mapping the zone: improving flood map accuracy david maidment, chair gerry galloway briefing for...
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Mapping the Zone: Improving Mapping the Zone: Improving Flood Map AccuracyFlood Map Accuracy
David Maidment, ChairGerry Galloway
Briefing for FEMAJanuary 15, 2009
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Committee Charge: Task 33. Investigate the impact that various study components (i.e.,
variables) have on the mapping of flood inundation boundaries:
a. Riverine flooding – The accuracy of digital terrain information
– Hydrologic uncertainties in determining the flood discharge
– Hydraulic uncertainties in converting the discharge into a flood water surface elevation
b. Coastal flooding– The accuracy of the digital terrain information
– Uncertainties in the analysis of the coastal flood elevations
c. Interconnected ponds (e.g., Florida)– The accuracy of the digital terrain information
– Uncertainties in the analysis of flood elevations
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Committee Membership
David Maidment, Chair, University of TexasDavid Brookshire, University of New MexicoJ. William Brown, City of Greenville, South CarolinaJohn Dorman, State of North CarolinaGerald Galloway, University of MarylandBisher Imam, University of California, IrvineWendy Lathrop, Cadastral ConsultingDavid Maune, DewberryBurrell Montz, Binghamton UniversitySpencer Rogers, North Carolina Sea GrantKaren Schuckman, Pennsylvania State UniversityY. Peter Sheng, University of FloridaJuan Valdes, University of Arizona
PractitionersAcademicsGeodesyHydrologyCoastalEconomicsRisk
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Previous NRC Studies:Flood Map Technologies (2007)
• An examination of the accuracy of flood base map input data – 2D imagery and
planimetrics
– 3D elevation
• Prompted by issues raised by Senate Appropriations Committee staff
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21% of population has maps meeting the floodplain boundary standard and engineering study
standard
Adjusted goal: 92% of population and 65% of land area will have a modernized map
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Flood MapsRiverine Coastal
Two very different flood modeling and mapping
problems
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Riverine Flood Mapping
• Modeling and mapping technology is well established
• Supported by a large observation database at stream gages
• Floods flow along the line of the stream gages
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Coastal Flood Mapping
• Modeling and mapping technology and guidance are evolving
• Storm surges inland transverse to the line of tide gages
• Large dependence on models, less on historical flood data
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Terrain data accuracy matters
USGS NED (30m) NCFMP Lidar (3m)
Inundation for a 1ft storm surge or sea level rise in the Tar-Pamlico estuary (Source:
USGS)
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Lidar of inundated water surface elevation during Iowa flood (2008)
Source: University of Iowa and National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping
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Three systems for measuring elevation
Orthometric heights(land surveys, geoid)
Ellipsoidal heights(lidar, GPS)
Tidal heights(Sea water level)
Conversion among these height systems has some uncertainty
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Trends in Tide Levels(coastal flood risk is changing)
Charleston, SC+ 1.08 ft/century
- 4.16 ft/century+ 2.13 ft/century
Juneau, AK
Galveston, TX
1900 2000
1900 2000
1900 2000
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Importance of geodetic datumsNAVD88 – NGVD29 (cm)
NAVD88 higher in
West
NGVD29 higher in East
Orthometric datum height shifts are significant relative to BFE accuracy, so standardization on NAVD88 is
justified
More than 1 meter difference
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North Carolina Case Studies http://www.ncfloodmaps.com/program_review.htm
H&H and Economics
H&H
Economics
(H&H = Hydrology and Hydraulics)
Mountains of Western NC
Rolling hills of Piedmont
Flat coastal plain
Studies done for the NRC Committee by the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program (NCFMP)
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One River Reach studied in detail in each region
(each reach 5-7 miles long)
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Terrain Data for Case Studies
USGS DEMs (30m) NCFPM Lidar (3m)
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NED - Lidar Feet
Mean -2.0
Standard deviation 17.5
Maximum 89.7
Minimum -139.3
Lidar is higher(purple)
NED is higher(green)
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NED - Lidar Feet
Mean 14.7Standard deviation 15.6
Maximum 81.5
Minimum - 46.0
NED is higher(green)
An elevation “bust”Systematic and random errors
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NED - Lidar Feet
Mean 0.5
Standard deviation 3.9
Maximum 34.8
Minimum -25.3
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Terrain Data
• Our study demonstrates that there are large differences between LIDAR and NED– Random differences everywhere– Systematic differences in some places
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Defining Uncertainty in BFELong term records of extreme stages recorded at USGS gages
At each gage the peak stage is recorded for each year along with the peak flow – do a frequency
analysis of these.
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Frequency Analysis of Stage Heights at 31 gages
21 gages in NC
10 gages in FLAll gages have at
least 20 years record
(average is 54 years)
6
87
Is pitted FL landscape different?
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Produced using the Corps HEC-SSP Program (Bulletin 17-B standard procedure)
Base flood discharge
Swannanoa River at Biltmore, NC (78 years of record)
T =
10
0 y
ears
Dis
charg
e (
cfs)
Annual Exceedence Probability
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Uncertainty in BFE = Uncertainty in 100-year stage height
Swannanoa River at Biltmore, NC (78 years of record)
T =
10
0 y
ears
Sta
ge (
ft)
Annual Exceedence Probability
5% CL
95% CL
29.3
%5%95 CLCL Sampling error =
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Sampling Error of 100-year Stage Heights
Average = 1.06 ft
Outlier (skewed frequency curve)
No systematic variation in sampling error by drainage area or topographic region
Drainage Area (Sq miles)
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Uncertainty in BFE• BFE and Base Stage Height
differ by a constant amount (gage datum – geodetic datum)
• This doesn’t affect uncertainty of statistical variation of sample data around the 100-year estimate
• Average value of sample error at 30 of 31 gage sites is 1.06 ft
• A Lower Bound on the uncertainty of the BFE is a standard error of estimate of approximately one foot
BFE, h
Geodetic datum
Gage datum
Base Stage Height
5% CL
95% CL
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Uncertainty in Floodplain Boundary Location
h
w
dwdh
dw/dh = Run/RiseCounty Lateral
slope (%)Run/rise (ft)
Ahoskie Creek 2.4 42
Long Creek 9.8 10
Swannanoa River
12.9 8
Lateral channel slope is calculated on HEC-RAS cross-sections at the point of intersection of water surface with land surface (left and right banks) and averaged for all cross-sections in the reach
A Lower Bound on the uncertainty of the floodplain boundary location ranges from approximately 8ft in the mountains to approximately 40 ft in the coastal
plain
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Hydrologic and Hydraulic Methods
Hydrology Hydraulics Mapping
100-yr Discharge Base Flood Elevation
Floodplain Map
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USGS Peak-FlowRegression Equations
for 100-year discharge
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Age of Rural Peak Flow Regression Equations
Need for equations to follow basin rather than state boundaries
Some equations are old
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Effect on BFE of Variation in Hydrologic Methods(Long Creek, Mecklenburg County)
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Effect of Hydrologic methods on BFE
• Choice of hydrologic method affects the BFE by usually less than 1 foot
• All methods in our study are calibrated to the gage frequency curve and all our reaches have a gage, so gage calibration dominates variation in hydrologic methods
• Stream gage data are important
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Hydraulic Model Uncertainties
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Case Study: Hydraulic Model-Terrain Variants
Detailed Limited Detailed
Approximate
(lidar)
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Effect on BFE of variation in hydraulic methods and terrain data (Swannanoa River)
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Effect on BFE of variation in hydraulic methods and terrain data (Ahoskie Creek)
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Effect on BFE of variation in hydraulic methods and terrain data (Long Creek)
Approximate Study using NED
21 ft
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Approximate Study BFE ProfilesApproximate - Lidar Approximate - NED
Misalignment (100 – 200 ft) of mapped 2D planimetric streamline with NED 3D elevation data
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Flood Hazard Zone Areas• At Ahoskie Creek and
Swannanoa River the number of acres enclosed in the SFHA by Detailed and Approximate studies differs by < 1%
• Difference at Long Creek = 20%
Detailed - lidar
Approximate-NEDApproximate studies give the same area of flood zone but a different shape
Detailed - NED
Swannanoa River
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Interconnected Ponds (e.g. Florida)• Gage study showed that
BFE uncertainty in Florida rivers is similar to NC
• Many complex hydrologic issues inherent in how water reaches river from a ponded landscape
• Needs a separate study
Data from SWFWMD
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Overarching Finding
1. Topographic data is the most important factor in determining water surface elevations, base flood elevation, and the extent of flooding, and thus the accuracy of flood maps in riverine areas
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Coastal Flood Mapping
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Coastal Flood Mapping Transects
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Risk and Floodplain Mapping
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Risk
Risk = p x cp = probability (hazard, system)c = consequences
Risk = p x cnp = probability (h, s)c = consequencesn = variable related to social values
The probability of an event multiplied by the consequences if
the event occurs
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Risk Maps
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Conclusions• Riverine
– Elevation, elevation, elevation
• Coastal– Inundation process is complex
• Economics– Base flood elevations are worth it
• Risk– Better maps can provide good risk information