march 14, 2006intl fff workshop, costa rica weather decision technologies, inc. hydro-meteorological...
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March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Weather Decision Technologies, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc.Inc.Hydro-Meteorological
Decision Support SystemBill Conway, Vice President
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Weather Decision Technologies
Founded in 1999 by scientists from the National Severe Founded in 1999 by scientists from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma, and the Storms Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma Climate Survey, currently have 25 employeesOklahoma Climate Survey, currently have 25 employees
WDT has expertise in data integration, processing, and WDT has expertise in data integration, processing, and advanced algorithm design, and operational implementationadvanced algorithm design, and operational implementation
Operational Decision Support Systems implemented both in Operational Decision Support Systems implemented both in the US and internationallythe US and internationally
Technology partners are the US National Severe Storms Lab, Technology partners are the US National Severe Storms Lab, McGill University Canada, University of Oklahoma, National McGill University Canada, University of Oklahoma, National Center for Atmospheric Research, TOA Systems (US Precision Center for Atmospheric Research, TOA Systems (US Precision Lightning Network), Enterprise Electronics CooperationLightning Network), Enterprise Electronics Cooperation
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
WDT Weather Decision Support Systems Nowcast Decision Support SystemNowcast Decision Support System – for producing user-specific – for producing user-specific
short-term warnings and predictions of severe and hazardous weather short-term warnings and predictions of severe and hazardous weather phenomena. phenomena.
HydroMet Decision Support SystemHydroMet Decision Support System – automated nowcasting (0-3 – automated nowcasting (0-3 hrs) of severe weather and flash floodinghrs) of severe weather and flash flooding
Aviation Weather Decision Support SystemAviation Weather Decision Support System - predictions and - predictions and forecasts of weather potentially hazardous to aircraft and personnel forecasts of weather potentially hazardous to aircraft and personnel in air and ground operationsin air and ground operations
Mesoscale Forecast Decision Support SystemMesoscale Forecast Decision Support System –– custom custom operational numerical weather prediction solutions operational numerical weather prediction solutions
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Radars
Satellite IR
Surface Observations
Upper Air Obs
Lightning
Nowcasts of Many Weather Phenomena
Precipitation Estimates and Predictions
Lightning Predictions
HydroMet Products
Data Integration
HydroMet Decision Support System
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HDSS Overview Integrates all available data – radar (single or dual-Integrates all available data – radar (single or dual-
pol), satellite, model, surface stations, and rain pol), satellite, model, surface stations, and rain gaugesgauges
Performs data quality control and builds 3D mosaics Performs data quality control and builds 3D mosaics of the dataof the data
HDSS Algorithms:HDSS Algorithms: QPE using Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Using QPE using Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Using
Multiple SensorsMultiple Sensors QPF using the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting QPF using the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting
Using Semi-Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE)Using Semi-Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) Flash Flood Prediction AlgorithmFlash Flood Prediction Algorithm
Web browser based displayWeb browser based display 3D display workstation3D display workstation
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Uses for HydroMet Decision Support System
QPE/QPF derived flood prediction on QPE/QPF derived flood prediction on various time scales and domainsvarious time scales and domains
Automated flood warning decision Automated flood warning decision support tools for operational support tools for operational forecastersforecasters
Customizable Web-based alert and Customizable Web-based alert and warning disseminationwarning dissemination
Initialization fields for hydrological Initialization fields for hydrological modelingmodeling
US HDSS Deployments
Salt River ProjectSalt River ProjectArizonaArizona
Texas/Oklahoma WeatherTexas/Oklahoma WeatherModification ProjectModification Project
NOAA Sea GrantNOAA Sea GrantNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina
Lower ColoradoLower ColoradoRiver AuthorityRiver Authority
TexasTexas
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International HDSS Deployments
CWBCWBTaiwanTaiwan
ARPAV ARPAV ItalyItaly
TMDTMDThailandThailand
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WDT Central Processing Facility in the USA
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Radars
Satellite
Surface Observations
Upper Air Obs
Lightning
Nowcasts of Many Weather Phenomena
Precipitation Estimates and Predictions
Lightning Predictions
HydroMet Products
Data Integration
HydroMet Decision Support System
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
HDSS Functionality Data quality control and 3D mosaicingData quality control and 3D mosaicing
QPE using Quantitative Precipitation QPE using Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Using Multiple SensorsEstimation Using Multiple Sensors
QPF using the McGill Algorithm for QPF using the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting Using Semi-Precipitation Nowcasting Using Semi-Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE)Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE)
Flash Flood Prediction AlgorithmFlash Flood Prediction Algorithm
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Data Quality and Mosaic Clutter removalClutter removal Attenuation correctionAttenuation correction Bright band/hail identificationBright band/hail identification Vertical Profile of Reflectivity correctionVertical Profile of Reflectivity correction Hybrid scanningHybrid scanning Using dual-polarization radars, QC results Using dual-polarization radars, QC results
can be significantly improvedcan be significantly improved Data from all available radars are mosaicked Data from all available radars are mosaicked
on a 1x1 (horizontal) km X 500 (vertical) m on a 1x1 (horizontal) km X 500 (vertical) m grid grid
QPE-SUMS and QPF-MAPLE are derived from QPE-SUMS and QPF-MAPLE are derived from the mosaic resultsthe mosaic results
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Hybrid Scanning
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Multi-radar Multi-radar mosaic
example
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QPE-SUMS Algorithm QQuantitative uantitative PPrecipitation recipitation EEstimation and stimation and
SSegregation egregation UUsing sing MMultiple ultiple SSensorsensors Integrates radar, satellite, gauge, and numerical Integrates radar, satellite, gauge, and numerical
model datamodel data Can use QPE from polarization derived results (Kdp, Can use QPE from polarization derived results (Kdp,
Zdr, etc)Zdr, etc) Produces QPEs on high resolution gridProduces QPEs on high resolution grid Convective/stratiform and frozen/liquid segregation Convective/stratiform and frozen/liquid segregation
using satellite and model datausing satellite and model data Integrates satellite derived rainfall estimatesIntegrates satellite derived rainfall estimates Differential Z-R equationsDifferential Z-R equations Utilizes real-time rain gauge data to remove biases Utilizes real-time rain gauge data to remove biases
in radar estimatesin radar estimates Produces QPE products for past 72 hrsProduces QPE products for past 72 hrs
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Example of 3hr Total QPE
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
QPF Based on the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Forecasting Using Semi-
Lagrangian Extrapolation (QPF-MAPLE) Developed at McGill University, Montreal, Canada by Zawadski
and Germann over a period of several years
Provides forecasts of reflectivity out to 8 hours depending on scale and domain
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Sample MAPLE ForecastSample MAPLE Forecast
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HDSS in ItalyExample of a QPF-Maple 3 hr Rainfall Forecast
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Flash Flood Prediction Algorithm
Uses QPE-SUMs output to Uses QPE-SUMs output to automatically identify basins that are automatically identify basins that are approaching or exceeding Flash approaching or exceeding Flash Flood Guidance (FFG), out to 72 hrsFlood Guidance (FFG), out to 72 hrs
Uses output from QPF-Maple, added Uses output from QPF-Maple, added to QPE-SUMS, to determine what to QPE-SUMS, to determine what basins will approach or exceed FFG in basins will approach or exceed FFG in the next 3 hoursthe next 3 hours
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Basin Delineation Example with Rainfall Amounts
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Italy: Basins with Warnings
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FFG View and Edit Pages
March 14, 2006March 14, 2006 Intl FFF Workshop, Costa RicaIntl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica
Conclusions HDSS is a robust system well suited to operational HDSS is a robust system well suited to operational
hydromet applicationshydromet applications HDSS is installed at several locations both in the HDSS is installed at several locations both in the
US and internationallyUS and internationally HDSS integrates and processes radar, satellite, HDSS integrates and processes radar, satellite,
model, and surface datamodel, and surface data HDSS includes data quality control, radar mosaics, HDSS includes data quality control, radar mosaics,
QPE, QPF, and flash flood forecastingQPE, QPF, and flash flood forecasting HDSS can be adapted to any location worldwideHDSS can be adapted to any location worldwide HDSS can be run with single or dual-pol radarsHDSS can be run with single or dual-pol radars Future work includes:Future work includes:
Integration of numerical model data within QPF-MAPLEIntegration of numerical model data within QPF-MAPLE Integrate inundation mapping capabilityIntegrate inundation mapping capability Ongoing performance verification studies in Italy and the Ongoing performance verification studies in Italy and the
USUS