California Marine Engine Emissions Inventory and Pleasure Craft Survey

Jeff WasilVicky Yu

Mi i I i l B ShMiami International Boat Show February 2015

Introduction

• California ARB continually looking at marineCalifornia ARB continually looking at marine engine/boat emissions reductions– Catalyst based outboardsCatalyst based outboards– More stringent EVAP controls– Refueling standards, active vapor recoveryg , p y– Chemical disclosures, labeling requirements– Detailed applicationspp

“California has the worst air quality in the country”q y y

Introduction

• But just how meaningful are these proposalsBut just how meaningful are these proposals and what affect with they have on the overall air quality/emissions inventory in CA?air quality/emissions inventory in CA?

Introduction

• With some of our industry data together withWith some of our industry data, together with CA pleasure craft survey/registration data– Leverage this information to potentially make a– Leverage this information to potentially make a much more meaningful contribution to emissions reduction

Pleasure Craft Surveyy

• Conducted by the Institute for Social ResearchConducted by the Institute for Social Research      California State University– Approximately 1150 participants in survey– Approximately 1150 participants in survey– Targeted participants based on DMV and Coast Guard registration informationGuard registration information

Pleasure Craft Surveyy

• Questions included:Questions included:– What year is your boat?Carbureted or fuel injection?– Carbureted or fuel injection?

– What material is fuel tank?H d did t b t ?– How many days did you operate your boat ?

– …About 32 questions in total

Pleasure Craft Survey Resultsy

• Nearly 21% of the boats were from Model Year 2001‐2005

Model Year of Pleasure Craft

y

200

250

ses

100

150

umbe

r of C

as

1970‐ 1976‐ 1981‐ 1986‐ 1991‐ 1996‐ 2001‐ 2006‐0

50

Nu

19701975

19761980

19811985

19861990

19911995

19962000

20012005

20062007

Series1 68 96 120 186 158 211 233 51

Pleasure Craft Survey Resultsy

• Data can be approximately split into oldData can be approximately split into old technology and new technology– 1970 to 2000– 1970 to 2000– 2001 to 2007

Results of California Survey ‐ Age of Pleasure Craft 

75%

25% 1970‐200025% 1970 20002001‐2007

Pleasure Craft Survey Resultsy

• Approximately 50% of engine population useApproximately 50% of engine population use carburetors

Carburetor Fuel Injection Don't know

Engine Retirement Ratesg

• Data from NMMA and the NationalData from NMMA and the National Automobile Dealers Association 

A• Average powerboat 

i tscrapping rate: ~2.5% compared t 5% fto 5% for automotive

1.National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), NADA Data State of the Industry Report. 2013.2. National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA), 2012 Recreational Boating Statistical Abstract. 2013.

California Outboard Engine Sales (Old Technology and New Technology) 1990 2014

140000

16000

18000

Technology) 1990-2014

100000

120000

12000

14000

16000

er o

f Uni

ts

nits

60000

80000

6000

8000

10000

ativ

e N

umbe

umbe

r of U

n

20000

40000

2000

4000

6000

Cum

ulaN

00

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Year

Source: NMMA Statistics

Old Technology New Technology Cumulative Old Technology Cumulative New Technology

AssumptionsAssumptions

• Average engine 85HP (64kW) ICOMIA 12kWAverage engine 85HP (64kW) ICOMIA 12kW• Average old technology HC+NOx 130g/kW‐hr

h l C 6 /k h• Average new technology HC+Nox 16g/kW‐hr• 35 hours/year operation• 2.5% engine retirement rate

Attempt to understand to overall impact of old and newAttempt to understand to overall impact of old and new technology on the CA inventory

Emissions Inventory Projection (HC+NOx) Outboard Engines

7000

7700

100

110

Old technology engines  will be exhausted in ~2044

4900

5600

6300

Ox] 70

80

90 will be exhausted in ~2044 (30  years from now)

2800

3500

4200

% [H

C+N

O

40

50

60

700

1400

2100

10

20

30

0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

YEAR

DirtyNormalized tons of emissions

Emissions Inventory Projection (HC+NOx) Outboard Engines

7000

7700

100

110

4900

5600

6300

Ox] 70

80

90

2800

3500

4200

% [H

C+N

O

40

50

60

700

1400

2100

10

20

30

0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

YEAR

Dirty Clean (16g/kW-hr)

Emissions Inventory Projection (HC+NOx) Outboard Engines

7000

7700

100

110

2044 until you reach 20% of emissions inventory

4900

5600

6300

Ox] 70

80

90 of emissions inventory

2800

3500

4200

% [H

C+N

O

40

50

60

700

1400

2100

10

20

30

0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

YEAR

Dirty Clean (16g/kW-hr) Sum

90%

100% 2015 – CURRENT EMISSIONS INVENTORY

80%

90%

60%

70%

50%

40%

30%

10%

20%

Nothing CAT all outboards Incentive for older outboards Remaining emissions

0%

10%

Total HC+NOx Emissions [%] 

90%

100% 2019• Do nothing but sell current engines

80%

90% • Do nothing but sell current engines• Emissions will be reduced by 13%(I 5 f ld t h l

60%

70% • (In 5‐years, fewer old technology engines)

50%

40%

30%

10%

20%

Nothing CAT all outboards Incentive for older outboards Remaining emissions

0%

10%

Total HC+NOx Emissions [%] 

90%

100% 2019 • More stringent emissions standards 

80%

90% gTODAY (100%)

• 13% from old technology retirement; f l

60%

70% 10% from lower emissions engines

50%

40%

30%

10%

20%

Nothing CAT all outboards Incentive for older outboards Remaining emissions

0%

10%

Total HC+NOx Emissions [%] 

90%

100% 2019 • Engine Incentive Program for 3 years…

80%

90% Engine Incentive Program for 3 years…• Potential to reduce emissions by 55%

60%

70%

50%

40%

30%

10%

20%

Nothing CAT all outboards Incentive for older outboards Remaining emissions

0%

10%

Total HC+NOx Emissions [%] 

SummarySummary

• Leverage this data when faced with increasedLeverage this data when faced with increased regulation

• Increased sales of 15% to 20% and retirementIncreased sales of 15% to 20% and retirement of older technology engines will make a very meaningful impact 

• Next steps – explore feasibility of an incentive p p yprogram/regulatory framework to support such a program