prospects over the same period show that Industry could lead in terms of LNG

Consumption. Five yearly growth rate of consumption could be 131.6 Million Tonnes

(Oil Equivalent) from 2015 to 2030.

Comparing five yearly rate of consumption it is established that other sectors leads

with an average five yearly growth rate of 765.6 Million Tonnes (Oil Equivalent). (BP

Energy Outlook, 2030)

8. NEED FOR GAS

8.1 WORLD

Natural gas could be the fastest growing clean fuel, could be used 14% more by

2030 and Europe could remain world’s largest importer. Non-OECD countries could

account for 76% of the rise in gas demand and 74% of output growth. LNG supply

could grow twice as fast as total output and Australia could overtake Qatar as the top

LNG supplier. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

8.2 BRAZIL

Gas production could increase by 146% and consumption by 137% and could

replace coal and hydro energy in power generation. Net natural gas imports could

double despite strong output growth. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

8.3 CHINA

Gas production could increase by 182% and it could becomes second largest gas

consumer by 2027. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

8.4 EUROPE

Gas demand could rise by 26% and could curtail CO2 emission by more than 12%

and by 2030 Europe could become largest net importer of natural gas whereby gas

production could drop by 21% and gas import could rise by 74%. (BP Energy Outlook,

2030)



8.5 INDIA

India could become increasingly import dependent despite increased production. Gas

production could increase by 16% and consumption by 110% and gas demand could

rise by 101%. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

8.6 MIDDLE EAST

Gas production could increase by 68% and gas could grow from 27% to 34% in

2030. It could remain as a large exporter and could grow by 10% with gas gaining

8%. Gas consumption could rise from 49% to 55% in 2030. Gas export could account

for 15% in 2030. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

8.7 RUSSIA

It could remain largest net exporter of natural gas, providing 6% of global demand by

2030. Gas demand could rise by 8% and could account for 30% of energy demand

growth. Gas could remain the leading fuel but falls from 56% today to 52% in 2030.

(BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

8.8 AMERICA

99% of energy demand could be supplied by domestic sources by 2030. Gas

production could rise by 32% and consumption could grow by 14%. US could be self-

sufficient in natural gas and could be the largest producer of natural gas in the world.

Natural gas consumption could increase from 25% to 31% and could be the leading

fuel in energy consumption by 2026. (BP Energy Outlook, 2030)

9. UNCONVENTIONAL SOURCES – FUTURE SUPPLIERS

9.1 SOUR GAS

In some areas, natural gas occurs mixed with higher levels of Sulphur, creating

hydrogen sulfide (H2S), a corrosive gas. This is “sour gas” and it requires additional

processing to purify it.

9.2 TIGHT GAS

Tight gas refers to natural gas reservoirs locked in extraordinarily impermeable, hard

rock, making the underground formation extremely "tight." It can also be trapped in

sandstone or limestone formations that are a typically impermeable or nonporous.



9.3 SHALE GAS

Shale gas describes a field in which natural gas accumulation is locked in tiny

bubble-like pockets within layered sedimentary rock such as shale.

For decades geologists knew that shale gas existed deep beneath many areas of

North American continent, recently, operational efficiencies and proven technology

have come together to make shale gas both accessible and economically

competitive.

Dramatic rise in shale gas extraction and tight gas revolution became possible

because of open access, sound policies, stable property rights and good

engineering.

The speed at which this enormous resource can be brought in the market depends

on practicability of cost involved in initial infrastructure.

The gradual rise of shale gas is the single major event in the Energy world having an

ever lasting impression. Shale gas could add more than 40% of world’s gas volume

in near future.

In terms of technically recoverable shale gas resources, China rules the world.

Presently from various researches conducted worldwide, the top fifteen players in

shale gas reserves are tabulated below.



So it seems very likely that shale gas could play an increasingly important role in

years to come and could influence the market. (World Shale Gas Reserve)

10. CONCLUSION

With growing world economy, volume of trade is increasing, resulting in opening up

of new terminals, sea routes and sources of gas.

Increase in demand is resulting in price rise whereby propane and butane price is

increasing by 180.6% and 54.9% respectively since 2002. Marine transportation

being the most economical solution, gas fleet seems likely to be in huge demand with

LNG growing 252.2% more than LPG, in the present scenario.

Although the age profile of world gas fleet is relatively young, still it is insufficient to

handle the enormous rise in future demands. As second hand sale is highly

restricted, this huge demand could dictate new buildings and economy of scale could

prevail.

Due to profitability in gas trade (Annual growth rate of freight being 11.69%) and the

price of ships becoming cheaper (Price of a 35,000 m3 fully refrigerated vessel

dropped by 25%) owners seems likely to be reluctant in scrapping ships due to high

return of assets and could be interested in investing in gas ships thus making the

existing syndicate stronger.

Thus it seems very likely that unconventional sources could play a vital role (Shale

gas could add more than 40% of world’s gas volume) and influence future shipping

market.



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market analysis of liquefied gas industry upto 2030

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