mark woodworth senior managing director a cbre company research trends
TRANSCRIPT
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Mark WoodworthSenior Managing Director
A CBRE COMPANY
RESEARCH TRENDS
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HOTEL SECTOR UPDATE – SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
Mark WoodworthSenior Managing Director
PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company
The Very Good ……Will Continue
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WHAT COULD DERAIL THE GOOD TIMES?
Is the economy:• Good?• Okay?• Bad?
What about a year from today?
Question:
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WHAT COULD DERAIL THE GOOD TIMES?
4. Oil/Energy Price Increases
5. Over Building
1. The Economy
2. Asset Price Bubble
3. Unpredictable Demand Shock
Okay, moving to better
???
Not on the horizon
Mostly no, some yes.
?
Lessons from History:
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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%Leading Economic Indicators (% change in the last 6 months) U.S. Hotel Demand
August 2015
Looks good for at least another six
months!
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7
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2.7%
2.0%
-1.9%
-8.2%
-5.4%
-0.5%
1.3%
3.9%
1.7%
3.9%
2.7%2.5%
-1.5%
2.9%
0.8%
4.6%
2.7%
1.9%
0.5%0.1%
1.9%
1.1%
3.0%
3.8%
-0.9%
4.6%4.3%
2.1%0.6% 3.7%
2.6%3.8%3.7%3.4%3.4%3.0%
Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product
(GOVERNMENT) Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
TRADE (Net exports of goods and services)
BUSINESS (Gross private domestic investment)
Lodging Demand
GDP Component Forecast
These matter the most.
THE OUTLOOK FOR HOTEL INDUSTRY DRIVERS THAT ARE MOST IMPORTANT REMAINS FAVORABLE
Source: BEA; Moody’s Analytics; PKF-HR, a CBRE Company; STR, Inc.
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#2014IAC
THE VERY GOOD….9/12/2014
WILL GET EVEN BETTER
U.S. Lodging Industry Update
R. Mark [email protected]
A Year Ago
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2014F 2015F 2016F 2014F 2015F 2016F
Supply 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.7%
Demand 4.5% 2.2% 1.6% 4.5% 2.2% 1.6%
Occupancy 64.4% 65.0% 64.9% 64.4% 65.0% 64.9%
ADR 4.5% 5.7% 5.9% 4.5% 5.7% 5.9%
RevPAR 8.2% 6.7% 5.8% 8.2% 6.7% 5.8%
#2014IAC
U.S. NATIONAL FORECAST 2014-2016
Source: PKF Hospitality Research – Hotel Horizons® September –November 2014, STR, Inc.
What We Said at The Del
Record
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TITLE TEXT
2014F 2015F 2016F
Supply 0.9% 1.3% 1.7%
Demand 4.5% 2.2% 1.6%
Occupancy 64.4% 65.0% 64.9%
ADR 4.5% 5.7% 5.9%
RevPAR 8.2% 6.7% 5.8%
• 2014-2016National Forecast – All U.S. Hotels
Source: PKF Hospitality Research - Hotel Horizons® September-November, 2014,2015, STR, Inc.
Forecast TodayWhat We Said at The Del
Record
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2014F 2015F 2016F 2014 2015F 2016F
Supply 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8%
Demand 4.5% 2.2% 1.6% 4.4% 3.3% 2.2%
Occupancy 64.4% 65.0% 64.9% 64.4% 65.8% 66.1%ADR 4.5% 5.7% 5.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.9%
RevPAR 8.2% 6.7% 5.8% 8.2% 7.2% 6.3%
• 2014-2016National Forecast – All U.S. Hotels
Source: PKF Hospitality Research - Hotel Horizons® September-November, 2014,2015, STR, Inc.
Forecast TodayWhat We Said at The Del
Record
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HAPPY THOUGHTS
Lodging Industry is at a Record Occupancy Level• 15 Cities are at a Record Occupancy
• Many by a Substantial Amount:
Current Occupancy
Pre-Recession
Peak PremiumDenver 76.1% 65.6% 10.5%San Jose 77.7% 68.5% 9.2%San Francisco 84.7% 76.1% 8.6%Boston 76.2% 68.5% 7.7%Nashville 72.8% 66.4% 6.4%Miami 78.1% 72.5% 5.6%Seattle 76.6% 71.6% 5.0%Austin 73.7% 69.3% 4.4%
Source: STR, Inc.
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MORE HAPPY THOUGHTS
Some Markets are Experiencing SignificantNew Hotel Construction (NYC, Austin, Houston).
• Most, however, are in balance.
Limited New Supply, Along with ContinuedDemand Growth, will Lead to Even GreaterRoom Rate Increases in 2016 and 2017.
• Pricing Power will Remain with Hotels.
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MORE HAPPY THOUGHTS
Many Markets will Realize Big Price Increases for the Next Two Years.
Rank Market2015-2016
2016-2017
1 Oakland 11.3% 9.7%2 San Jose-Santa Cruz 9.0% 6.3%3 Atlanta 8.4% 6.3%4 Nashville 8.1% 6.4%5 Seattle 8.0% 6.4%6 Jacksonville 7.8% 5.5%7 San Francisco 7.2% 6.1%8 Boston 7.1% 4.5%9 Portland 7.0% 5.3%10 Denver 6.9% 5.1%
Forecast Change in Average Daily RateAll Upper-Price Hotels
Source: PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company
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MORE HAPPY THOUGHTS
Luxury Hotels Set an All-Time High Occupancy Record of 75.0% in 2014.• 2015 and 2016 will be even better!
Room Rates Increases will Exceed the Long Run Average of 4.6% this Year and Next as a Result.
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MORE HAPPY THOUGHTS
Luxury Resorts are Forecast to Set anall-time High Occupancy of 71.3% this Year.• 2016 and 2017 will be even better as new construction lags demand growth.
Room Rate Increases will be well-above theLong Run Average of 2.9% this Year and Next as a Result.
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Long Run Average 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Supply 1.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8%
Demand 2.0% 2.8% 2.0% 4.4% 3.3% 2.2%
Occupancy 62.0% 61.4% 62.2% 64.4% 65.8% 66.1%ADR 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.9%
RevPAR 3.2% 6.6% 5.2% 8.2% 7.2% 6.3%
• 2014-2016National Forecast – All U.S. Hotels
Source: PKF Hospitality Research - Hotel Horizons® September-November, 2015, STR, Inc.
RevPAR driven by ADR Growth
Record
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Long Run Average 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Supply 4.4% -0.3% -0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 1.5%
Demand 4.9% 2.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.2% 1.7%
Occupancy 70.0% 73.0% 74.3% 75.0% 75.5% 75.7%ADR 3.9% 4.5% 5.4% 5.3% 5.6% 6.7%
RevPAR 4.6% 7.8% 7.3% 6.2% 6.4% 7.0%
• 2014-2016National Forecast – All Luxury Hotels
Source: PKF Hospitality Research - Hotel Horizons® September-November, 2015, STR, Inc.Record
Limited Supply Growth in the Near Term
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Long Run Average 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Supply 2.2% -0.2% -0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4%
Demand 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% 4.9% 3.0% 2.4%
Occupancy 66.6% 66.3% 67.3% 69.9% 71.3% 71.9%ADR 3.0% 4.8% 4.9% 3.2% 4.6% 6.8%
RevPAR 3.3% 6.6% 6.4% 7.2% 6.6% 7.8%
• 2014-2016National Forecast – All U.S. Resorts
Source: PKF Hospitality Research - Hotel Horizons® Custom Forecast September, 2015, STR, Inc.Record
Large RevPAR Increases will be Sustained
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A NEW DISRUPTOR?
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AIRBNB AND OTHER SHORT-TERM RENTALS
Google Trends – Search Data
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 Airbnb VRBO
Source: Google Trends; PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company
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AIRBNB – U.S.
Source: Insideairbnb.com (July 2015); PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company
Roughly 215,000 Units available in the U.S. (July 2015)
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HOW MANY ARE COMPETITIVE WITH HOTELS?
We Estimate 68% of Airbnb Units Are Competitive with U.S. Hotels
65%
35%
Entire home/apt Private room95,169 Units = 182,495 Rooms
1.9 Rooms per Unit50,651Units
233,146 Competitive Rooms in the U.S.
New
York
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iale
ah
, FL
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Die
go,
CA
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ing
ton
, D
...
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, M
A
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orn
ia N
ort
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icag
o,
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le,
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orn
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to,
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lan
d,
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Top 20 Markets
Source: Insideairbnb.com (July 2015); PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company
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INDUCED SUPPLY?
Source: Insideairbnb.com (July 2015); PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company, STR, Inc.
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INCREASING THREAT FROM AIRBNB
Competitive Airbnb Rooms as a Percent of Hotel RoomsA
ust
in, TX
Long Isl
and
Oakla
nd, C
A
Sacr
am
ento
, C
A
Mia
mi/H
iale
ah, FL
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on, M
A
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Orl
eans,
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and, H
I
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hia
, P...
Charl
est
on, SC
Denver,
CO
West
Palm
Beac.
..
Salt
Lake C
ity/...
Anaheim
/Santa
...
Louis
ville
, K
Y-I
N
Orl
ando, FL
Balt
imore
, M
D
Tam
pa/S
t Pete
rs...
Pit
tsburg
h, PA
Alb
uquerq
ue, N
M
New
ark
, N
J
Cin
cinnati
, O
H-.
..
India
napolis,
IN
Houst
on, TX
Charl
ott
e, N
C-S
C
Colu
mbus,
OH
Dallas,
TX
Detr
oit
, M
I
Kansa
s C
ity, M
...
Dayto
n/S
pri
ngfi...0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
19 Markets above 5%
Source: Insideairbnb.com (July 2015); PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company, STR, Inc.
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DESTINATION RESORTS AND AIRBNB
Not Just Major Cities
Source: Insideairbnb.com (July 2015); PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company, STR, Inc.
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WHERE IS THE MOST AIRBNB SUPPLY OCCURING?
Source: PKF-HR, a CBRE Company; STR, Inc.; insideairbnb.com
Miami Beach
, FL
San Francisco
Marke
t St, C
A
Palm Sprin
gs, CA
Colorado Ski Area
Miami CBD/N
orth, F
L
Hawaii (Big Is
land), HI
Oahu Area, HI
South Lake Tahoe, C
A
San Diego C
BD, CA
Maui Area, H
I
Kissim
mee West,
FL
San Diego Sea W
orld/Airp
ort, CA
Cape Cod/M
assach
usetts
SE, MA
Newport Beach
/Dana Point, C
A
Santa Barbara/Santa Maria
, CA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000RESORT SUBMARKETS WITH THE MOST AIRBNB SUPPLY
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Source: PKF-HR, a CBRE Company; STR, Inc.; insideairbnb.com
Miami Beach
, FL
San Francisco
Marke
t St, C
A
Palm Sprin
gs, CA
Colorado Ski Area
Miami CBD/N
orth, F
L
Hawaii (Big Is
land), HI
Oahu Area, HI
South Lake Tahoe, C
A
San Diego C
BD, CA
Maui Area, H
I
Kissim
mee West,
FL
San Diego Sea W
orld/Airp
ort, CA
Cape Cod/M
assach
usetts
SE, MA
Newport Beach
/Dana Point, C
A
Santa Barbara/Santa Maria
, CA
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400AVERAGE AIRBNB PRICES
WHAT RATES ARE AIRBNB PROPERTIES CHARGING?
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WHERE IS THE MOST AIRBNB SUPPLY OCCURING?
Hotels & Airbnb
Source: Insideairbnb.com (July 2015); PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company, STR, Inc.
A Look at Miami Beach
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1. The fundamentals are solid across the vast majority of markets.
2. Elevated industry growth will persist comfortably through 2017 and likely beyond.
3. High occupancy levels will provide the leverage needed to achieve large real ADR increases for the next two-three years, particularly at Resorts and Luxury Hotels.
Summary Thoughts: The Very Good……………Will Continue
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1. Competition for building materials and labor will continue to present challenges for developers in most markets. Below average hotel construction will be the result for the next three years.
2. Above long run average occupancy levels will lead to strong profit growth comfortably through 2017, enough to off-set increasing labor costs.
3. It is a great time to be in the hotel business!
Summary Thoughts: The Very Good……………Will Continue
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Thanks for Your Time