mapping climate change and security in north africa

8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa

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CLIMATE & ENERGY PAPER SERIES 2010

MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE AND

SECURITY IN NORTH AFRICA

JOSHUA BUSBY, KAIBA WHITE, AND TODD G. SMITH


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2010 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

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Mapping Climate Change and Securityin North Africa

Climate & Energy Policy Paper Series

October 2010

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Sources: Authors calculations based on the Social Confict in Arica Database andUNEP/GRIO-Europe


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Source: Global Migrant Origin Database 2007

FIGURE 4


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Source: Authors calculation based on data rom GlobalMigrant Origin Database 2010


16/48


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Percent change

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Emigration due

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2020 Total To Europe 2050 Total To Europe

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S -.37 34 9 -3.3 55 4

S -.9 9 -.9 38 7

T .5 - - -.66 7 44 N A

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A-w v -.84 ,573 485 -.4 9,66 ,9

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TABLE 1

Estimates of Future Migration Due to Crop Yields

Source: Authors calculations based on crop-yield projections rom Rosenzweig and Iglesias 2009, population projections romUN Population Fund and elasticity rom Feng et al. 2010


17/48


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Sources: Calculations by the authors based on data rom the Global Terrorism Data-base and UNEP/GRIO-Europe


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Country Number of

Disasters

Number of

Floods

Number of

Droughts

Number of

Storms

Max.

Killed

Max. Total

Affected

Max.

Homeless

A 3 5 3 9 () 45,43 () 3, ()

C 9 () 8, () 45, ()

Dj 7 5 5 () 34, () ,5 ()

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E 4 .3 ()

E 4 34 6 498 () .6 ()

79,()

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M 6 3 3 5 () () 4,586 ()

M 4 5 () () , ()

M 9 5 73 () 75, ()

N 3 9 3 7 () 3.58 ()

46,47 ()

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T 4 4 6 () 7, () =, =, w= wv

TABLE 2

1995-2008 Climate-Related Disasters in North Africa

Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database


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Climate-Related Hazard Exposure Data


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26/48


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Africa-Wide Household and Community Resilience Data


27/48


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Variable Indicator (weight) Source Year(s)

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TABLE 5

Governance and Political Violence Data

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B48Ew.

A-M, I. . E. I

Climate Change and National Security, D.

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AN. 7. Niger-Mali Tuareg Unrest, M 9

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Bk, M. 7. Climate Change - the

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B, Hv, N P G, O

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B, J. 7. C C N

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mapping climate change and security in north africa

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