mark d. myers, phd vice chancellor for research
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Arctic Energy Summit 2013. An Integrated Approach to Oil Spill Research for the Offshore Arctic. Akureyri , Iceland October 9, 2013. Mark D. Myers, PhD Vice Chancellor for Research. Key Drivers That Will Effect Future Oil and Gas Development. Future Demand and Price - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Mark D. Myers, PhDVice Chancellor for Research
Akureyri, IcelandOctober 9, 2013
An Integrated Approach to Oil Spill Research for the Offshore Arctic
Arctic Energy Summit 2013
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Key Drivers That Will Effect Future Oil and Gas Development
1. Future Demand and Price World economy, non OCED and general growth
2. Energy Endowment Oil and gas are where you find it!
3. Development Technology Conventional and Unconventional Resources
4. Access to resourceChallenging environments, infrastructure and geopolitics
5. Environmental risk Particularly wrt oil spills and water (policy, technology
and investment)
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USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Assessment
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Circum-Arctic Non-Petroleum Resources
Lawson BrighamAMSA 12 August 2008
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Diverse Sources of Spill Risk Needs Diverse Response Capacity
Crowley Marine
Anchorage Daily News, 21 Sept 2011/14 Nov 2012
Tugboat runs aground on Alaska Peninsula, stranding crew and barge. ADN : November 14, 2012
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Highly complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and social processes.
Peeling Back the Onion – Understanding the Ecosystem
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is Dead
In the Arctic Stationarity - the concept and practice that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability
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Dramatic Change in Sea Ice ExtentRapid ecosystem change
Increased access to energy, hard minerals and fishery resourcesIncreased shipping, tourism, and community access
National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Photo by Mikhail Kanevskiy
Permafrost Thaw
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Trends of decreasing sea ice and increased open-water fetch, combined with warming air and ground temperatures, are expected to result in higher wave energy, increased seasonal thaw, and accelerated coastal retreat along large parts of circum-Arctic coast.
photo Susan Flora, BLM
photo Cameron Wobus, CIRES
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Coastal Erosion National Petroleum Reserve Alaska
USGS
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Research Tracks Research Outcome
Targeted Observing System
Integrated Modeling and Data Assimilation
Data Dissemination (ERMA Framework)
Food Webs
Shoreline Cleanup and Assessment
Communities, Policy and Infrastructure
Mitigation
Detection
Impacts
Prevention
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Improving Environmental Security & Oil-Spill Response Through an Integrated Coastal Observing System
Remote sensing* (km-scale): Coastal environments & infrastructure, ice hazardsCoastal radar* (sub-km scale): Vessel & ice tracking, ice dynamics & potential disaster responseAerial surveys (including UAVs), ice & sub-ice sensor systems*Local knowledge*: Potentially important role for disaster responseIntegration of data streams, GIS-based decision support systems*Leveraged through integration & assimilation of existing coastal observing system resources supported by NSF, DHS, and NOAA
Eicken, Petrich, Mahoney, et al.; www.sizonet.org
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Oil Trajectory Modeling inIce-Covered Waters
MonitoringPredicting
ProductsDaily to weekly forecasts for spill response and planning
Modeled oil-spill trajectories based on key spill scenarios for EIAs and risk assessments
Assimilation ofdata from the monitoring program into forecast model
Evaluate the capability of current state-of-the-art sea-ice models to predict oil-spill trajectories
Identify key research areas to transition models to operations
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Regions Covered By High-Frequency shore-based, surface mapping radars (Open Water Season)
Coastal AK: NO Power Grid!
UAF built and tested an autonomous power system (wind, solar, & biodiesel).
System: proven, flexible, portable & arctic-proof. Can support other sensors.
The Future?8 radar-RPM systems can cover Beaufort and NE Chukchi (40,000 n.mi.2)
(Supported by: BOEM, DHS and AKDCED)
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Coastal Radars map surface (upper 1 m) currents:
- hourly- over broad areas (~175 km) at
6-km resolution- real-time access via the Web- easily understandable- cost effective
To guide open-water response to marine spills (and other purposes).
Shore-based power available
~4MHz
Funded by:BOEMRE, Shell, and ConocoPhillips
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9/25
9/26
9/27
9/28
Large temporal variability too…
Winsor, UAF, 2013
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SFOS/UAF Autonomous Remote Technology Lab
Operates three Webb Slocum Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) gliders.
Non-propelled, autonomous, quiet, low-power, long-endurance specific AUV up to ~ 3-month missions using lithium batteries.
Two-way, real-time Iridium satellite communication mission change on the fly + relay data to scientists, numerical models and decision makers.
Unique, high-resolution (vertical and horizontal) surface-to-bottom data coverage.
SFOS/UAF Autonomous Remote Technology Lab
Operates three Webb Slocum Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) gliders.
Non-propelled, autonomous, quiet, low-power, long-endurance specific AUV up to ~ 3-month missions using lithium batteries.
Two-way, real-time Iridium satellite communication mission change on the fly + relay data to scientists, numerical models and decision makers.
Unique, high-resolution (vertical and horizontal) surface-to-bottom data coverage.
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2010 Mission accomplishments: AUVs can successfully navigate large portions of the Chukchi Sea 65-day total glider missions using two Webb Slocum gliders >3,000 vertical hydrographic profiles >800 km of glider transects
UAF is the only academic entity operating joint glider/HF radar programs in the Arctic.
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Oil Spill Monitoring Prince William Sound Technology Evaluation (Conoco Phillips
and BP)• Objective: Understand how small-unmanned aircraft can contribute to environmental cleanup operations associated with an oil spill
• Partners:– Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation– US Fish and Wildlife– Environmental Protection Agency
Prince William Sound AirspaceAeroVironment Puma Aircraft
BP’s Aeryon Scout
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Meeting the Arctic Challenge
Unmanned Bering Sea Operation, May 2009
• UAF scientists successfully
overcame these challenges to obtain
high-resolution imagery for an ice
seal survey.
Lack of infrastructure:
• No runways• No cell phones
Harsh conditions:
• Icing potential• Low visibility
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Ice Profiling LIDARDeployed by NASA in Greenland and Svalbard Norway
• Partnership with University of Colorado
LIDAR
Color Visible
SAR
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Other Payloads•Ball Experimental Sea Surface Temperature (BESST) Radiometer:•Resolution: ±0.5 K (uncooled)
•BP Deepwater Horizon • SST from BESST
Miniature Meteorological Dropsondes: Wind speed and
direction Relative humidity Pressure Temperature
as a function of altitude (~ 5m vertical resolution)
Hyperspectral Imager:400-900 nm Up to 240 spectral bins<1 m spatial resolutionPush broom deployment for image cube generation
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R/V SikuliaqLaunched October 2012 - Operational 2014 Seward Based Length 261, ’ 45 day endurance, ice strengthened 20 Crew, 26 Science
Managed and Operated by UAF - Supported by: NSF
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Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Modeling
- High-resolution meteorological model developed
- Performs well year-round- Hindcasting studies underway- Forecasting capability
Wind Speed Wind Direction
Courtesy of Zhang and Zhang; UAF International Arctic Research Center and Arctic Supercomputer Center. Supported by BOEMRE.
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Oil in Ice:Measurement & Simulation
• Cold lab experiments & numerical modeling of oil entrainment & movement through ice
• Goal: Inform oil-spill response in coastal ice settings; improve oil-in-ice detection & modeling of ecological impacts
1
0
Po
rosi
ty
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Food and Cultural Security
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Toxicity of Dispersed Petroleum to Arctic Species
Species selected based upon role in the pelagic food web of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Toxicity tests conducted on ANS crude oil:u Chemically dispersed (COREXIT 9500) u Mechanically dispersed ANS crude oil
Copepod (Calanus glacialis) Sculpin (Myoxocephalus)Arctic cod (Boreogadus)
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Characterize food webs prior to spills
Use post-spill assessment to gage impact and monitor recovery
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Engaged Research Community at UAF: Identified 40 Research Scientists studying topics from Anthropology to Zooplankton
COMMUNITIES
Some Components of an Enhanced Arctic Oil Spill Response Capacity
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Building a Vibrant and Sustainable Future Requires
Research.
Environment
Economy
Human Health and Other Societal Values
• Integrated and authoritative data and technical means including long-term integrated data bases with near real time data
• Better models and decision support tools
• An integrated perspective to make wise decisions
• The best management techniques including effective adaptive management
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Although you can learn much from the outside the conditions in the Arctic have
important differences that need to be considered
• Geology• Physical geography• Ecosystems and rate of ecosystem change• Culture • Infrastructure and access• Climate and weather• Data – depth, breath, and length of record
Rapid adaptation of new and emerging technologies, stronger partnerships and data fusion, and improved modeling, forecasting and planning can be achieved!
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Questions?