maritime policy planning model (mppm)
DESCRIPTION
APEC TPTWG21 Port Experts Group 23-24 September 2002, Brisbane. MARITIME POLICY PLANNING MODEL (MPPM). Dong-Woo Ha Economic Affairs Officer Transport and Tourism Diviaion UNESCAP. Integrated Computer Modules. Maritime Policy Planning Model. Developed by the UNESCAP secretariat - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
APEC TPTWG21 Port Experts Group23-24 September 2002, Brisbane
MARITIME POLICY PLANNING MODEL
(MPPM)
Dong-Woo HaEconomic Affairs OfficerTransport and Tourism DiviaionUNESCAP
APEC TPT-WG21 Port Experts Group 2
Maritime Policy Planning Model
Developed by the UNESCAP secretariatA set of computer modules covering trade, shipping and ports
Trade ModuleLiner Shipping Network ModulePort Strategic Planning Module
Integrated Computer Modules
APEC TPT-WG21 Port Experts Group 3
MPPM Model Structure
Trade Module
LinerShippingNetworkModule
PortStrategicPlanningModule
CIY Port DataO-D DataPort share
RoutesService details
Vessel description
Port classTEU/ship-hour
Fleetrequired
Vessel callsat ports
Portthroughputs
Port capacityrequired
Port-to-portcargo flows
Input
Output
APEC TPT-WG21 Port Experts Group 4
What can MPPM do?O-D 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n Total1 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 .. X1n R1
2 X21 X22 X23 X24 X25 X26 X27 .. X2n R2
3 X31 X32 X33 X34 X35 X36 X37 .. X3n R3
4 X41 X42 X43 X44 X45 X46 X47 .. X4n R4
5 X51 X52 X53 X54 X55 X56 X57 .. X5n R5
6 X61 X62 X63 X64 X65 X66 X67 .. X6n R6
7 X71 X72 X73 X74 X75 X76 X77 .. X7n R7
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..m Xm1 Xm2 Xm3 Xm4 Xm5 Xm6 Xm7 .. Xmn Rn
Total C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 .. Cn Y0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Ship Size (TEU)
Nu
mb
er
of
Sh
ips
2011 Base Case 2011 Big Ships
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 Base 2011 Big Ships 2011
Mill
ion
TEU
Kobe/Osaka
Tokyo/Yokohama
Gwangyang
Busan
Kaohsiung
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Tanjung Pelepas
Port Klang
Singapore
Colombo
26
6467
N Asia18.7%
S Asia6.6%
Other Asia4.4%
E Asia40.9%
SE Asia29.4%
216 million TEUBase Case
2011
SE Asia29.4%
S Asia5.2%
Other Asia5.3%
E Asia40.0%
N Asia20.0%
95 million TEU1999
North Asia20%
East Asia38%
S Asia9%
Other Asia4%
South East Asia29%
88
162
124
4119
Total number of additional berths required: 434
APEC TPT-WG21 Port Experts Group 5
Limitations of the Model
Simple trade projection modelsLimitations on port numbersRestrictions on transhipment nodesNo specific links between feeder and mainlineLack of intermodal representationNot user friendly
APEC TPT-WG21 Port Experts Group 6
Upgrade of MPPM
Collaboration between UNESCAP and KMIPrevious MPPM Studies (1994, 1997, 2001)MOU (1998)
MPPM upgrade project (2002-2003)Advanced computer modeling technologyExpand capacity of number of ports. transshipment nodes to cover the worldIntermodal connectionUser friendly
ESCAP Forecast Port Container Throughputs by Country (2011)
(Unit : ,000 TEU)
774
1,323
1,347
5,372
6,410
46,219
6,145
5,808
14,556
25,322
1,701
22,772
17,087
30,940
481
1,151
(Unit : ,000 TEU)
774
1,323
1,347
5,372
6,410
46,219
6,145
5,808
14,556
25,322
1,701
22,772
17,087
30,940
481
1,151
APEC TPT-WG21 Port Experts Group 8
New APEC-wide Study
A new study to cover the whole APEC region Cooperation of participating countries will be critical
Provide information and data Feed-back
Enhance collaboration between APEC and ESCAP
Thank you
MPPM
APEC TPTWG21 Port Experts Group23-24 September 2002, Brisbane