manoj menon twitter:@menon manoj mmenon@frost · 12 mega trends + 9 transformational ... beyond...
TRANSCRIPT
21/10/2014
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Fast-Forward to 2020: New Trends Transforming the World as We Know It
Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Society
Manoj Menon Twitter:@menon_manoj [email protected]
21/10/2014
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“If you want something new, you have to stop doing something old” - Peter Drucker
“If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got” - Albert Einstein
“Know what your customers want before they do!”
Visions & Benchmarks
• Wayne Gretzy & Roger Banister
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Journey to Visionary Innovation
12 Mega trends
+
9 Transformational Shifts
+
50 Disruptive Technologies
+
Innovation Ecosystem Drivers
5
New Mega Trends
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the
future world with their far reaching sustainable impact on business, societies, economies,
cultures and personal lives.
Urbanization
Smart is the New Green
Social Trends
Connectivity and Convergence
Bricks and Clicks
Innovating to Zero
New Business Models
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers
Future Infrastructure Development
Health, Wellness and Well Being
Future of Mobility
6
Future of Energy
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9 Transformational Shifts by 2020
1
2
3
5
4
8
7
6
Connected Living
Big Data Clouds
Smart Cities
Sharing Economy
Rise of Personal Robotics Sensorization of
Things
Resource Nexus
Circular Economy
3D Printing
Impact on Future Products and Services Measured based on highest impact on future products and services capabilities, resulting in new convergent and radical
devices
Minor Conservative Radical
Gro
wth
Att
ract
iven
ess
Hig
h
Low
9
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Connected Work
Connected Home
Connected City
#1 Connected Living Connected Living market expected to reach $731.70 billion by 2020 as the importance
of internet and digital solutions grows in the overall economy.
Internet Economy* $14.7 Trillion
Global GDP $107.2 Trillion Connected
Living Market $731.70 billion
*Average based on data reported by OECD economies and BRIC nations as a percentage of GDP.
31%
54%
15%
Internet Economy as % Global GDP, 2020
% Breakdown of Connected Living Segments, 2020
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Connected Living Market: Breakdown by Segments Connected City leads with an estimated market potential of $392.24 Billion by 2020; Smart
Governance and Education services will contribute 50% of growth in this segment
2012 Market Segments ($ Billion)
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.
Home
Work
City
2020
*Unified Communication Products and Solutions
Communication*
Enterprise Social Software
Education
Transportation
Energy
Media and entertainment
Health
Automation and control
Enterprise Mobility
Governance
Banking and Financial
2.35
2.76
26.2
3.48
48.01
36
32.2
28
21.1
0.72
26.90
8.61
5.41
73.10
20.11
145.02
118
99.7
80
76.9
10.44
94.50
Connected Home Total 29.65 111.0
Connected Work Total 74.92 228.44
Connected City Total 122 392.24
Connected Living Total 226.83 731.70
Connected Living Market: Market Size Breakdown by Segments, Global, 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Modules and component providers
Device Vendors
Network Providers
Platform providers
Systems Integrators
Three Types of Connected Living Service Providers (Bundled Solutions)
1 2 3 4 5
SIM cards, sensors, Transponders
E.g. Sendum, Gemalto
Mobile device, appliance, utility, cars
E.g. Samsung, Apple
Applications, software, enabling technologies
E.g. SAP, Oracle
Interfaces, back-end, value-added services
E.g. IBM, Accenture
Integrators:
Platform Providers and Systems Integrators
Assimilators:
Device Vendors and Utilities
Aggregators:
Network Providers
Network, M2M, Wireless, Analytics
E.g. Telefonica, AT&T,
Cisco
End User
Connected Living, Value Chain Participants and Process
Connected Living: Value Chain of Smart Solutions
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11
Connected eco-system
Product-as-a-service:
Platform-as-a-service:
Integrator
Assimilators
Aggregators
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Connected Living: Types of Service Providers
#2 Big Data Deluge
2012 2020
1.2 Zettabyte
100.2 Zettabyte
Database
Data Warehouse
ERPs
CRMs
Systems
Web blogs
Social Media
Audio, Video
Excel, CSV
Online
Structured Data Unstructured Data
Social Sentiment Analysis
Data Analytics Marketing
Optimization - Micromarketing
Open Innovation
Discovery and Navigation
IT Economics
Security Intelligence
Asset Management
Data Visualization
+40% / Year
Types of Data-Enabled Services
Big Data Creates New Value Propositions for Businesses
Facebook Personalized
Marketing
Big Data
Big Data is growing at 40% annually
Data Traffic per Year, Global, 2012 and 2020
Source: IBM, Cisco, Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Big Data, Sources & Types of Services, 2014
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13
26 global smart cities by 2025 90 global sustainable cities by 2025
$1.5 trillion global market 2020 20% growth in smart energy
sector to 2020
#3 Smart City
Four Smart City Roles –
integrator, network service provider, pure-play product vendor, and Managed service provider
New Business Models–
BOO, BOT, BOM, and OBM
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#4 Sensorization of Things
2000s 2014 2015 2020 2025+ 2025+ 2020 2015 2014 2000s
Eye
Facial
Voice Touch
Gesture
Gaze controlled
Games
Mobile Eye Scrolling phones
Eye Tracking Analytics in cars
Pay with Face
Face Scanners
Tactical Identification
System
Voice Search
(Google)
Speech Recognition
Personal Digital
Assistant
AMOLED Touch
Screens
Holographic Touchscreen
3D Air gesture control of
Mobile devices
Sensory Tracking Technology in
Consumers Devices
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
3D modelling on computers
Brain
Mind Controlled
Games
Mind Remotes for
TV
Mind Controlled
Cars
Gesture Gaming
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Car Sharing
e.g., Zipcar
Clothes Sharing
e.g., Rent-the-Runway
Money Sharing
e.g., Lending Club
Goods Sharing
e.g., Ziloc
Space Sharing
e.g., Airbnb
Sharing Economy Market Potential*:
$155 billion by 2020
*Calculations are based on Airbnb's study on the money value of the shared economy.
Key Commodities Shared and Market Potential Forms of Sharing and Implications
Renting
Swapping
Reusing
Distributing
Lending
Circular Economy
Crowdsourcing
eMarketplaces
Source: Frost & Sullivan
#5 Sharing Economy
Suppliers
Manufacturers
Retailers
Consumers
Landfill/Waste Management
Linear Economy
Circular Economy
Reuse/ Redistribute
Refurbish/ Remanufacture
Recycle
$700 billion in consumer goods
material savings
$1.8 trillion per annum savings in avoiding waste in
textiles
$1.5 billion in collecting
household food waste annually in
the United Kingdom
Savings in reusing/refurbishing/recycling
Source: ESA; Ellen MacArthur Foundation; Frost & Sullivan
#6 Circular Economy
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Typical 3D Printing Process
#7 3D Printing While traditional production relies on removal of the material from the solid cast or
mold, 3D printing adds the layers of the material on the existing layers.
Design
Finish
Source: Frost and Sullivan
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3D printing saves on energy by 40 to 65 percent as it eliminates shipping and other logistics activities and enables users to produce objects with lesser material
Traditional Manufacturing vs 3D Printing. Global, 2014
Cost
Speed
Design
Quality
Higher Cost of manufacturing & shipping
Less innovative designs due to cost constraints
More time to build final product
Creates more waste; subtractive process will compromise on precision
Up to 70% savings due on Prototyping costs
Allows for easy yet inexpensive innovation in design
Lesser time taken due to compressed design cycles
Lighter & smaller amount of waste; Higher precision with layer-by-layer
manufacturing.
Traditional Manufacturing
3D Printing
3D Printing vs Traditional Manufacturing
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Key Attributes of 3D Printing (continued)
Crowdsourcing 1 Small Batch
Manufacturing
2
Mass Customization 4 On-demand
Production
3
A website dedicated to the sharing of user-created digital designs
A contract manufacturing firm using 3D printing technologies with capability to fulfil small
production orders with high cost-effectiveness
Helped the reverse engineering of a Ferrari 312P engine by 3D printing the sand molds for
the engine
Adidas was one of the first companies to install the Objet Connex500
3D printing system from Stratasys.
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Year of Commercial Impact: Key Application Sectors
Co
mm
erci
aliz
ed
(20
12
-20
14
) T
o b
e C
om
mer
cial
ized
(2
01
5-2
01
6)
On
go
ing
R&
D
Bey
on
d 2
02
0)
Hobby (arts and crafts)
Jewellery
Household printing
Printing small to medium medical prosthetics
Prototypes for automotive industry (for example, instrument panels)
Retail prototypes
Rapid prototyping for large industrial applications
Components for aerospace (for example, air ducts, hinges, jet engine parts, wing spares, spare parts) and defence research and development Printing chocolate
Printing food
Printing toys
Printing bicycles
Clothing and apparel in fashion industry
3D printed furniture
Building construction
Industrial tools manufacturing
Life sciences R&D
3D printed complex metal systems
3D printed energy harvesters for power stations
Large aircraft parts
3D printed semiconductors/ICs
Smart prosthetics
Artificial ears
3D printed organs
3D
PR
INT
ING
TE
CH
NO
LO
GY
RE
AD
INE
SS
Digital and memory equipment
Digital and memory equipment and rechargeable batteries
3D printed consumer electronics
Consumer Applications
Medical, Automotive, Retail Applications
Industrial Applications
20
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Signs of Shortage
Technologies/ New Discoveries
Future Availability of Resources
+30% demand by 2030
• Smart water • Wastewater
treatment • Water desalination
Water desalination could cover close to 5% of the estimated gap in the supply of freshwater.
+40% demand by 2030
• Smart grid • Energy harvesting • Shale gas
Shale gas will contribute 46% of the total US gas supply - 2035.
+50% demand by 2030
• Genetically modified food (golden rice)
• Synthetic meat • Smart farming
Golden rice could deliver 15 to 20% of the global daily nutrition requirements by 2030.
Water Energy Food
Source: FAO; IEA; IFPRI; WHO; Frost & Sullivan
#8 Resource Nexus
2004 2013
ASIMO = $150,000 LUNA = $1,000
Commercialization of Robotics Steep fall in personal robot ownership prices from $150,000 to $1,000
• Non-commercial • Not for sale • Available only on a lending basis
• Commercial • Currently available on an auction basis • Expected to retail between $1,000 and
$3,000
Robotics for elderly care: assisted living
Robots as teaching assistants
Robots for household care
Robots as nannies
Robots for companionship
Robots as personal assistants
Robots at Home (Personal Robot Applications)
2010
$1.29 billion
2020
$17.39 billion
Personal Robots Market: Global, 2010 and 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan
#9—Rise of the Robots
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Deutsche Bahn Launches Mobility Integration Services
23
Integrated
booking Alternative
routing
Real-time information
of integrated means of
transport
Cross- & upsell-products
(Hotel, luggage service…) Social
travelling Current Services
Current Partners
Long-distance transport Flight Car Coach Rental car CarSharing Bicycle Taxi
Local public transportation
+ partners + partners
via
Philips Hue
Smart Technology Connectivity & Interoperability
Go-to-Market Strategy
Crowdsource Platform Play
Adding automation and intelligence to
hardware
Find the interoperable
controlling device – phone / TV
Launch service as a mobile app /
software
Open up APIs
Example – Philips Hue
Source: AT&T, Verizon and Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Smart lighting – wirelessly
controlled lighting Controlled through a
Wi-Fi enabled Smartphone and an
Smart App
Available exclusively in
Apple retail stores and App stores
Second version 1.1 launched with more
features such as Geofencing
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50 Disruptive Technologies
25
Top 50 Technologies - Selection Methodology
Global Tracking of
500+ Technologies
Across 9 Technology
Clusters
Step 1
IP Activity
Funding
Market Potential
Megatrend Impact
Global Adoption Potential
Industry/ Application Impact
Step 2 Selection of assessment criteria Weights assigned to each criteria based on
relative importance Scoring and ranking of each technology on each
criteria to determine ‘Intensity of Impact’
‘Year of Impact ‘
score
‘Intensity of
Impact’ score
A
B
Step 3
Su
b-C
on
stru
cts
Top-50 Technologies
Innovation Index
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Global Top 50
Technologies
Nanomedicine Biosimilars Cancer Immunotherapy Synthetic Biology Stem Cell Therapeutics Metabolomics
Big Wind Power Floating LNG Hydraulic Fracturing Heat Pumps Li-based Batteries
Solid Waste Upcycling Desalination Advanced Filtration Air Filtration Smart Metering
Wearable Electronics Wireless Charging
Printed/Flexible Electronics Smart Haptics & Touch
OLED Displays Nanoelectronics
Polymer Chameleons Self-healing Materials Biochemicals Superhydrophobic Coatings Antimicrobial Coatings Carbon Fibers Lightweight Composites
Quantified Self Touchless Sensing Energy Harvesting
Sensor Fusion M2M Communications
3D Printing Atomic Layer Deposition Multi-Material Joining Technologies Composites Manufacturing
Digital Tomosynthesis BioNEMS/Nanofluidics
Health Informatics Neuromodulation Techniques
Augmented Reality XaaS Platform Dark Data Cognitive Analytics
Information & Communication Technology
Health & Wellness
Sustainable Energy
Clean & Green Environment
Microelectronics
Materials & Coatings
Sensors & Controls
Medical Devices & Imaging Technology
Advanced Manufacturing & Automation
Context-Aware Computing Predictive Data Analysis
Neuromorphic Computing Virtual Reality
Waves of Innovation Leveraging Points of Convergence
3D Printing
Carbon Fibres
Sensor Fusion
New paradigm in Industry 4.0
paving the way for new players with disruptive
potential
Predictive Data
Analysis
Lightweight frames for aerospace,
defence, automotive
Controlled 3D printing
for predictive
maintenance
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Next Gen Connected Care Continuous and Personalized Healthcare
Context-Aware Computing
Quantified-Self
Cloud Storage
Patient Monitoring Center
Predictive Data Analysis
Connected
Healthcare
Augmented Reality for Plant Monitoring Enabling Higher Efficiency and Productivity
Industry 5.0?
Augmented Reality
M2M Communication Sensor Fusion
Predictive Analytics
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Innovation Kaleidoscope
Social Trends
Innovating to Zero
Health, Wellness,
& Well-Being
Innovation Ecosystem
Drivers
Transformational Shifts
Mega Trends
Technology Clusters
Medical Devices & Imaging Technology
Big Data
Fast-Forward to 2020: New Trends Transforming the World as We Know It
Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Society
Manoj Menon Twitter:@menon_manoj [email protected]
21/10/2014
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The 10 Key Industries of the Future
Market Potential* by 2020 ($ Billion)
Gro
wth
Po
ten
tial
** (
20
12–2
02
0)
Market Potential* by 2020 ($ Billion)
Gro
wth
Po
ten
tial
** (
20
12–2
02
0)
Top Mature Industries by 2020 Top Emerging Industries by 2020
*Relative score assigned for potential annual turnover (revenue/shipment/units/capacity) of the industry in 2020 **Growth competitiveness measured by qualitative factors such as new patents, innovation cycle, and cross-sector spillovers.
Oil and Gas
Pharma and Healthcare
Chemical, Materials, and
Food
ICT
Automobile
Metals and Mining
Energy And
Power
Aerospace and Defense
Engineering and Construction
Electronics
Virtual Commerce Big Data
3D Printing
Cloud Computing
Cyber Security
Personal Robotics
Wellness Industry
Urban Logistics
Alternative Energy
Waste Management
Source: Bloomberg; Frost & Sullivan