Mark A. Ruffalo, Marco Krapels, Mark Z. Jacobson

Planning for a Sustainable Future With Wind, Water and the Sun

Nantucket Project 2012, Nantucket, Mass., October 7, 2012

What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year.

Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10-20 years. Global temperatures are rising at a faster rate than any time in history.

Increasing population is increasing pollution, global warming, and energy prices.

Higher energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability

Drastic problems require immediate and definite solutions

ELECTRIC POWER VEHICLES

Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)

1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. HydroelectricityNot RecommendedNuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas

Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security

Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)

WORLD U.S.NYS

2010 (TW) 12.5 2.500.094

2030 with current fuels 16.9 2.830.096

2030 converting all energy To wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 1.78

0.060

2030 reduction (%) due to WWS 32 37 37

End Use Power Demand For All Purposes

TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER5-MW onshore wind turbines 10%4020 5-MW offshore wind turbines 40

12,7005-kW Res. roof PV systems 6

5 million100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12500,00050-MW Solar PV plants 10

828100-MW CSP plants 10

387100-MW geothermal plants 5

361300-MW hydro plants 5.5

6.6 (89% in place)1-MW tidal turbines 1

26000.75-MW wave devices 0.5

1910

100%

Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS

Area to power 100% of NYS for allpurposeswith WWS

Solar PV+CSP power plants0.85% of NYS

All rooftop PV(0.45% of NYS)

Onshore wind:footprint=0.05 km2

spacing=1.46% of NYS(blue is open space)

Geothermal0.01% of NYS Offshore

wind:spacing= 4.62% of

NYS (blue is open space)

Dvorak et al., 2011

New York StateWind Resources

Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/

Matching Power Demand With Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro

California electricity was found to be obtainable from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006 without over-sizing WWS capacity, using demand-response, or using much CSP storage.

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 2008-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7

≤4Wind offshore 10-17

8-13Wave >>11

4-11Geothermal 4-7

4-7Hydroelectric 4

4CSP 10-15

7-8Solar PV 9-13

5-7Tidal >>11

5-7Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5.3)=12.3 8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3

Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)

Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)

Five states with highest percent of electric power from wind +2 ¢/kWh

Remaining 45 states+3.6 ¢/kWh

States with greatest increases in percent of electricity from wind experienced lowest electric power price increases.

Costs Increase of Residential Electric Power 2003-11

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

)

Health Cost Savings due to WWS in NYS

Air pollution kills 4000/year in NYS, costing $33 billion/year, or 3% of NYS GDP

NYS needs ~270 GW ($570 billion) of installed power to convert to WWS for all purposes. Health cost savings alone would pay for WWS in ~17 y

July 15, 2012 by DS Jacobson

New Jobs and Price Stability From WWS in NYS

WWS will generate 71,000 permanent jobs/year for energy facilities alone.

Since >98% WWS will be in NYS but most fossils are from out of state, conversion to WWS increases NYS jobs.

Since WWS fuels are free, their prices do not fluctuate.

Info.ussolarinstitute.com

Converting to WWS and electricity/H2 will reduce NYS power demand ~37%

Eliminate ~4000 air pollution deaths/yr in NYSReduce air pollution cost to NYS by $33 billion/yr (3% of GDP)Reduce global warming cost to NYS by $3.2 billion/yr by 2050Generate 71,000 permanent jobs/yr for energy facilities

alone.

Economic electricity costs of WWS are now lower than those of fossil fuelsRequires only 0.96% more NYS land for footprint; 1.46% for spacingMultiple methods of addressing WWS variability.

www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html

Summary of Plan to Power NYS with WWS