maribel lopez may 5
TRANSCRIPT
MOBILITY AND THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARE
Maribel D. Lopez
Lopez Research
May 5, 2009
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Mobility by the numbers
Nokia solid 472M cell phones in 2008
China and India lead the world in mobile subs
India added 13 M subs in Feb. 09
China Mobile adds an average 6.3M subs per month
4B WW mobile subscribers at the end of ’08
Household penetration: US 88%, Italy 145%, Hong Kong 168%
Enterprise is also growing
58% penetration of WLAN in large enterprises
32% mobile data penetration in NA
Wireless data ARPU has exceeded 20% for most carriers with the notable exception of India
3
Elements come together to provide a new world of mobility
Carriers build better nets
Device manufacturers provide a innovative foundations
– Accelerometers
– Cameras
– GPS
– Improved battery
– Touch screens
– Video
4
Apple illustrates a shift in mobility
Innovation by improving the basics
A better storefront
A reasonable revenue share model
25,000 Apps
Over 1 billion app downloads
And the best reason to focus on mobility – consumers love their devices
6
The Evolution of Mobility
CONNECT SEAMLESSLY
Time
CONNECT BROADLY
GET CONNECTED
1990 2013+2010
Web 1.0 and Mobile 1.0 focused on getting connected
>10kmBroadcast
DVB, DAB
Mobile 2.0 focuses on connecting seamlessly across networks
Mobile
802.11 hotspots
WiMAX
0.1-
10km
10-100m
Wi-Fi
Mobile
Zigbee
1-10mBluetooth
UWB, RFID
<1m
Wires
USB, Firewire,
Powerline
telephone
NFC
IR
Hotel
ADSL / Ethernet
Wi-Fi
ISDN/PSTN
RFID, Sensors
Technologies will vary by location but become transparent to the use
At home
ADSL/Ethernet
PSTN
Wi_Fi, Zigbee
3G/GPRS/EDGE/HSDPA
On the road
3G/GPRS/EDGE/HSDPA WiMAX
RFID Sensors
Office
LAN/Ethernet
Wi-Fi
3G/GPRS
EDGE/HSDPA WiMAX
Homeworkers
LAN/Ethernet
3G/GPRS (4G)
EDGE/HSDPA
PSTN/ISDN
Public places
Wi-Fi
3G/GPRS/EDGE/HSDPA
PSTN/ISDN
At the venue
Wi-Fi, 3G+ WiMAX
Building Seamless
Connectivity across
devices and
networks
But connecting seamlessly moves beyond integrating access
Category Get Connected Connect Seamlessly
# of Networks Multiple disparate networks Interconnected wired and wireless networks
Types of devices Few (Laptops and cell phones ) Many (Gaming consoles, ereaders, netbooks)
# of devices per individual 1-3 3+
Communications features Voice and location on cell phones
Multi-device comm.-enablement (voice, video, presence and location)
Market focus Connectivity Application and services
Phase 3: Connect broadly means people to things and things to things
Source: 4G OWA meeting
The Future: The Semantic Web
Device proliferation creates opportunities and challenges for software vendors
No one OS to rule them all….in fact there are at least 8
15
Distribution and licensing changes
New distribution channels
Competition improves the carrier channel
Sales are global not just local
Revenue models differ by channel
New licensing models
Per device to per user
But users devices can be uniquely identified
Build strategies that take into account the expected
Plan to design in multiple OSs but prioritize
Create a business development team to support new app stores
Define a cloud strategy
Design software to support both on-device and in-cloud access
The path ahead
Thank you
Maribel Lopez
Lopez Research
+1 617 872 8631
Twitter: MaribelLopez