marcel caron - prospectus defense - december 2016 - final pdf

NOAH LAND SURFACE MODEL – MP UPGRADE A Performance Evaluation of the Noah-MP

Land Surface Model

Marcel Caron Undergraduate Student, University of MD, College Park

Advised by E. Hugo Berbery, Ph. D.

Director, CICS-MD

Omar V. Müller CEVARCAM

December 8, 2016

Goals

Ø  Does Noah-‐MP improve mesoscale forecasts? Ø  Conduct qualita-ve and quan-ta-ve analyses of the

Noah-‐MP LSM forecast performance using a coupled system Ø  Understand skill and biases of temperature and precipita-on

simula-ons over CONUS Ø  Compare Noah-‐MP and Noah v3.4 simula-ons

Ø  Support implementa.on of Noah-‐MP in Next Genera.on Global Predic.on System (NGGPS)

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NOAA

N: Na-onal Centers for Environmental Predic-on (NCEP) O: Oregon State University -‐ Dpt. AOS A: Air Force H: Hydrology Lab -‐ NWS

Noah LSM processes: Ø  Heat fluxes Ø  Radia-on fluxes Ø  Momentum exchange Ø  Hydrological Cycle

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NCAR, 2004

LSM – Land Surface Model

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Noah “MP”

Inclusion of Land Surface Processes in NWP

Solid Black: Pre-‐2005 GFS Dashed: GFS w LSM upgrade

Bias Score

Gilbert S

kill Score

“24-‐hour precip. threshold (in.)”

“24-‐hour precip. threshold (in.)”

Mitchell et al., 2005

Land Surface Model MoBvaBon: Ø  Land Surface Processes Quan-fied Ø  Quan--es provided to parent model… Ø  …as Lower Boundary Condi-on to mesoscale NWP models

5 USGS 30-‐second global 24-‐category vegeta-on (land-‐use) data, ORNL

Key input Ø  Land use type Ø  Soil texture Ø  Slope

Derived from Remote Sensing Data (AVHRR)

Data for This Project Ø  Noah/WRF-‐NMM coupled

system Ø  Original research version of

WRF-‐NMM released in 2003 Ø  Boundary Condi-ons

provided by NAM

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Noah LSM

NAM

NAM

NMM – NonHydrosta9c Mesoscale Model

NOAA, DTC, 2014

Previous version: Noah v 3.4 Ø  Root uptake from Water Table Ø  Vegeta-on + soil layer Ø  Snow + soil layer

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[2012 Average of Monthly Precip. Totals]

Observed LS Data [NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD] Noah 3.4/ WRF 3.5 Data

millimeters

Niu et al., 2011

Now: Noah “MP” Upgrade Baseline Noah LSM with op-ons that allow for: Ø  Water Table depth esBmates Ø  Mul9-‐layer snow and canopy

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[2012 Average of Monthly Precip. Totals]

Observed LS Data [NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD] Noah-‐MP 1.1/WRF 3.5 Data

millimeters

MP – Mul9parameteriza9on

Niu et al., 2011

Water Table Concept

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Ø  Moisture Flux Ø  Soil Moisture Ø  Transpira-on Ø  Evapora-on Ø  Runoff (Surface

+ Underground) Ø  Groundwater

Transfer Ø  Root Uptake

Water Table Concept

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Ø  Moisture Flux Ø  Soil Moisture Ø  Transpira-on Ø  Evapora-on Ø  Runoff (Surface



WATER TABLE

Water Table Concept

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Ø  Moisture Flux Ø  Soil Moisture Ø  TranspiraBon? Ø  EvaporaBon Ø  Runoff (Surface



WATER TABLE Yuan et. al, 2008

Methodology: First Steps Ø  Qualita-ve Comparison, 30-‐Year Average to 2012

Ø  Iden-fy Observed 2012 Anomalies Ø  Key Features we want to see in Noah-‐MP/WRF simula-ons

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NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD Data °Celsius

Observed Mean JJA Temperature (°C) 1982 – 2012 Average 2012

Methodology ConBnued

Ø  QualitaBve Analysis: Anomaly Fields Ø  QuanBtaBve Analysis: Root Mean Squared Error Ø  Annual, Summer, Winter Ø  Temperature & Precipita-on

13 hhp://www.clipartkid.com/images/808/up-‐north-‐trees-‐clip-‐art-‐at-‐clker-‐com-‐vector-‐clip-‐art-‐online-‐royalty-‐0MXeeV-‐clipart.png

Value For This Project

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NCAR’s Research Data Archive NWS’s Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory

Ø  Noah-‐LSM in NWP: Ø  NAM (short-‐range, 12km) Ø  GFS (med-‐range, 24km) Ø  CFS (long-‐range/seasonal)

Ø  Future: Ø  Next GeneraBon Global PredicBon System (NGGPS) -‐ 2018

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Does Noah-‐MP improve mesoscale forecasts?

Ø  Given physics upgrades, we expect it to Ø  Areas of Deteriora-on?

Ø  Methods for analysis will aim to gain quanBtaBve and qualitaBve understanding of changes

Ø  NGGPS will run with Noah-‐MP in 2018

References Cai, X. et al., Hydrological evalua-on of the Noah-‐MP land surface model for the Mississippi River Basin, J. Geophys. Res.-‐Atmos., 119, 1, 23-‐38, doi:

10.1002/2013JD020792, 2014. Clark, M. P., D. Kavetski, and F. Fenicia, Pursuing the method of mul-ple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling, Water Resour. Res., 47,

W09301, doi:10.1029/2010WR009827, 2011. De Ridder, K. and Schayes, G., The IAGL Land Surface Model, J. Appl. Meteor., 36, 167-‐182, doi: 10.1175/1520-‐0450(1997)036<01667:TILSM>2.0.CO;2,

1997. Dirmeyer, P. A., et al. Land Surface Modeling in Support of Numerical Weather Predic-on and Sub-‐Seasonal Climate Predic-on, Cola/GMU, hhp://

cola.gmu.edu/lsm/GMU_KIAPS_White_Paper.pdf, 2013. Ek, M. B. and Jasper, M.: Land Surface Modeling (presenta-on). hhp://slideplayer.com/slide/3852992/, 2015. Ek, M. B., et al. Implementa-on of Noah land surface model advances in the Na-onal Centers for Environmental Predic-on opera-onal mesoscale Eta

model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, D22, doi: 10.1029/2002JD003296, 2003. Luo, Y., Berbery, E. H., and Mitchell, K. E. The Opera-onal Eta Model Precipita-on and Surface Hydrologic Cycle of the Columbia and Colorado Basins,

J. Hydrometeo., 6, 341-‐370, doi: 10.1175/JHM435.1, 2005. Mitchell, K. et al. NCEP Implements Major Upgrade to Its Medium-‐Range Global Forecast System, Including Land-‐Surface Component, GEWEX, 15, 4, 8-‐9,

hhp://www.gewex.org/gewex-‐content/files_mf/1432207652Nov2005.pdf#page=8 2005. Murray, S. J., I. M. Watson, and I. C. Pren-ce, The use of dynamic global vegeta-on models for simula-ng hydrology and the poten-al integra-on of

satellite observa-ons, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 37(1), 63–97, doi: 10.1177/0309133312460072, 2013. Niu, G.-‐Y., et al. The community Noah land surface model with mul-parameteriza-on op-ons (Noah-‐MP): 1. Model descrip-on and evalua-on with

local-‐scale measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12109, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015139, 2011. NOAA, Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), User’s Guide for the NMM Core of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System Version 3,

Chapter 5: WRF NMM Model, www.dtcenter.org/wrf-‐nmm/users/docs/user_guide/V3/users_guide_nmm_chap5.pdf, 2014. Teuling, A. J., et al. Contras-ng response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 3, 722-‐727, doi: 10.1038/

ngeo950, 2010. Yang, Z.-‐L., et al., The community Noah land surface model with mul-parameteriza-on op-ons (Noah-‐MP): 2. Evalua-on over global river basins, J.

Geophys. Res., 116, D12110, doi:10.1029/2010JD015140, 2011.

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Extra: Current Progress Annual Cycle Comparison – PrecipitaBon, Total Monthly (mm)

Extra: EvaluaBng Model Performance: ConBngency Tables

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False Alarm

Correct Nega-ve

Hit Miss

Modeled Observed

Shuherstock Image

Extra: EvaluaBng Model Performance: ConBngency Tables

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Fowler et al., 2012

Extra: Comparing Theory to ObservaBon

Ø  Previous test regions Ø  River Basins Ø  Hydrological Cycle

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Müller et. al, 2016

Extra: Comparison of Noah v3.5 and Noah-‐

MP Features Noah v. 3.5 Noah-‐MP

Vegeta-on + soil combined layer Canopy Layers op-on

Snowpack + soil combined layer Snow Pack Layers op-on

Groundwater Transfer & Storage

Permeable Frozen Soil

Ball-‐Berry Stomatal Resistance

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Extra: MODIS Land Cover Type Product (MCD12Q1)

Ø  Maps global land cover Ø  Categorized into Land Surface Type

Ø  Uses MODIS spectral and temporal data Ø  Incl. reflectance, land surface temperature

Ø  Input “database is a ‘living’ database”

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Friedl et al., 2012

marcel caron - prospectus defense - december 2016 - final pdf

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