mark new ana lopez, fai fung, milena cuellar funded by tyndall and environment agency

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From Climate Data to Adaptation Large-ensemble GCM Information and an Operational Policy-Support Model Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

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From Climate Data to Adaptation Large-ensemble GCM Information and an Operational Policy-Support Model. Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency. Adaptation Challenges. Uncertainty in climate information Interactions with other uncertain changes - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

From Climate Data to Adaptation Large-ensemble GCM Information and an

Operational Policy-Support Model

Mark NewAna Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena CuellarFunded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Page 2: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Adaptation Challenges

1. Uncertainty in climate information

2. Interactions with other uncertain changes

3. Integrated assessment

Page 3: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Wimbleball Water Resource Zone

Page 4: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Route Map

• Large ensemble climate data

• River flow ensemble

• Water resource system modelling

Page 5: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Large GCM Ensemble: CPdN• Explore model uncertainty by varying settings of poorly

constrained model parameters• HADCM3L model: standard atmosphere & low resolution

ocean.• 26 perturbed parameters (radiation, large scale cloud

formation, ocean circulation, sulphate cycle, sea ice formation and energy convection)

• Initial condition ensembles.• Transient runs:

– 1920-2000 forced with historical CO2, solar and volcanic forcing.– 2000-2080 forced with different possible scenarios

Page 6: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

First 246 Completed Simulations

IPCC 4AR models

CPDN model runs

Global Mean Temperature: SRES A2

An

om

aly

fro

m 1

96

1-1

99

0

Page 7: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Data Available• 10-year seasonal mean fields• Monthly mean (time series):

– Large regions (Giorgi)– Selected grid-boxes (including UK)

• Variables include– Total precipitation rate– Convective cloud amount– Surface air temperature (1.5m)– Relative humidity (1.5m)

Page 8: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Modelling Set-up

• Downscale climate in space and time– SW England -> River Exe– Monthly -> Daily

• Generate ensemble of daily river flows– CATCHMOD rainfall-runoff model

• Run flow-ensemble through water resource model

Page 9: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Downscaling: Precipitation

• Gamma transform method– Remove GCM monthly biases– Select daily values from observations

August 1930-1985

Fre

quen

cy

Monthly Precip (mm/d)

ModelObserved

August 2020-2060

Fre

quen

cy

Monthly Precip (mm/d)

ModelObserved

Page 10: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Downscaling: Precipitation

Page 11: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Downscaling: PET

• Calculate GCM PET from– Temperature, RH & cloud-cover (radiation)– Adjust for climatological bias– No daily downscaling

Page 12: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Downscaling: PET

Page 13: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

River Flows

Page 14: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

River Flows

Month

% C

hang

e

Mean Flow Change: 2020-2039 from 1961-1990

Page 15: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Wimbleball Water Resource Model

• Supplies:– Somerset & Devon (Exeter, Tiverton)

• River & reservoir dominated• 50 ML/d Groundwater• Lancmod WR model

Page 16: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Wimbleball Reservoir: Historic

Monthly Storage, 1930-2005

Month

Sto

rage

(M

l x 1

04 )

Page 17: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Wimbleball Reservoir: 2040 Ensemble

Monthly Storage, 2040

Month

Sto

rage

(M

l x 1

04 )

Page 18: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Wimbleball Reservoir: Changing Risk

September Storage

Year

Sto

rage

(M

l x 1

04 )

Page 19: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Failure to Meet Demand

Devon Demand Failure

Year

No.

Sim

ulat

ions

Page 20: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Failure to Meet Demand

Devon Demand Failure

No.

Sim

ulat

ions

Year

Ave

. Sho

rtfa

ll

Page 21: Mark New Ana Lopez, Fai Fung, Milena Cuellar Funded by Tyndall and Environment Agency

Outstanding Issues / Future Work

• Biases in runoff simulations• Simplistic downscaling• Higher multiple year failures in simulations• Scenarios / ensembles of changing demand• Incorporating adaptation options• Staged methodology• Relative likelihoods• Comparison with UKCIP08 / ENSEMBLES