manual for building ahp decision models

8/9/2019 Manual for Building AHP Decision Models

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TUTORIAL ON HIERARCHICALDECISION MODELS (AHP)

TABLE OF CONTENTS(Hyperlinked – Hold Ctrl key and Left Click on a topic to jump to it)

TUTORIAL ON HIERARCHICAL DECISION MODELS (AHP).........................................I

TABLE OF CONTENTS.....................................................................................................I

TUTORIAL FOR THE SUPERDECISIONS SOFTWARE.................................................3

PART 1. How to useSuperDecisions to Build AHP Hierarchical Decision Models. .3Installing the SuperDecisions Software!

Introduction to Basic Concepts................................................................................................4

Clusters and "lements#Showing the $airwise Comparisons for the Criteria with respect to the %oal&

Differentiating 'etween jecti*es and Criteria+Eercise !ne " Buildin# a Hierarchical Model........................................................................$

Creating a ,odel to $ick the 'est -acation $lace+Create %oal. Criteria and /lternati*e Clusters+Create the "lements inside the Clusters00Connect the "lements0!

1he Completed ,odel0#Sa*ing 2our ,odel0#

/ssessments 3 $airwise Comparisons *er*iew045uestionnaire ,ode0& 6umerical or ,atri7 ,ode08-eral 9udgment ,ode0:%raphical 9udgment ,ode0:,iscellaneous ,enu in Comparisons ;indow0+"ntering Direct $riorities0+Changing the $aired Comparison 1ype<=Checking Inconsistency<=

,enu for Checking Inconsistency in Comparison ;indow<0,aking the 9udgments<0

9udge the criteria with respect to the %oal node<09udge the /lternati*es with respect to each of the Criteria 6odes<<Checking completed comparisons<<-iew with >Show Connections? Icon 1urned on<<

Synthesis @ %etting the Aesults<!Aesults from the Synthesis Command<!

i



Sensiti*ity<#pening Screen in Sensiti*ity ,odule for -acation "7ercise<#Sensiti*ity input settings<4Selecting the Independent -ariale and Setting the other $arameters<41he Sensiti*ity %raph for /cti*ities<&

1he /cti*ities Sensiti*ity %raph Data $oints as Shown in "7cel<81he Supermatrices<8Bnweighted Supermatri7<:1he Limit ,atri7 is the inal Supermatri7 containing the answers<:1he Limit ,atri7 with Hierarchical ption Calculations<+

De%o o& a Ratin#s Model........................................................................................................'$

-acation $laces Aated ,odel – ,ain Screen!=-acation $laces Aated ,odel – Aatings Screen!=Aesults for the /lternati*es deri*ed in the Aatings ,odule!0 6ow try adding some *acation places!0

Eercise Two " Creatin# a Ratin#s Model.............................................................................3'

Category "ditor for Creating Criterion Categories!!Compare the Aating Categories for /cti*ities!#-iewing the Aesults in Aatings!4

Hierarchical ,odels with Su@criteria!&Complete Hierarchical ,odels!8

ii



TUTORIAL ON HIERARCHICAL DECISION MODELS

Tutorial for t! Su"!rD!#i$io%$ Soft&ar!

PART '. HOW TO USE SUPERDECISIONS TO BUILD

AHP HIERARCHICAL DECISION MODELS1here are two tutorials 1his first one is on how to create hierarchical /H$ decision models

using the SuperDecisions software and do the personal decision e7ercises such as choosing a place to go on *acation 1he second tutorial is on how to create network /6$ decision modelsfor decision making with dependence and feedack and comple7 'enefits. pportunities. Costsand Aisks models

;e start y showing how to uild an /nalytic Hierarchy $rocess (/H$) hierarchical decisionmodel

INSTALLIN THE SUPERDECISIONS SOFTWARE

To I%$tall t! SuperDecisions $oft&ar! i%$!rt t! CD i% t! CD

ri*! o% +our #o,"ut!r. Cli#- o% Start t!% o% Ru% a% ru% t!S!tu" fil! to i%$tall t! $oft&ar!. If ti$ fil! o!$ o!$ %otauto,ati#all+ a""!ar #li#- o% t! M+ Co,"ut!r i#o% o% t! !$-to"t!% #li#- o% t! i#o% for t! CD ri*! a% o% t! fil! S!tu".!/!.S!rial %u,0!r to i%$tall t! $oft&ar!1A2454D6B57EBIt &ill 0! *ali u%til Ma+ 899. :ou ,a+ o&%loa a% u"at! *!r$io%fr!! a% $!rial %u,0!r fr!! fro, &&&.$u"!r!#i$io%$.#o, &!% ti$$oft&ar! !/"ir!$.

o To $tart t! "ro;ra, #li#- o% t! i#o% tat a$ a""!ar! o% t!

!$-to" of +our #o,"ut!r or ;o to Start<Pro;ra,$<Su"!r D!#i$io%$1

0



TUTORIAL

INTRODUCTION TO BASIC CONCEPTS 1his lesson descries how to uild the simplest decision model that has a goal. criteria andalternati*es. make judgments (paired comparisons). and compute the results to find the estalternati*e

CLUSTERS AND ELEMENTS

/ hierarchical decision model has a goal. criteria that are e*aluated for their importance to thegoal. and alternati*es that are e*aluated for how preferred they are with respect to each criterion/n astract *iew of such a hierarchy is shown in igure 0 1he goal. the criteria and thealternati*es are all elements in the decision prolem. or nodes in the model 1he linesconnecting the goal to each criterion means that the criteria must e pairwise compared for their importance with respect to the goal Similarly. the lines connecting each criterion to thealternati*es mean the alternati*es are pairwise compared as to which is more preferred for thatcriterion 1hus in the hierarchy that is shown there are si7 sets of pairwise comparisons. one for the criteria with respect to the goal and 4 for the alternati*es with respect to the 4 criteria

/ SuperDecisions model consists of clusters of elements (or nodes). rather than elements (or nodes) arranged in le*els 1he simplest hierarchical model has a goal cluster containing the goalelement. a criteria cluster containing the criteria elements and an alternati*es cluster containingthe alternati*e elements as shown in igure 0 ;hen clusters are connected y a line it meansnodes in them are connected 1he cluster containing the alternati*es of the decision must enamed /lternatives. 6odes and Clusters are organiEed alphaetically in the calculations. so aneasy way to control the order is to preface the names with numers

CRITERIA

ALTERNATI=ES

(i#ure 1. /stract Aepresentation of a Decision Hierarchy

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OAL




(i#ure '. SuperDecisions Hierarchical Model &or )electin# a Car.

1he model in igure <. Car Hierarchy.mod, is included with the sample models for theSuperDecisions software

o To load this model click on the Help command, then on Sample Models

and select Car Hierarchy.mod.

;hen clusters are shown connected with a line. it means elements in them are connected 1o seewhich nodes are connected from a source or >parent? node. turn on the >Show Connections? icon

and place the cursor o*er the parent node 1he nodes to which it is connected will then eoutlined in red as shown in igure !

!

We are indebted to Professor Saul Gass

for this model. He came up with these

fictitious car names to avoid anycomplaints from actual car

manufacturers. Since then, howeveran actual car named Avalon has come

to the market. We stick by our uns

!hese names are not intended to

represent any actual car that iscurrently bein sold or ever was. Any

resemblance is entirely coincidental.



TUTORIAL

(i#ure 3. 1urn on >Show Connections? Icon to see "lement Connections

"ach criterion node is also connected to the alternati*es $lace the cursor o*er each criterion inturn to highlight the alternati*es for each

In a hierarchical SuperDecisions model clusters are connected y arrows going in one

direction from top to ottom In network models. co*ered in the ne7t chapter. clusters may econnected with arrows going oth ways and also may e connected to themsel*es with a loop

In a hierarchical structure like that shown in igure !. each comparison set is made up of a parentnode and the nodes it connects to in the cluster elow 1here are fi*e sets of pairwisecomparisons to do for this model the criteria with respect to the goal. and the alternati*es withrespect to each of the four criteria

SHOWIN THE PAIRWISE COMPARISONS FOR THE CRITERIA WITH RESPECT

TO THE OAL

In this model the pairwise comparisons ha*e already een completed

o To see the pairwise comparisons for the criteria with respect to the goal,

left-click on the Goal node inside the Goal cluster to select it.

#

>

;ith the >Show Connectionsicon depressed. hold the cursoo*er a node. here it is the %oanode. so the nodes it connects t




o Select the AssessCompare, !ode Comparisons command

o Click on the "utton #$o Comparison% to show &igure '.

(i#ure 4. 1he 5uestionnaire Comparison Screen

o Click on the Matri( "uttom to see the e)ui*alent Matri( comparison screen

shown in &igure +. Click on Graphic, then er"al.

(i#ure *. 1he ,atri7 $airwise Comparison Screen

/ numer in the matri7 is a dominance judgment 'lue indicates the element listed at the left isdominant (more important. more preferred.F) than the element listed at the top Aed indicatesthat the element listed at the top is dominant / judgment of 0= means they are eGual. a judgment of != means moderately or three times as much (if you are dealing withmeasureales). and += means nine times as much 2ou should group your elements intohomogeneous clusters so that it is not necessary to use a numer larger than + 1he undamentalScale for judgments is shown in 1ale 0

4



TUTORIAL

Ta+le 1. 1he undamental Scale for ,aking 9udgments

)ual

/ 0etween )ual and Moderate

1 Moderate

' 0etween Moderate and Strong

+ Strong2 0etween Strong and ery Strong

3 ery Strong

4 0etween ery Strong and (treme

5 (treme

$ecimal 6udgments, such as 1.+, are allowedfor fine tuning, and 6udgments greater than 5may "e entered, though it is suggested that

they "e a*oided.

;hen a numer greater than + is suggested y the inconsistency checking. this means that the

elements you ha*e grouped together are too disparate 2ou may input a numer greater than +. ut perhaps you should re@organiEe your structure so that such a comparison is not reGuired Itwill do no great damage to allow numers up to 0< or 0!. ut you should not go much eyondthat

o Click on the Computations, Show !ew 7riorities command to see the

results of this pairwise comparison shown in &igure 2.

(i#ure ,. 1he Aesults of the $airwise Comparisons

Here the inconsistency is ==&4&. so it is not necessary to correct any judgments

&

1he inconsistencyinde7 is shownhere /t ==&4 it isless than =0= sono correction of judgments isneeded



TUTORIAL

o Shortcut $ress ShiftJ nJ simultaneously. that is. capital letter 6. with your

cursor located on the ackground of the ,ain ;indow

• Start the names of the clusters with numers to control their order as they are displayed in

alphaetical order in the supermatrices

• 1ype "Goal for the name and >1his is the goal cluster. the top le*el in a hierarchical

model? for the description Select the >Create /nother? utton to create the ne7t cluster1o change the font click on the uttons under ,ain ont and make your choices from thedropdown menus or the model to appear as it does in igure !. set the main font to 6ew 1imes Aoman. <:. 'old Italic

(i#ure 2. 6ew Cluster Dialogue 'o7

• 1ype #Criteria in the new cluster dialogue o7 with the description >Criteria for selecting

a *acation place.? and again select the >Create /nother? utton to create the ne7t cluster

• 1ype $Alternatives with the description >/lternati*e *acation places? and click the

?Sa*e? utton to sa*e and terminate the process of adding new clusters

/rrange the clusters as shown elow y clicking on the title ar and dragging

:




CREATE THE ELEMENTS INSIDE THE CLUSTERS

• Select Design. 6ode. 6ew then select "Goal from the list of clusters that appears to show

you wish to enter the element in that cluster "nter Goal %ode in the 6ame field and adescription in the Description field 1o pick a ackground color for the node click on the

>Change Color? utton and select a color Select the font you prefer $ress Sa*e to endthe process of entering nodes in this cluster

+

Click on uttonat ottom corner and drag toresiEe cluster

window



TUTORIAL

o Shortcut to create new node& 'ocate your cursor on the backround of the oal

cluster window and press the letter (n).

o Another shortcut to create new node& *iht click on the backround of the cluster

to et a drop down menu of commands and select +create node in cluster

ADD THE NODESAND THEIR DESCRIPTIONS TO THE OTHER CLUSTERS1

•'Criteria Cluster

o 0/cti*ities /cti*ities one can engage in

o <6ightlife 1hings to do at night

o !Sightseeinge Sightseeing

o #Cost Cost including tra*el. accommodations and acti*ities

• 3Alternaties Cluster

o "-rlando rlando has e7cellent acti*ities. decent nightlife and is moderate in

cost o #San rancisco San rancisco has moderate acti*ities. ao*e a*erage night life.

great sightseeing and can e costlyo $%ew /ork 6ew 2ork has e7cellent acti*ities. e7cellent nightlife. *ery good

sightseeing and can e *ery costly

0=




CONNECT THE ELEMENTS

6o lines connect the clusters yet ecause the elements within them are not connected

TO CONNECT THE OAL NODE TO THE CRITERIA NODES1

• Select the Design. >6ode connections from? command In the list that appears click on

the node named %oal that is to e the parent or source node In the list that now appears.left click on the criteria nodes to select them

o Shortcut& !o connect usin the +0ake Connections icon , left click onthe icon to depress it and turn on the connections mode, then left click on the

source node and riht click on each of the nodes it connects to. !o turn off the

connections mode, riht click the icon aain to un1depress it.

o Shortcut& !o disconnect, left click on the source node and riht click on any of the

nodes that are outlined in red 2that were previously connected to it3 to disconnect.

TO CONNECT THE CRITERIA TO THE ALTERNATI=ES1

• Select the Design. >6ode connections from? command In the list that appears click on

the node named 0$rice that is to e the parent or source node In the list that nowappears. left click on all the alternati*es to select them

• Connect the rest of the criterion nodes to the /lternati*e nodes in turn

SHORTCUT FOR CONNECTIN ALL THE NODES IN A CLUSTER AT ONCE1

• $ress the ShiftJ key and hold it down while left clicking on one of the nodes in the

cluster 1his selects all the nodes in that cluster as source nodes 20ake sure the +0ake

Connections icon is turned on, that is, depressed3.

00

Click on top leftcorner for menuSelect rganiEe 6odeshoriEontally to line up

the nodes and find anythat may ha*edisappeared from*iew



TUTORIAL

• ,o*e to the cluster with nodes to e connected from the source nodes. press the ShiftJ

key and hold it down while right clicking on one of the nodes in the >to? cluster 1hisselects all the nodes and connects all the pre*iously selected source nodes to them

THE COMPLETED MODEL

THE NODE MENU FOR RENAMIN NODES REMO=IN THEM MA>IN AND HIHLIHTIN CONNECTIONSAND ENTERIN THE COMPARISON MODE1

• Aight click on a node to get its dropdown menu shown elow from which you can

perform operations on that node

SA=IN :OUR MODEL

1hese commands for sa*ing a model are located on the ile menu

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• (ile )ae sa*es a copy of your model in the directory you designate as a file with the

e7tension ahp

• (ile )ae As is used to sa*e your model under a new name 1he old file is closed and

you continue working in the new file It is useful to sa*e successi*e *ersions such ascar0ahp. car<ahp. car!ahp and so on aout e*ery != minutes so you always ha*e a

recent copy you can restore in case of an unforeseen prolem• (ile Adanced )ae can e used to compress models to a smaller siEe file with the

e7tension modgE Such models can e opened in the usual way with the ile. pencommand. ut it may take a little longer

• (ile Con&i#ure eneral ta+ %o to the %eneral ta in the configure dialogue o7 to set

the automatic sa*ing inter*al for models 1he un@do command is currently disaled

6e7t you will learn how to make judgments or pairwise comparisons aout the criteria and alternati*es inyour model

ASSESSMENTS < PAIRWISE COMPARISONS O=ER=IEW

ne of the major strengths of the /H$ is the use of pairwise comparisons to deri*e accurate ratioscale priorities. as opposed to using traditional approaches of assigning weights which can also e difficult to justify $airwise comparison is the process of comparing the relati*e importance. preference. or likelihood of two elements (for e7ample. criteria) with respect to another element(for e7ample. the goal) in the le*el ao*e to estalish priorities for the elements eing compared$airwise comparisons are carried out for all the parent3children sets of nodes

1he nodes that are to e pairwise compared are always all in the same cluster and are comparedwith respect to their parent element. the node from which they are connected 1his results in>local priorities? of the children nodes with respect to the parent

Select the /ssess3Compare. 6ode comparisons command to start the comparison process If anode has een selected y clicking on it prior to starting the comparisons. that node will e the parent node in the first set of comparisons to come up If no node has een selected. the firstnode in the first cluster will e the parent 1he parent node and the cluster where the childrennodes are located are specified in the node comparison dialogue o7 that appears

Click on the Do Comparison utton to start the comparison process 1he pairwise comparison process starts in the mode that was last in use. or in the 5uestionnaire mode the first time 1hereare four pairwise comparison assessment modes 1o switch from one mode to the other click onthe ta at the top ;hen a judgment entered in one mode is recorded in one mode. the same judgment is recorded in all the modes Calculations are ased on the numers in the ,atri7

mode (the 5uestionnaire mode always shows whole numers. and no numers are shown in the%raphic and -eral mode)

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TUTORIAL

• 5uestionnaire In this mode. select the judgment on the side of the most dominant

memer of the pair. that is. the most important. if it is a criterion as shown elow. or themost preferred. in the case of alternati*es 1o in*ert the dominance order click on thesame judgment on the other side of the 0 in the row. nearer to the more important. or

more preferred node

56E)TI!--AIRE M!DE

1o show the priorities deri*ed from any of the comparison modes. select Computations. Show

new $riorities from the comparison screen menu

0#

Comparisons are madewith respect to the parentnode listed here.

The children nodes that areto "e pairwise compared arein the cluster listed here.




1o e7it from the comparison mode. click on the 7 in the upper right hand corner. or select theile Close command

• -u%erical 7ud#%ents are made in a matri7 using a nine@point scale that represent how

many times one element is more important than another 1he arrow at the left of theentry points to the dominant element 1o switch which element is dominant. left doule@click on the arrow

-6MERICA8 !R MATRI9 M!DE

04

The current 6udgment ishighlighted.

Arrow pointsto dominantelement.

$ou"le clickarrow to changedominantcriterion fromrice to comfort.



TUTORIAL

• er+al 7ud#%ents are used to compare factors using the words "Gual. ,oderate. Strong.

-ery Strong. "7treme "Gual reGuires no e7planation "7treme means an order of magnitude – aout + or 0= to 0 9udgments etween these words. such as ,oderate toStrong are also possile In the *eral mode the node mentioned first is the dominantone 1o in*ert click the >In*ert Comparison? utton at the ottom of the screen

ERBA8 06DME-T M!DE

• raphical 7ud#%ents are made y clicking and dragging the pie slice to change the

relati*e siEe of the pie slice to the circle and the relati*e length of the two ars until it

represents how many times more important one element is than the other

RAPHICA8 06DME-T M!DE

0&

1o in*ert judgment click on the >In*ert

Comparison? utton




MI)CE88A-E!6) ME-6 I- C!MPARI)!-) /I-D!/

• Select the command Direct data entry to directly enter data *alues that are con*erted to

priorities y summing and di*iding each entry y the total (normaliEing to 0)

E-TERI- DIRECT PRI!RITIE)

;hen entering numers for preference and higher numers are etter. for e7ample if youwere comparing cars for price. enter the data itself If higher numers are less preferred. for e7ample. for cost. higher numers (prices) are less desirale In this case in*ert the prioritiesas shown elow / spreadsheet program. "7cel. was used to perform the calculations andcreate the tale elow ("@=4 means 0=@4)

Car $rice 03$rice (03$rice)31otal(final priorities)

/*alon 04=== &&&8"@=4 =#=8

'aylon 0:=== 444&"@=4 =!!+

08



TUTORIAL

Carryon <#=== #0&8"@=4 =<4#

1otal ====0&#

Tip; *en when you ha*e data, as with car prices, it is often "etter to interpret what the num"ers mean toyou and use the <uestionnaire mode so the final results match your personal *alues or your personalinterpretation of what the num"ers mean to you.

Select the command Computations3$riorities to see the results from pairwise comparisons or from direct data such as prices of cars $rices need to e >in*erted? as shown ao*e

CHA-I- THE PAIRED C!MPARI)!- T:PE

1here are three different paired comparison types. I%portance. Pre&erence and 8i;elihood r you can select !ther and enter a word of your own choosing – >eauty? for e7ampleImportance is most appropriate when comparing criteria or criteria $reference is appropriatewhen comparing alternati*es with respect to a criterion Likelihood is appropriate whencomparing the likelihood of uncertain e*ents or scenarios. such as in risk analysis

• Select the command ,isc3 Comparison words to change the comparison type

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MA>IN THE ?UDMENTS

Since judgments aout the relati*e importance of the criteria may depend on the alternati*es eing considered. y making the judgments ottom up. that is first for the alternati*es. then for the criteria. you can e more informed on how important the criteria really are Howe*er. for illustrati*e purposes. we will make judgments top down in this tutorial

06DE THE CRITERIA /ITH RE)PECT T! THE !A8 -!DE

0 rom the ,ain Screen. left click the %oal (until depressed)

< Select /ssess3Compare. 6ode from the menu or on the shortcut ar

! Click the >Do Comparisons? utton to get into the comparison mode 2ou mayuse any of the modes Guestionnaire. *eral. matri7 or graphical

# /fter making the judgments select Computations. Show new priorities4 If your inconsistency is more than =0=. select Computations. ,ost inconsistent

ala "7pert Choice to find out where it is 1hen modify your judgments toimpro*e your inconsistency

& Close the comparison model to return to the comparison na*igator

0+



TUTORIAL

06DE THE A8TER-ATIE) /ITH RE)PECT T! EACH !( THE CRITERIA -!DE)

0 Click >2es? to mark the criteria comparisons with respect to the goal ascomplete Click the 6e7t utton to mo*e to the first criterion. and click the

Do Comparison utton to get into the comparison mode for the *acation places with respect to the first criterion

< Continue the process until all the judgments are finished

CHEC<I- C!MP8ETED C!MPARI)!-)

1o show which comparisons ha*e een completed left click the >Show 6ode Comparisons? icon

and hold the cursor o*er the >parent node?. in this case the %oal. to ha*e clusters withcompleted comparisons outlined in red

IE/ /ITH =)H!/ C!--ECTI!-)> IC!- T6R-ED !-

<=

Turn on #Show Connections% icon

"y clicking on it and hold cursor o*er #parent% node to ha*e clusterscontaining its children nodes for which comparisons ha*e "eencompleted outlined in red.




S :NTHESIS 5 ETTIN THE RESULTS

1he results for the alternati*es are otained with the Synthesis command in the ,ain ,odel

-iew Select the Computations3SynthesiEe command. or click the shortcut icon to see thefinal results

R E)68T) (R!M THE ):-THE)I) C!MMA-D

1he %ormals column presents the results in the form of priorities 1his is the usual way to reporton results 1he 4deals column is otained from the %ormals column y di*iding each of itsentries y the largest *alue in the column 1he *aw column is read directly from the LimitSupermatri7 In a hierarchical model such as this one the *aw column and the %ormals columnare the same

1hese results show that the San rancisco would e the est choice for this decision maker 1he>Ideal? column shows the results di*ided y the largest *alue so that the est choice has a priority of 0= 1he others are in the same proportion as in >6ormals? and are interpreted thisway rlando is 8#8 K as good as San rancisco and 6ew 2ork is &#!K as good as Sanrancisco

1his answer reflects the preferences of the person who made the judgments. incorporating their personal *alues and desires. and is not an ojecti*e assessment of the relati*e *alue as a *acation place of rlando. San rancisco and 6ew 2ork 1his result also matches our intuition as weknow a high priority was put on acti*ities

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TUTORIAL

SENSITI=IT:

Select the Computations Sensiti*ity command to get into the sensiti*ity module

It is necessary to set the independent *ariale to see a meaningful sensiti*ity graph

1here is one line for each alternati*e in sensiti*ity windows In the software they are color coded so that it is easy to see which line corresponds to each alternati*e. ut here in lack andwhite they look the same

!PE-I- )CREE- I- )E-)ITIIT: M!D68E (!R ACATI!- E9ERCI)E

<<




)E-)ITIIT: I-P6T )ETTI-)

Click the 6ew utton in the Sensiti*ity input selector 1he 6ew $arameter dialogue o7 shown

elow will appear Set the new parameters as shown elow Click on $arameter 1ype utton andchoose Supermatri7 (type <) 1he 6etwork is correctly set to = for a hierarchical model Click on the ;rt (;ith respect to) 6ode and select %oal Set Start to =0 and end to ++ 1his isnecessary only for hierarchical models as including the actual endpoints of the inter*al. = and 0.gi*es a meaningless graph near the endpoints Click the Done utton on the 6ew parameter o7.then click the Bpdate utton on the Sensiti*ity input selector

)E8ECTI- THE I-DEPE-DE-T ARIAB8E A-D )ETTI- THE !THER PARAMETER)

'efore Setting $arameters /fter Setting $arameters inal Selected $arameters

<!

Aemo*e /cti*ities. theautomatically selected

Independent -ariale y first selecting it.then clicking theAemo*e utton



TUTORIAL

THE )E-)ITIIT: RAPH (!R ACTIITIE)

1he priority of /cti*ities is plotted on the 7 a7is and the priorities of the alternati*es are plottedon the y a7is Click on the lue *ertical line and drag it to change the priority of acti*ities 2oucan then read the corresponding *alues for the alternati*es from the intercept points of the*ertical line with the alternati*e lines /t the point /cti*ities =4. rlando is aout #<. San

ancisco is aout !4 and 6ew 2ork is aout <4 ;hat this graph is telling us is that if the priority of /cti*ities is greater than aout =#. rlando ecomes the preferred choice 'eforethat San rancisco is the est alternati*e

2ou can e7plore sensiti*ity for the other criteria y returning to the $arameter Selection dialogue o7es and resetting the parameters

<#




Select the ile Sa*e command and enter a name such as ActivitySensitivity.5ls to sa*e the datafrom which the graph is constructed Load "7cel and select ile pen to import the file usingthe "7cel ;iEard Meep clicking okay til the import finishes

THE

ACTIITIE)

)E-)ITIIT:

RAPH

DATA

P!I-T)

A)

)H!/-

I-

E9CE8

1he interpretation of the data shown ao*e is that as the input *alue. the priority of /cti*itiesunder the %oal node in the Bnweighted Supermatri7. changes from = to 0 in si7 steps thecorresponding priorities of the alternati*es. shown ao*e. are computed from the LimitSupermatri7

THE SUPERMATRICES

1he priorities deri*ed from the pairwise comparisons are entered in the BnweightedSupermatri7 Select the Computations3Bnweighted Super,atri73 %raphical to see how the priorities that were deri*ed in the comparison process appear there

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TUTORIAL

6-/EIHTED )6PERMATRI9

In a hierarchical model like this. the ;eighted Supermatri7 is the same as the BnweightedSupermatri7 ecause the clusters are not weighted Aaising the ;eighted Supermatri7 to powersyields the Limit ,atri7 from which the final answers are e7tracted 1he final priorities for the/lternati*es are in the column under the %oal

THE 8IMIT MATRI9 I) THE (I-A8 )6PERMATRI9 C!-TAI-I- THE A-)/ER)

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'y selecting the Computation Limit ,atri7 ption and setting the computation method to either of the 6ew Hierarchy options. the Limit ,atri7 will display the intermediate priorities under e*ery node in the model 1his option must e selected each time the model is opened 1hedefault *alue is the first. Calculus type. which always ends up with only the priorities for thealternati*es in each columnfor a model that has a hierarchical structure It is handy to e ale to

read the priorities of the criteria with respect to the %oal in the first column

THE 8IMIT MATRI9 /ITH HIERARCHICA8 !PTI!- CA8C68ATI!-)

DEMO OF A RATINS MODEL $eople often rate alternati*es using words such as High. ,edium and LowN or "7cellent. -ery%ood. %ood. air and $oor with respect to some characteristic they ha*e ;e use the same ideaand rate alternati*es with respect to the criteria ;e add one twist and prioritiEe the ratingswords themsel*es. so that a >High? rating. for e7ample. is twice as good as a >,edium? rating

;e will now ha*e you load a pre*iously created model set up to do ratings 1he model to selecta *acation place was con*erted into a Aatings model named 6acation Places *ated.mod ;e will

ha*e you load this prepared model and use it to rate some *acation places It is located inSample ,odels under the Help command

In this model the *acation places do not appear in the main model 1hey are in the Aatingsmodule attached to the model 2ou can see from the title ar that this is a ratings type of model1he ad*antage of a ratings model is that the e*aluation structure is set up and each alternati*e ise*aluated as to how it performs on each criterion 1his dramatically shortens the numer of judgments reGuired Howe*er. ratings models are only appropriate in *ery well understood

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$riorities for intermediate nodesnow appear in the Limit ,atri7



TUTORIAL

e*aluation settings where knowledgeale people or e7perts ha*e pro*ided the e*aluationstructure 1hey should not e used in new or one@of@a@kind decisions

ACATI!- P8ACE) R ATED M!DE8 ? MAI- )CREE-

1o get into the Aatings module shown elow select the /ssess3Compare. Aatings command. or select the Design. Aatings command – oth do the same thing ;hen the ratings module is open.the main screen *iew is locked 1o return to it. close the Aatings window

ACATI!- P8ACE) R ATED M!DE8 ? R ATI-) )CREE-

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1he results in a ratings model are otained with the Calculations. $riorities command 1heSynthesis results. in which the 6ormals column is the same as the $riorities elow. can also eotained in the ratings module or ack in the main model with the Computations. Synthesiscommand

R E)68T)

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THE

A8TER-ATIE)

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Results as Priorities Results as Totals

;hen shown as 1otals the results may e interpreted this way San rancisco. with a priority of :+&. is the est. ut is still only :+&K as good as a perfect *acation place would e while 6ew2ork has K:0# 1he $riorities are otained from the 1otals y normaliEing. that is. summingthe 1otals *alues and di*iding y the sum ;hen shown as priorities the results sum to 0=

-!/ TR: ADDI- )!ME ACATI!- P8ACE)@

0 Bse the command "dit /lternati*e 6ew to add a new alternati*e< Click on a cell to show the possile ratings and select the one you want as shown elow! /fter you complete the ratings select the Calcuations command and look at oth

$riorities and 1otals to see your results# Close the Aatings window and return to the main screen 1ry the SynthesiEe command to

see that the results are the same

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TUTORIAL

E6ERCISE TWO 5 CREATIN A RATINS MODEL

• Creatin# a Ratin#s Model ;e shall show how a Aatings model is created y starting

with the pre*ious -acation e7ample and con*erting it from a relati*e model using only pairwise comparisons to a Aatings model where standard categories or >Aatings? are set

up for each criterion 1he alternati*es. the *acation places. are then e*aluated or ratedagainst these standards y selecting for each the appropriate category for each criterion

• irst. sa*e a copy of the *acation model you created in e7ercise one y selecting the

ile3Sa*e /s command and name it >-acation Aatings ,odel? Aemo*e the /lternati*escluster y right clicking on the title ar and deleting it Select the /ssess3CompareAatings command to create the Aatings spreadsheet nce the Aatings screen appears.shown elow. the ,ain ,odel -iew will disappear and remain >locked out? until theAatings screen is closed

• Add Criteria Select the "dit Criteria 6ew command and click on the nodes from the

main model that will e the criteria in the Aatings spreadsheet Selecting all four criteria rings them into the Aatings spreadsheet 1he priorities for the criteria. shown elow thenames. are the same ones that were estalished in the main model though pairwisecomparison

)tartup Ratin#s /indow Ratin#s /indow a&ter Criteria )elected

• Add Alternaties 6e7t. select the "dit /lternati*es 6ew command and type the names

of the alternati*es rlando. San rancisco. 6ew 2ork 1his results in the Super Decisions Aatings tale with alternati*es added

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Ratin#s /indow with Alternaties Added

• Creatin# and Prioritiin# the Ratin#s Cate#ories 1his step must e done efore the

alternati*es can e rated Select the "dit Criteria Categories command. choose Activities

and create categories for it (elow)

CATE!R: EDIT!R (!R CREATI- CRITERI!- CATE!RIE)

Clicking the Comparison utton will ring up the following comparison screen where we pairwise compare to estalish priorities for the categories Select the commandComputations3Ideal $riorities to see the resulting priorities

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Click the Comparisons utton to pairwisecompare categoriesand estalish prioritiesfor them



TUTORIAL

C!MPARE THE R ATI- CATE!RIE) (!R ACTIITIE)

Priorities &or Actiities Idealied Priorities &or Actiities

1he idealiEed priorities shown ao*e are otained from the priorities in the first column ao*e y

di*iding each y the largest (=#&< in this case) and are used in the Aatings spreadsheet or e7ample. an "7cellent rating means place the numer 0=== in the cell. for each cell multiplythe cell idealiEed *alue times the column priority listed at the top of the column and add across toget the total for that row

Close all open windows to return to the Aatings spreadsheet Aight or left click on the (rlando./cti*ities) cell to get the dropdown menu for selecting the appropriate category

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Create categories for the rest of the criteria and prioritiEe them 1he rest of the categories thatwere estalished in this model and their priorities are shown in the tale elow It is notnecessary to ha*e the same numer of rating categories for each column (there are ! for

$restige)

Actiities -i#htli&e )i#htseein# Cost

"7cellent 0=== "7cellent 0=== "7ceptional 0=== O4==@O0=== =400

/o*e /*erage =&&# /o*e /*erage =&&# /o*e /*erage =!!8 O0===@O0:== 0===

/*erage =!=& /*erage =!=& /*erage =0#: O0:==@O<4== =!+!

'elow /*erage =0<& 'elow /*erage =0<& $oor ==&4< J O<4== ==+:

$oor ==& $oor ==&

IE/I- THE R E)68T) I- R ATI-)

• Select the Calculations31otals command to see the e*aluation scores efore normaliEing

1he 1otal for each row is otained y multiplying the *alues for the ratings in the cellstimes the column priorities and summing

• Select the Calculations3$riorities command to see the results as priorities that sum to 0

=S>?TS SH@! AS T@TA?S 8! TH=AT8!GS S7=A$SHT

T@TA?S C@!=T$ T@7=8@=8T8S 8! TH =AT8!GSS7=A$SHT

• Select the Calculations3,atri7 $riorities command to see the ideal priority *alues in each

cell that correspond to the *eral ratings 1hese *alues can e locked. copied with CtrlC and pasted with Ctrl - into an "7cel Spreadsheet for further processing

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TUTORIAL

HIERARCHICAL MODELS WITH SUB5CRITERIA

;hen the criteria in a hierarchical model are roken down into su@criteria one way to handle it.though not the only one is to put the criteria in a cluster. then create a cluster for the sucriteriaof each criterion / second way would e to put all the sucriteria in a le*el into the samecluster. ut then it would e difficult to see at a glance the sucriteria that elong to a criterion

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In the figure ao*e. one main criterion node. 1ime. connects directly to the alternati*es 1heother criteria connect to sucriteria that then connect to the alternati*es 1he lowest le*el of criteria that connect to the alternati*es are called the >co*ering criteria? Here the co*eringcriteria are the main criterion 1ime plus the sucriteria /musements. ceans. History. Hotels.Aestaurants. 1ra*el Cost. /ccommodations 1he pairwise comparisons are done in the usual way

for this model It can also e done as a Aatings model y selecting the ottom le*el or >co*eringcriteria? as the criteria in Aatings

COMPLETE HIERARCHICAL MODELS

In a complete hierarchical model. all the nodes in a le*el connect to all the nodes in the ne7tlower le*el 1he model shown in igure : elow has a >complete hierarchy? structure e7cept for the ne7t to last le*el etween >%roups /ffected? and >jecti*es? 1he armers were interestedonly in Irrigation and lood Control on the ne7t le*el. the Aecreationists only in lat Dam (damfull of water) and ;hite Dam (low water le*el in dam). the $ower Bsers only in power and the"n*ironmentalists only in the "n*ironment 1he clusters in the /6$ model shown in igure +correspond to the le*els in hierarchic drawing in igure :

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TUTORIAL

(i#ure . Hierarchy for Deciding on ;ater Le*el in a Dam

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At what le*el should the $am "e kept; &ull or Half-&ull

&inancial 7olitical n*Bt 7rotection Social 7rotection

Congress $ept.8nter. Courts State ?o""ys

Clout ?egal 7osition

7otential

&inancial?oss

8rre*ersi"ilityof the n*Bt

Archeo-

logical7ro"lems

Current

&inancial=esour ces

&armers=ecreation

7ower >sersn*ironmentalists

8rrigation &lood Control &lat $am hite $amCheap 7ower 7rotectn*ironme

Half-&ull $am &ull $am

Fo#u$1(')

D!#i$io%Crit!ria1(8)

D!#i$io%Ma-!r$1(3)

Fa#tor$1()

rou"$Aff!#t!1(@)

O0!#5ti*!$1(4)

Alt!r%a5ti*!$1(7)




(i#ure $. 1he /6$ ,odel that Corresponds to the Dam $rolem shown in igure :

In the SuperDecisions software. a connection from one cluster to another means at least one

node in the source cluster is connected to one node in the target cluster 1o see e7actly which

nodes are connected in the software click on the icon to show the node connections

manual for building ahp decision models

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