marc appleby - the 7 deadly sins every gm should avoid
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The 7 ‘Deadly’
Sins Every GM
What NHL Teams can learn from over GM
Should Avoid
can learn from over 14,000 wins
• PowerScout research overview
Areas Covered
• The two major findings
• The 7 deadly sins
• A look at the Oilers this year
The research began in the early 80’s
Terry Appleby created and produced the critically acclaimed board game Canadian Pro Football in
1975 and National Pro Hockey (NPH) in 1985. It was in the development of NPH that Terry began
his statistical research into all aspects of hockey including player performance. Both games were
produced and sold until 1991.
Terry asked “If we want players that help our team ‘win’, why don’t we measure them that way?”
The inspiration…Edmonton Journal October 28, 1998
Mark Spector’s article inspired
Terry to shift his research to
finding out why teams win.
Once he found the winning
patterns, he began measuring patterns, he began measuring
the true value & performance
of every skater based on doing
the ‘right’ things for his position
to help his team win.
The creation of the real-time
scoring system (RTSS) in
1997, and specifically player
ice-time, allowed his research
to go to the next level.
PowerScout analyzes hockey by focusing on the proven patterns for winning.
Using our key research findings, we create analytical and
technology solutions that help hockey managers & coaches at every hockey level maximize assets and build winning teams.
� Research by retired economist Terry Appleby
� Over 30 years of statistics research into hockey
� Over 14 years studying winning NHL teams
� 20-yr member of Society of American Baseball Research
Major findings come from a multi-variable linear regression on all games since 1998:
� 14,000+ NHL games� 14,000+ NHL games
� 12,000+ player performances
� 28,000+ goalie performances
R2 = 0.84
Major Finding #1
Each position has a different
Center
17% (14)
Defensive
Left
Winger
10% (8)
Offensive
Right
Winger
10% (8)
has a different importance to
winning
Defensive
Defenceman
16% (12)
Goaltender
27% (22)
Offensive
Defenceman
20% (18)
Positions are displayed with their average
importance to winning (%), as well as their
average points contributed in the standings
on an average (0.500) team (82 points).
Major Finding #2
Each skill has a different importance at each skating position
What skills?What skills?
Evaluating Skaters
A 12 skills approach
to rating a player’s
value, performance,
and his positional
impact on winning.
Some skills are
positive, some
negative …depends
on the position.
*** = high impact on winning
** = moderate impact on winning
* = low impact on winning
Evaluating Goaltenders
Eleven stats are combined
to measure every goalie
game performance.
From this ‘superstat’, we
determine how much of determine how much of
the 2 team points for
each win is due to the
goalie’s performance, and
then the skaters on the
winning team split the
rest.
This is how Point Shares
are calculated.
• PS: actual point shares = CONTRIBUTION• Points in the standings earned by his own performance and ice-time
• MAX: maximum point shares = IMPACT
‘Point Shares’ Player Evaluation System
(skaters & goalies are compared directly using the following 4 metrics)
• Theoretical points in the standings he’d earn if he played 60min/gm for 82 games
• Compares all players directly, regardless of playing on good/bad team, and takes into account the different position importance
• PAR: point shares above replacement = PERFORMANCE• Points in the standings he’d earn over a season over a replacement player (80% of avg)
• Compares all players directly and excludes the position importance
• MVP: most valuable player = VALUE• % more points in the standings earned versus a replacement player at his position
Sin #1:
Overestimating the difference in value between
average and top-tier goalies
OROR
Key Findings:
• Goaltending position is on average worth 27% to winning
• Best goaltenders perform ~15% better over a season than an average goalie
Sin #2:
Under-estimating the value of a puck-moving dman
AND
Key Findings:
• “Bobby Orr Effect” added 3.5 wins to defence position
• Offensive defencemen as a position on average worth 20% to winning
• Defensive defencemen as a position on average worth 16% to winning
Sin #3:
Underestimating the value of passing at defence,
but overestimating the value of hitting
OROR
Key Findings:
• Passing at defence (assists) are worth 10% of winning (most important skill of all positions)
• Every 8 assists at defence = 1 point in the standings
• Toughness (hits) at defence are worth 1%....most important at center, then wing
Sin #4:
Underestimating the value of aggressive shooting
from centers, while overestimating passing
OROR
Key Findings:
• Shots from centers are worth 3.6% to winning, goals worth 3.2%, assists <1%
• Every 23 shots at center yields 1 point in the standings
Sin #5:
Underestimating the value of speed on the wing,
and overestimating the value of experience
OROR
Key Findings:
• Speed at wing contributes 2% to winning (offensive defencemen is 3%)
• Production decline with experience at wing likely due to ‘punishment’ at that position
• Defencemen get 15% better each yr with experience, center get 5% (up to 400 games)
Sin #6:
Overestimating the effectiveness of building a
team's attack through the wing position
OROR
Key Findings:
• Winger on average only contribute 10% to winning due to sub-optimal angle for shots to
the net, and confined mobility by the boards = LESS IMPACTFUL POSITION
• Shooting accuracy is critical at wing as it is 3% of winning
Sin #7:
Overestimating the value of the power play, and underestimating the penalty-kill
Key Findings:
• Even-strength is on average 54% of winning, Penalty kill is 36% and Power play is 10%
• Penalties by players are a negative skill (discipline) with importance of 1.6% to ‘winning’
Top Oiler MVPs this year
Rank Player Pos MVP PS PAR MAX GP G A Pts
1 EBERLE RW 5.8% 5.4 5.8 36 78 34 42 76
2 HALL LW 3.4% 3.8 5.4 31 61 27 26 53
3 NUGENT-HOPKINS C 1.8% 3.6 4 29 62 18 34 52
4 HORCOFF C 1.0% 3.3 1.6 19 81 13 21 34
League Rank: Eberle 25th, Hall 92nd, RNH 156th
RNH tied with Henrique and Read for top rookie MVP, Landeskog 4th
4 HORCOFF C 1.0% 3.3 1.6 19 81 13 21 34
5 PETRY D 0.9% 4.8 3.2 28 73 2 23 25
6 GAGNER C 0.5% 2.6 1.2 18 75 18 29 47
7 SMYTH LW 0.2% 1.7 0.6 10 82 19 27 46
8 WHITNEY D 0.1% 4.3 6.3 36 51 3 17 20
Top League MVPs this year
Rank Player Pos Team MVP PS GP G A Pts
1 STAMKOS C TB 14.5% 13.5 82 60 37 97
2 CAMPBELL D FLA 12.1% 14 82 4 49 53
3 KARLSSON D OTT 10.5% 12.6 81 19 59 78
4 WIDEMAN D WAS 10.1% 12.7 82 11 35 464 WIDEMAN D WAS 10.1% 12.7 82 11 35 46
5 MALKIN C PIT 9.6% 11.8 75 50 59 109
6 SUTER D NSH 9.4% 13.3 79 7 39 46
7 BOYLE D SJ 8.1% 10.9 81 9 39 48
8 CHARA D BOS 7.9% 11.5 79 12 40 52
9 KOVALCHUK LW NJ 7.8% 8.4 77 37 46 83
10 STAAL C CAR 7.7% 8.1 82 24 46 70
Tom Gilbert TradeMaker Analysis(results based on different position/skills importance)
Jim Matheson, Edmonton
Journal - Apr21, 2012
“Tom Gilbert went from being
a top 4 D-men here to No. 1
dog in Minnesota, playing 27
minutes on average in his 20
games there after the trade games there after the trade
deadline deal (Feb27) for Nick
Schultz.”
“Gilbert’s the reason they
didn’t get a draft lottery
pick,” said a source close to
the Wild. “He was incredibly
good. They won some games
down the stretch because of
him.” The Wild will pick
seventh in June.
Remember this Oiler game?February 2, 2012 Sam Gagner’s 8-point game
Real-time
Shot Momentum
Real-Time
Game Dominance
Real-time Momentum/Dominance
also showcased on
Thank youIf you have any questions:
Marc ApplebyMarc Appleby
CEO
www.powerscouthockey.com