markedskraft - buying-in flexibility for intraday trading from the neighbours - felix buchholz
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the 17th German Norwegian Energy Forum in Berlin 2013TRANSCRIPT
Buying-in Flexibility for Intraday Trading from the
Neighbours
Why do we need Intraday Flexibility in Germany?
Intraday Trading with(out) Borders: Status quo, Restrictions – and the Future.
Felix Buchholz
Agenda
2
Renewables – The main driver for intraday trading in Germany
Neighbours – Supplying flexibility for (cross-border) intraday trading
Agenda
3
Renewables – The main driver for intraday trading in Germany
Neighbours – Supplying flexibility for (cross-border) intraday trading
Current status of the most important renewable technologies in
Germany – wind and photovoltaic.
Prod = production; Capa = capacity; NREAP = National Renewable Energy Action Plan; data from EUROSTAT and NREAPs
4
- Joint installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic in 2012: ~ 64 GW
- Planned NREAP joint installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic in 2020: ~ 98 GW
- Peak demand in Germany: ~ 85 GW
Challenges arising from high shares of fluctuating renewables:
DA production volatility & ID prognosis corrections.
DA = day-ahead; ID = intraday; left picture – http://www.agora-energiewende.de/; right picture – inspired by Dr. Kurz (meteocontrol GmbH)
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DA production volatility ID prognosis corrections
Basis for capacity markets debate The rationale for intraday power markets
Prognosis horizon
Re
lative
e
rror
… 4h 3h 2h 1h 0h
DA forecast
cloud
tracking
persistence
Market design specific reasons for ID trading:
“The Sunrise Quarters”.
DA = day-ahead; ID = intraday; PV = photovoltaic
6
1 Hour
Day-Ahead
or Intraday
PV Production Curve
Time Resolution:
- DA auction: 1h
(Market coupling
standard)
- ID market: 15min
(Balancing power
system)
Short - Buy:
0-15min
15-30min
Long - Sell:
30-45min
45-60min
4 x 15min
Who is trading the ID prognosis corrections and
“The Sunrise Quarters“?
TSO = transmission system operator; BNetzA = Bundesnetzagentur (German regulatory authority)
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ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters”
German TSOsDirect marketing
companiesGerman TSOs
Direct marketing
companies
~ 20 % ~ 80 %
~ 90 % ~ 10 % ~ 90 % ~ 10 %
Motivations and incentives to participate in the ID market.
TSO = transmission system operator; BNetzA = Bundesnetzagentur (German regulatory authority)
8
Direct marketing companies … German TSOs …
1) … are obliged by the balancing group
contract to keep their renewable
portfolio balanced. 24/7 and with 15min
resolution – as emphasized by the
BNetzA in a very recent position paper
2) … reduce their imbalance costs by
trading intraday – intraday balancing
costs < imbalance costs
1) … are forced by law to balance out their
renewable production portfolio in the
intraday market segment of the EPEX
SPOT
2) … are intrinsically motivated to trade
prognosis corrections – their primary
objective is grid stability
Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT –
# trades, volumes, prices and timing. (1/5)
ID = intraday; PV = photovoltaic; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013, outliers excluded)
9
ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters”
# transaction boxplot of hours
PV + Wind = more pot. prognosis errors
# transaction boxplot of quarters
The PV gradient causes this pattern
Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT –
# trades, volumes, prices and timing. (2/5)
ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013 , outliers excluded)
10
ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters”
Traded volume boxplot of hours
Typical hourly volumes = 0,5 – 4 GWh
Traded volume boxplot of quarters
Typical hourly volumes = 0,25 – 1 GWh
Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT –
# trades, volumes, prices and timing. (3/5)
DA = day-ahead; ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013 , outliers excluded)
11
ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters”
Price boxplot of hours
Similar to DA pattern but higher volatility
Price boxplot of quarters
A closer look is needed – see next page
Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT –
# trades, volumes, prices and timing. (4/5)
ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013)
12
“The Sunrise Quarters” – a closer look
Volume weighted average prices for quarters
“The Sunrise Quarters” causing a systematic daily price pattern
Views on the ID market segment of the EPEX SPOT –
# trades, volumes, prices and timing. (5/5)
ID = intraday; GC = gate closure; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013)
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ID prognosis corrections “The Sunrise Quarters”
Median of hourly products
Main trading activity close to GC
Median of quarterly products
Nearly same level in hours of sunshine
Agenda
14
Renewables – The main driver for intraday trading in Germany
Neighbours – Supplying flexibility for (cross-border) intraday trading
Fluctuating renewables require intraday flexibility.
Who can match the demand?
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Flexibility in production Flexibility in consumptionImbalances
Implicit cross-border trading is a relatively young element of
the EPEX SPOT ID market segment.
EPEX SPOT area; ID = intraday
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1
2
3
Since 2012
3
Since 2013
2
Since 2010
1ID prognosis
corrections
“The Sunrise
Quarters”
ID prognosis
corrections
“The Sunrise
Quarters”
ID prognosis
corrections
“The Sunrise
Quarters”
Around 25% of all traded German hourly volumes in
September 2013 were cross-border trades.
EPEX SPOT area; ID = intraday; data from EPEX SPOT (single trades for Germany including cross-border transactions from 1.1.2013 – 30.9.2013)
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1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Jun Jul Aug Sep
Sh
are
[%
]Share of German ID trading – quarters
DE<CH
DE>CH
0
5
10
Sh
are
[%
]
Share of German ID trading – hours
DE<FR
DE<AT
DE<CH
DE>FR
DE>AT
DE>CH
Potentials of direct ID cross-border trading between Germany
and the Nordic countries.
EPEX SPOT area; Nordpool Spot area; ID = intraday
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Baltic cable
~ 600 MW
3
DK2 – KONTEK cable
~ 550 MW
2
DK1 cable
DE>DK1: ~ 950 MW
DE<DK1: ~ 1500 MW
1ID prognosis
corrections
“The Sunrise
Quarters”
ID prognosis
corrections
“The Sunrise
Quarters”
ID prognosis
corrections
“The Sunrise
Quarters”
1 2
3
There is room for improvements to push ID cross-border
trading between Germany and the Nordic countries.
EPEX SPOT area; Nordpool Spot area; ID = intraday
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What about implicit cross-border trading via a
common trading platform of Nordpool Spot and
EPEX SPOT?
Do we need additional cable capacity for
ID cross-border trading with the Nordic countries?
What about an adaption of the imbalance intervals
in the Nordic countries and Germany?
Thanks for your attention!
If you have any questions – feel free to contact us.
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Markedskraft Deutschland GmbH
Kurfürstendamm 72
D-10709 Berlin
www.markedskraft.de
www.mkonline.com
Felix Buchholz
Portfolio Management CWE
Phone: +49 (0)30 315 17 19 21
Mobile: +49 (0)176 63 00 49 10