managing waiting lines - endustri.eskisehir.edu.trendustri.eskisehir.edu.tr/ipoyraz/enm...
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Managing Waiting Lines
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
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12-2
Where the Time Goes
In a life time, the average
person will spend:
SIX MONTHS Waiting at stoplights
EIGHT MONTHS Opening junk mail
ONE YEAR Looking for misplaced 0bjects
TWO YEARS Reading E-mail
FOUR YEARS Doing housework
FIVE YEARS Waiting in line
SIX YEARS Eating
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12-3
Cultural Attitudes
“Americans hate to wait. So business is trying a trick or two to make lines seem shorter…” The New York Times, September 25, 1988
“An Englishman, even when he is by himself, will form an orderly queue of one…” George Mikes, “How to be an Alien”
“In the Soviet Union, waiting lines were used as a rationing device…” Hedrick Smith, “The
Russians”
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12-4
Waiting Realities
Inevitability of Waiting: Waiting results
from variations in arrival rates and service
rates
Economics of Waiting: High utilization
purchased at the price of customer waiting.
Make waiting productive (salad bar) or
profitable (drinking bar).
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12-5
Laws of Service
Maister’s First Law: Customers compare expectations with perceptions.
Maister’s Second Law: Is hard to play catch-up ball.
Skinner’s Law: The other line always moves faster.
Jenkin’s Corollary: However, when you switch to another other line, the line you left moves faster.
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12-6
Remember Me
I am the person who goes into a restaurant, sits
down, and patiently waits while the wait-staff does
everything but take my order.
I am the person that waits in line for the clerk to
finish chatting with his buddy.
I am the one who never comes back and it amuses
me to see money spent to get me back.
I was there in the first place, all you had to do was
show me some courtesy and service.
The Customer 12-6
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12-7
Psychology of Waiting
That Old Empty Feeling: Unoccupied time goes
slowly
A Foot in the Door: Pre-service waits seem
longer that in-service waits
The Light at the End of the Tunnel: Reduce
anxiety with attention
Excuse Me, But I Was First: Social justice with
FCFS queue discipline
They Also Serve, Who Sit and Wait: Avoids idle
service capacity
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12-8
Approaches to Controlling Customer Waiting
Animate: Disneyland distractions, elevator
mirror, recorded music
Discriminate: Avis frequent renter
treatment (out of sight)
Automate: Use computer scripts to address
75% of questions
Obfuscate: Disneyland staged waits (e.g.
House of Horrors)
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12-9
Waiting Time Concepts
Actual waiting times: Measurable time from arrival to beginning of service.
Perceived waiting times: amount of time that customers believe they have waited from arrival to beginning of service.
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12-10
Waiting Line System
“Queue” is another name for a waiting line.
A waiting line system consists of two components: The customer population (people or objects to be
processed)
The process or service system
Whenever demand exceeds available capacity, a waiting line or queue forms
There is a tradeoff between cost and service level.
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12-11
Basic Queueing Process
Arrivals Queue Service
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12-12
Waiting Line System
A waiting line system consists of two components:
The customer population (people or objects to be processed)
The process or service system
Whenever demand exceeds available capacity, a waiting line or queue forms
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12-13
Components of Queuing Systems
Population
Service Unit
Arrival
Waiting area and queue Departure
Queuing System= Queue + Service Unit
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12-14
Essential Features of Queuing Systems
Departure
Queue
discipline Arrival
process Queue
configuration
Service
process
Renege
Balk
Calling
population
No future
need for
service
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12-15
1. Calling Population (Arrivals/ customers)
Arrivals
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12-16
Terminology
Finite versus Infinite populations:
Is the number of potential new customers affected by the number of customers already in queue?
For practical intent and purposes, when the population is large in comparison to the service system, we assume the source population to be infinite (e.g., in a small barber shop, 200 potential customers per day may be treated as an infinite population).
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12-17 Customer Service Population Sources
Population Source
Finite Infinite
(without known bound)
Example: Number of machines needing repair when a company only has three machines.
Example: The number of people who could wait in a line for gasoline.
• The population is the source of customers.
– Finite: small pool. Entry/exit affects probability of new arrivals.
– Infinite: large pool. Entry/exit has no affect
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12-18
2. Arrival Process
Arrival Process
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12-19
Behavior of Arrivals
Most queuing models assume arriving customer is
patient customer.
Patient customers are people or machines wait in
queue until served and do not switch between lines.
Life and decision models are complicated by fact
people balk or renege.
Balking refers to customers who refuse to join queue
because it is too long to suit their needs.
Reneging customers enter queue but become
impatient and leave without completing transaction.
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12-20
Arrival Process
Static Dynamic
Appointments Price Accept/Reject Balking Reneging
Random
arrivals with
constant rate
Random arrival
rate varying
with time
Facility-
controlled
Customer-
exercised
control
Arrival
process
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12-21
Degree of Patience
No Way!
BALKING
No Way!
RENEGING
Line too long? Customer balks
(never enters queue)
Line too long? Customer reneges (abandons queue)
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12-22
Arrival
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12-23
Distribution of Arrivals
Arrival rate: mean (average) number of customers or units arriving per time period (e.g., per hour).
Constant—rate has no variance.
Variable—Poisson distribution frequently applied.
Inter-arrival time: mean (average) time between arrivals.
Variable—Exponential distribution frequently applied.
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12-24
Arrival process distributions
Two basic distributions
Exponential
Inter-arrival time: mean (average) time between arrivals
Continuous prob.function
Poisson
Arrival rate: mean (average) number of customers or units arriving per time period (e.g., per hour).
Rate has no variance.
Discrete probability function
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12-25
POISSON ARRIVAL PROCESS
REQUIRED CONDITIONS
Orderliness
at most one customer will arrive in any small time interval of t
Stationarity
for time intervals of equal length, the probability of n arrivals in the interval is constant
Independence
the time to the next arrival is independent of when the last arrival occurred
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12-26
NUMBER OF ARRIVALS IN TIME t
Assume = the average number of arrivals per a given interval of time (THE ARRIVAL RATE)
For a Poisson process, the probability of x arrivals in t time periods has the following Poisson distribution:
t t
0,1,2,... x,x!
et)( t) time in arrivalsP(x P(x)
2
tx
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12-27
Time Between Arrivals
The average time between arrivals is 1/
For a Poisson process, the time between arrivals (t) has the following exponential distribution:
22
t
t
/1
/1
e1)t(F
0t ,ef(t)
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12-28
Poisson and Exponential Equivalence
Poisson distribution for number of arrivals per hour (top view)
One-hour
1 2 0 1 interval
Arrival Arrivals Arrivals Arrival
62 min.
40 min.
123 min.
Exponential distribution of time between arrivals in minutes (bottom view)
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12-29
Distribution of Arrivals
Relation of Poisson/exponential distribution
Poisson is based on rate, mean is . Say that 15 customers arrive per hour, with the Poisson distribution, = 15 customers/hour.
Exponential is based on time. If 15 customers arrive per hour, the mean inter-arrival time is 4 minutes. This can be determined as 1/ = 1/15 customers/hour = 1/15 hour x 60 minutes/hour = 4 minutes.
Work the other way: inter-arrival time is 10 minutes or 1/6 hour. So 1/ = 1/6, thus = 6 customers/hour.
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12-30
Examples Poisson Distribution
for Arrival Times
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12-31
Distribution of Patient Interarrival Times (the mean times between arrivals is 2.4 minutes, which implies that λ=0.4167 arrival per minute)
0
10
20
30
40
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Patient interarrival time, minutes
Rela
tive f
req
uen
cy, %
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12-32
3. Queue Configuration
Queue
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12-33
Queue Characteristics
Length of queue either limited (finite) or unlimited
(infinite).
Queue limited when it cannot increase to infinite length
due to physical or other restrictions.
Queue defined as unlimited when size is unrestricted.
Assume queue lengths are unlimited.
Queue discipline. Rule by which customers in line
receive service.
Most systems use queue discipline known as first-in,
first-out rule (FIFO).
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12-34
Queue Configurations
Multiple Queue Single queue
Take a Number
Enter
3 4
8
2
6 10
12
11 5
7 9
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12-35
Number of Lines
Waiting lines systems can have single or multiple queues.
Single queues avoid jockeying behavior & all customers are served on a first-come, first-served fashion (perceived fairness is high)
Multiple queues are often used when arriving customers have differing characteristics (e.g.: paying with cash, less than 10 items, etc.) and can be readily segmented
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12-36
4. Queue Discipline
Queue
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12-37
Priority Rule
The priority rule determines which customer to
serve next.
Most service systems use the first-come, first-serve
(FCFS) rule. Other priority rules include:
Earliest promised due date (EDD)
Customer with the shortest expected
processing time (SPT)
Preemptive discipline: A rule that allows a
customer of higher priority to interrupt the service or
another customer.
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12-38
Customer Selection
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12-39
Queue
discipline
Static
(FCFS rule) Dynamic
selection
based on status
of queue
Selection based
on individual
customer
attributes
Number of
customers
waiting
Round robin Priority Preemptive
Processing time
of customers
(SPT or cµ rule)
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12-40
5. Service Process
Service process
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12-41
Service Facility Characteristics
Important to examine two basic properties:
(1) Configuration of service facility.
(2) Pattern of service times.
Number of service channels in queuing system is
number of servers.
Single-phase means customer receives service at only
one station before leaving system.
Multiphase implies two or more stops before leaving
system.
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12-42
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12-43
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12-44
Service Facility Structure
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12-45
Service Facility Arrangements
Service facility Server arrangement
Parking lot Self-serve
Cafeteria Servers in series
Toll booths Servers in parallel
Supermarket Self-serve, first stage; parallel servers, second stage
Hospital Many service centers in parallel and series, not all used by each patient
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12-46
Service Rate
Capacity of server—how many customers can be serviced per time-unit (e.g., per hour).
Constant—rate has no variance.
Variable—Poisson distribution frequently applied.
Service time: mean (average) time per service.
Constant—time has no variance.
Variable—negative exponential distribution frequently applied.
Note that the same Poisson/negative exponential relationship shown in arrival rate applies to the service rate.
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Service Pattern
Service Pattern
Constant Variable
Example: Items coming down an automated assembly line.
Example: People spending time shopping.
Same classification as arrival process
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The Queuing System
Queue Discipline
Length
Number of Lines & Line Structures
Service Time Distribution
Queuing System
Single Q, single S Single Q, multiple S Multiple Qs, multiple Ss, w/ Q switching
First in, first out (FIFO) First in, last out (LIFO) Various priorities
Constant inter-arrival times Random Event dependent
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Exit
May need service again (particularly affects finite populations).
Low probability of [immediate] re-service.
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Common Performance Measures
The average number of customers waiting in queue
The average number of customers in the system (multiphase systems)
The average waiting time in queue
The average time in the system
The system utilization rate (% of time servers are busy)
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Thrifty Car Rental
Queue Features Customer Counter Garage Car Wash
Calling
Population
Arrival
Process
Queue
Configuration
Queue
Discipline
Service
Process
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