March 15, 2016 Dr. France A. Córdova, Director National Science Foundation 4201 Wilson Blvd., Suite 1205 Arlington, VA 22230 Mr. Charles F. Bolden, Jr., Administrator Office of the Administrator NASA Headquarters Washington, DC 20546-0001 Dr. Ernest Moniz, Secretary of Energy U.S. Department of Energy 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 The Honorable John Thune, Chairman Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 The Honorable Lisa Murkowski, Chairwoman Committee on Energy & Natural Resources United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 The Honorable Lamar Smith, Chairman Committee on Science, Space and Technology United States House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Dr. Córdova, Mr. Bolden, Secretary Moniz, Chairman Thune, Chairwoman Murkowski, and Chairman Smith: I am pleased to transmit to you the annual report of the Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory Committee for 2015–2016. The Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory Committee was established under the National Science Foundation Authorization Act of 2002 Public Law 107-368 to:

(1) assess, and make recommendations regarding, the coordination of astronomy and astrophysics programs of the Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Energy;

Dr. France Córdova March 15, 2016 Dr. Charles Bolden, Jr. Dr. Ernest Moniz Page 2 Senator John Thune Senator Lisa Murkowski Representative Lamar Smith

(2) assess, and make recommendations regarding, the status of the activities of the Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Energy as they relate to the recommendations contained in the National Research Council's 2010 report entitled New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, and the recommendations contained in subsequent National Research Council reports of a similar nature;

(3) not later than March 15 of each year, transmit a report to the Director, the Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Secretary of Energy, the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation of the United States Senate, the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources of the United States Senate, and the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of the United States House of Representatives, on the Advisory Committee's findings and recommendations under paragraphs (1) and (2).

The attached document is the thirteenth such report. The executive summary is followed by the report, with findings and recommendations for NSF, NASA and DOE regarding their support of the nation’s astronomy and astrophysics research enterprise, along with detailed recommendations concerning specific projects and programs. I would be glad to provide you with a personal briefing if you so desire. Sincerely yours, on behalf of the Committee,

Angela Olinto Homer J. Livingston Professor Chair, Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory Committee cc: Senator Bill Nelson, Ranking Member, Committee on Commerce, Science and

Transportation, United States Senate Senator Maria Cantwell, Ranking Member, Committee on Energy & Natural Resources United States Senate

Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, Ranking Member, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, United States House of Representatives

Senator Ted Cruz, Chairman, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, United States Senate

Senator Gary Peters, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, United States Senate

Senator Richard Shelby, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate

Senator Barbara Mikulski, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate

Senator Lamar Alexander, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate

Senator Dianne Feinstein, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate

Dr. France Córdova March 15, 2016 Dr. Charles Bolden, Jr. Dr. Ernest Moniz Page 3 Senator John Thune Senator Lisa Murkowski Representative Lamar Smith

Representative Barbara Comstock, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Research and Technology, Committee on Science, Space and Technology, United States House of Representatives

Representative Daniel Lipinski, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Research and Technology, Committee on Science, Space and Technology, United States House of Representatives

Representative Mike Simpson, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, United States House of Representatives

Representative Marcy Kaptur, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, Committee on Appropriations, United States House of Representatives

Representative John Culberson, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, United States House of Representatives

Representative Mike Honda, Acting Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, United States House of Representatives

Representative Brian Babin, Chairman, Subcommittee on Space, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, United States House of Representatives

Representative Donna Edwards, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Space, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, United States House of Representatives

Dr. Fleming Crim, Assistant Director, Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Science Foundation

Dr. John Grunsfeld, Associate Administrator, Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Dr. Geoffrey Yoder, Deputy Associate Administrator, Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Dr. Paul Hertz, Director, Astrophysics Division, Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Dr. Patricia Dehmer, Deputy Director for Science Programs, Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

Dr. James Siegrist, Director, Office of High Energy Physics, U.S. Department of Energy Dr. Glen Crawford, Division Director, Research and Technology Division, Office of High Energy

Physics, U.S. Department of Energy Dr. Kathleen Turner, Program Manager, Office of High Energy Physics, U.S. Department of

Energy Dr. Jo Handelsman, Associate Director for Science, Office of Science and Technology Policy,

Executive Office of the President Dr. Tamara Dickinson, Principal Asst. Director for Environment and Energy, Office of Science

and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President Dr. J.D. Kundu, Program Examiner, NSF, Office of Management and Budget Dr. Grace Hu, Program Examiner, NASA, Office of Management and Budget Dr. Avital Bar-Shalom, Program Examiner, DOE, Office of Management and Budget Dr. James Ulvestad, Director, Division of Astronomical Sciences, National Science Foundation Dr. David Boboltz, Acting Deputy Division Director, Division of Astronomical Sciences, National

Science Foundation Dr. Christopher Davis, Program Director, Division of Astronomical Sciences, National Science

Foundation

Dr. France Córdova March 15, 2016 Dr. Charles Bolden, Jr. Dr. Ernest Moniz Page 4 Senator John Thune Senator Lisa Murkowski Representative Lamar Smith

Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory Committee Members:

Dr. James Buckley, Washington University at St. Louis Dr. Craig Hogan, University of Chicago Dr. David Hogg, New York University Dr. Klaus Honscheid, The Ohio State University Dr. Buell Jannuzi, University of Arizona, Steward Observatory Dr. Lisa Kaltenegger, Cornell University Dr. Rachel Mandelbaum, Carnegie-Mellon University Dr. Angela Olinto, University of Chicago, Chair Dr. William Smith, ScienceWorks International Dr. Angela Speck, University of Missouri Dr. Suzanne Staggs, Princeton University Dr. Jean Turner, University of California, Los Angeles Dr. Martin White, University of California, Berkeley

ReportoftheAstronomyandAstrophysicsAdvisoryCommittee

March15,2016

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ContentsContents.......................................................................................................................................................1

ExecutiveSummary.....................................................................................................................................2

CollectedFindingsandRecommendations..................................................................................................2

1) Introduction.........................................................................................................................................5

2) ScienceHighlights................................................................................................................................7

3) InteragencyCoordinationandCooperation........................................................................................7

4) StatusandImplementationofDecadalSurveys.................................................................................9

4.1Overview............................................................................................................................................9

4.2NWNHprioritiesandrecommendations.........................................................................................10

4.3CurrentContext:ExtantMajorPrograms.......................................................................................12

4.4TheNSF/ASTPortfolioReview:ImplementationofRecommendations...........................................13

4.5ImplementationofNWNHRecommendations.................................................................................16

4.6TheMid-DecadalReview..................................................................................................................18

4.7CoordinationwithP5recommendations.........................................................................................19

4.8SummaryAssessmentofAgencyResponsetoDecadalSurveys......................................................21

5) BudgetSummaryandImpact...........................................................................................................23

6) CompetedGrantsfallingsuccessrates..............................................................................................26

6.1Overview..........................................................................................................................................26

6.2Decliningsuccessratesforproposals...............................................................................................27

6.3Summaryoffindingsandrecommendations...................................................................................28

AppendixA:RecentAdvancesinAstronomy&Astrophysics....................................................................30

AppendixB:ExplanationofAcronyms.......................................................................................................36

Thecoverimageisamodelskyneartwoapproximately30solarmassblackholesabouttocoalescetoproduce the first gravitational wave ever directly detected. The image includes starlight bent by theextremegravityneartheholes,aswellasmultiple imagesoftheholesthemselves.(Imageproducedbythe Simulating eXtreme Spacetimes, SXS, Project.) The actual signal appeared on September 14, in bothAdvanced LIGO detectors. “The source lies at a luminosity distance of 410 (+160−180) Mpccorrespondingtoaredshiftz=0.09(+0.03/-0.04). Inthesourceframe,theinitialblackholemassesare36 (+5−4) Msolar and 29 (+4−4) Msolar, and the final black hole mass is 62 (+4/−4) Msolar, with 3.0(+0.5−0.5)Msolarc2radiatedingravitationalwaves”(LIGOcollaboration,PRL116,061102(2016)).

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ExecutiveSummary

US investment in astronomy and astrophysics continues to create an outstanding portfolio ofpreeminent research facilities thathave revolutionizedourunderstandingof theUniverse, fascinatingthepublicandinspiringnewgenerationsofscientistsandengineers.

The Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory Committee (AAAC) is chartered to assess and makerecommendations regarding the coordination of NSF, NASA, and DOE astronomy programs and thestatusof theactivities relative to theprioritiesof theNationalResearchCouncil (NRC)decadal surveyNewWorlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (NWNH) and its predecessors. This AAACreportsummarizestheprogressinastronomyandastrophysicsandthesupportbytheagenciesoverthelastyear.

The past yearwitnessedmomentous scientific results, excellent agency coordination, and continuousprogress toward theconstructionof the toppriorities inNWNH. Thechallengingbudgetenvironmenthas strained the balance of the portfolio, causing a significant decline of success rates in competedgrantsasdiscussedintheattached“CompetedGrantSuccessRatesinUSAstronomyandAstrophysics”report.

We list our findings and recommendations below. (Acronyms are introduced in the text and listed inAppendixB.)

CollectedFindingsandRecommendations

Section2

FINDING: Thanks to US investment in basic research at NSF, NASA, and DOE, the US program inAstronomyandAstrophysicshasachievedspectacularbreakthroughsoverthepastyear.

Section3

FINDING:USagenciesworkwelltogethertosupporttheprioritiesofthescientificcommunity,bothincollaborationonlargemanagedprojectsandincoordinationofdiverseresearchprograms.

FINDING: Someunique information in thehighquality data thatwill beobtained in several futuresurveys— particularly LSST, Euclid, andWFIRST—will be significantly enhanced by combining theiranalysisatanearly“pixel”stage,ratherthanamorehighlyreducedcatalogstage.

RECOMMENDATION:Whereitcanimproveoverallscienceproductivityandefficiency,cooperationindatabase design and data sharing is encouraged among US agencies, international agencies, andscientificcollaborations.

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FINDING: The most cost effective approach to discovering and mapping the orbits of earth-threatening solar system objects (“Near Earth Objects” or NEOs) is likely to include a significantcontribution from ground-based telescope facilities. Achieving the congressionally mandated goalswilllikelyrequirecooperationbetweenNSFandNASA.

FINDING: With its history of successes funded by NASA, NSF, and DOE, CMB science crosses theboundaries of agencies. Third generation ground-based efforts and suborbital payloads are nowreachingthesensitivitythatcouldenableground-breakingdiscoveriesofCMBB-modes.

FINDING:Thescientificcommunitystudyingthecosmicmicrowavebackgroundhasmadesignificantprogressonaunifiedstrategy fora fourthgeneration,ground-basedsurveyof theUniverse (“CMB-S4”),ordersofmagnitudemorecapablethancurrentexperiments,withenormouspotential fornewscientific discovery. A larger role of DOE coordinated with NSF is important to realize the greatscientificpotentialofCMB-S4.

RECOMMENDATION: We encourage DOE, NSF, and the university community to continueworkingtowardaplanforafuture(Stage4)ground-basedCMBexperiment.

Section4.4

FINDING:TheNSFDivisionofAstronomicalScienceshasdoneacommendablejoboffindingcreativesolutions to respond to the recommendationsmadeby thePortfolioReviewCommittee (PRC)whilelimitingpermanentshutdownofanumberoffacilities.TheseactionsservetoreducetheamounttheNSF/ASTisspendingontheoperatingbudgetsoflegacyfacilitiesandthusmoveclosertothedesiredbalanceintheportfoliorecommendedbythePRC.

FINDING: Divestments recommendedby thePortfolioReviewareproceeding, butat a slowerpacethananticipatedduetothecomplexitiesofdecommissioningandtheongoingsearchesforoperatingpartners.

FINDING:ThelossofopenaccessfacilitiesresultsinacosttotheUSusercommunities,intermsoflossofopennightsandaccesstoavarietyofinstruments.

RECOMMENDATION: Strong efforts by NSF for facility divestment should continue as fast as ispractical.Effortstoexplorepartnerships, interagencycooperationandprivateresourcestomaintainsome access to facilities for the US community that may mitigate the loss of open access shouldcontinue.TransferringthecostofoperatingafacilityoutsideoftheNSF/ASTbudget ispreferabletocompletelossofacapabilityfromthesuiteofcapabilitiesusedbyUSresearchers.

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Section4.8

FINDING:TheagenciesareworkingtogethertoensurethatthehighestprioritiesofNWNH,WFIRSTand LSST, aremoving forward.WFIRST has recently successfullymoved into the formulation phaseunder the guidance of NASA, and LSST is well into the construction phase, with the camera underconstructionunderDOEsupportandfacilityconstructionintheMREFClineatNSFledbyAST.

FINDING: TheNSFMSIP program is funded at a levelwell below that envisioned inNWNH, but isbecomingtheonlymechanismavailable for fundingthehighpriorityactivitiesadvocated inNWNH.NSF/AST is fundingMSIPat thehighest levelcommensuratewithprogrambalance.Theprogram issupportinga largernumberofprojectswitha lowerbudgetandnotabletosupportthehighercostprojectsasenvisionedbyNWNH.

FINDING:BudgetaryconstraintshavenotallowedprogressonrecommendationsforaUSpartnershipinanoptical/infraredGiantSegmentedMirrorTelescope(GSMT).

FINDING: Budgetary constraints have not allowed progress on amajor new X-ray telescope (IXO).NASA isworkingtowardsUSparticipation in theESAATHENAprojectproviding future resources fortheUSastronomyandastrophysics.

FINDING: The international CTA consortium is moving forward to build the CTA observatory. USparticipation at a more modest level than envisioned by NWNH would still enable US access andleadershiproles.USfundingforCTAmaybeattainablethroughcompetedmid-scalefundingsuchastheMSIPprograminNSF/ASTandmid-scaleprogramofNSF/PHY.FINDING: Gravitationalwaveastrophysics isnowareality.Thisexcitingnewfield,atthefrontierofphysics and astrophysics, will benefit greatly from cooperation among agencies as it continues todevelopandgeneratenewscienceareasinitswake.

RECOMMENDATION: TheAAACencouragesNASA to continueworking towarda plan to developaspace-basedgravitationalwaveobservatoryasenvisionedbyNWNH,throughparticipationintheESAL3gravitationalwaveeffort.

RECOMMENDATION: Theagencies should continue topursue internationalpartnerships inorder tofurtheraccomplish thegoalsofNWNH.TheAAAC’s“Principles forAccess toLargeFederallyFundedAstrophysicsProjectsandFacilities”shouldguidetheprocess.

Section5FINDING:SpendingforastronomyandastrophysicsresearchcontinuestolagtheoptimisticscenariosincludedinNWNH.Lackofaconsistentfundingstreamputssomeoftheagencyprogramsatriskanddoesnotsupportthelongtermplanningneededtoexecutethedecadalsurveyplan.

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RECOMMENDATION: WeurgethatthefullprogrammaticfundingrequiredbythethreeagenciestoexecutetheirFY2017plans,asdescribedintheirbudgetrequests,beprovided.

Section6FINDING: Over the lastdecadeproposal successrates inAstronomyandAstrophysicshavedroppedsignificantly.Thisisnotprincipallytheresultofadeclineinproposalmerit,changingdemographics,or an increase in the average funding request per proposal (beyond inflation). Rather this is aconsequenceofflatordecliningbudgetsforindividualinvestigatorgrants,moreinvestigators,andalarger proportion of multiple and resubmitted proposals. In the absence of facility divestment byNSF/ASToverthecomingyears,proposalsuccessrateisexpectedtodeclineevenfurther.

FINDING: Avery lowproposalsuccessrate impactsbothresearchersandtheagencies. Researchersspend more time resubmitting meritorious but unfunded proposals and serving on review panels.Some researchers may elect to leave the field or decide not to pursue original and potentiallytransformative research. Agencies must manage the increased workload, staffing problems, andincreasedcostsassociatedwithreviewingmoreproposals.

RECOMMENDATION:Communitybasedgroups,suchastheAASandtheAPS,shouldstudytherecentandprojectedgrowthoftheleadingUSastronomyandastrophysicsresearchcommunityforthenextdecadalsurveyplanningexerciseoftheendofthisdecade.

1) Introduction

The 2016 Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory Committee (AAAC) annual report summarizes theimpressive scientific and programmatic achievements over that last year resulting from our long-standingnational investments,andmakesrecommendationstocontinuethesuccessofUSastronomyand astrophysics in the future. Astronomy and astrophysics research continues to expand ourunderstandingoftheUniverse,ourplaceinit,andthefundamentallawsthatgovernitsevolutionandofthesystemsitcontains.

Thisyear’sscientifichighlightisthemomentousdiscoveryofgravitationalwavesbytheAdvancedLaserInterferometerGravitational-WaveObservatory (LIGO) detectors. This discovery crowns a century oldefforttostudyGravity,themostchallengingforcetomaster,atitsmostextreme.TheannouncedeventrevealsforthefirsttimeanewformofenergypredictedbyEinstein100yearsago.Italsounveilsnewsystems of massive stellar black holes never observed before. Heralding the dawn of a new era ofgravitational wave astrophysics, we note that this awe-inspiring detectionwasmade possible by thelong-standingsupportofbasicresearchbytheUSthroughtheNationalScienceFoundation(NSF).

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Thepastyearalsowitnessedthediscoveryof17newMilkyWaysatellites,likelyastrophysicalsitesfordark matter detection, by the Dark Energy Survey (DES), a project jointly supported by NSF andDepartment of Energy (DOE). DES also produced weak lensing mass maps, aimed at studying theevolutionofdarkenergyanddarkmatterinthepastfewbillionyears.ThePlanckSurveyormappedthesky across more than a decade of wavelengths. During this past year, the Atacama LargeMillimeter/submillimeterArray(ALMA)observedtheearlystagesofplanetformationandthenumberof exoplanet candidates detected with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)Kepler and K2missions surpassed four thousand, vastly expanding our understanding of planets andnurturingthepublic’sspiritofadventureanddiscovery.

TheAAACassessesandmakesrecommendationsregardingthecoordinationoftheNSF,NASA,andtheDOEastronomyandastrophysicsprogramsandthestatusoftheactivitiesrelativetotheprioritiesoftheNational Research Council (NRC) decadal survey New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy andAstrophysics (NWNH)i and its predecessors. The AAAC reports the committee’s assessments andrecommendationsannuallytotheSecretaryofEnergy,theNASAAdministrator,theNSFDirector,andtorelevantcommitteesintheHouseandSenate.Thiscommunicationrepresentstheannualreportofthe2015-2016committee.

The highest priorities ofNWNH aremoving forward well. On the ground, the Large Synoptic SurveyTelescope(LSST)isbeingbuiltwithastrongNSFandDOEpartnershipforconstructionandoperations.In space, the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is progressing well having moved intoformulationphase (PhaseA) in February2016under strongNASA stewardshipof scienceandprojectteams.

SecondprioritiesofNWNHandtheportfoliobalanceofthecoreprogramhavebeendifficulttoachievegiven challenging budgetary constraints for both ground and space efforts. In particular, the strongdecline incompetedgrantssuccess rates is thesubjectofadedicatedstudyby theAAACattached tothisreport,namedCompetedGrantSuccessRatesinUSAstronomyandAstrophysics.Thebaseprogramofcompetedgrants isunderstress throughout thesystem.Particularlyserious is thetrend in theNSFDivision of Astronomical Sciences (AST) where success rates are below historic minima and will befurtheraggravatedbyupcomingoperationsofnewfacilities.AvigorousimplementationofthePortfolioReview recommendations complemented with an increase in the AST base budget is recommendedbeforesuccessratesdeclineevenfurther.Abalancedportfolio iscrucialtobetterrealizethescientificpotential of the leading facilities and missions and to maintain the success of US astronomy andastrophysicsinthefuture.

Since March 15, 2015, the AAAC has had two face-to-face meetings and two teleconferences.Representatives of the three agencies have given briefings and provided input on the status of theirprograms.Atthetimeofthewritingofthisreport,theFY16agencyspendingplanshavenotyetbeenapprovedbyCongress, and theFY17President’sbudget requesthas recentlybeen released.Weurgethat the full programmatic funding requiredby the three agencies to execute their FY 2017plans, asdescribedintheirbudgetrequests,beprovided.

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2) ScienceHighlightsTherehavebeenmanyimportantastrophysicsbreakthroughsduringthepastyear. Inthissection,welistasmallsubsetoftheseresults,withmoreinformationprovidedinAppendixA.A1: The NSF-funded Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)collaborationreportedthefirsteverdetectionofgravitationalwaves,apredictionofGeneralRelativitythathadneverbeendirectlyobservedbeforenow.Thisincrediblydifficultmeasurementrepresentstheculminationofdecadesofwork,andopensupanewfieldofgravitationalwaveastronomy.A2: Seventeen newMilkyWay satellites, dwarf galaxies that are gravitationally bound to ourGalaxy,havebeen identified indata from theDark Energy Survey (DES),whichuses theDark EnergyCamera(DECam)toimagethesouthernskyfundedbyDOEandNSF.Newdwarfgalaxieswerealsodiscoveredin a nearby galaxy cluster. These discoveries shed new light on the smallest, most dark matter-dominatedgalaxiesintheUniverse,whichhasimplicationsforourcosmologicalmodel.A3: The Dark Energy Survey, having completed its third of five observing seasons, released its firstscienceresults.Theseincludewidely-publicizedweaklensingmassmaps,whichrevealtheinfluenceofdarkenergyonthegrowthofstructureinthedistributionofdarkmatterinthepastfewbillionyears.A4: The Planck collaboration released science results for cosmic microwave background (CMB)observations spanning their full four-year mission, and the NASA CMB balloon mission Spidersuccessfullycarriedoutitsobservationsin2015.A5:MorethanfourthousandexoplanetcandidateshavebeendetectedwithNASA’sKeplerandtheK2missions.AmongthoseaboutadozenaresmallenoughtoberockyandorbitwithintheHabitablezoneof theirhost star,where they receive similar stellar insolation to that receivedby theEarth from theSun.Amongtheseexoplanetsareonesthatorbitandtransitclose-bystars,whichscientistscanstudyinmoredetailwithgroundandspacebasedtelescopes.A6: The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observed the early stage of planetformationaroundsingleandbinarystars.

FINDING: Thanks to US investment in basic research at NSF, NASA, and DOE, the US program inAstronomyandAstrophysicshasachievedspectacularbreakthroughsoverthepastyear.

3) InteragencyCoordinationandCooperation

There are many successful examples of the three agencies working cooperatively. One successfulparadigm is the program of cosmic surveys: the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS, begun in 1990), DES(currentlycollectingdata),DarkEnergySpectroscopic Instrument (DESI, indevelopment),andthe firstpriorityinNWNHforground-basedprojects,theLSST(nowunderconstruction,andtoconcludeitsmainoperationsaround2032).Oftenintheseprojects,whichhavetransformednotonlyastronomybutalso

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much other science, NSF provides the telescope, DOE contributes the instrument, and both bringcomputationalandscientificanalysisexpertise.

NASAalsopartnerswithbothoftheotheragencies;forexample,theFermiGamma-raySpaceTelescopehadprincipal instrumentsbuiltbyDOE,andground-basedfollow-upobservationsenabledbyNSF.TheNASAfundedExtremePrecisionDopplerSpectrometer(EPDS)instrumentattheWisconsin-Indiana-Yale-NOAO (WIYN) telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) part of the National OpticalAstronomyObservatory (NOAO) fundedbyNSF/ASTwill address theNWNHpriority of high-precisionradial velocity surveysof nearby stars in order to validate and characterize exoplanet candidatesandamplifythescienceimpactoftheTransitingExoplanetSurveySatellite(TESS)mission.TheHubbleSpaceTelescope routinely makes observations that benefit from complementary observations from theground:forexample,bylargeraperturetelescopes,orradiowaveobservations.

FINDING:USagenciesworkwelltogethertosupporttheprioritiesofthescientificcommunity,bothincollaborationonlargemanagedprojectsandincoordinationofdiverseresearchprograms.

Muchof the successof digital-age surveys, startingwith the SloanDigital Sky Survey, has come fromunanticipated impacts enabled by broad access and thoughtfully conceived databases and tools. Theproliferationofnewhighqualitysurveydatafrommanydifferentsourcesintroducesanewintegrationchallenge, and new opportunities for agencies tomaximize their impact byworking tomaximize theaccessandconnectivityofthedatabases.

FINDING: Someunique information in thehighquality data thatwill beobtained in several futuresurveys—particularly LSST, Euclid, andWFIRST—will be significantly enhancedby combining theiranalysisatanearly“pixel”stage,ratherthanamorehighlyreducedcatalogstage.

RECOMMENDATION:Whereitcanimproveoverallscienceproductivityandefficiency,cooperationindatabase design and data sharing is encouraged among US agencies, international agencies, andscientificcollaborations.

The considerable national investment in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope provides a capabilityuniquelywellsuitedtothetaskoffindingfaintmovingobjectsoverlargeareasofthesky.Thetelescopeandcameraaremuchlargerthancanbepracticallyflowninspace,soforsomekindsofobjectsitisthebest toolwewill have for the foreseeable future. However, achieving the congressionallymandatedgoals may require compromises in other science programs and some funding for development andoperationofadditionalcapabilitiesnotinthecurrentfundedproject.NASAhascommissioneda“Studyof LSSTNEOCapabilities” that shouldprovide technicaldataneeded for carefulplanning. ItwouldbeappropriatefortheAAACtocommentontheresultsofthatstudywhentheyareavailable.

FINDING: The most cost effective approach to discovering and mapping the orbits of earth-threatening solar system objects (“Near Earth Objects” or NEOs) is likely to include a significantcontribution from ground-based telescope facilities. Achieving the congressionally mandated goalswilllikelyrequirecooperationbetweenNSFandNASA.

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Cosmicmicrowavebackground(CMB)thirdgenerationexperimentsarereachingthesensitivitytoprobetheearliestmomentsoftheUniverse.Buildingontheexperienceofdeployingcurrentthirdgenerationexperiments, CMB scientists are planning for a future (Stage-4) ground-based CMB effort, known asCMB-S4, to improvethesensitivity toCMBB-modesbyordersofmagnitude.Theground-basedeffortwill be complementary to NASA experiments from space or balloons. The basic technology is wellproven,butsomeR&Dwillbeneededtoscaleupfromprojectscurrentlyunderdevelopmentbymorethan an order ofmagnitude in the number of active detectors. CMB-S4 iswell alignedwith theHighEnergyPhysicsAdvisoryPanel (HEPAP)ParticlePhysics Project PrioritizationPanel (P5) vision andhasthesupportofseveralDOElabs,whichhaveprovencapabilitiesofbuildinglarge-scaledetectorsystems,whicharecriticaltothesuccessofCMB-S4.

FINDING: With its history of successes funded by NASA, NSF, and DOE, CMB science crosses theboundaries of agencies. Third generation ground-based efforts and suborbital payloads are nowreachingthesensitivityforground-breakingdiscoveriesofCMBB-modes.

FINDING:Thescientificcommunitystudyingthecosmicmicrowavebackgroundhasmadesignificantprogressonaunifiedstrategy fora fourthgeneration,ground-basedsurveyof theUniverse (“CMB-S4”),ordersofmagnitudemorecapablethancurrentexperiments,withenormouspotential fornewscientific discovery. A larger role of DOE coordinated with NSF is important to realize the greatscientificpotentialofCMB-S4.

RECOMMENDATION: We encourage DOE, NSF, and the university community to continueworkingtowardaplanforafuture(Stage4)ground-basedCMBexperiment.

4)StatusandImplementationofDecadalSurveys

4.1OverviewTheAAACcharterdirectsthecommitteetoassessandadviseonthestatusoftheactivitiesofthethreefunding agencies (NSF, NASA and DOE) in relation to the recommendations made by the DecadalSurveysfromtheNRC.TheDecadalSurveysprovidecriticalguidanceforNASA/APDandNSF/AST,andalso impact NSF Physics Division (NSF/PHY) and the Office of High Energy Physics (HEP) of theDepartmentofEnergy(DOE).Themostrecentsuchsurveyreport,from2010,istitledNewWorlds,NewHorizonsinAstronomyandAstrophysics(NWNH).ItwasthefirsttoincludetheDOE.TheNWNHreportwillbesupplementedbyareportfromtheMid-DecadalReviewcommitteeconvenedbytheNRCasrequestedbytheagencies.ThereportisplannedforreleaseinMay2016.ImplementationofNWNHiscloselyrelatedtootherplanningexercises,includingtheCosmicFrontierrecommendations

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intheParticlePhysicsProjectPrioritizationPanel(P5)process(whichimpactsDOE/HEPandNSF/PHY),theNSFPortfolioReview,andNASAseniorreviews(seeSection5).HereweassesstheongoingeffortsofthethreeagenciestoimplementtherecommendationsofNWNHin the context of budgetary constraints and the complementary capabilities and goals of theinternational community. After summarizing key aspects of NWNH in Section 4.2, we provide thecontext insection4.3. InSection4.4,wesummarizeresultsfromtheNSFPortfolioReviewCommittee(PRC). In 4.5 we discuss the implementation of theNWNH recommendations and the ongoingMid-Decadalreviewin4.6.In Section 4.7 we briefly describe projects related to P5 recommendation. Finally, the summaryassessmentispresentedwithfindingsandrecommendationsinSection4.8.

4.2NWNHprioritiesandrecommendations

The NWNH report proposed a plan for the decade 2012-2021, organized around three key sciencethemes: “searchingforthefirststars,galaxies,andblackholes;seekingnearbyhabitableplanets;andadvancing understanding of the fundamental physics of the universe” (NWNH, p. 2). The NWNHCommittee aimed to address these three themeswith a comprehensive plan that also sought to laysome groundwork for the subsequent decade.NWNH recommended a program of activities on thegroundand in space, classified according to scale. The11unranked recommendations for small-scaleactivities,whichincludedseveraltargetingtechnologyandinstrumentationdevelopmentforthefuture,were divided nearly equally between space- and ground-based activities. Each of the threerecommendedmedium-scaleactivitiestiedcloselytooneofthethreesciencethemes,withtwoofthethreetargetingpreparationforpossiblelargecenterpieceactivitiesforthepost-2021decade.BelowwesummarizetheeightlargeprojectsidentifiedbyNWNHashavingthehighestpriorityforthedecade.

4.2.1 Space-basedProjects

(1)TheWide-FieldInfraredSurveyTelescope(WFIRST)—anobservatorywithaverylargefieldofviewdesigned to tackle aspects of all three NWNH science themes, by answering questions about darkenergy,exoplanets,andgalaxyevolution.

(2) Augmentation to the Explorers Program— expansion of the existing NASA program to provideopportunitiesforrapidlyrealizingnewscientificopportunities.

(3)TheLaserInterferometerSpaceAntenna(LISA)—alow-frequencygravitationalwaveobservatorytocomplementhigher-frequencyEarth-basedobservatorieslikeLIGOandprovideaccesstonewmeansforstudyingblackholesandmakingprecisiontestsofgeneralrelativity.

(4) The International X-ray Observatory (IXO)—a major new X-ray telescope for studies of the high-energyUniverse.

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4.2.2 Ground-basedProjects

(1) The LargeSynoptic SurveyTelescope (LSST)—amultipurposewide-fieldoptical telescope targetingaspects of all three NWNH science themes, with particular emphasis on probing the fundamentalnaturesofdarkenergyanddarkmatter,andsurveyingthetransientsky.

(2)TheMidscaleInnovationsProgram(MSIP)—introductionofacompetedgrantsprogramattheNSFtoaugmentsupportformid-scaleprojects,designedtoallowsignificantadvancesinscientificdiscoveryfor astronomy and astrophysics beyond the scope of the Astronomy and Astrophysics Grants (AAG)program.

(3)TheGiantSegmentedMirrorTelescope(GSMT)—alargeopticalandnear-infraredtelescopethatwillprovideaspectroscopic infraredandopticalcomplementtotheJamesWebbSpaceTelescope(JWST),theAtacamaLargeMillimeterArray(ALMA),andLSST.TwointernationalconsortialedbyUSinstitutionsare planning GSMT construction: The GiantMagellan Telescope (GMT) in Chile and the ThirtyMeterTelescope(TMT)inHawaii.

(4)AtmosphericČerenkovTelescopeArray(ACTA)—aninternationalinstrumentforhigh-energygamma-ray astrophysics, aimed at answering questions about high-energy astrophysics and the fundamentalnature of dark matter. The international Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) consortium is currentlymovingtowardconstruction.

4.2.3OtherRecommendations

NWNHmadeaseriesofadditionalrecommendationsdirectedtowardtheastronomyandastrophysicscommunity as a whole. These addressed the need for international collaboration and strategicplanning,theimportanceofscientistscommittingtoserveingovernmentalpolicypositions,thebenefitsfromtrainingyoungerpeoplebroadly,andthepressingneedtodiversifythecommunity.

NWNH highlighted the different strengths that the agencies bring to research in Astronomy andAstrophysicsastheypursuetheirmissiontopromotescientificdiscovery.Theyhaveastronghistoryofcollaboratingtomaximizetheuseofresourcesforastrophysicsandastronomy.

DOE/HEP: TheDOEHEPoffice ismission-oriented, involving several broad areas of scientific inquiry,oneofwhich, theCosmicFrontiersupportsprojectsthatoverlapwithastronomyandastrophysics.Asmentionedabove,NWNHwasthefirstdecadalsurveyto includetheDOE, inrecognitionoftheDOE’sincreasingimpactonandinterestinthefieldofcosmology.TheP5federaladvisorypanelistheprimarymechanismthattheDOEusesforreceivingandrespondingtocommunityinput;fundingallocationsaredrivenbytheP5prioritizations.

NASA/APD: TheDecadalSurveyshavehistorically recommended flagshipobservatories forNASA; thesurveypriortoNWNHrecommendedtheJWST(seeSection4.5),andNASAcommittedtodeliveringit.The complexity and enormity of the effort meant that this responsibility continued into the NWNHdecade, engendering constraints on NASA not fully accounted for at the time of theNWNH survey.Because NASA has a formal community-driven process to identify target science areas for future

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missions,theagencyhasalreadybegunconsideringoptionsformissionsinthenextdecadeasameansofpreparingfortheMid-Decadalreview,andthenextDecadalSurvey.

NSF/AST: TheNSFisdedicatedtoamerit-reviewsystemforgrantstoallowideastoemergefromthecommunity.TheAstronomyandAstrophysicsResearchGrants(AAG)programallowsforrapidprogressviasmallinvestigatorgrants;majorfacilitiesrequirelongertermplanning.ComparedtomostotherNSFdivisions, the AST budget is dominated by big facilities, even though the divestment processrecommendedbythePortfolioReviewhasbeguntoreducethefacilityshare.

4.3CurrentContext:ExtantMajorPrograms

Althoughthefocusofourreportisonthe2010AstronomyandAstrophysicsDecadalSurvey(NWNH),theAAACtakesnoteofseveral largeprojectsfrompriorsurveysthatareeitherunderconstructionorrecentlycompletedandrampingupoperations. Theseprojectsconstitute largeandongoing financialcommitmentsthatinfluencetheimplementationofNWNH.

4.3.1Ground-basedProjects

ALMA: The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) was inaugurated in March 2013.Currentoperationsareamixofearlyscienceandcommissioningactivities,asthecapabilitiesofALMAcontinue to be developed. Data from early science and from the first long baseline campaign arecurrentlybeinganalyzedandwillbemakingtheirwayintopublicationsduringthiscomingyear.Cycle3observingbeganinfall,2015,andtheCycle4callforproposalswillbeinMarch2016.

LIGO:Advanced LIGO, the ground-based gravitationalwave experiment, began installation and initialcommissioninginSummer2015andstartedscienceoperationson12September.Withinjusttwodays,on14September2015,LIGOachievedthefirstdirectdetectionofgravitationalwaves,fromamergingbinary pair of black holes of 29 and 36 solar masses. This remarkable result is a tremendousachievementforUSphysics,fortheculminationoftheeffortsoftheLIGOprojectovermanyyears,andfortheNSF,whichprovidedfundingforthisproject.

DKIST:ConstructionoftheDanielK.InouyeSolarTelescope(DKIST)isproceedingfora2019completiondate,currently fundedby theNSFMREFC line.Theprimarymirrorwascompleted inDecember2015,andtheenclosurecomponentsareonsitewithcivilconstructionnearingcompletion.Theprojectisontrack for scheduled completion in 2019. Anticipated operations form part of the NSF/AST budgetplanningprocess.

4.3.2Space-basedandAirborneProjects

JWST:TheJamesWebbSpaceTelescopewillbethemostpowerfultelescopeeverlaunchedintospace.Its four science instruments will operate in the near- andmid-infrared, where light is better able topenetrateregionsofgasanddustandiswell-suitedtothestudyofhighlyredshiftedstarsandgalaxies

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oftheearlyUniverse.Onthe4thofFebruary2016,NASAannouncedthatthefull18-segmentprimarymirrorwas completedmarkingamajormilestone for theproject. Theprimaryoptical systemwill beintegratedwiththeothertelescopecomponentsfortestingoftheobservatoryatJohnsonSpaceCenterin2016and2017.JWSTisontrackforitsplannedOctober2018launchdate.

SOFIA:TheStratosphericObservatoryforInfraredAstronomy(SOFIA)isa2.5meter(100inch)telescopemounted on a Boeing 747 that covers mid and far-infrared wavelengths, which are otherwise onlyaccessiblefromspace.Thisspectralregioncoversthepeakwavelengthsatwhichinterstellardustemitsthemost important spectral lines for cooling of the interstellarmedium. The observatory is fundedjointly byNASA and theGermanAerospace Center. SOFIA is in 5 year prime operations, and the 2ndgenerationof theHigh-resolutionAirborneWidebandCamera instrumentwill begin commissioning inspring2016.TheseniorreviewforSOFIAwillbein2018.

4.4TheNSF/ASTPortfolioReview:ImplementationofRecommendations

In itsefforts to followtherecommendationsofNWNH,NSFhashadtoconsiderandprioritizebudgetobligations tied to the support of existing facilities. To do so, NSF/AST initiated a portfolio reviewprocess that outlined a plan for divestment from past projects to enable NSF to meet the scientificprioritiesofNWNH.

TheAAACrecognizestheimportanceofadiverseinvestmentplanbytheNSFDivisionofAstronomicalSciences(NSF/AST),includingnotonlythedevelopmentofnewcapabilitiesforastronomy,butalsothesupport of the existing facilities and research grants needed to pursue the priorities of NWNH.Constrainedbudgets, increasingAAGproposalpressure, the costofoperatingexisting facilities, andagrowingnumberofobligations for starting theoperationofnew facilities in thenear futuremakes itdifficult for theNSF tomaintain a balancedportfolio or tomove forwardwith new investments. TheNWNH decadal survey anticipated this challenge and recommended (NWNH, p. 32, 173) that theNSF/ASTconveneaPortfolioReviewCommittee(PRC)in2011-2012toadviseonhowbesttorealizetheneeded balance in the portfolio. The PRC reported to NSF in August of 2012. The committee’srecommendationswereformulatedprojectingthatthefundinglevelfortheASTdivision(through2022)corresponded to 65%and50%of themoreoptimistic projections used inNWNH. The 2012PortfolioReviewCommittee (PRC) produced several recommendations in order to accomplish the goals of theNWNH Decadal Survey. These included the possible divestment of several optical and radio facilities,assumingcontinuedcommitment to the fundingof individualguest investigatorgrants,REUs,and theimplementationofaMid-ScaleInnovationsProgram(MSIP),viewedascriticaltoboththedevelopmentofthenextgenerationofinnovatorsandtotherealizationofthescientificgoalsofNWNH.

The AAAC finds that the NSF/AST division continues to make progress in responding to the PRCrecommendations, including realizing divestment or partnering of some facilities while limiting thenegativeimpactonthescientificcommunity.NSF/ASThasbeenmakingsignificanteffortstoreducethecostofoperatingexistingfacilities,minimizethecostofdecommissioningfacilities(throughengineering

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studies), and minimize the loss of science opportunities by avoiding the permanent removal of keyobservationalcapabilitiesavailabletoUSresearchers(i.e.,bytransferringtheoperationofafacilitytosomeoneelseintheUSsystem,e.g.,theKPNO2.1mtelescopebeingtransferredtoaconsortium).

NSF/AST faces significant challenges in implementing thePRC report recommendations. TheCongresshasaskedtobekeptfullyapprisedoftheprogressandanyfacilityclosuresthatarecontemplated.TofullyachievethegoalsofthePRC,itisimportanttominimizepolicyconstraintsthatwouldimpedecosteffectivereallocationofresources. Inparticular, therequirementtomaintainoperationsatbothnewandexistingobservatoriesasadditionalfacilitiescomeonlineinfutureyears,willbeextremelydifficulttoachieve.

TheNSF/ASTportfoliohasbeendifficulttobalanceasrecommendedbyNWNHgiventhedifficultiesinimplementing swiftly the Portfolio Review divestments and the upcoming operations cost of newfacilities. Taken together, the AAAC is concerned that the growing funding requirements alreadythreatens the highest priority projects of NWNH, including the midscale funding opportunities, andindividualresearchgrantsthataresocriticaltorealizingthegoalsofNWNH.

BelowwesummarizethestatusondivestmentandimplementationofthePRCrecommendations.TheNSF/AST (with the help of a contractor) is currently concluding engineering studies and baselineenvironmental surveys for anumberof telescopesandobservatories,work that is required to informanydecisionregardingdivestment.NSF’sgoalistounderstandthefeasibilityofalternativesincluding:(1) new partnership agreements, (2) conversion to a new mission, including scope reductions (3),mothballingoffacilitiesor(4)decommissioning.

StatusofSpecificFacilitiesImpactedbyPRCRecommendations:

NOAO/KPNO 2.1m telescope: As the result of a call for proposals, NSF selected a Caltech-ledconsortiumthatdeployedaroboticallyoperatedautonomouslaseradaptiveoptics(AO)system(Robo-AO)inNovember2015.Robo-AOhastakenoveroperationsforFY2016-2018.NSFhasstartedastudyofthefeasibilityoffutureoptionsfollowingtheRobo-AOproject.

WIYN telescope: The 40% NSF/NOAO open community time on WIYN will be replaced by a newlyformed NASA-NSF partnership that will provide the exoplanet community with telescope access,includinganewExtremePrecisionDopplerSpectrometersupportedbyNASA.AnNSF/NASAMOUisinplace. The funding for theoperationsof the facility in supportof thispartnership continues to comefromNSF. Asaresult,whilethisscientificpartnershipenables importantNWNHsupportedscience, itdoesnot result in a reduction in theNSF’s cost of operating facilities anddoesnot contribute to theefforttorealizeareductioninthecostofoperatingexistingfacilities.ThenewinitiativecontributestotheNWNH priority of high-precision radial velocity surveys of nearby stars in order to validate andcharacterizeexoplanetcandidates.

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NOAO/KPNO Mayall 4m telescope: Planning continues for the installation of the Dark EnergySpectroscopic Instrument (DESI) on theMayall 4m telescope in 2018.When installed, the instrumentandwide-fieldofviewMayall4mtelescopewillconductasurvey,withtelescopeoperationsandsurveybeing fundedbyDOE.Someopencommunityaccess inbright timeor for someof the fibers isunderdiscussion.Thedatafromthesurveywillbemadepublic.TheprogramwilladdressP5andNWNHhighlyrankedscienceprograms.

Green Bank Telescope: Future options for the Green Bank Telescope are currently under feasibilitystudyandvariouspartnershavebegunpartialfundingofoperations.

SOAR: theSouthernAstrophysicalResearchTelescope (SOAR)agreementexpires in2018andtheNSFwillreassessatthattimeitsparticipationinSOARinviewofitspossibleroleintheLSSTera.

VLBA:FutureoptionsfortheVeryLongBaselineArray(VLBA)arecurrentlyunderfeasibilitystudyandvarious partners have begun partial funding of continuing operations. The VLBA project will beseparatedfromNRAOinFY15.

McMath-Pierce Solar telescope (Kitt Peak) andDunn Solar Telescope (Sacremento Peak): Operatingpartnersarestillbeingsought,andfutureoptionsforbotharecurrentlyunderfeasibilitystudy.

GONG/SOLIS: The SynopticOptical Long-term Investigationsof the Sun (SOLIS)wasmovedoff KPNO,andtheGlobalOscillationNetworkGroup(GONG)isunderrefurbishment. AnMOUwiththeNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)iscurrentlyindraftform,andNOAAispartlyfundingspaceweatheroperationswithGONG.

Arecibo:FutureoptionsfortheAreciboObservatoryinPuertoRicoarecurrentlyunderfeasibilitystudy.Responseswere received on January 15, 2016 to a Dear Colleague letter seeking viable concepts forfutureoperations.NSFevaluationoftheseresponsesisunderway.TheNSFDivisionofAtmosphericandGeospace Sciences (in the Directorate for Geosciences), which partners with NSF/AST and the NASAPlanetary Sciences Division in funding Arecibo, expects to receive the report of their own portfolioreviewbeforesummer2016.

University Radio Observatories: NSF designated funding for these facilities was eliminated, but theopportunity to compete for continued funding was allowed through MSIP. The Combined Array forResearch inMillimeterAstronomy(CARMA)wasrecentlydecommissionedandthesitereturnedto itsoriginalstate.

Our committee notes that divestments come with cost to the user community, especially thosescientists working at institutions without their own telescope access. Telescopes proposed fordivestmentarestillproducingexcellentscienceasoutlinedintheNWNHsurveyandmanyofferuniquescientific capabilities. To mitigate these losses, NSF has actively explored partnerships, interagencycooperation and private resources so that the US community can maintain some access to thesefacilitiesandthecapabilitiestheyprovide.Ofparticularnote,thenewpartnershipbetweenNSF,NASAand universities have enabled a new program at the WIYN telescope of NWNH supported science.

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Partnership of NSF/AST and DOE Cosmic Frontier (CF) on the DESI project has made it possible torepurposetheMayalltelescopetoserveasadedicatedspectroscopicsurveyinstrumentfordarkenergyscienceprioritizedbyNWNH.

FINDING:TheNSFDivisionofAstronomicalScienceshasdoneacommendablejoboffindingcreativesolutions to respond to the recommendationsmadeby thePortfolioReviewCommittee (PRC)whilelimitingpermanentshutdownofanumberoffacilities.TheseactionsservetoreducetheamounttheNSF/ASTisspendingontheoperatingbudgetsoflegacyfacilitiesandthusmoveclosertothedesiredbalanceintheportfoliorecommendedbythePRC.

FINDING: Divestments recommendedby thePortfolioReviewareproceeding, butat a slowerpacethananticipatedduetothecomplexitiesofdecommissioningandtheongoingsearchesforoperatingpartners.

FINDING:ThelossofopenaccessfacilitiesresultsinacosttotheUSusercommunities,intermsoflossofopennightsandaccesstoavarietyofinstruments.

RECOMMENDATION: Strong efforts by NSF for facility divestment should continue as fast as ispractical.Effortstoexplorepartnerships,interagencycooperationandprivateresourcestomaintainsome access to facilities for the US community that may mitigate the loss of open access shouldcontinue.TransferringthecostofoperatingafacilityoutsideoftheNSF/ASTbudget ispreferabletocompletelossofacapabilityfromthesuiteofcapabilitiesusedbyUSresearchers.

4.5ImplementationofNWNHRecommendations

BudgetrealitieshavebeensignificantlyharsherthananticipatedinNWNH,andhavefallenwellbeloweventhemostconservativebudgetscenariosconsideredthere.ForNSF,theactualASTFY2016budgetisover$100M,ornearly40%,lowerthanassumedbyNWNH.ForP5planning,thebudgetrealitiesarebetweenthelowestandmiddlescenarios.

Withinthiscontext,theAAACfindsthatNASA,NSFandDOEareallmakinggoodeffortstoaddressmostof the underlying scientific priorities even though they are not able to fully fund some of therecommended projects. They have accomplished this by discontinuing lower-priority programs, byidentifying areas where international collaboration might help to achieve the same goals (e.g.,participation in the ESA led LISA pathfindermission and the L2 Advanced Telescope for High EnergyAstrophysics (ATHENA) X-ray satellite) by mid-scale programs that might be able to support initialstudies or technology development for future large projects, or where a combination of mid-scalesupport and international participationmay allow the US to continue to play a leadership role (e.g.,DESI,EventHorizonTelescope,etc.).

Specifically,theagencieshavemadeprogressinaddressingtheNWNHprioritiesforthehighestprioritylargeprojectsasdescribed insections4.5.1and4.5.2,below. Otherdetailsmayalsobe found in the

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NSF’sMarch2015DearColleagueLetterii and theDecember2014NASAAstrophysics ImplementationPlaniiiUpdate.

4.5.1Space-basedProjects

WFIRST:TheWide-FieldInfraredSurveyTelescope(WFIRST)wasthehighestprioritylargespacemissionin the NWNH report. WFIRST is a NASA observatory designed to perform wide-field imaging andspectroscopicsurveysofthenearinfrared(NIR)sky.ThecurrentAstrophysicsFocusedTelescopeAssets(AFTA)designmakesuseofanexisting2.4mtelescopedesignedforspace.WFIRSTwillsettleessentialquestionsinexoplanet,darkenergy,andgalaxyevolutionresearch.ThefinalWFIRSTScienceDefinitionTeamreportwasreleasedinMarch2015iv.Theprojecthasjustenteredtheformulationstage(PhaseA),inFebruary2016.

The Explorer Program: The Explorer Program provides frequent flight opportunities for innovative,streamlined space investigations within the astrophysics and heliophysics science areas. The FY15budget request supports a growing Astrophysics Explorer program, with continued development ofcurrentmissionssuchasthemissionsofopportunity(MOO)NeutronstarInteriorCompositionExploreR(NICER)currentlyplannedforlaunchinearly2017andthelargerTransitingExoplanetSurveySatellite(TESS)withalaunchcurrentlyplannedforAugust2017.ArecentSmallExplores(SMEX)announcementofopportunitycall ledtoconceptstudiedoffivecandidateSMEXandMOOs.AMedium-classExplorer(MIDEX)MissionofOpportunitycallisplannedfor2016.

LISA:TheLaser InterferometerSpaceAntenna isaspace-basedgravitationalwaveobservatoryrankedas a high priority for a strategic mission in NWNH. Budget constraints have slowed the pace oftechnology investment on the US side. A technologymission, LISA Pathfinder, led by ESAwith NASApartnershipwassuccessfullylaunchedonDecember3,2015andbeganscienceoperationsinFebruary2016.NASAplanstopartnerwithESAonitsL3gravitationalwaveobservatorymission,withatentativelaunchdateof2034.Thestrengthof theUSgravitationalwavecommunityhasgrownconsiderably inrecentyears,drivenbytheirleadershipinLIGOresultingintherecentdiscoveryofgravitationalwavesas the collaboration ramps up to full operations of advanced LIGO. Interagency cooperation andcreativity are vital in parlaying the leading role of the US in the ground-basedwork into substantiveparticipationinaspace-basedgravitationalwaveobservatory.

IXO:The InternationalX-rayObservatory(IXO) isanext-generationX-rayobservatoryalsorankedasahigh priority in NWNH. The constrained NASA budget limited planning for an international IXOobservatory. In 2014, ESA selected a re-scoped X-ray mission, called Advanced Telescope for HighEnergy Astrophysics (ATHENA), with launch planned in 2028. NASA is working with ESA to define apossibleNASAcontribution.

4.5.2Ground-basedProjects

LSST:TheLargeSynopticSurveyTelescopeisthehighestpriorityNWNHground-basedprojectandwasalso highly ranked by the P5 report for the DOE/HEP Cosmic Frontier. LSST has nowmoved into theconstructionphase.TheDOEandNSFhavea jointoversightgroup,andregularlymeetwithOSTPand

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OMB. The NSF has approved LSST construction under Major Research Equipment and FacilitiesConstruction (MREFC) funding,andformalauthorizationwasmadeonAugust1,2014.Themonolithicprimary mirror with integrated tertiary was completed with early private funds. DOE has approvedfundingfortheLSSTcamerafabrication;theSLACcamerateamsuccessfullypassedreviewoftheirfullfabricationstart(CD-3,criticaldecision3,review)inAugust2015.

NSFMid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP): The AAAC appreciates the effortsmade by NSF/AST toadvancethenewMSIPprogram.ThisprogramreplacestheTelescopeSystemsInstrumentationProgram(TSIP),UniversityRadioObservatories(URO),andothermid-scaleprograms.ThefirstMSIPsolicitationinFY2013 was for FY2014-2015 funds. Three full awards were made (the Zwicky Transient Facility,AdvancedAtacamaCosmologyTelescopePolarimeter,ACTPol,andtheEventHorizonTelescope),aswellasonedevelopmentawardfor2014(HydrogenEpochofReionizationArray,HERA).In2015,additionalawards were given for the Simons/POLARBEAR array and NANOGrav (co-funding a Physics FrontiersCenter).Thedeadlinefor fullproposals tothemostrecentMSIPsolicitationhas justpassed(February2016).

GSMT:Duetobudgetrestrictions,NSFhasnotbeenabletoenterintoadirectpartnershipwithaGiantSegmentedMirrorTelescope (GSMT), as recommendedbyNWNH. Two international consortia ledbyUS institutionsmoving toward construction of the GiantMagellan Telescope (GMT) in Chile and theThirtyMeterTelescope(TMT)inHawaii.

CTA: U.S and international scientists are partnering on a concept for a single large ground-basedgamma-rayobservatory,theCherenkovTelescopeArray(CTA). NWNH rankedamajorpartnershiponCTA4th for largeground-basedprojectspriorities.P5recommended investment inCTA“aspartof thesmall projects portfolio if the critical NSF Astronomy funding can be obtained.”v Due to budgetconstraints, the DOE and NSF have issued a joint statement about the difficulty in funding the CTAprojectatthelevelrecommendedinNWNH.USparticipationinCTAwillhaveasignificantimpactinthescience and continued US leadership in this important field even at lower funding levels as possiblyavailablethroughcompetedNSF/ASTMSIPandNSF/PHYMidscaleprograms.

4.6TheMid-DecadalReview

InNovember2014thethreeagenciesformallyrequestedamid-decadalreviewtoevaluateprogressontheNWNHgoals,withoutre-prioritizingobjectives.Thisreview,inconcertwiththeDecadalsurveys,willalsosatisfytheNASAAuthorizationActof2005,whichrequiresanassessmentoftheScienceDivision’sprogresseveryfiveyears.

TheMid-DecadalReviewCommitteeconsistsoffourteenscientists,andischairedbyJacquelineHewitt.FourmeetingstookplaceduringtheperiodOctober2015throughFebruary2016,andthereportwillbepublishedinMay2016.

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4.6.1TheMid-DecadalReviewCharge

Themid-decadalstatementoftaskisasfollows.

TheNationalResearchCouncil shall conveneanadhoccommittee to reviewthe responsesofNASA'sAstrophysics program,NSF'sAstronomyprogram, andDOE's Cosmic Frontiers program (hereafter theAgencies'programs)topreviousNRCadvice,primarilythe2010NRCdecadalsurvey,NewWorlds,NewHorizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (NWNH). In the context of funding circumstances that aresubstantiallybelowthoseassumedinNWNH,thecommittee'sreviewwillincludethefollowingtasks:

1. Describe themost significant scientific discoveries, technical advances, and relevant programmaticchangesinastronomyandastrophysicsovertheyearssincethepublicationofthedecadalsurvey;

2.Assesshowwell theAgencies'programsaddress thestrategies,goals,andprioritiesoutlined in the2010decadalsurveyandotherrelevantNRCreports;

3.Assesstheprogresstowardrealizingthesestrategies,goals,andpriorities;and

4. In the context of strategic advice provided for the Agencies' programs by Federal AdvisoryCommittees, and in the context of mid-decade contingencies described in the decadal survey,recommendanyactionsthatcouldbetakentomaximizethesciencereturnoftheAgencies'programs.

Thereviewshouldnot revisitoralter thescientificprioritiesormissionrecommendationsprovided inthe decadal survey and related NRC reports but may provide guidance on implementation of therecommended science and activities portfolio and on other potential activities in preparation for thenextdecadalsurvey.

4.7CoordinationwithP5recommendationsDOE’sOfficeofHigh-Energyphysics(HEP)organizesitsscientificprogramintoseveralbroadcategories,oneofwhichistheCosmicFrontier.DOEHEPreceivesprogrammaticadvicefromtwoFACAcommittees,theAAACandtheHighEnergyPhysicsAdvisoryPanel(HEPAP).Allthreefrontiersareunderthepurviewof HEPAP, but only the CF projects are prioritized in NWNH and are assessed by the AAAC. InimplementingtheCosmicFrontierprogram,DOEisguidedbytheNWNHdecadalsurveypriorities,buttakes its primary advice on project prioritization from the Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel(P5)subpanelofHEPAP.TheP5reportgroupsCosmicFrontieropportunitiesintotwomainareas:identifyingthenatureandnewphysics behind dark matter (DM), and understanding cosmic acceleration (both the dark energyresponsible for the accelerating expansion of the Universe and inflation that drove the dramaticexpansioninthefirstfractionofasecondfollowingthebigbang).Fordarkenergy(DE),apriorityistomeasuretheexpansionhistoryoftheUniverseatrelativelyrecenttimesthroughmeasurementsoftheformation history of large-scale structure and measurements of cosmic distances through standardcandleslikesupernovaeexplosions.Thesemeasurementsareaccomplishedthroughwide-fieldimaging

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surveysandspectroscopicsurveys. Improvedunderstandingof inflationwillbeaccomplishedthroughlarge-scale structure measurements of primordial perturbations and through measurements of CMBpolarization. DOE works closely with NSF and NASA to identify for DOE support the portion ofcollaborativeprojectsthatmakesoptimaluseofDOE’sexpertiseandinfrastructure.

DOE has started Cosmic Visions (CV) groups to provide a conduit between the agency and the HEPcommunity on planning and status of theDOE/CF science program, the CMBCV, DE CV, andDMCVgroups.Motivatedbytheimportanceoftheefforttounderstanddarkenergy,P5gavetheLSSTtoppriority inCF.Fordarkmatter, thereportrecommendedproceedingtoageneration-2(G2)suiteofexperimentsand emphasized the complementarity of direct detection (the G2 program) and indirect detection(throughCTA,andacceleratorsearches).P5recommendedthattheDOEinvestinCTAifthecriticalNSFAstronomy funding can be obtained, as the 4th ground-based priority in NWNH. P5 recommendedsupport for the DESI project, a wide-field spectroscopic instrument and survey, in all but the lowestfuturebudgetscenarios.TheP5reportemphasizedtheimportanceofaDOEroleinfutureexperimentsaimed atmeasuring detailed properties of the cosmicmicrowave background (CMB), advocating thatwork toward thenextgenerationground-basedCMBexperiment shouldbecomepartof theplanningportfolio.Below we summarize the status of P5 recommendations in Astronomy and Astrophysics andinvolvementinotherinteragencyprojectswithasubstantialDOE/CFcomponent.LSST:Thehighestpriorityground-basedprojectinNWNHisalsothehighestpriorityfortheCFinP5.LSSThasmovedintotheconstructionphaseandisdiscussedin4.5.2.HEPisresponsibleforthe3billionpixelcamera,contributionstotheoperationsphaseandissupportingaDarkEnergyScienceCollaborationtodelivercoordinated,precisionscienceresults.DES:TheDarkEnergySurvey(DES)isaninternationalprojectjointlyfundedbyDOE,NSF,universities,and international agencies to conduct a large imaging survey to probe dark energy and the origin ofcosmicacceleration.TheDOE is responsible for theDarkEnergyCamera (DECam),a3-square-degree,570-megapixelCCDcamera,which ismountedon theBlanco4-meter telescopeatCerroTololo Inter-AmericanObservatory(CTIO)operatedbyNOAO(NSF).Thesurveydataon300milliongalaxies,millionsofstars,andtensofthousandsoftransientsaddressesabroadrangeofastrophysicsinadditiontodarkenergyandprovidesscientificguidancetostrategicdevelopmentissuesforthelargerLSSTproject.DESreleaseditsfirstscienceresultsthispastyearandhascompleteditsthirdobservingseason.DESI:TheDark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is a new spectrograph to be installed in 2018ontotheMayall4-mtelescopeatKPNOoperatedbyNOAO(NSF).In2014,P5encouragedsupportforDESIaspartofabroad-baseddarkenergyprogram.DESIwillprovideathree-dimensionalmapofdistantgalaxiesandquasarsobtainedthroughspectroscopythatiscomplementarytotheLSSTimagingsurvey.DESI is an international project led by DOE/HEP, with contributions from NSF, universities, private

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foundations,andinternationalagencies.DOEandNSFsignedaMOAin2014toagreeonarampupofDOEsupport,andarampdownofNSFsupportfortheMayalltelescopeoperationsbetweenFY16-FY18.In FY19andbeyond,DOEplans to fully support theMayall telescopeoperations for thedarkenergy.CongressionalappropriationsforFY15includedDESIaslineitemsforanMajorItemofEquipment(MIE),allowing them to start fabrication of long-lead components this year. DOE/HEP approved the projectbaseline(CD-2)inSeptember2015.TheDOECD-3fullfabricationreviewwilltakeplaceinMay2016.DarkMatter:NWNHidentifiedunderstandingthenatureofdarkmatterasasciencefrontierquestionforadvancingknowledge,underscoringtheneedforbothdirectdetectionandindirectdetection.P5agreed,stressingdirectdetectionofdarkmatterintheCosmicFrontier.ThreeG2(generation2)directdetectiondarkmatterexperimentswereselectedinJune2014,supportedbyDOECosmicFrontierandNSF/PHYParticleAstrophysics,aswellasinternationalandprivatecontributions.Twoexperiments,SuperCryogenicDarkMatterSearch(CDMS)andLUX-Zeplin(LZ)searchforweaklyinteractingmassiveparticles(WIMPs),andtheAxionDarkMattereXperiment(ADMX)issensitivetoaxions.CongressionalappropriationsforFY15includedLZandSuperCDMSaslineitemsforanMIE,allowingthemtostartfabricationoflong-leadcomponentsthisyear.ADMX,asasmallerprojectbelowtheMIEthreshold,isalsomovingforward.CosmicMicrowaveBackground:Participation inCMBscience throughthedevelopmentofacoherentground-based Stage-4 CMB project (CMB-S4) in the next decade has been endorsed by P5. All threeagencieshavealonghistoryinsupportingCMBresearch.DOE'sexpertisewithlarge-scalefabricationofscience-gradedetectors,withmassivedatasets,andwithlarge,effective,andproductivecollaborationsof scientistsworkswellwith theexpertiseand infrastructureofNSFandNASA.NWNH supported thedevelopmentofCMBresearchandinteragencycoordinationwillbeimportantforasuccessful(CMB-S4)implementationplan.

4.8SummaryAssessmentofAgencyResponsetoDecadalSurveys

The long-termassessmentof agency response toNWNHwill begivenby themid-decadal surveyandfuturedecadalsurveys.InthisreporttheAAACidentifiesthecurrentstepsthathavebeenmadetowardthe priorities set forth in NWNH, and sets this progress in the context of the changing budgetenvironmentinthesixyearssincetheNWNHpublication.The2010decadalsurveywaspredicatedonbudgetsforecastof2009.InthecaseoftheNSF,theseforecastsweresignificantlyoveroptimistic,witha40% overestimate of the current AST budget. The agencies have done an excellent job of trying toachievetheprioritiesofthedecadalreviewsinthefaceofconstrainedbudgetrealities.

The AAAC commends the NSF for moving LSST, the top ground-based priority in NWNH, into theconstructionphase inAugust2014.There isaproductiveandeffectivepartnershipbetweentheDOE,whichisfundingthecameraonLSST,andNSFintheconstructionandoperationsofthistelescope.NSFhas also initiated the MSIP program, another high priority of NWNH. While NSF/AST is stronglysupporting theMSIP program, and has discontinued some existing programs to fund it, the program

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budgetislimitedandishighlyoversubscribed.NWNHplannedfor$40M/yrfundingforMSIP,toallowfor the realization of two or three projects at medium scale. However, at the currently available$18M/yrforMSIP,itisnotclearthatthepurposeforwhichtheMSIPprogramhadbeenenvisionedbyNWNHcanbeachieved.Moreover,itwouldnothavebeenpossibletosupporteventhisreducedMSIPprogram if AST were funding some other NWNH recommendations (such as the Cerro ChajnantorAtacamaTelescopeCCAT,theonlymedium-scaleground-basedrecommendation,andanincreaseinthebaseprogram)atthistime.

NASA hasmovedWFIRST into the formulation phase (new start) in February, 2016. Thismission haschangedsomewhatinconceptsincethewritingofNWNH,withtheacquisitionoftheAFTAtelescopesandtheadditionofacoronagraph.ItisencouragingthatNASAhasbeenabletoadapttotheavailabilityof the AFTA telescopes, proceed with mission concept development, and assemble the formulationscienceteamstoenablethestartofformulationforthishighestrankedlargespaceprojectinNWNHbymid-decade. Cost containment should be closely monitored for this top priority mission in order tomaintainbalanceintheNASAprogram.

Astronomyandastrophysics isan increasingly internationalendeavor,withprojectbudgetsreachingalevel such thatduplicationofeffort isnotpossible; international cooperationcanbe thekeyelementthatallowsUSagenciestoachievemoreofthesciencegoalsofthecommunity.IncaseswheretheUScannottakealeadingroleduetobudgetconstraints,participationininternationalprojectscanprovidea mechanism for furnishing continuity of scientific communities in the US and for maintaining keyinfrastructure needed to keep the US competitive in the coming decades. Together with privatepartnerships,theseinternationalpartnershipswiththeUSagenciesshouldadheretothePrinciplesforAccess to Large Federally Funded Astrophysics Projects and Facilities1 in order to ensure that the USscientificcommunityisbestserved.FINDING:TheagenciesareworkingtogethertoensurethatthehighestprioritiesofNWNH,WFIRSTand LSST, aremoving forward.WFIRST has recently successfullymoved into the formulation phaseunder the guidance of NASA, and LSST is well into the construction phase, with the camera underconstructionunderDOEsupportandfacilityconstructionintheMREFClineatNSFledbyAST.

FINDING: The NSFMSIP program is funded at a level well below that envisioned in NWNH, but isbecomingtheonlymechanismavailable for fundingthehighpriorityactivitiesadvocated inNWNH.NSF/AST is fundingMSIPat thehighest levelcommensuratewithprogrambalance.Theprogram issupportinga largernumberofprojectswitha lowerbudgetandnotabletosupportthehighercostprojectsasenvisionedbyNWNH.

FINDING:BudgetaryconstraintshavenotallowedprogressonrecommendationsforaUSpartnershipinanoptical/infraredGiantSegmentedMirrorTelescope(GSMT).

FINDING: Budgetary constraints have not allowed progress on amajor new X-ray telescope (IXO).NASA isworkingtowardsUSparticipation in theESAATHENAprojectproviding future resources fortheUSastronomyandastrophysics.

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FINDING: The international CTA consortium is moving forward to build the CTA observatory. USparticipation at a more modest level than envisioned by NWNH would still enable US access andleadershiproles.USfundingforCTAmaybeattainablethroughcompetedmid-scalefundingsuchastheMSIPprograminNSF/ASTandmid-scaleprogramofNSF/PHY.FINDING: Gravitationalwaveastrophysics isnowareality.Thisexcitingnewfield,atthefrontierofphysics and astrophysics, will benefit greatly from cooperation among agencies as it continues todevelopandgeneratenewscienceareasinitswake.

RECOMMENDATION: the AAAC encourages NASA to continue working toward a plan to develop aspace-basedgravitationalwaveobservatoryasenvisionedbyNWNH,throughparticipationintheESAL3gravitationalwaveeffort.

RECOMMENDATION: The agencies should continue to pursue international partnerships in order tofurtheraccomplish thegoalsofNWNH.TheAAAC’s“Principles forAccess toLargeFederallyFundedAstrophysicsProjectsandFacilities”shouldguidetheprocess.

5)BudgetSummaryandImpact

TheoveralldiscretionaryspendinglevelinFY17wassetinthebipartisanbudgetagreementinOctoberof last year. That agreement raised the statutory budget caps in both FY16 and 17 and enabled afavorable treatment of astronomy and astrophysics programs in NSF, NASA, and DOE in the finalomnibusappropriationsbill(PL114-113).

ThePresident’sbudgetrequestthisyearproposestoaddtothistoplinediscretionaryspendinglimitbyenacting a broad range of mandatory spending measures, primarily aimed at increasing Federalinvestment in university grants (DOE), and research and development in FY17. Astronomy andastrophysicsfundinglinesareincludedinthisoverallbudgetstrategy.

Despite the generally favorable treatment of these programs in the budget request, it is clear thatstrong political and jurisdictional opposition to the concept of mandatory spending on research willaffecttheoutcome.Agencyrepresentativeshavestressedthatthechoiceinfundingmechanismdoesnot relate to the relative importance of the affected programs, and that full programmatic spendingauthorityisneeded,whetherthroughdirectappropriationsorsomeothermechanism.

The AAAC learned of the final outcome of the FY16 appropriations process and the FY17 budgetproposalatthetimeoftheFY17requestonFebruary9.Thefollowingtablessummarizetheprogramsof interest. FY17columnsconsistofdiscretionaryspending,mandatoryspending,and total spending.EachprogramincludesselectedsubprogramareasdiscussedbytheAAAC.

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NASA

Program FY15 FY16 FY17 Disc FY17 Man FY17 Tot NASA Astrophysicsvi $730.7 $731.0 $671.5 $85.0 $756.5

WFIRST vii $50.0 $90.0 $14.0 $76.0 $90.0 SOFIA $70.0 $85.2 $83.8 $0 $83.8 HST $98.6 $98.3 $97.3 $0 $97.3 Physics Cosmos $104.1 TBD $88.1 $6.0 $94.1viii Research ix $201.7 TBD $223.1 $3.0 $226.1 JWST $645.4 $620.0 $569.4 $0 $569.4 Total $1375.4 $1351.0 $1240.9 $85.0 $1325.9

For the purposes of theAAAC, the budget forNASAAstrophysics and JWST are considered together.Together,therequest is$1240.9millionindiscretionaryfunding,and$1325.9millionintotalprogramfunding including proposed mandatory spending. For discretionary spending, this represents an 8%reduction below FY16 levels. Including the proposed mandatory spending, this represents a 1.9%decrease.

ItisimportanttonotethattheprojectedfundinglevelforFY17includedintheFY16requestwas$1296million.Thusproposedprogramlevelincludingmandatoryspendingwouldexceedthis,thedifferencebeingtheadditionalamountaddedinFY17forWFIRST.

A key issue discussed by the AAAC has been the need for the Astrophysics Division to utilize thedeclining budget requirements for JWST and invest those funds in new mission concepts such asWFIRST. ThistransitionwillcontinuetobeontrackwiththeFY17request,butwouldbesubstantiallybetterifthefullrequestof$756.5millionwasachieved.

Another key issue brought to the attention of AAAC was the apparent “pinch point” in theWFIRSTfundingcurvethatwouldhaveoccurredinFY17withoutanadditiontothenotionalamountprojectedintheFY16budget.TheFY17requestappearstoaddressthisconcernifthefull$90millionmaterializes.Thiswouldmaintainanoption foraWFIRST launchdate in themid-2020stimeframeandreducetheoverallmissioncost.Scientifically,thiswouldallowthegreatopportunityofanoverlapofWFIRSTwithJWST operations,whichwill launch in 2018, and keep pacewith EUCLID, nowprojected to launch in2020.

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NSF

Program FY15 FY16 FY17 Disc FY17 Man FY17 Tot R&RA AST $245.2 $246.7 $247.7 $14.9 $262.6 Research $67.7 $63.3 $58.3 $14.9 $73.2 Education $5.5 $6.5 $6.0 $0 $6.0 Facilities $148.5 $148.2 $155.2 $0 $155.2 MSIP $13.0 $19.3 $18.0 $0 $18.0 Res. Resour. $10.7 $10.5 $10.3 $0 $10.3 MREFC $144.8 $200.3 $193.1 $0 $193.1 DKIST $25.1 $20.0 $20.0 $0 $20.0 LSST $79.6 $99.7 $67.1 $0 $67.1

TheNSFAstronomicalSciencesbudgetwould increaseby6.4%, in linewithotherdivisionswithin theDirectorateforMathematicalandPhysicalSciences.However,nearly$15millionofthisisproposedasmandatory spending in the Research line. This is intended to support core activities, with specialemphasisoninvestigatorsintheearlypartsoftheircareers.

TheAAACwelcomestheoverallemphasisonastronomywithintheNSFbudgetandthespecialattentionpaid to the grants program. However, the uncertainty associatedwith the enactment ofmandatoryfundingwouldplacethegrantsprograminjeopardy.

The AAAC has expressed strong concern over the declining success rate for grant proposals. Thereductionofnearly8%ingrantsfunding(theprimaryelementoftheResearchlineoftheabovebudget)that would occur if the funding identified for mandatory spending does not materialize would havedeleteriouseffectsonthecommunity.

Itshouldbenotedthattheresearchgrantstofacilitiesratioincreasesfrom.45to.47fromFY15to17ifthefullamountforresearchgrants isprovided,reflectingtheprogresstodateontheoverallPortfolioReviewimplementation.

Astronomyrelatedconstructionprogramsremainontrackwithproposedfundingconsistentwiththeirrespectiveprogramplans.

TheAAACalsoheardfromtheNSFDivisionofPhysics(PHY).Whilethisreportwillnotcoverthebudgetindetail, this is emergingas another valuable avenue for interagency collaboration in astronomyandastrophysics. Specifically, PHY funds the operations of Advanced LIGO, which has made the mostground-breakingastrophysicaldiscoveryoftheyear,aswellastheICECUBEneutrinoobservatory,andresearchprogramsinparticleastrophysicsandgravitationalphysics.

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DOE

Program FY15 FY16 FY17 Disc FY17 Man FY17 Tot Science $5068.7 $5350.2 $5572.1 $100 $5672.1 High Energy Phys $766.0 $795.0 $817.9 TBD TBD Cosmic Frontier $106.9 $130.6 $130.1 TBD TBD LSST $35.0 $40.8 $45.0 $0 $45.0 DESI $3.9 $10.3 $10.0 $0 $10.0 LZ $3.1 $10.5 $10.5 $0 $10.5 SuperCDMS-SNOlab

$2.3 $2.5 $4.0 $0 $4.0

OverallfundingfortheOfficeofSciencewouldincreaseby4-6%intheFY17requestwith$100millionproposedasmandatoryfundingforUniversityGrants. Modest increasesinHighEnergyPhysicswouldappear tomaintain a fundingprofilewell above “ScenarioB”of theP5 report, and allowing thenewinitiatives suchas theDESI, LUX-ZEPLIN,andSuperCDMS-SNOlab tobemaintainedaspartof theHEPportfolio.

FINDING:SpendingforastronomyandastrophysicsresearchcontinuestolagtheoptimisticscenariosincludedinNWNH.Lackofaconsistentfundingstreamputssomeoftheagencyprogramsatriskanddoesnotsupportthelongtermplanningneededtoexecutethedecadalsurveyplan.

RECOMMENDATION: WeurgethatthefullprogrammaticfundingrequiredbythethreeagenciestoexecutetheirFY2017plans,asdescribedintheirbudgetrequests,beprovided.

6)CompetedGrantsfallingsuccessrates

6.1Overview

Over the last decade, budget pressures and a rise in the number of astronomy and astrophysicsproposals submitted to DOE, NASA, andNSF have led to a steep decline in the fraction of proposalsbeingfunded,andtoadramaticallylargerworkloadonproposers,reviewers,andtheagencies.

NWNH stressed the importanceofachievingbalancebetween fundingconstructionandoperationsofnewworld-leadingobservatoriesandmaintainingahealthycoreprogramofPI-ledresearch.However,over the last decade proposal success rates in Astronomy and Astrophysics at NSF and NASA havedroppedsignificantly.

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Asdiscussedintheattachedreport,CompetedGrantSuccessRatesinUSAstronomyandAstrophysics,thedeclineinsuccessratesisnottheresultofadeclineinproposalmerit,changingdemographicsoranincreaseintheaveragefundingrequestperproposal(beyondinflation).Ratherthisisaconsequenceofflatordecliningbudgetsforindividualinvestigatorgrants,moreinvestigators,andalargerproportionofmultiple submissionsand resubmissionofproposals. The increase in thenumberofproposalsputsaburden both on the agencies and on the community in preparing the proposals and then refereeingthem.

Thenation'sinvestmentinmissionsandstate-of-the-artfacilitiesispredicatedonthebeliefthatthesefacilitieswillenablescientiststoproduceworld-leadingsciencewiththem.Thisassumptionisincorrectif support for the investigators decreases too significantly. Worse, severe pressure on the grantsprogramcoulddissuadenewresearcherspursuingoriginalandpotentiallytransformativeideas.Intheabsenceofbudgetincreasestheonlyoptionsopentotheagenciesareprocesschanges.

6.2Decliningsuccessratesforproposals

TheportfolioofcompetedgrantsfortheUSastronomyandastrophysicscommunityiscomplex,agencydependent, and principally supported by NASA/ADP and NSF/AST. A productive increase ininterdisciplinary interagency collaboration, notably with NSF/PHY and DOE/HEP, has helped tostrengthensomeareasoftheprogramrecommendedbyNWNH. However,NASAandDOEarelargelymission or project oriented agencies, so NSF plays a special role in support of core science.Unfortunately, NSF's research budget devoted to individual investigator grants has not grownsignificantlyandthusitsfundingratehasdropped.WeexpectevenfurthertensionsasfacilitiessuchasDKISTandLSSTtakeanincreasingshareoftheNSFASTbudget.

NWNH states: “A successful federal research program must also be balanced. There is a trade-offbetween investing in the development and construction of ambitious new telescopes and supportingbroad-ranging observational and theoretical research that optimizes the return from operatingfacilities.”(NWNH,p.15)

Duetotheslower-than-anticipateddivestmentofresourcesatNSF,andpressuresatNASAandDOE,itischallengingtosupportthebalancedprogramenvisionedbyNWNHinflatfundingscenarios.Withafixedbudget,thenumberofindividualinvestigatorawardsislimitedbyexistingorproposedcommitmentstospace-basedmissions,ground-basedfacilitiesoperations,ongoingprojects,andnewinstrumentation.

From 2004 to 2014, the success rates in the NSF/AST AAG program declined from 30% to 17%;NASA/APDR&Adeclinedfrom30%toabout20%.SimilartrendsareobservedinNASAPlanetary(40%to20%), NASA Heliophysics (35% to 15%), and NSF/PHY Particle Astrophysics (45% to 39%). DOE, as amission-orientedagency,withinvestigatorsexpectedtoparticipatethroughoutaprojectlifetime,fromdesignthroughconstructiontoanalysis,cannoteasilybecomparedinthesameway.

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Ifthenumberofmeritoriousproposalswereremainingconstantandtheincreasewereduetoalargerproportionofpoorproposals, thiswould impacttheagencyandreviewerworkloadbutnototherwisenegatively impact the field. Unfortunately, theevidencesuggests thatan increasing fractionofhighlymeritoriousproposalsarenotbeingfunded.Itisdifficulttoassessthistrendacrossagencies,becausereviewers’ ideasofwhat constitutesanexcellentproposal vary frompanel topanel. However,NASAAstrophysics has tracked scores formany years and has reasonable confidence in the stability of thescale.UsingNASAproposal selectiondata fromall ScienceMissionDirectorateROSESprograms from2007 to 2012, we see that while the proportion of proposals rated "Very Good" to "Excellent" hasremainedroughlyconstant,successratesfor"VeryGood"proposalsarerapidlyfalling.Thedataclearlyindicate that the number of proposals submitted to NASA and NSF for individual investigator andmidscalegrantsinAstronomyandAstrophysics,PlanetarysciencesandHeliophysicsisincreasingfasterthanavailablefunding,causingacorrespondingdropinsuccessrate.

Inadditiontothelackoffundingformeritoriousproposals,theincreaseinproposalnumbersincreasesthe workload on the scientists preparing the proposals and the associated administrative staff. Itincreasestheworkloadonthecommunityinservingonmorereviewpanelseachwithmoreproposalstoreview.Italsoincreasessignificantlythestressontheagencies,whosestaffinglevelshaveremainedrelativelyflatinrecentyearsdespitetheincreaseinproposalload.

Within a constrained budget, portfolio balance is one of the few adjustments that can be made toincreasethefractionofindividualresearchgrantsthatarefunded.

6.3Summaryoffindingsandrecommendations

Duetotheincreasednumberofproposalsbeingsubmitted,flatfundingofthecoreprogramcorrelateswith a significant decline in proposal success rates. The PIs submitting proposals remain a relativelystabledemographic intermsofrace,gender,numberofyearssincePhD,andtypeof institution. Therise in proposals is driven largely by an increase in the number of investigators and an increase inmultipleandresubmittedproposals.

Our goal should be to sustain the US astronomical research program with a competitive fundingenvironmentwhilemaintainingthehighestqualityandproductivitycommensuratewithUS leadershipin Astronomy and Astrophysics. However,while the quality of submitted proposals remains high, anincreasingfractionofmeritoriousproposalscannolongerbefunded.

NWNHstates:“Realizingtheseandanarrayofotherscientificopportunitiesiscontingentonmaintainingand strengthening the foundations of the research enterprise ... including technology development,theory,computation,anddatamanagement,andlaboratoryexperiments,aswellas,andinparticular,humanresources.”(NWNH,p.2-3).

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Theimpactofflatordecliningfundinghasadirect,negativeimpactonthehealthofthefieldasmanymeritorious science projects go unfunded. This costs our field an immense amount of scientificallyproductive time and pushes investigators away from grant-supported research. Funding rates fall farshort of US aspirations for leadership with a vibrant program that attracts the brightest youngresearchersintothefield.

FINDING: Over the lastdecadeproposalsuccess rates inAstronomyandAstrophysicshavedroppedsignificantly.Thisisnotprincipallytheresultofadeclineinproposalmerit,changingdemographics,or an increase in the average funding request per proposal (beyond inflation). Rather this is aconsequenceofflatordecliningbudgetsforindividualinvestigatorgrants,moreinvestigators,andalarger proportion of multiple and resubmitted proposals. In the absence of facility divestment byNSF/ASToverthecomingyears,proposalsuccessrateisexpectedtodeclineevenfurther.

FINDING: Avery lowproposalsuccessrate impactsbothresearchersandtheagencies. Researchersspend more time resubmitting meritorious but unfunded proposals and serving on review panels.Some researchers may elect to leave the field or decide not to pursue original and potentiallytransformative research. Agencies must manage the increased workload, staffing problems, andincreasedcostsassociatedwithreviewingmoreproposals.

RECOMMENDATION:Communitybasedgroups,suchastheAASandtheAPS,shouldstudytherecentandprojectedgrowthoftheleadingUSastronomyandastrophysicsresearchcommunityforthenextdecadalsurveyplanningexerciseoftheendofthisdecade.

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AppendixA:RecentAdvancesinAstronomy&Astrophysics

A1.Firstdirectdetectionofgravitationalwaves:

InSeptember2015,theAdvancedLIGOcollaborationunambiguouslydetectedgravitationalwavesfromthemergerof twomassiveblackholes intoasingleyet-moremassiveblackhole. Thisrepresentsthefirstdirectdetectionofgravitationalwaves,verifyingpredictionsfromthetheoryofGeneralRelativityfromacenturyago.Forthisevent,theblackholemasseswereestimatedat29and36timesthemassofoursun,whilethefinalblackholemasswas62solarmasses;henceabout3solarmassesofenergywereradiatedasgravitationalwavesinjust0.2seconds.TheLIGOcollaborationdetectedthiseventinbothoftheiroperationaldetectors,andtheeventwassufficientlyabovetheirnoisethresholdthatitisvisible by eye in the data as a “chirp” that increases rapidly in both frequency and amplitude. Theobserved signal includes part of the inspiral (when the black holeswere orbiting at ~½ the speed oflight),andpossiblythemergerevent,andthering-down.Themeasurementcorrespondstoidentifyingchangesinlengthsof~4kmlongbarsintheirinterferometeratscalescorrespondingto~1/10000timesthesizeofaproton.

Simulatedimageofthetwomassiveblackholesveryshortlybeforetheymerge.Imagecredit:TheSXS(SimulatingeXtremeSpacetimes)Project.

Aside from representing a long-awaited verification of a prediction of General Relativity and theculmination of decades of work by the LIGO team, the system they detected is astrophysically veryinteresting, as black hole masses in this range are higher than expected, with implications for ourunderstandingofstarsandstellarremnants.Theresulthasbeenhailedasthebeginningofanewfieldof gravitational-wave astronomy,which promises to teach usmuch about black holes, neutron stars,andotherastrophysicalobjects.

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FollowingitslaunchinDecember2015,thetwocubeshousedinthecoreoftheLISAPathfindersatellitewerereleasedintotruefreefallinFebruary2016,sothattheirmotionisdeterminedalmostentirelybythecurvatureofspace-time. Measurements inthecomingyearwithunprecedentedsensitivityat lowfrequencies will verify new technologies of sensing and control that will be needed toobservegravitationalwavesfromspace.

A2.DarkEnergyCamera(DECam)findsmissingsatellites

The Dark Energy Camera (DECam) at the CTIO discovered new dwarf galaxies. For many years,astronomers puzzled over the number of satellite galaxies of theMilkyWay, which seemed too lowcomparedto theoreticalexpectations. In2015, seventeennewMilkyWaysatellites --dwarfgalaxiesthat are gravitationally bound to our Galaxy -- were identified in data from the Dark Energy Survey(DES). Further studies of these galaxies using additional instrumentswill help uncover the formationprocessesofthesmallestandmostdarkmatter-dominatedobservablegalaxies.

DECamisalsobeingusedtostudythenearbyFornaxCluster,agravitationally-boundclusterofgalaxies62lightyearsfromus.TheuseofDECamimagingin2015enabledthediscoveryofasubstantialnumberofdwarfgalaxiesintheFornaxcluster.

IllustrationofthelocationsofsixofthenewMilkyWaydwarfsatellitesonthesky,withreferencetothepositionsofalreadyknownsatellites(LargeandSmallMagellanicclouds).Imagecredit:V.Belokurov,S.

Koposov(IoA,Cambridge).Photo:Y.Beletsky(CarnegieObservatories).

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A3.FirstsciencefromtheDarkEnergySurvey

The Dark Energy Survey (DES) released its first cosmology results in 2015. Among them were thelargest-everweaklensingmassmap,whichrevealsstructureinbothregularanddarkmatterinthepastseveral billion years. Gravitational lensing, the deflection of light by mass, allows for the use ofbackgroundgalaxyshapestoreconstructthematterdistributioninthemorenearbystructuresthatthelight must pass by on the way to us. The growth of matter fluctuations due to gravity reveals theinfluence of dark energy, which causes accelerated expansion of the Universe and a slowing of thegrowthofcosmicstructure.

Inadditiontothesemassmaps, thesurveyhada first releaseofcosmologyresults fromtheirscienceverification data. These included a range of studies that used weak lensing and the clustering ofgalaxies,aswellasthecorrelationwiththeCosmicMicrowaveBackground(CMB).

Thismapindicatesthedistributionofdarkmatteracrossalargeskyarea,fromtheDarkEnergySurvey.Thecolorscaleshowstheprojectedmassdensity,withredindicatingoverdenseandblueindicating

underdenseregions.Imagecredit:DarkEnergySurvey.

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A4.Planck2015results,andtheSpidermission

ThePlanckSurveyormappedtheskyacrossmorethanadecadeofwavelengths,fromtheradiotothesub-mm,with intensityandpolarizationdata from its successful four-yearmission; their2015sciencepapersusedatafromtheentiremission.Thecompositeimagesummarizestheinformationvisually.Incombination with high-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from the AtacamaCosmologyTelescope(ACT)andtheSouthPoleTelescope(SPT),thesenewdatadescribetheUniversewith a handful of cosmological parameters constrained to unprecedented precision. In fact,cosmologicaldatafromtheCMBandopticalsurveysnowprovidetighterconstraintsonthesumoftheneutrinomassesthanlaboratorymeasurements.Further,thePlanckmapsrevealnewdetailsaboutthelarge-scalepolarizedemissionfromtheMilkyWay,simultaneouslyimprovingourunderstandingofourowngalacticenvironmentandpavingthewayfordeepersearchesforaninflationarygravitationalwave(IGW)signatureintheCMB.

The lastyearalso sawNASA’s successful flightof themost sensitivemicrowave receiveryetoperatedfromanyplatform.Spider,picturedbelowonitslaunchpadinAntarctica,isapolarimeterthatobservedtheCMBatlargeangularscalesfor17daysinJanuary2015fromalong-durationballoonplatform.

Left:all-skymapofforegroundemissionfromtheMilkyWay,whichisimportantforremovingthiscontaminationfromCosmicMicrowaveBackgroundobservations.(Imagecredit:ESAandthePlanck

Collaboration.)Right:TheSpiderpolarimeteronitslaunchpad.(Imagecredit:theSpidercollaboration)

A5. Thousands of exoplanets, first close-by rocky planets in the Habitable Zone, and first planetsaroundWhiteDwarfs

Amongthemorethanfourthousandplanetarycandidatesandovertwothousandconfirmedexoplanetsto date from the Kepler and K2 spacemission, several hundreds are planetary systems and about adozenaresmallplanets intheHabitableZoneoftheirstars.Theseaddtothehundredsofexoplanetsalreadydetectedfromthegroundbymanydifferenttelescopes.Theplanetsandtheirplanetarysystemsshow awide variety of characteristics. Even though small rocky exoplanets (Earth-size or Earth-massanalogs) are still very hard to find, about onedozendetected exoplanets are small enough that theyshould be rocky like Earth and receive comparable stellar flux to Earth. In addition some of the

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exoplanets in the Habitable Zone detected by the K2mission orbit close-by stars,making them verygoodtargetsforfollow-upobservationsfromthegroundaswellasNASAsfuturespacemissionJWST.

ThedistributionofKeplerplanetcandidatesbysizeasofJanuary2015,showingtheincreasenumberofsmallplanetsfoundandthedecreasingsensitivityoftheinstrumentsresultinginlessdetected

candidatesforsmallplanets.credit:NASAAmes/WStenzel

A6Observationsofearlystageofplanetformationaroundsingleandbinarystars

ALMAobservedtheearlystagesofplanetformationandaccretingprotoplanetsintheLkCa15transitiondisk.ImagesofthediskaroundthestarSZ91showthefirstdiskaroundastarthatislessmassivethanours-ithasonlyhalfofthemassofourSun.Theseobservationssimultaneouslypresentamigrationofdustparticles fromtheoutermost zonesandevident signsof interactionbetweenyoungplanetswiththediskintheinnermostzone.

Thedisk around the planet-forming disc aroundHD142527, a binary star about 450 light-years fromEarth in a cluster of young stars known as the Scorpius-Centaurus Association, also shows the earlystages of planet formation. The red arc in the artist’s image is free of gas, suggesting the carbonmonoxide has “frozen out,” forming a layer of frost on the dust grains in that region. Astronomersspeculatethisfrostprovidesaboosttoplanetformation.Thetwodotsinthecentrerepresentthetwostarsinthesystem.

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Fig.(top)AccretingprotoplanetsintheLkCa15transitiondisk,creditnature,bottom(left)Artistimpression-ProtoplanetarydiskaroundHD142527binarystarsystem.Imagecredit:B.Saxton

(NRAO/AUI/NSF),(right)ImageofthedustringthatsurroundstheyoungstarSz91.

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AppendixB:ExplanationofAcronymsAAAC AstronomyandAstrophysicsAdvisoryCommittee

AAGAstronomyandAstrophysicsGrant

AANM The2000NRCreport“AstronomyandAstrophysicsfortheNewMillennium”

AAS AmericanAstronomicalSociety

ACTA(orCTA) AtmosphericČerenkovTelescopeArray

ACTPol AtacamaCosmologyTelescopePolarimeter

ADAP AstrophysicalDataAnalysisProgram

ADMX AxionDarkMattereXperiment

AFTA AstrophysicsFocusedTelescopeAssets

ALMA AtacamaLargeMillimeter/submillimeterArray

AO AdaptiveOptics

APRA AstrophysicsResearchandAnalysis

APS AmericanPhysicalSociety

ATHENA AdvancedTelescopeforHighEnergyAstrophysics

ATP AstrophysicsTheoryProgram

ATST AdvancedTechnologySolarTelescope

CAA TheNationalResearchCouncil’sCommitteeonAstronomyandAstrophysics

CAPP AASCommitteeonAstronomyandPublicPolicy

CARMA CombinedArrayforResearchinMillimeter-waveAstronomy

CCAT CerroChajnantorAtacamaTelescope

CCD ChargedCoupledDevice

CD CriticalDesignreview

CDMS CryogenicDarkMatterSearch

CF CosmicFrontier

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CMB CosmicMicrowaveBackgroundRadiation

CTA(orACTA) AtmosphericČerenkovTelescopeArray

CTIO CerroTololoInterAmericanObservatory

CV CosmicVisions,sciencethemegroupsinDOE/CF

DE DarkEnergy

DECam DarkEnergyCamera

DES DarkEnergySurvey

DESI DarkEnergySpectroscopicInstrument

DKIST DanielK.InouyeSolarTelescope

DM DarkMatter

DOE DepartmentofEnergy

DOE/CF DepartmentofEnergyHighEnergyPhysicsCosmicFrontier

DPF DivisionofParticlesandFields(oftheAmericanPhysicalSociety)

ESA EuropeanSpaceAgency

FACA FederalAdvisoryCommitteeAct

FDR FinalDesignReview

FOC FullOperationalCapability

FGST FermiGamma-raySpaceTelescope

FY FiscalYear

GONG GlobalOscillationNetworkGroup

GSMT GiantSegmentedMirrorTelescope

HEP HighEnergyPhysics

HEPAP HighEnergyPhysicsAdvisoryPanel

HERA HydrogenEpochofReionizationArray

IceCube IceCubeNeutrinoObservatory

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ISIM IntegratedScienceInstrumentModule

ISS-CREAM InternationalSpaceStationCosmicRayEnergeticsandMass

IXO InternationalX-rayObservatory

JAXA JapanAerospaceExplorationAgency

JWST JamesWebbSpaceTelescope

KPNO KittPeakNationalObservatory

LSB LongDurationBalloon

LIGO LaserInterferometerGravitational-WaveObservatory

LISA LaserInterferometerSpaceAntenna

LSST LargeSynopticSurveyTelescope

LZ LUX-ZEPLIN

LUX LargeUndergroundXenondetector

MIDEX Medium-classExplorer

MIE MajorItemofEquipment

MOO MissionsOfOpportunity

MOU MemorandumofUnderstanding

MPS Mathematical&PhysicalSciences,NSFDirectoratefor

MREFC MajorResearchEquipmentandFacilities

MSIP Mid-ScaleInnovationProgram

NASA NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration

NASA/APD NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministrationAstrophysicsDivision

NEO Near-EarthObject

NICER NeutronstarInteriorCompositionExploreR

NOAA NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration

NOAO NationalOpticalAstronomyObservatory

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NSB NationalScienceBoard

NRC NationalResearchCouncil

NSF NationalScienceFoundation

NSF/AST NationalScienceFoundationAstronomyDivision

NSF/PHY NationalScienceFoundationPhysicsDivision

NWNH The2010NRCdecadal survey reportNewWorlds,NewHorizons inAstronomyandAstrophysics

OHEP OfficeofHighEnergyPhysics,DOE

OMB OfficeofManagementandBudget

OSTP OfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy

P5 ParticlePhysicsProjectPrioritizationPanel

PASAG ParticleAstrophysicsScientificAssessmentGroup

PRC NationalScienceFoundationPortfolioReviewCommittee

R&D ResearchandDevelopment

SDSS SloanDigitalSkySurvey

SMD ScienceMissionDirectorate

SMEX SmallExplorer

SNOlab SudburyNeutrinoObservatoryLaboratory

SOAR SouthernAstrophysicalResearchTelescope

SOLIS SynopticOpticalLong-termInvestigationsoftheSun

SOFIA StratosphericObservatoryforInfraredAstronomy

SPT SouthPoleTelescope

STEM ScienceTechnologyEducationMathematics

SuperCDMS SuperCryogenicDarkMatterSearch

SXS SoftX-raySpectrometer

TESS TransitingExoplanetSurveySatellite

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TSIP TelescopeSystemsInstrumentationProgram

URO UniversityRadioObservatory

VERITAS VeryEnergeticRadiationImagingTelescopeArraySystem

VLBA VeryLongBaselineArray

WFIRST Wide-FieldInfraredSurveyTelescope

WIYN Wisconsin-Indiana-Yale-NOAOTelescope

WPS WFIRSTPreparatoryScience

XRP ExoplanetResearchProgram

ZEPLIN ZonEdProportionalscintillationinLIquidNoblegases

iNationalResearchCouncil.NewWorlds,NewHorizonsinAstronomyandAstrophysics.Washington,DC:TheNationalAcademiesPress,2010.doi:10.17226/12951.iihttp://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2015/nsf15044/nsf15044.pdfiiihttp://science.nasa.gov/astrophysics/documents/ivhttp://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/sdt_public/WFIRST-AFTA_SDT_Report_150310_Final.pdfvhttp://science.energy.gov/~/media/hep/hepap/pdf/May-2014/FINAL_P5_Report_053014.pdfviInthistable,STEMeducationisnotincluded.STEMisnotincludedincongressionallyappropriatedamounts,butisincludedinAdministrationrequests.Forclarityitissubtractedfromtherequestlevel.viiAstrophysicsDecadalStrategicMissionsviiiFollowingtheSeniorReview,specificbudgetsforoperatingmissionswillbedeterminedandtheFY17numberwillbeadjustedaccordingly.ixTheAstrophysicsResearchbudgetrequestnumberincludes(a)theSeniorReviewfundingisbookkepthere,(b)theSMDSTEMeducationbudget.Bothofthesearebookkeptinthislinebutdonotreflectthebudgetavailablefortheastrophysicsportfolio.

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CompetedGrantSuccessRatesinUSAstronomyandAstrophysics

AstronomyandAstrophysicsAdvisoryCommittee

March15,2016ExecutiveSummary:The2010AstronomyandAstrophysicsdecadalsurvey,NewWorldsNewHorizons(NWNH),stressedtheimportance of achieving balance between funding construction and operations of observatories andmaintainingahealthycoreprogramofcompetedgrantresearch.Thisreportsummarizesthestrainsonthecoreprogramoverthelastdecade.Over the last decade a numberofworld-leadingobservatories beganoperationsor construction. ThesciencetheseprojectswilladdresscontinuestoattractavibrantnewgenerationofinvestigatorswhoseworkiscriticaltoensurethebestscientificreturnfromtheseinvestmentsandcontinuedUSleadershipin astronomyandastrophysics.However, over the sameperiod that thesemajorprojects are comingintooperation,thefundsavailableforcommunity-wideopenlycompetedgrantshaveremainedlargelyflatinbothNSF/ASTandNASA/APD.Flat fundingof the coreprogram correlateswith a significant decline in proposal success rates. From2004to2014,thesuccessratesintheNSF/ASTAAGprogramdeclinedfrom30%to17%andNASA/APDR&Aproposalsuccessdeclinedfrom30%toabout20%.SimilartrendsareobservedinNASAPlanetary(40%to20%),NASAHeliophysics(35%to15%),andNSF/PHYPA(45%to39%).Duringthesameperiodno significant changes occurred in the distribution of proposal merit, and in proposer demographics(seniority,gender,andinstitutionalaffiliation).Flat funding of the core program combined with the success of the field in attracting a modest(estimated tobeabout2% to2.5%peryear) influxofnew investigatorspartlyexplains thedecline insuccessrates.ThedeclineinsuccessratesgetsexacerbatedbyanincreaseinthenumberofproposalssubmittedbythesamePIonagivenyearandbyashortercadenceofresubmissions.NSF and NASA should continue to work toward balance of their portfolio. In the case of NSF/AST avigorous implementationof thedivestments recommendedby thePortfolio ReviewCommittee (PRC)canincreasefundingforthebaseprogram,helpalleviatetheproposalpressurecrisis,andbetterrealizethescientificpotentialoftheleadingfacilitiesandmissions.Giventhecurrentcrisis,communitybasedgroupssuchastheAmericanAstronomicalSociety(AAS)andthe American Physical Society (APS) should study the recent and projected growth of the leadingUSastronomy and astrophysics research community to inform the decadal planning exercise of possiblestrategiesforthenextdecade.1.IntroductionThe2010AstronomyandAstrophysicsdecadalsurvey,NewWorldsNewHorizons(NWNH),stressedtheimportanceof achievingbalancebetween funding facilities and spacemissionsandkeepingahealthycoreprogramofPI-ledresearch.Inpage132-133,NWNHstates1:

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“Asignificantchallengefortheastrophysicsprogramishowtomaintainsupportfor individualinvestigatorspursuingabroadrangeofactivitiesinalandscapewherespecific,largeprogramsprovideafluctuating level of funding for associated analysis and theory. Realizing the scientific potential ofexisting facilities is of primary importance, but so is placing thebroad rangeof results in appropriatecontext, providing young scientists with opportunities to develop their potential, and enabling thecreativethinkingthatlaysthefoundationsforthefuture. As inmost fields, theprimarymechanisms for supporting researchand trainingarecompetedgrantsprograms.NASAfundsbothgeneralmission-enablinggrantsprogramsandthosesupportingthespecificsciencefromoperatingsatellites,suchastheguestobserverprogramsassociatedwithHubble,Chandra,Spitzer,andFermi.NSFsupportsageneralastronomyandastrophysicsgrantsprogramaswellas more specialized programs such as the CAREER awards and the Astronomy and AstrophysicsPostdoctoralFellowprogram.DOEsupportscentrallyadministeredgrantsprograms,thoseadministeredthroughspecificDOElaboratories,andawardsforyounginvestigators. In recent times, funding for these essential programshas flattenedor evendeclined atNASAandNSF,especiallywhenconsideredrelativetothegrowthofthefield.”Unfortunately flat fundingforbasicsciencesandthedownwardtrend inthefundingof thecompetedgrantsprogramhascontinuedafterthepublicationofNWNHin2010withacorrespondingdecreaseinproposal success rates. The dynamics of such a decrease are nuanced, as the portfolio of competedgrants for the US astronomy and astrophysics community is complex and agency dependent. TheprincipalsupportforNWNHsciencecomesfromNASAAstrophysicsDivision(NASA/APD)andNationalScienceFoundationAstronomicalSciencesDivision(NSF/AST).Aproductiveincreaseininterdisciplinaryinteragencycollaboration,notablywithNSFPhysicsDivision(PHY)andDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)HighEnergyPhysics (HEP)Division,hashelped tostrengthensomeareasof theprogramrecommendedbyNWNH. NASA Planetary and Heliophysics Divisions also have strong traditional ties to the NWNHcommunity in some areas of overlapping interest. The focus of this document is on the principalsupportofNSF/ASTandNASA/APDfrom2004to2014.RelatedeffortsinNSF/PHY,NASAPlanetaryandHeliophysicsarebrieflydiscussed.2.NSFDivisionofAstronomicalSciences(NSF/AST)The Individual Investigator Program at NSF/AST includes a number of programs that individualinvestigators can compete for. The largest and broadest is the Astronomy andAstrophysics ResearchGrants(AAG)withanallocationof$43.7MinFY14,whichwasabout18%ofthetotaldivisionbudgetof$238.4M. Other competed programs and their FY14 budget include Astronomy and AstrophysicsPostdoctoral Fellowships (AAPF) at $2.05M,AdvancedTechnologies and Instrumentation (ATI) $7.5M,Faculty Early Career Development Program (CAREER) at $4.76M, Enhancing Access to the RadioSpectrum(EARS)at$6.85M,MajorResearchInstrumentationProgram(MRI)$7.23M,andothersmallerprograms.Givenitssize,impact,andbreadth,thesuccessrateintheAAGprogramisthemostappropriatetracerofthehealthofcompetedgrantsatNSF/AST.Figure12showsthefundingofAAGfromFY90toFY14andtheproposalsuccessrateduringthesameperiod.OvertheFY04toFY14decade,AAGfundingincreasedfrom$30.7MforFY04to$43.7MforFY14(whichcorrespondsto$34.9Min2004dollars).SettingasidetheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActof2009, thegrowthofAAGpeaked inFY10 to$49.4M($42.7M in 2004 dollars) and has decreased from FY10 to FY14; over the same period the proposalsuccessratedeclinedbelowhistoricalminima.

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From ~ 50% in the early 1990s to ~30% in the early 2000s, the success rate in AAG decreasedsignificantlyoverthelastdecadereachingavalueaslowas~15%inFY12andjustslightlyhigherat~17%in FY14. In the absence of increased overall funding for NSF/AST and/or vigorous implementation offacility divestment as recommendedby the Portfolio ReviewCommittee, the increase in demandwilldrive the AAG success rate to decrease from ~15% in FY15 to below ~10% in FY19 (assuming thecontinuationofa2%rise intotalAAGdollardemandperyearandtheprojectedNSF/ASTbudgetandportfoliowithout facilitydivestmentsout toFY19).Operationsof theLargeSynopticSurveyTelescope(LSST),thefirstpriorityforNSFinNWNH,willstrainthebudgetsfurtherinthenextdecade.

Figure1:NSF/ASTAAGBudgetsandProposalSuccessRatesfrom1990to2014.TheanomalousspikeinFY09isduetotheone-timestimulusprovidedbytheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentAct.The low success rate is driven by a combination of flat funding and growth of number of submittedproposals.Thenumberofsubmittedproposalsroughlydoubledfrom379 in2004to731 in2014.ThefourfieldsthatAAGproposalsarereviewedin,ExtragalacticAstronomyandCosmology(EXC),GalacticAstronomy (GAL), Stellar Astronomy and Astrophysics (SAA), and Planetary Astronomy (PLA) allincreasedsignificantly(seefigure2).(NotethatSAAandPLAassignmentswererestructuredin2013-14byamoveofextrasolarplanetstudiestoPLA.)Many aspects of the AAG statistics remained unchanged during the 2004 to 2014 period. Thedistributionoffundingrequestsamongbudgetcategories(e.g., indirectcosts,publications,computing,subcontracts,participantsupport,travel,equipment, fringe,personnel)remainednearlyconstantoverthedecade.BetweenFY08andFY15,thefractionofAAGproposalsthatrequestedlessthan3monthsofsalary per year also remained approximately flat (around 80% to 85%). The funding rate for womenremainedapproximatelyequaltosubmissionratebetweenFY04andFY14andtheoverallpercentageoffemale PIs experienced a modest growth from below 20% in 2004 to about 25% in 2013. Thedistributionby typeof institutionsofproposingPIsalso remainedsteadywith80% to85%beingPhDgrantinginstitutions.

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Figure2:NSF/ASTAAGProposalsdividedbyreviewsub-fields(EXC,GAL,SAA,PLA)from1990to2015.NSF/AST data indicate that proposal budgets are not growing out of line with inflation. Themedianproposal request for theAAGprogramhas increased from$93k/year to $150k/yearover the last 25-yearperiod,whichcorrespondstoa12%reductioninconstant2015dollars.Reducingthesizeofgrantbudgetsexacerbates theproposalpressure,sincea largernumberofgrantsarerequiredtosupportaviableresearchteam,orthefullsalaryofakey(non-academic)researcher.The percentage of AAG proposals by PIs with 0 to 4 and 5 to 9 years after their PhD remained anapproximatelysteadyfractionof theoveralldistributionbetween2006and2015whilethefractionofPIswithmorethan25yearspost-PhDincreasedfrom25%to29%fromFY08toFY15asshowninFig.3.Thesuccessrateforfirst-timeproposershastrackedtheoverallsuccessrateovertheyearsbeingonlyslightly lower: in FY14 the overall success rate was 17% while the new proposers success rate was14.4%.

Figure3:DistributionofsubmittedAAGproposalPIsversusseniorityasmeasuredbyyearsafterPhD.

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Thedatashowthattherearenolargetrendsindemographicsorredistributionofproposalsbysubfield.The growth in submitted AAG proposals is most likely caused by the combination of new proposersjoining the researcheffort,an increase in resubmissionsofdeclinedproposals,andan increase in thenumberofsubmittedproposalsperPI.Thenumberofuniqueproposersper3-yearfundingcyclehasgrownfrom1025duringthe2008-2010period to 1160 during 2013-2015, representing an average growth of 2.5% per year. This can becomparedtotheAASfullmembership,whichhasgrownfrom3000to4500overtheyearsfrom1990to2014, representing an average growth of 2.1% per year. Another indicator of new proposers is thegrowthinAstronomyfacultymembersofabout2.3%peryearfrom2006to2014,whichwascompiledbyAIP3.From2008to2015,thenumberofAAGproposalsgrewfrom566to771representinga36%growthoranaverage~5%growthperyear.Thecharacterofthisgrowthissporadicwithlargefluctuations.Togeta senseof themany factors involvedonecanassume thegrowthof thecommunity tobeabout2 to2.5%peryearonaverage,thusthereisanadditionalfactorof2.5to3%peryearthathasaffectedthegrowthinnumberofproposals.ThenumberofsingleproposalssubmittedperPIinAAGhasgrownbyabout~2.8%peryearfrom2008to2015.MultipleproposalssubmittedbythesamePItoAAGonagivenyearcanexplainanadditionalaverage yearly growth of about ~2% from 2008 to 2015 on the total number of proposal. Thecontributions from multiple proposals nearly doubled from 56 in 2008 to 106 in 2015 with largefluctuations. In principle, this effect could be effectively controlled if NSF/AST limits the number ofproposals submitted by individual PIs to AAG each year. Currently, NSF/AST strongly suggests thatresearchersvoluntarilylimitthemselvesina“NoteaboutFY16AAGProposals”.4Whilethislimitisoneoptiontolessentheburdenonproposersandreviewers,oneawardmaybeinsufficienttosupportthepersonnelandotherresourcesneededforthesuccessofagivenproject.

Figure4: percentof PIs that submitmultipleproposals toNSF/ASTAAG fromFY08 to FY15 (left5) andNASA/APDADAP,APRA,andATPfrom2010to2014.NumbersnexttoeachcolorrepresentthepercentofPIssubmitting1,2,3,4,and5proposalsperyear.(ThesenumbersincludeonlyPIs,notCo-Is.)Asthesuccessratedecreasesitislikelythatthenumberofresubmissionsinsubsequentyearstendstoincrease.ThetypicalAAGawardisfor3years,thuswhensuccessrateswerehigher,alargerfractionofinvestigatorswerelikelytosubmitfundingproposalsonceevery3years.Agenciesdonotkeeptrackofresubmissionsfollowingafailedproposalfromtheyearbefore,butastudythatcomparesthesimilarity

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of the text of a given proposalwith any proposal submitted in the prior year6 is consistentwith thehypothesisthatAAGPIsareresubmittingproposalsmoreofteninFY12toFY14theninFY08andFY09.SummarizingthefindingsinthecaseofNSF/ASTAAG,acombinationofanumberofsmalleffectsoverthedecadehaveconspiredtocreateanextreme~50%growthinnumberofproposalsduringadecadeof flat funding. Flat budgets combinedwith the~2%annual growthofnew researchers, theeffectofmultipleproposalsperPIperyear,andafastercadenceofannualresubmissions,producea~5%annualincrease in the number of proposals. To alleviate this situation an increase in the NSF/AST budgetcombinedwithavigorous implementationof thePortfolioReviewrecommendationscanalleviate thestressed AAG program, avoid even lower success rates, and realize the scientific potential of leadingfacilitiesoperatingandunderconstructionsinthisdecade.Inaddition,theimpactofproposedchangesdesignedtomitigatethissituationshouldbestudiedbytheupcomingAAS/APSsurvey.3.NASAAstrophysicsDivision(NASA/APD)Over the last decade, the funding for openly competed Research and Analysis (R&A) at the NASAAstrophysics Division (NASA/APD) through the Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences(ROSES)programshasstayedapproximatelyflat.TheR&AprogramincludestheAstrophysicsResearchandAnalysis(APRA)program,AstrophysicsDataAnalysisProgram(ADAP),AstrophysicsTheoryProgram(ATP), Exoplanet Research Program (XRP), Nancy Grace Roman Technology Fellowships (RTF), andothers.R&Awasfundedat$82MinFY05,suffereda15%cutinFY07,andonlyreached$82MagaininFY12. By FY15 it grew back to $90M (which is still below the inflation corrected value of FY05). Inaddition,theguestinvestigatorprogramsassociatedwithoperatingmissionsfluctuatedfrom$68.9MinFY05to$56.2MinFY15withpeakfundinginFY07of$78.4M.Onapositivenote,thefundingavailablefornamedfellowships(Hubble,Einstein,andSagan)grewsteadilyfrom$5MinFY05to$13.6MinFY15.ThenumberofsubmittedproposalstotheNASA/APDR&Aprogramhasincreasedfromaround500inFY04-05 to past 800 in FY15.7 With some fluctuations, the number of selected proposals and thefunding levels for selected proposals in NASA/APD have remained approximately constant, so thesuccess rate for proposals has decreased from ~30% to ~20% over the decade. Including the NASAAstrophysicsGuestObserverprogramsincreasestheoverallsuccessratetoapproximately25%.NASAAstrophysics has tracked proposal scores formany years and has reasonable confidence in thestability of the ranking scale. The proportion of all submitted proposals that are rated Very Good toExcellent (VG, VG/E, E) has remained roughly constant, with some evidence for at most a ~10%decrease.AlsostableacrossallprogramsarethesuccessratesforproposalswithVG/EandEratingsat>75%and>90%,respectively.However,thesuccessrateofproposalsintheVGcategoryhasfallenfrom45%in2007-2008to25%in2012.8 Thus,whilethequalityofsubmittedproposalsappearstoremainhigh,agreatlyincreasingfractionofmeritoriousproposalscannolongerbefunded.WhilenotascomprehensiveastheavailabledatafromNSF/AST,dataoftheNASAAPDcompetedgrantsprograms show similar trends to NSF/AST. In 2014 there were 573 proposals from 476 unique PIsapplyingtoNASAAstrophysicsR&Aprograms.In2008and2009,thenumberofproposalsrosefrom290to393.Thusweknowthattherewerenomorethan290(393)uniquePIsin2008(2009),comparedto476 in 2014. The pattern of increased number of PIsmirrors the situation for NSF/AST. As shown infigure4, thenumberofPIssubmittingonlyoneproposal isaround80to85%similartoNSF/AST.The

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numberofPIssubmittingmorethanoneproposalalsoincreasedinNASA’sROSESprogramfrom2010to2015.4.OtherRelatedProgramsAnother funding resource for some areas in NWNH comes from the NSF Particle Astrophysics (PA)programintheDivisionofPhysics(PHY).NSFPHY/PAisasmallerprogramthatstudiesastronomyandastrophysicswithparticles:cosmicrays,high-energyphotons,neutrinos,anddarkmatterparticles.Overthepastdecade,theirbudgethasbeenasteadypercentageofthePhysicsbudget,around7%. WhiletheprogramissmallcomparedtoNSF/ASTitssuccessratehasalsodecreased.From2005to2014thenumberofproposalsmorethandoubled(from30to70),whereas funding increasedbyabout34% inthesameperiod.Theaveragesuccess rate from2005to2007was45%,while from2012to2014thesuccessratehaddecreasedto39%.ThesolarandspacephysicscommunityreliesprimarilyonNASAHeliophysics(125proposalsperyear)andtheNSFDivisionofAtmosphericandGeospaceSciences(25proposalsperyearinSolar-Terrestrial).Overall, inflationhas steadily eroded thebuyingpowerofNASAHeliophysics research funding,whichhas remained essentially constant in real dollars since FY04. The success rate has decreased steadilyoverthelast8years,droppingfrom~35%to17%.9ThesamestoryisgenerallytrueforNASA'sPlanetaryScienceDivision.ThePlanetarybudgetforcompetedgrantsgrewfrom$110M(2006)to$180M(2014)andtheproposalsuccessratewentfromabove30%toaround23%.OverthelastdecadetheNASAHeliophysicsprogramhasincreasinglyemphasizedafewlargermissionsat theexpenseof smallermissionsand the competed researchprogram.TheSolarandSpacePhysicssurveygavespecificrecommendationstorebalancetheportfoliointhenextdecade,withanemphasison research and analysis. NSF Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (AGS) is currentlyconductingitsownportfolioreviewofgeospacefacilitiesinordertoaddressthischallengeofoperatingnewfacilitiesversustheexpenseofexistingfacilitiesandthecompetedresearchprograms.SincetheAAACisconcernedwithinteragencycoordination,itwouldbedesirabletoassesstheextenttowhichPIsaresubmittingproposals tomultipleagencies. At this timesuchananalysis isnotpossible,sincethePInamesofdeclinedproposalsarenotpublic.AfutureAPS/AASsurveymayaddressthispointandotherlimitationsoftheanalysispresentedhere.5.TheCostoftheReviewProcessThemostseriousconsequenceofalowproposalsuccessrateisthelossinscientificproductivityoftheleadingresearchefforts inUSastronomyandastrophysics.Thesmaller fractionofmeritoriousscienceprojectsthatarefundedbyopenlycompetedgrantslimitsthefullrealizationofthescientificpotentialof existing facilities, and the creative thinking that lays the foundations for the future. At thesehistorically low success rates a large percentage of very good to excellent science is not beingsupported.The increased proposal load also poses significant review management challenges to the fundingagencies. Although agency staffing has remained relatively flat in recent years, the number of panelsandthenumberofproposalsperpanelhavebothincreased.Theorganizationandexecutionofjustone

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panel takes130+hoursof eachNSFProgramOfficer's time.NSFhasdevelopedanumberof tools tooptimizetheinternalreviewprocesses,butanother30%increaseinproposalvolumeoverthenextfiveyearswouldnotbemanageable.In2014,NASA/APDhandled832proposalsinitscoreR&Aprograms.TheestimatedyearlycostinNASAstafftimeanddirectexpensesforreviewertravel,meetingspace,etc.toplan,execute,anddocumenttheevaluationandselectionprocessis~$3M.Inaddition,recruitmentofreviewers isanotherchallenge.Withan increase insubmissions,conflictofinterestdisqualifiesalargenumberofpossiblereviewers.Inaddition,reviewersarelesslikelytoacceptataskwheremosthighlyratedprojectscannotbefunded.Revieweracceptancerateshavebeenfalling;currentlyonly20-25%ofreviewersagreetoservewhenasked.4.ConclusionThelastdecadehaswitnessedtheconstructionandoperationsofworld-leadingobservatorieswiththepotential tosecurethe long-termleadershipofUSastronomyandastrophysics.Overthesameperiodfundsavailableforcommunity-wideopenlycompetedgrantshaveremainedlargelyflatinbothNSF/ASTandNASA/APD.BalancebetweenfundingconstructionandoperationsofobservatoriesandmaintainingahealthycoreprogramofcompetedgrantsiscrucialforthefutureofthefieldasstressedbyNWNH.Flatfundingofthecoreprogramstronglycorrelateswithasignificantdeclineinproposalsuccessrates.The effect of flat funding of the core program combinedwith the success of the field in attracting amodest2%to2.5%peryearrateofnewinvestigatorsgeneratesadeclineinsuccessrates.TheimpactofanincreaseinthenumberofproposalssubmittedbythesamePIonagivenyearorinsubsequentyears,naturalreactionstoadecliningsuccessrate,exacerbatesthedecline.NSF and NASA should continue to work toward balance of their portfolio including divestment andtermination efforts that can increase funding for the base program, alleviate the proposal pressurecrisis,andrealizethescientificpotentialofleadingnewfacilitiesandmissions.CommunitybasedgroupssuchastheAmericanAstronomicalSociety (AAS)andtheAmericanPhysicalSociety (APS) should study the recent and projected growth of the leading US astronomy andastrophysics research community to inform the decadal planning exercise of the end of this decade.Suchastudyshouldincludeameasureoftheimpactofproposedremediestothefallingsuccessrates.Acknowledgements:Wegratefullyacknowledgethehelpandencouragementofmanyindividuals.TheNSFandNASAdatapresentedinthisreportcouldnothavebeenassembledandanalyzedinausefulandtimelywaywithout the active involvement of Daniel Evans, Hashima Hasan, Paul Hertz, Arik Posner,JonathanRall,LindaSparke,JimUlvestad,andJimWhitmore.Thepresentreportwascomposedbythe2015-16AAACmembersanddrawsextensivelyfromtheeffortledbythe2014-15AAACpanelandtheproposal pressure interim document written by Priscilla Cushman, Todd Hoeksema, ChryssaKouveliotou,JamesLowenthal,BradleyPeterson,KeivanG.Stassun,andTedvonHippel.1NationalResearchCouncil.NewWorlds,NewHorizonsinAstronomyandAstrophysics.Washington,DC:TheNationalAcademiesPress,2010.doi:10.17226/12951.

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2http://www.nsf.gov/attachments/131083/public/Dan-Evans_AST_Individual_Investigator_Programs-AAAC_Meeting.pdf3numbersprovidedbyRachelIvie,DirectorStatisticalResearchCenterattheAmericanInstituteofPhysics4http://www.nsf.gov/div/index.jsp?org=AST5http://www.nsf.gov/attachments/131083/public/Dan-Evans_AST_Individual_Investigator_Programs-AAAC_Meeting.pdf6http://www.nsf.gov/attachments/131083/public/Dan-Evans_AST_Individual_Investigator_Programs-AAAC_Meeting.pdf7http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2015/01/07/AAS_Townhall_Hertz_Jan2015_FINAL.pdf8http://science.nasa.gov/researchers/sara/grant-stats/a-plot-of-grades-vs-who-gets-selected/9http://science.nasa.gov/researchers/sara/division-corner/heliophysics-division-corner/