march 13, 2006 health care provides opportunity for progressives january 24, 2007 seiu/capaf survey...

March 13, 2006

Health Care Provides Opportunity for Progressives

January 24, 2007

SEIU/CAPAF Survey of Six Senate States, Eight House Districts – 11/07

Democracy Corps National Survey – 5/07

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |

Strong Base of Support for Reform

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Very Serious SeriousTotal

Serious

Rising health care costs 62 30 92

The federal deficit 51 32 83

Employers cutting back contributions for employees’ health insurance and pensions

46 38 84

Rising gasoline costs 45 33 78

The growing gap between the rich and everybody else 44 28 72

Job losses to China and India 39 36 75

The situation with home sales, foreclosures and house prices 38 37 75

High taxes 36 36 72

Stagnant wages and salaries and people squeezed by rising prices 33 33 66

Unemployment 21 36 57

For each issue I want you to tell me whether today you think it is a very serious problem, a serious problem, not too serious a problem, or not a problem at all in the current economy?

Rising health care costs most serious economic concern

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps poll conducted 9/16-9/18/07 of 1,000 likely voters nationwide.

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54

50

46

50

545352

56

62

48

35

45

55

65

Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07

Rising health care costs is a very serious problem

Over 60% see health care costs as a very serious problem in the economy

I am going to read you a list of issues relating to the economy. For each issue I want you to tell me whether today you think it is a very serious problem, a serious problem, not too serious a problem, or not a problem at all in the current economy?

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years.

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6761 61 60 59

5462 64 63 61 61 58 55 52

6875 75

8181818475767982

7584 79

ME NH LA OR VA

CO

PA-10

OH-15

NC-8

NY-25

NV-3

FL-16

WA-8

CA-4

Strongly support Support

Do you support or oppose reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans?

Overwhelming Majorities Support Health Care for All

Senate House

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Firm Supporters: Those who supported reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans “if it meant government taking a much larger role in our health care system” AND “that you would have to pay more in taxes.”

Conditional Supporters: Those who initially supported reform, but dropped their support in the face of greater government involvement OR higher taxes.

Firm Opponents: Those who opposed any reforms to current health care system.

Reform: Firm Supporters vs. Conditional Supporters

Would you support or oppose reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans… if it meant government taking a much larger role in our health care system… and if it meant that you would have to pay more in taxes?

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44

35

17

Firm Support Conditional Support Firm Oppose

Firm Support Conditional Support Firm Oppose

Senate: Supporters Offer Progressives an Opportunity Would you support or oppose reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans if it meant government taking a much larger role in our health care system [and] if it meant that you would have to pay more in taxes?

*Note: Data from combined run of six Senate seats.

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29

15

Favor Oppose

Strongly favor Somewhat favor

Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose

Strong Support For Universal Coverage With Mandates

+4368

25

Let me tell you about a proposal to reform the health care system in this country. This plan would require businesses to either cover their employees or make a contribution to a pool that help fund health care coverage for the uninsured. It would require all Americans to get health insurance and provide subsidies for Americans who could not afford it. It would also make insurance more affordable by creating new tax credits, expanding Medicaid and taking steps to contain health care costs. Having heard this, do you favor or oppose this proposal?

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2529

Favor Oppose

Strongly favor Somewhat favor

Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose

Voters Also Support a Single-Payer System

Let me tell you about a proposal to reform the health care system in this country. This plan would use what some people call a single-payer health care plan. Under this plan, you still would be able to see your own doctor, just like under Medicare, but the federal government would pay the health care costs for all Americans. This would require a significant tax increase, but all of your current health care costs and insurance premiums would be covered by the government. Having heard this, do you favor or oppose this proposal?

+1455

41

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But Split When Read Attack On Single-Payer

Statement 2: We need to make changes to our health care

system, but we cannot put it in the hands of the government. While health care accounts for 15 percent of our economy, a

government takeover is a radical move that will reduce

quality of care and eliminate a patient’s choice of doctor.

Statement 1: Now is the time for single payer health insurance that

is funded and administered by the U.S. government. This

Canadian-style system would guarantee affordable health care coverage for all Americans and

reduce costs by streamlining the administration of health care.

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right:

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29

35

Time for Single Payer Can't Put Health Care in Hands of Gov't

But Split When Read Attack On Single-Payer

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right:

-3

4649

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps national survey.

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Democrats Win Health Care Debate Big

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A Democratic plan that would guarantee affordable health insurance for all Americans. This plan would lower costs throughout the system, and allow people to choose between their current coverage or several private and public insurance options. Critics say this plan will cost too much and lead to higher taxes and government-run health care.

A Republican plan that would offer people tax credits and savings accounts to purchase private insurance and lower their costs in the private market. This plan would not require more government involvement in health care. Critics say this plan will leave millions of people without coverage or at risk of losing it and will only help wealthier Americans.

Democratic and Republican Approaches To Health Care

After hearing elements of both plans, which health care plan do you support more:

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 40

38

34

35

33

29

52

54

56

57

57

62

Lousiana

Colorado

Oregon

New Hampshire

Virginia

Maine

Republican Plan Democratic Plan


Senate: Democratic Plan Preferred in Key Races

+33

Net

+24

+22

+17

+12

+22

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38

36

34

29

46

54

55

55

62

CA-04

WA-8

FL-16

OH-15

NC-8

Republican Plan Democratic Plan


House: Democratic Plan Preferred in Key Races

+33

Net

+21

+19

+16

+2

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Cost and Choice Top List of Health Care Concerns and Values

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Costs: Health care costs are too high for American Families

Too Many Without Coverage: There are too many people without health coverage

Insurance Companies: Insurance companies have too much red tape and often deny necessary care

Malpractice Lawsuits: Malpractice lawsuits are putting doctors out of business

Government Involvement: There is too much government involvement in health care

Losing Coverage: It is too easy to lose your coverage at any time

Problems With The Current System

Thinking again about the American health care system, which of the following is the ONE biggest problem with the current system? (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 28

31

24

41

51

17

21

34

46

55

8

10

53

40

65

Governmentinvolvement

Malpracticelawsuits

Too many withoutcoverage

Insurancecompanies

Costs too high

Republicans Independents Democrats

Thinking again about the American health care system, which of the following is the ONE biggest problem with the current system? (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)

Senate: The Problem: Cost, Then Insurance Companies and Coverage


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Fundamental Right: Healthcare is a fundamental right – every American should be guaranteed coverage that can never be taken away

Choice of Doctors: Every American should have a choice of doctors and hospitals

Shared Responsibility: Individuals, businesses and government have a shared responsibility for covering health care costs

Should be Private: America’s health care system should be private and market-driven, not government run

Business Not Hurt: American businesses should not be hurt by health care costs

Values To Guide Reform

Thinking about health care reform, which ONE of the following values is the most important in guiding health care reform. (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)

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6

52

20

18

33

2

24

25

26

18

21

25

12

35

0 20 40 60

RepInd

DemRepInd

DemRepInd

DemRepInd

DemRepInd

Dem

Thinking about health care reform, which ONE of the following values is the most important in guiding health care reform. (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)

Senate: Health Care Values by Party: Choice is Key

Fundamental Right

Choice of Doctors

Shared Responsibility

Should be Private

Business Not Hurt


5955

5339

4743

6943

21

2749

1214

19

12

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

21

Lowering health care costs

Knowing I will always have health care coverage

Maintaining choices and seeing my own doctor

+32

Security of Coverage Most Important to Personal Priorities

+19

Improving quality

+17

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps national survey.

Thinking about your own health care priorities, which is more important to you?

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Democratic Elements Popular

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Strongly Support

Total Support

Require insurance companies to offer coverage at a fair price, regardless of age, medical history, or pre-existing condition

63 84

Give all Americans a choice of keeping what they have now or joining a national insurance pool that offers a choice of private and public plans, including the same options that Members of Congress receive

44 75

Provide refundable tax credits to ensure that no one pays more than 5 to 7 percent of their income on health insurance

43 75

Expand Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Plan to cover all low-income Americans

43 70

Require all businesses to provide health care for their employees or contribute to a fund to help pay for their coverage

42 70

Give all Americans a choice of keeping what they have now or joining a national insurance pool that offers a choice of private and public plans, including a plan like Medicare

40 73

Now I'd like to read you some elements from a health care plan proposed by the Democrats in Congress. Please tell me if you support or oppose each of these elements

House: Key Elements of Democratic Plan

*Note: Data from combined run of eight House seats.

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Strongly Support

Total Support

Provide tax credits for lower income families to help them afford coverage

48 79

Reform malpractice laws to rein in frivolous lawsuits against doctors 46 73

Expand the use of Health Savings Accounts that allow families to set aside some money to pay health expenses tax-free

44 74

Deregulate insurance markets by allowing people to shop for insurance across state lines

42 74

Provide families up to a 15,000 dollar tax deduction to help them afford coverage

38 71

Offer block grants to states to encourage them to develop their own innovative solutions

21 57

Now I'd like to read you some elements from a health care plan proposed by the Republicans in Congress. Please tell me if you support or oppose each of these elements

House: Republican Elements


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Democratic Messages Generally Outperform GOP Messages

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Security: In the current system it is too easy to lose your coverage at any time. Under our plan, families will have the security of knowing that if they become ill or lose their jobs they will never lose their coverage

Discrimination: Under the current system, Americans are at the mercy of insurance companies. Our plan gives the power back to the American people and prohibits insurance companies from discriminating and denying coverage.

Universal Coverage: 47 million Americans lack health insurance. We have a moral obligation to change that an our plan does. We will make sure every man, woman and child has coverage they can afford.

Bureaucracy/Choice: Our plan build on the private system we now have. It preserves full choice of your plan and your doctor and it does so without creating any new government bureaucracy.

Top 4 Democratic Messages

Let me read you some statements Democrats in Congress make in support of their health care plan. Please tell me if each statement would make you more or less likely to support the Democratic plan. (Messages paraphrased)

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Tort Reform: The explosion of frivolous lawsuits forces doctors to practice defensive medicine and drives up cost. By ending lawsuit abuse we will bring the cost of medicine down and let doctors get back to work.

Affordability: Under our plan, if your family buys its own insurance you can deduct $15,000 from your taxes. This will mean real financial relief and make health insurance more affordable for American families.

Individual Choice: It’s your health, you should make your own decisions. Our plan empowers Americans to make their own choices to families can purchase as much or as little private insurance as they need.

Markets: Our plan promotes a private system. By empowering million of Americans to make their own decisions, the free market will accomplish what the government can’t – lower costs and higher quality.

Republican Messages

Let me read you some statements Republicans in Congress make in support of their health care plan. Please tell me if each statement would make you more or less likely to support the Republican plan. (Messages paraphrased)

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61

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66

29

41

36

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55

23

28

50

57

45

32

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1500% 3500% 5500% 7500%

Democratic Messages - Much/Smwht Democratic Messages - MuchRepublican Messages - Much/Smwht Republican Messages - Much

House: Democratic Messages Resonating

Dem

ocra

tic

Mes

sage

s

Discrimination

Security

Markets

Bureaucracy/Choice

Universal Coverage

Tort Reform

Affordability

Individual Choice

Rep

ublic

an

Mes

sage

s

Let me read you some statements Democrats/Republicans in Congress make in support of their health care plan. Please tell me if each statement would make you more or less likely to support the Democratic plan. (Percent Responding Much/Somewhat More Likely)


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Dem Attacks Perform Well. GOP Immigration Attack Potent, Must Be Addressed

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Doesn’t Fix The Problem: The Republican plan doesn't actually fix the problem. It won't provide coverage for the 47 million Americans without insurance and it won't reduce costs for the average American. The only thing it does is give big tax shelters to the very wealthy .

Helps The Wrong People: The Republican plan will be great for the healthiest and wealthiest Americans, but it will leave most Americans in dire straits. Most Americans would see few benefits from the Republicans' tax incentives, and those who need the most help affording coverage could see the few option they have now disappear.

Greed and Risk: The Republican plan would create an every-man-for-himself system dominated by profit and greed. It will leave you at the mercy of big insurance companies, who will favor the wealthy and healthy over the middle-class and those most in need of care

In the Pocket of Insurance Companies: The Republicans have taken millions of dollars from the big insurance companies. When they were in charge of Congress and the White House they did nothing to fix the system and now they are trying to stop meaningful reform in order to protect insurance company profits

Top 4 Democratic Health Care Attacks

Let me read you some criticisms some people make about the Republicans' health care plan. Please tell me whether these statements raise very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republican candidate's plan.

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Immigration: The Democrats want to expand government health insurance to everyone, including illegal immigrants and their families. Their plan would raise your taxes to help pay for a new benefit for those in this country illegally

Tax and Spend: The Democrats' plan will cost over 100 billion a year. They admit that, to pay for it, they will raise taxes. This means you will end up paying more, not less, for health care

Government Run: The Democrats want Washington bureaucrats to run our health care system. They'd put the people who managed Katrina and Walter Reed in charge of your health care.

Socialism: The Democrats don't believe in free markets or the American people. Instead, they believe in a government-run socialist system that promotes "one-size-fits all" health care, waiting lists like they have in France, and a destruction of private medicine

Top 4 Republican Health Care Attacks

Let me read you some criticisms some people make about the Democrats’ health care plan. Please tell me whether these statements raise very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about the Democratic candidate's plan.

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Debate Favors Democrats

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Vertical Generic

4648

4441

Initial Final

Democrat Republican

Question wording text goes in a box like this

Net: +2 Net: +7

House: Marginal Vote Shift Towards Democrats

Let me ask you again, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in 2008, if the election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic Candidate) or (Republican Candidate)?

Overall Vulnerable/Winnables*Note: Data from combined run of eight House districts. For each state, where each party’s candidate has already been clearly determined, that candidate’s name was inserted. Where the candidate has not been clearly determined, “Democratic candidate” or “Republican candidate” was inserted instead.

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Conclusions

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Democrats Poised To Formulate Dominant Position…

Strong base of support for comprehensive reform -- health care for all

Democrats dominate big picture debate -- solving the big problems (cost, insurance companies and lost coverage)

Poised to win values debate too – fundamental right, choice and shared responsibility

Most Democratic proposals, messages are powerful

Offset Republican attacks on choice, tax and immigration.

Engaging in debate moves electorate

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march 13, 2006 health care provides opportunity for progressives january 24, 2007 seiu/capaf survey...

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